The Defense: hype vs stats

[YoloinOhio]

I believe I heard that Rex's run defense in NY was top 5 his whole time in NY, other than 2014, when the whole team was crumbling...

the run D must have been pretty good last year since they finished 6th in total D, despite that poor secondary. Though I am sure everyone (except Marrone in the 1st game, doh) didn't bother much with trying to run the ball on them and just aired it out.

[Buftex]

the run D must have been pretty good last year since they finished 6th in total D, despite that poor secondary. Though I am sure everyone (except Marrone in the 1st game, doh) didn't bother much with trying to run the ball on them and just aired it out.

Actually, I just checked, I heard wrong... but still, the Jets run d has been mostly pretty good during the Rex years...the exception being 2012.

 

2014- #5 against the run

2013- #3

2012- #26

2011- #13

2010- #3

2009- #8

[YoloinOhio]

Actually, I just checked, I heard wrong... but still, the Jets run d has been mostly pretty good during the Rex years...the exception being 2012.

 

2014- #5 against the run

2013- #3

2012- #26

2011- #13

2010- #3

2009- #8

yes, it sure has. Wth happened in 2012, I wonder? Quite the outlier.

[Buftex]

yes, it sure has. Wth happened in 2012, I wonder? Quite the outlier.

Not sure exactly, my memory is starting to go.. but they were #2 against the pass that year, so I can only assume teams decided that pounding the ball on the ground was the only way to beat them...if you run the ball enough, eventually you will break one or two...looks like they gave up a handful of huge runs that season...

[YoloinOhio]

Not sure exactly, my memory is starting to go.. but they were #2 against the pass that year, so I can only assume teams decided that pounding the ball on the ground was the only way to beat them...if you run the ball enough, eventually you will break one or two...looks like they gave up a handful of huge runs that season...

ah - that reminds me - that was Pettine's last year as the DC. And, that's his defense right there in a nutshell. Edited June 25, 2015 by YoloinOhio

[GunnerBill]

ah - that reminds me - that was Pettine's last year as the DC. And, that's his defense right there in a nutshell.

 

Yep. I bet they had nice sack numbers though.

[Buftex]

 

Yep. I bet they had nice sack numbers though.

Actually, the Jets only had 30 sacks that season, 2012.

 

 

Not sure how to interpret these numbers, but just throwing it out there:

 

2012 Jets D- (under Pettine) 11 ints / 25 fumbles recovered= 36 turnonvers (30 sacks- 3 TD's) - 26th vs run / 2nd vs pass

2013 Bills D- (under Pettine) 23 ints / 23 fumbles recovered= 46 turnovers (57 sacks- 3TD's)- 28th vs run / 5th vs pass

2014 Bills D- (under Schwartz)- 19 ints / 20 fumbles recovered= 39 turnovers (54 sacks/ 1 TD)- 11th vs run / 3rd vs pass

 

Only conclusion I can really draw is that the Bills defense has a lot more talent than the 2012 Jets defense did....I think we will be fine.

Defense is not going to hold us back...

Edited June 25, 2015 by Buftex

[LeGOATski]

Actually, I just checked, I heard wrong... but still, the Jets run d has been mostly pretty good during the Rex years...the exception being 2012.

 

2014- #5 against the run

2013- #3

2012- #26

2011- #13

2010- #3

2009- #8

The key is the offense. Coincidentally, 2011 and 12 were the only years in that span that the Jets weren't in the top 10 for rushing.

 

If you can't ground them, you can't pound them.

Edited June 25, 2015 by LeGOATski

[billsfan89]

I expect a better form of Pettine's defense. In particular I expect them to be stronger against the run than when Pettine was here. I think you will see a lot of blitzes and man to man coverage. But I think that the defense overall will be great. Ryan knows how to coach a defense.

[LeGOATski]

I expect a better form of Pettine's defense. In particular I expect them to be stronger against the run than when Pettine was here. I think you will see a lot of blitzes and man to man coverage. But I think that the defense overall will be great. Ryan knows how to coach a defense.

As long as the Bills can run the ball.

 

With Roman's scheme and McCoy, Freddy, Felton, + the rest of the supporting cast, I don't see that being an issue.

 

Unless the O-line completely fails.

