Russell Wilson and the Seahawks negotiations (update:signed)

[Wayne Cubed]

I keep hearing the Seattle run game and D are why Wilson is good. So I have a few observations that strongly seem to suggest otherwise:

 

1. Seattle was 7-9 both the 2 season prior to Wilson with a tough D and Lynch.

2. Seattle has won 11 games, 13 games and 12 games in the 3 years with Wilson for an average of 12 wins a year, thats 5 more than before him.

3. Marshawn Lynch career YPC before Wilson (Buffalo and 2 years in Seattle) is 3.99 YPC. In 2 years in Seattle, it was 3.95 YPC before Wilson alone.

4. Marshawn Lynch career YPC with Wilson in Seattle for 3 years is 4.65 YPC...a dramatic increase.

5. Seattle before Wilson...no playoffs in 4 years. 2 of those years with a tough D, Lynch and Pete. Seattle with Wilson, 3 playoffs, 2 Super Bowl Appearances and Super Bowl trophy for a team that rarely sniffs the Super Bowl.

6. Wilson has had the best or close to the best start in just about every major passing statistic for a QBs first 3 years in NFL history.

7. He has a playoff passer rating over 100 in 2 of the 3 years and one over 90.

 

How can anyone deny the direct impact this kid has had on this team? Its so easy to say its the team around him, but if you look at what the same team around him did before him and after its undeniable the impact he has had. In fact, the opposite seems to be true...Lynch averaged UNDER 4 yards on his career as a running back until Wilson came to town and Lynch put together the best 3 year stretch of his career.

 

I would pay that man if I was Seattle.

 

Really? Ok lets look at the defense before and after he arrived, seeing as you only decided to focus on Lynch.

 

In 2010, 2 years before Wilson arrived and Pete Carroll's first year, the defense gave up 4.2 YPC in the running game. That was 21st in the NFL. They gave up 249 YPG in the air, good for 27th in the NFL and a total yards per game of 368, which was also 27th. They were ranked 29th against the pass and 17th against the run. They allowed 25.4 points per game, 25th in the NFL. It's important to note that both Kam Chancellor and Earl Thomas were drafted and Thomas, although a rookie, was the pest player on that defense. Far from a great defense.

In 2011, Richard Sherman and KJ Wright were drafted. Thomas and Chancellor were no longer rookies. Alan Branch was a nice pick up along the DL. Again, building towards greatness. They improved their YPC against to 3.8, good for 4th in the NFL and their pass yards per game improved to 219 which was 11th. Their PPG allowed improved to 19.1, which was 7th. They were the 9th ranked defense. Again, this was good, not quite great yet. Would you call the San Diego Chargers defense from 2014 great? They were ranked 9th.

By 2012, just about the entire defense had been rebuilt. They drafted another key defensive piece in Bruce Irvin. All of their statistical areas improved. They were ranked 6th against the pass and 10th against the run. Their overall defensive ranking was 4th.

2013 is the year it all came together. Cliff Avril and Michael Bennett were both picked up. This defense was truly great. 14.4 PPG. They only gave up 20 TD's all season, 16 pass and 4 rushing. That's crazy. They allowed 172 passing yards a game. Again, ridiculous, they only allowed one 300 yard passer. They had 39 turnovers including 28 interceptions. This defense was great.

To me this looks like the defense was building towards greatness as Russell Wilson arrived. Russell Wilson didn't just show up to a team with a great tough defense and he was all that was needed. I'm sorry the facts just don't support that.

[1billsfan]

And start who at QB? Teams with quality QBs are rarely go to let them slip away. Wilson's agent can posture all he wants about Wilson deserving to be the highest paid player in the league and the Seahawks can posture all they want about them making him play out his contract/tagging him/trading him, but the reality is that it is in the best interest of both sides to get a reasonably fair deal done. That's almost certainly what will happen.

 

As for a bunch of big named QBs making it to free agency this offseason - I'll believe it when I see it. Maybe one makes it. Maybe.

 

If Wilson's agent isn't postering I'd say "see ya!".

 

The Seahawks were still 4-1 in games when Wilson was under 70 in QB rating. If I'm the Seahawks, I think the bigger gamble is betting on Wilson living up to that contract and making up for losing so many great players due to cap problems the next few years.

 

IMO, even if they didn't get Rivers or E. Manning. The worst of the QBs available would be guys like Bradford, Kaepernick, Foles, Cutler or RGIII. Plus, you'd have two 1st round picks in your back pocket through the trade to a team like the Browns. I kind of like the idea of signing a veteran and drafting a QB for the future in 2016. The 2016 offseason QB market is going to be the best one ever IMO.

