NFL considers UB's research on schedule-making

[YoloinOhio]

http://espn.go.com/blog/buffalo-bills/post/_/id/18343/nfl-considers-ub-research-on-schedule-making Edited April 16, 2015 by YoloinOhio

[zonabb]

Best part is the pathetic statement that in addition to competitive issues, the NFL also considers television. At least they said what we always knew, that when it comes to setting criteria for the league on all levels, selling ads and maximizing profit always comes before the product on the field. Oh yeah, when you conduct research on schedule making as an academic endeavor Mr. Aiello, you probably aren't given stadium schedules and availability so you have to proceed without it. He tried to basically take a shot at undercutting their work by almost saying "And these idiots didn't even consider stadium availability."

 

My current refrain... the team I love plays in a league I detest as much as anything on this planet.

Edited April 16, 2015 by zonabb

[Kirby Jackson]

Best part is the pathetic statement that in addition to competitive issues, the NFL also considers television. At least they said what we always knew, that when it comes to setting criteria for the league on all levels, selling ads and maximizing profit always comes before the product on the field. Oh yeah, when you conduct research on schedule making as an academic endeavor Mr. Aiello, you probably aren't given stadium schedules and availability so you have to proceed without it. He tried to basically take a shot at undercutting their work by almost saying "And these idiots didn't even consider stadium availability."

 

My current refrain... the team I love plays in a league I detest as much as anything on this planet.

This is a great post.

[Tolstoy]

This analysis by two UB professors shows that some teams have received significant and disproportionate competitive disadvantages in scheduling by the NFL. The Bills have gotten the worst of it. It probably is accidental, or due to ratings calculations, but it can't help but make a difference in teams' records.

 

"The chart provides a summation of their most notable finding. Since the eight-division format began in 2002, some teams have played more than twice as many games against better-rested opponents -- either coming off a bye or a Thursday night game -- than others. The Bills had the most (29), and the Cincinnati Bengals were given the fewest (14). In 2013, the Bills had five such games; the division rival New England Patriots had none."

 

http://espn.go.com/blog/nflnation/post/_/id/166141/inside-slant-innovating-the-nfl-schedule

[NoSaint]

Though I do believe the stats on teams coming off a bye week show far less advantage than most fans think.

 

I recall it being almost a flat .500 when you dropped the Eagles crazy 10 year streak and something like 55% wins even with them last time I saw the stats

[Chandler#81]

It's a Conspiracy I tell Ya! A GD Conspiracy!! We've known it all along! Just wait til female refs decide our outcomes. We ain't seen Nothin' yet!

 

JK. Our players, Coaches, GM's and yes, our 1st owner had so much more to do our dismal showing than any Hex that may have been imposed at work here. May the Native Americans buried under RWS now RIP. We're finally ready!

[MattM]

Though I do believe the stats on teams coming off a bye week show far less advantage than most fans think.

I recall it being almost a flat .500 when you dropped the Eagles crazy 10 year streak and something like 55% wins even with them last time I saw the stats

They deal with that in the article. A 4% worse chance of winning against a team with more rest--although some years it was much higher (like 14% in 2010). Personally, I was ecstatic to see Whaley publicly shame the NFL on this crap a few years back, after we had 9 better rested opponents in two years....

[NoSaint]

They deal with that in the article. A 4% worse chance of winning against a team with more rest--although some years it was much higher (like 14% in 2010). Personally, I was ecstatic to see Whaley publicly shame the NFL on this crap a few years back, after we had 9 better rested opponents in two years....

Ah, yea. I remembered it being in that ballpark as we seem to hash this out every offseason. The flip side of a 4% average that is sometimes as high as 14% is its sometimes falls lower than +4 too.

 

I'll throw one of my amusing commentaries I've used before: how much of that 4% is a result of the skew of a bad team like buffalo accounting for the opponent in more of these games than anyone else?

 

But if the 4% skew is truly a fair estimation of the impact - were talking about what, something along the lines of 1 game difference in our record for the past decade? When quantified that way we come around to my point that the impact is less than we typically think when just spitballing the topic.

Edited April 18, 2015 by NoSaint

[BuffaloFan68]

Bottom line = the NFL should be NFE since it is rigged/set-up just like the WWE.

[Gugny]

Crappy teams lose lots of games.

[Beerball]

Crappy teams lose lots of games.

That einsteinenennn logic of yours never ceases to amaze.

[Mr. WEO]

This confirms all suspicions: the Bengals own Commissioner....

[BillsFan-4-Ever]

is this a dup thread?

yup

So it isn't our imagination: Unfair Scheduling

 

 

if it is a parity driven league one would expect parity in the scheduling no?

Edited April 18, 2015 by BillsFan-4-Ever

[BillsFan-4-Ever]

it was weird seeing the Bungles as having one of the most advantageous schedules.

2013 - "the rival New England Patriots had none."

[Keukasmallies]

Gee, the NFL favoring teams? What other NASCAR-like things will researchers discover about the NFL?

[8-8 Forever?]

Guys, this ain't the local rugby league or AAA baseball. This is big boy big money sports. If you want fair, go watch NY Penn league baseball in Delaware Park and forget the NFL. You get what your win loss record gets you. We have sucked forever, therefore no one wants to watch our team play, which means ad revenue falls, which means smaller TV deal, which means less $$ for everyone. The way it is. If you want fair, go watch something else. When the Bills were winning , like 100 years ago, they were all over MNF (home games), prime time Sunday , the works. Win and your in, Lose and you are out. The nature of the NFL. if you want fair, go watch the Bisons.

[BillsFan-4-Ever]

if it is a parity driven league one would expect parity in the scheduling no?

[What a Tuel]

Why not introduce the 40 or so nationally televised games as constants while building the schedule, and then introduce the formula that is supposed to make it fair? I mean they already know who is playing who, so it should be fairly easy to highlight the "big" games.

 

Just want them to release the schedule already! Something to look at while we wait.

[BillsFan-4-Ever]

the problem is that some of the "big" games turn out to be big flops.

 

TNF is scheduled for inter division games I think, depending on the teams you can get a rivalry game and still get crappola game

[What a Tuel]

the problem is that some of the "big" games turn out to be big flops.

 

TNF is scheduled for inter division games I think, depending on the teams you can get a rivalry game and still get crappola game

 

Thats the thing though. You've got all the Thursday Night games layed out because every team gets one. Throw in the Monday night games and the formula should still work. Have a computer determine (like these researchers did) how many "extra rest" games these teams are going up against. If one team has 5, and another had 0, then switch a few things around until everyone has a nice even 3 or a margin of error of + or - one. It shouldn't ever be as bad as 5-0.

 

Edit: They can have their cake and eat it too in this case. I think they are just being lazy about it, and haven't put a great deal of thought into this as they have tv ratings. That's just my ill informed opinion though.

Edited April 18, 2015 by What a Tuel