[GunnerBill]

Actually, the Jets only had 30 sacks that season, 2012.

 

 

Not sure how to interpret these numbers, but just throwing it out there:

 

2012 Jets D- (under Pettine) 11 ints / 25 fumbles recovered= 36 turnonvers (30 sacks- 3 TD's) - 26th vs run / 2nd vs pass

2013 Bills D- (under Pettine) 23 ints / 23 fumbles recovered= 46 turnovers (57 sacks- 3TD's)- 28th vs run / 5th vs pass

2014 Bills D- (under Schwartz)- 19 ints / 20 fumbles recovered= 39 turnovers (54 sacks/ 1 TD)- 11th vs run / 3rd vs pass

 

Only conclusion I can really draw is that the Bills defense has a lot more talent than the 2012 Jets defense did....I think we will be fine.

Defense is not going to hold us back...

 

I'd have expected them to have better sack numbers under Pet to be fair. But didn't Rex end up taking calling 3rd down D back away from him that year because he was overselling to play the pass too often?

[YoloinOhio]

 

I'd have expected them to have better sack numbers under Pet to be fair. But didn't Rex end up taking calling 3rd down D back away from him that year because he was overselling to play the pass too often?

i don't remember the specifics but I believe Rex did reign in the playcalling from Pettine twd the end.

[OCinBuffalo]

First why does the thread title say "stats" and not "stat"? The only stat I see here is points allowed.

 

A better title: "Arguments I don't like, subjectively disproved by a single stat...that I selected".

 

FireChan, on 12 Jun 2015 - 08:55 AM, said:

Geno could throw 3 INT's and have them down 17 in the first 5 minutes. Points "allowed" indeed.

Don't you mean EJ? Since, you know, EJ and Geno are "essentially the same QB" and all. I mean, some love to pick on EJ over the Texans game...but WTF...compare that to Geno vs. us? IF we are doing "one game means something" then saying EJ == Geno is beyond stupid.

However, I want to see 3 picks like that turned into 21, not 17, 14 or friggin 6, 90% of the time. Any game like that should be over, immediately. No leaving the Jets to hang around and make things interesting in the 3rd quarter.

QB Bills, on 12 Jun 2015 - 10:22 AM, said:

Schwartz isn't nearly as good a defensive coach as Rex. If the defense gets worse this year, I'll be shocked. Injuries and things happen, but all things being equal, the defense might be historically good this year.

Yep. This is my default expectation. I see no real reason why we can't be(statistically) on par with at least late 70s Steelers #s, early 2000s Ravens, or late 80s Giants. I do not know if we can reach 1976 Steelers or 1985 Bears level...which is greatest of all time territory. (And for the old timers, the Purple People Eaters, Packers, Rams, Dolphins, Chiefs, and whatever else was before my time. I only know about the Steel Curtain because I lived in Pittsburgh.)

 

IMHO, The last time the Bills had a defense of this caliber was 1988(lost AFC Conference game). I did see the 1985 Bears, and if we can get to even 80% of their level(statistically), we should be a serious playoff contender.

 

Why do I keep saying "statistically"? Us getting to 80% of the 1985 Bears is essentially getting to 100% status, because of the sheer number of "help the offense" rules changes since 1985.

 

The things Gary Fencick and Dan Hampton, used to do to people would be 15 yard penalties and massive fines today. Hampton used to suplex QBs.

What kind of suspension and fine does Godell hand out for play like that today?

[KingRex]

The thing which has me most excited about this D is simply the quality of the play demonstrated over the last couple of years by the players. I simply think that these players generally seem to be on an upswing or near the peak performance of NFL players at their positions on the DL.

 

IF the DBs and LBs continue to develop and improve and the DL players can hold on and continue to perform at or near the top of the AFC at their positions we amazingly might b able to post a shut out or two this season.

 

Specifically:

 

DL: If the team plays a 4-3, it simply boasts a DL where 3 of the 4 were legit Pro Bowlers and the one who did not make the PB has registered 10 sacks EACH of the last TWO years.