 

I just don't see Wilson as an elite QB who has the ability to carry a team on his back like Brees, Rodgers or Brady. Therefore I would not give him a salary that would blow up the cap for years.

[NoSaint]

I keep hearing the Seattle run game and D are why Wilson is good. So I have a few observations that strongly seem to suggest otherwise:

 

1. Seattle was 7-9 both the 2 season prior to Wilson with a tough D and Lynch.

2. Seattle has won 11 games, 13 games and 12 games in the 3 years with Wilson for an average of 12 wins a year, thats 5 more than before him.

3. Marshawn Lynch career YPC before Wilson (Buffalo and 2 years in Seattle) is 3.99 YPC. In 2 years in Seattle, it was 3.95 YPC before Wilson alone.

4. Marshawn Lynch career YPC with Wilson in Seattle for 3 years is 4.65 YPC...a dramatic increase.

5. Seattle before Wilson...no playoffs in 4 years. 2 of those years with a tough D, Lynch and Pete. Seattle with Wilson, 3 playoffs, 2 Super Bowl Appearances and Super Bowl trophy for a team that rarely sniffs the Super Bowl.

6. Wilson has had the best or close to the best start in just about every major passing statistic for a QBs first 3 years in NFL history.

7. He has a playoff passer rating over 100 in 2 of the 3 years and one over 90.

 

How can anyone deny the direct impact this kid has had on this team? Its so easy to say its the team around him, but if you look at what the same team around him did before him and after its undeniable the impact he has had. In fact, the opposite seems to be true...Lynch averaged UNDER 4 yards on his career as a running back until Wilson came to town and Lynch put together the best 3 year stretch of his career.

 

I would pay that man if I was Seattle.

So how much of that jump "with the same team" do you think was Wilson vs this run of drafting coming together and these guys maturing? To argue that the team 3 years prior was the same comes across as false. Nearly every team goes through major upheaval in 3 years yet alone your 6 year span. He's a big piece but to act like he's the only change? Come on....

 

this of course ignoring free agency too.

 

2010: Russell Okung, Earl Thomas, Golden Tate, Walter Thurmond, Kam Chancellor, Anthony McCoy and Jameson Konz.

2011: James Carpenter, John Moffitt, K.J. Wright, Richard Sherman, Byron Maxwell and Malcolm Smith

2012: Bruce Irvin, Bobby Wagner, Russell Wilson, Robert Turbin, Jaye Howard, Korey Toomer, Jeremy Lane, Winston Guy, J.R. Sweezy and Greg Scruggs

[BarleyNY]

If Wilson's agent isn't postering I'd say "see ya!".

 

The Seahawks were still 4-1 in games when Wilson was under 70 in QB rating. If I'm the Seahawks, I think the bigger gamble is betting on Wilson living up to that contract and making up for losing so many great players due to cap problems the next few years.

 

IMO, even if they didn't get Rivers or E. Manning. The worst of the QBs available would be guys like Bradford, Kaepernick, Foles, Cutler or RGIII. Plus, you'd have two 1st round picks in your back pocket through the trade to a team like the Browns. I kind of like the idea of signing a veteran and drafting a QB for the future in 2016. The 2016 offseason QB market is going to be the best one ever IMO.

 

I just don't see Wilson as an elite QB who has the ability to carry a team on his back like Brees, Rodgers or Brady. Therefore I would not give him a salary that would blow up the cap for years.

I went to OTC to see what Seattle had in available cap space for the coming years and found a nice write up on the likely Wilson contract. They should have sufficient space to pay Wilson and keep their team intact, by the way. It's worth a read:

 

http://overthecap.com

[GunnerBill]

I went to OTC to see what Seattle had in available cap space for the coming years and found a nice write up on the likely Wilson contract. They should have sufficient space to pay Wilson and keep their team intact, by the way. It's worth a read:

 

http://overthecap.com

 

They can keep their cornerstones. What they have to be able to do is continue to let starters who are not cornerstones walk.... I'm think letting their starting corner opposite Sherman walk two years in a row (Browner then Maxwell) and letting their nickel corner Walter Thurmond walk along with a couple of veterans on the D-Line that went to Jacksonville. The thing is they keep drafting solidly they can keep recycling guys around the cornerstones.

 

It is the same kind of model I think Whaley wants to pursue here in Buffalo. You lock down your Gilmore, Dareus types and the solid starters around them the likes of Spikes ans Searcy you have to le walk when the price isn't right. We have drafted better in recent years but nowhere near as well as the Seahawks.