 

Are these individual players that (actually yes in M Williams and Dareus' cases) but even in the other two cases both 5th round pick K Williams and Hughes have demonstrated in multiple seasons that they have learned how to exploit the fact other teams need to dt 2 players to run their O. Can these players maintain their production? Tough to say yes, but looking at them individually:

 

Dareus- I 'd say he is on a great upswing in his career. He was very immature as a kid and appears simply through survival and getting older that on the brink of his second pro contract he is peaking. Unless he gets slowed by injury I expect him reasonably to improve

 

Mario- An older man now but at the top of his game. Moving to OLB in a 3-4 may both play to his strengths as by lining up all over the field opponents will have great difficulty scheming to dt him. Further, his speed and athleticism should actually allow him to drop back and cover in a zone blitz which can make his peers even more effective.

 

Kyle- He has actually been around long enuf that I think he is on the downhill side of his talents, however, KW has simply proven to be a much more dgged and talented player than the scouts thought when few argued he was more or less than the 5th rounder choice of the Bills and second DT oicked by the Bills. However, our first round pick faltered and never got a second offer from us KW filled in admirably. In fact, I remember him going through three blockers and getting a sack. I suspect these days are gone but with MW and DM demanding dt attention I like him one on one particularly if he gets ahold of a rookie opponent.

 

Hughes- it is simply amazing a player credited with 20 sacks the last two years still needs to prove himself to many. I think he can reasonably be expected to get better and taking on som added OLB duties in our 3-4 will do that

 

Back-ups- Charles/Bryant- While neither player can be mistaken for the starter, they are both solid back-ups capable of rotating in to give the starters a blow. They might even credibly provide 1 start if injury occurs. Carrington is a solid reacquisition whose demonstrated proficiency as a kick blocker provides a new weapon under new kicking rules. Wynn also is a solid back-up.

 

LBs-This clearly was the area of greatest concern for the Bills as the 2015 season approached particularly after the trade of Kiko Alonso for Sean McCoy (a good trade for the Bills O certainly but cost the Bills an LB who had sat out 2014. Add to this the likely switch to a 3-4 D requiring yet another LB. Yet, upon deeper consideration, on the face of it this switch provides at least 1 of the best D players in the NFL, Mario Williams to this unit. In addition, the configuration which Ryan plans to use has 10 sack/season the last two years Jerry Hughes moving to OLB and a review of specific players provides a lot of hope, some tangible and some intangible to LB potentially being a strength for the 2015 team.

 

Preston Brown- When push came to shove, what player led the well regarded Bills D in tackles to his credit last year? It was rookie LB Preston Brown who after 2 games forced his way into the starting line-up and didn't let go. Sophomore slumps happen, so nothing should be assumed, but also there are many reasons to not only reasonably hope but to expect Brown to have an even better year in his second year. If Brown he does improve he actually would be following the same path as the player who finished just behind Brown in tackles to his credit

 

Nigel Bradham- Bradham is not a star player (like a MWilliams or a Dareus) but there was no sophomore slump for this LB. I think though not a star he now can easily be judged as a solid starter. He is not an easily exploitable weakness and in fact can be a better player with great players around. He forced a couple of fumbles and registered a couple of sacks and even picked off a pass. As he enters the prime of his career his next step is not to become so great he demands a dt but instead be good enough to exploit the fact that MW and Dareus demand dts and that Gilmore and McKelvin can cover top WRs on their own.

 

Ty Powell appears to be one of the players who the coaches have spent a lot of time complimenting his play. Not a starter he, but seems like a reasonable back-up. One of the duals this camp looks like whether hometowner Gaines or new draftee Steward wins a spot on the roster for the future.LB development

 

Mario- His past outstanding performance as a DE speaks to simply not moving him. However, his athleticism, demand placed on an opposing O to have two blockers account for him speak to the benefit of moving him around between 4, 3, and two point stances or even flipping sides he is covering. Our switch to a 3-4 mandates thinking of him as an OLB to really challenge the opposing O.

 

Hughes- Likewise Hughes is no Mario. but his double digit # of sacks each of the last two years would encourage keeping him at DL, but junior-Mario is anathletic guy who on a team swtiching to a 3-4 can likely benefit from Hughes lining up often as an OLB.

 

Manny Lawson is a former starter.whose role has changed not because he is bad and getting worse, but simply because the competition from his teammates has been so good. I am pleased to have him as our plan B at OLB.

 

Buchanan was a nice pick-up as a reserve and even Randell Johnson deserves some PT.

 

DBs- The games that taught me a lot last year were when Gilmore went down for a game plus. The opposing WRs had not made much noise against Gilmore but it turned out that with Gilmore out the opposing QBs simply picked on Brooks (who actually I think is not that bad. Gilmore has had a few nicks which made it hard to think of him as a shutdown CB. However, I think tat as long as he can stay on the field he is gonna be the shut down corner we want.

 

McKelvin- Also has some injury issues but has demonstrsated he can cover with the best of them.

 

Graham is moving to S and deserves this shot is deserved by his play as a CB reserve. I did not feel scared when our stating CBs went down so even though he deserves the start, if our starting CBs go down then Graham should be our first choice.

 

Our 1st draft pick Robey seems like a reliable in empty backfield or other situations where we need another CB. I like his cover work.

 

Brooks, Cockrell and Butler are gonna make the last cut a hard one to make. ST work will make the difference..

 

S- Aaron Williams has become a leader of the Ss and now with Graham getting a shot the S role I like our starting 11 on D.

 

Williams is pressing to possibly start (making him a good back-up. Rambo had at least one brilliant sub game last year and Meeks we will see.

 

I predict at least one rare shutout this season and perhaps two.

 

.

[3rdand12]

The thing which has me most excited about this D is simply the quality of the play demonstrated over the last couple of years by the players. I simply think that these players generally seem to be on an upswing or near the peak performance of NFL players at their positions on the DL.

 

IF the DBs and LBs continue to develop and improve and the DL players can hold on and continue to perform at or near the top of the AFC at their positions we amazingly might b able to post a shut out or two this season.

 

Specifically:

 

DL: If the team plays a 4-3, it simply boasts a DL where 3 of the 4 were legit Pro Bowlers and the one who did not make the PB has registered 10 sacks EACH of the last TWO years.

 

Are these individual players that (actually yes in M Williams and Dareus' cases) but even in the other two cases both 5th round pick K Williams and Hughes have demonstrated in multiple seasons that they have learned how to exploit the fact other teams need to dt 2 players to run their O. Can these players maintain their production? Tough to say yes, but looking at them individually:

 

Dareus- I 'd say he is on a great upswing in his career. He was very immature as a kid and appears simply through survival and getting older that on the brink of his second pro contract he is peaking. Unless he gets slowed by injury I expect him reasonably to improve

 

Mario- An older man now but at the top of his game. Moving to OLB in a 3-4 may both play to his strengths as by lining up all over the field opponents will have great difficulty scheming to dt him. Further, his speed and athleticism should actually allow him to drop back and cover in a zone blitz which can make his peers even more effective.

 

Kyle- He has actually been around long enuf that I think he is on the downhill side of his talents, however, KW has simply proven to be a much more dgged and talented player than the scouts thought when few argued he was more or less than the 5th rounder choice of the Bills and second DT oicked by the Bills. However, our first round pick faltered and never got a second offer from us KW filled in admirably. In fact, I remember him going through three blockers and getting a sack. I suspect these days are gone but with MW and DM demanding dt attention I like him one on one particularly if he gets ahold of a rookie opponent.

 

Hughes- it is simply amazing a player credited with 20 sacks the last two years still needs to prove himself to many. I think he can reasonably be expected to get better and taking on som added OLB duties in our 3-4 will do that

 

Back-ups- Charles/Bryant- While neither player can be mistaken for the starter, they are both solid back-ups capable of rotating in to give the starters a blow. They might even credibly provide 1 start if injury occurs. Carrington is a solid reacquisition whose demonstrated proficiency as a kick blocker provides a new weapon under new kicking rules. Wynn also is a solid back-up.

 

LBs-This clearly was the area of greatest concern for the Bills as the 2015 season approached particularly after the trade of Kiko Alonso for Sean McCoy (a good trade for the Bills O certainly but cost the Bills an LB who had sat out 2014. Add to this the likely switch to a 3-4 D requiring yet another LB. Yet, upon deeper consideration, on the face of it this switch provides at least 1 of the best D players in the NFL, Mario Williams to this unit. In addition, the configuration which Ryan plans to use has 10 sack/season the last two years Jerry Hughes moving to OLB and a review of specific players provides a lot of hope, some tangible and some intangible to LB potentially being a strength for the 2015 team.