[Canadian Bills Fan]

Wilson tosses a figure out there....

 

$25 Million

 

 

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2015/06/29/russell-wilson-mentions-a-figure/

 

 

 

CBF

[BillsFan-4-Ever]

Peton Manning a SB Champ...you left that one out.

 

Wilson and Flacco are an order of magnitude better than Dilfer. You would have sounded smarter comparing Dilfer to McMahon.

No, I did not. Manning is a "passing" QB. RW is not in and as mentioned in the elite class.

 

I said RW and JF were better than Dilfer so why are you arguing (or is it trolling)

Edited June 30, 2015 by BillsFan-4-Ever

[What a Tuel]

I keep hearing the Seattle run game and D are why Wilson is good. So I have a few observations that strongly seem to suggest otherwise:

 

1. Seattle was 7-9 both the 2 season prior to Wilson with a tough D and Lynch.

2. Seattle has won 11 games, 13 games and 12 games in the 3 years with Wilson for an average of 12 wins a year, thats 5 more than before him.

3. Marshawn Lynch career YPC before Wilson (Buffalo and 2 years in Seattle) is 3.99 YPC. In 2 years in Seattle, it was 3.95 YPC before Wilson alone.

4. Marshawn Lynch career YPC with Wilson in Seattle for 3 years is 4.65 YPC...a dramatic increase.

5. Seattle before Wilson...no playoffs in 4 years. 2 of those years with a tough D, Lynch and Pete. Seattle with Wilson, 3 playoffs, 2 Super Bowl Appearances and Super Bowl trophy for a team that rarely sniffs the Super Bowl.

6. Wilson has had the best or close to the best start in just about every major passing statistic for a QBs first 3 years in NFL history.

7. He has a playoff passer rating over 100 in 2 of the 3 years and one over 90.

 

How can anyone deny the direct impact this kid has had on this team? Its so easy to say its the team around him, but if you look at what the same team around him did before him and after its undeniable the impact he has had. In fact, the opposite seems to be true...Lynch averaged UNDER 4 yards on his career as a running back until Wilson came to town and Lynch put together the best 3 year stretch of his career.

 

I would pay that man if I was Seattle.

 

Kyle Orton came in and turned a 6-10 team into a 9-7 team am I right? Just saying there is probably more to Seattle's success than Russell Wilson arriving to save the day. A good QB is certainly a huge step up, especially from what they used in 2010-11 (Tarvaris Jackson and Matt Hasselbeck). That doesn't make him elite. I mean isn't that what we are looking for to push us over the edge?

 

 

 

 

Good stuff (the minor playoff error aside). If you don't put up huge regular season numbers I guess you can't be considered lite around these parts.

 

 

They aren't "huge" numbers, they are what decent QB's put up these days. Granted Wilson just hasn't had the attempts yet, but why we give him the benefit of the doubt that he would perform at that level with that much work is beyond me.

Edited June 30, 2015 by What a Tuel

[The Big Cat]

 

Really? Ok lets look at the defense before and after he arrived, seeing as you only decided to focus on Lynch.

 

 

In 2010, 2 years before Wilson arrived and Pete Carroll's first year, the defense gave up 4.2 YPC in the running game. That was 21st in the NFL. They gave up 249 YPG in the air, good for 27th in the NFL and a total yards per game of 368, which was also 27th. They were ranked 29th against the pass and 17th against the run. They allowed 25.4 points per game, 25th in the NFL. It's important to note that both Kam Chancellor and Earl Thomas were drafted and Thomas, although a rookie, was the pest player on that defense. Far from a great defense.

 

In 2011, Richard Sherman and KJ Wright were drafted. Thomas and Chancellor were no longer rookies. Alan Branch was a nice pick up along the DL. Again, building towards greatness. They improved their YPC against to 3.8, good for 4th in the NFL and their pass yards per game improved to 219 which was 11th. Their PPG allowed improved to 19.1, which was 7th. They were the 9th ranked defense. Again, this was good, not quite great yet. Would you call the San Diego Chargers defense from 2014 great? They were ranked 9th.

 

By 2012, just about the entire defense had been rebuilt. They drafted another key defensive piece in Bruce Irvin. All of their statistical areas improved. They were ranked 6th against the pass and 10th against the run. Their overall defensive ranking was 4th.