 

Preston Brown- When push came to shove, what player led the well regarded Bills D in tackles to his credit last year? It was rookie LB Preston Brown who after 2 games forced his way into the starting line-up and didn't let go. Sophomore slumps happen, so nothing should be assumed, but also there are many reasons to not only reasonably hope but to expect Brown to have an even better year in his second year. If Brown he does improve he actually would be following the same path as the player who finished just behind Brown in tackles to his credit

 

Nigel Bradham- Bradham is not a star player (like a MWilliams or a Dareus) but there was no sophomore slump for this LB. I think though not a star he now can easily be judged as a solid starter. He is not an easily exploitable weakness and in fact can be a better player with great players around. He forced a couple of fumbles and registered a couple of sacks and even picked off a pass. As he enters the prime of his career his next step is not to become so great he demands a dt but instead be good enough to exploit the fact that MW and Dareus demand dts and that Gilmore and McKelvin can cover top WRs on their own.

 

Ty Powell appears to be one of the players who the coaches have spent a lot of time complimenting his play. Not a starter he, but seems like a reasonable back-up. One of the duals this camp looks like whether hometowner Gaines or new draftee Steward wins a spot on the roster for the future.LB development

 

Mario- His past outstanding performance as a DE speaks to simply not moving him. However, his athleticism, demand placed on an opposing O to have two blockers account for him speak to the benefit of moving him around between 4, 3, and two point stances or even flipping sides he is covering. Our switch to a 3-4 mandates thinking of him as an OLB to really challenge the opposing O.

 

Hughes- Likewise Hughes is no Mario. but his double digit # of sacks each of the last two years would encourage keeping him at DL, but junior-Mario is anathletic guy who on a team swtiching to a 3-4 can likely benefit from Hughes lining up often as an OLB.

 

Manny Lawson is a former starter.whose role has changed not because he is bad and getting worse, but simply because the competition from his teammates has been so good. I am pleased to have him as our plan B at OLB.

 

Buchanan was a nice pick-up as a reserve and even Randell Johnson deserves some PT.

 

DBs- The games that taught me a lot last year were when Gilmore went down for a game plus. The opposing WRs had not made much noise against Gilmore but it turned out that with Gilmore out the opposing QBs simply picked on Brooks (who actually I think is not that bad. Gilmore has had a few nicks which made it hard to think of him as a shutdown CB. However, I think tat as long as he can stay on the field he is gonna be the shut down corner we want.

 

McKelvin- Also has some injury issues but has demonstrsated he can cover with the best of them.

 

Graham is moving to S and deserves this shot is deserved by his play as a CB reserve. I did not feel scared when our stating CBs went down so even though he deserves the start, if our starting CBs go down then Graham should be our first choice.

 

Our 1st draft pick Robey seems like a reliable in empty backfield or other situations where we need another CB. I like his cover work.

 

Brooks, Cockrell and Butler are gonna make the last cut a hard one to make. ST work will make the difference..

 

S- Aaron Williams has become a leader of the Ss and now with Graham getting a shot the S role I like our starting 11 on D.

 

Williams is pressing to possibly start (making him a good back-up. Rambo had at least one brilliant sub game last year and Meeks we will see.

 

I predict at least one rare shutout this season and perhaps two.

 

.

Thats a fine read right there Rex!

well done indeed. we can always critique ones opinion , but how many folks lay out their personal thinking process and perceptions as you have.

I might imagine over beers we could talk out the details and have a fine discussion , you and I.

 

if its one shutout its rare. if its two , well .. indeed!

 

i think this defense is poised. For all the right reasons. from top to bottom. Coaches to ball boys and back to Terry and Kim Pegula's fine children..

this Defense , as a Whole being , I feel , will show up and bring it all every minute of every game.

and thats how you become the most feared defense in the league.

Much like the 85 Bears.

 

i dont even care about "who dat qb" anymore.

 

sorry. i get fired up sometimes. but its an educated fired up.

and the nicely chilled koolaid

Edited June 30, 2015 by 3rdand12