 

2013 is the year it all came together. Cliff Avril and Michael Bennett were both picked up. This defense was truly great. 14.4 PPG. They only gave up 20 TD's all season, 16 pass and 4 rushing. That's crazy. They allowed 172 passing yards a game. Again, ridiculous, they only allowed one 300 yard passer. They had 39 turnovers including 28 interceptions. This defense was great.

 

To me this looks like the defense was building towards greatness as Russell Wilson arrived. Russell Wilson didn't just show up to a team with a great tough defense and he was all that was needed. I'm sorry the facts just don't support that.

 

It's really all that had to be said. Deflates his entire premise.

Edited June 30, 2015 by The Big Cat

[YoloinOhio]

Article in Forbes today:

 

Is Russell Wilson Worth $25 Million A Year?

 

http://www.forbes.com/sites/kurtbadenhausen/2015/06/30/is-russell-wilson-worth-25-million-a-year/?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

Also, here is his 1:1 interview from last night on ESPN -

 

http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=13172152

[NoSaint]

 

Really? Ok lets look at the defense before and after he arrived, seeing as you only decided to focus on Lynch.....

 

(shortened for brevity in the quote box)

 

.....To me this looks like the defense was building towards greatness as Russell Wilson arrived. Russell Wilson didn't just show up to a team with a great tough defense and he was all that was needed. I'm sorry the facts just don't support that.

i missed your post until it was quoted -- did a much better job than my cliffnotes reply at making the point i was trying to fire off quickly. Edited June 30, 2015 by NoSaint

[Kelly the Dog]

Article in Forbes today:

 

 

Is Russell Wilson Worth $25 Million A Year?

 

http://www.forbes.com/sites/kurtbadenhausen/2015/06/30/is-russell-wilson-worth-25-million-a-year/?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

Also, here is his 1:1 interview from last night on ESPN -

 

http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=13172152

So spotrac says about 22 and Forbes closer to 25. People also have to take into consideration how great a face of the franchise the guy is and how beloved he is in Seattle. It matters in negotiations.

 

For the record I don't think he's worth it only because I don't think anyone in the NFL should be paid that much and it hurts the rest of the team. I wish there was some way to cap a player's salary as a percentage of the cap and keep it at 18-20 m maybe. But looking at it another way, and how valuable a franchise QB is to a team, then he is well worth it.

[YoloinOhio]

So spotrac says about 22 and Forbes closer to 25. People also have to take into consideration how great a face of the franchise the guy is and how beloved he is in Seattle. It matters in negotiations.

 

For the record I don't think he's worth it only because I don't think anyone in the NFL should be paid that much and it hurts the rest of the team. I wish there was some way to cap a player's salary as a percentage of the cap and keep it at 18-20 m maybe. But looking at it another way, and how valuable a franchise QB is to a team, then he is well worth it.

I think it was Wilson himself who threw the 25m/yr number out there last night

[Kelly the Dog]

I think it was Wilson himself who threw the 25m/yr number out there last night

Yeah he did and the Forbes article referenced it. That's why they said they think he will get closer to the 25. I imagine and predict it will end up right around the Rodgers number but a little more guaranteed for bragging purposes.

[YoloinOhio]

Yeah he did and the Forbes article referenced it. That's why they said they think he will get closer to the 25. I imagine and predict it will end up right around the Rodgers number but a little more guaranteed for bragging purposes.

I understand him wanting to maximize his earning potential. I do. Especially since he is already 26 and this will could be his biggest contract, and he probably feels like he should be receiving back pay for the last 3 years of accomplishments. But, there's also placing a value on the ability to maintain a long-term contender and take a few mill less to do so, while still becoming ultra rich. I

[Kelly the Dog]

I understand him wanting to maximize his earning potential. I do. Especially since he is already 26 and this will could be his biggest contract, and he probably feels like he should be receiving back pay for the last 3 years of accomplishments. But, there's also placing a value on the ability to maintain a long-term contender and take a few mill less to do so, while still becoming ultra rich. I

Yeah. I totally understand that. Jerry Hughes did it IMO. But there is a problem with doing it that isn't talked about much, and which makes it harder for a big time well known player to do it. Other players around the league would hate you and no one wants that. If Russell Wilson took 20m instead of 25 he could get, all teams would use that against all new star qbs in their negotiations, saying Russell Wilson is a team player, why aren't you? It doesnt even have to be a QB.

 

Sure there have been some hometown discounts but not many. Hughes, for instance, took the known money before he hit free agency. While I think he could have been paid 11 m by another team we don't know that to be true. Players would resent any other player taking a substantial discount in a high profile negotiation because it lessens their own bargaining power for making what they are worth and deserve.

[NoSaint]

So spotrac says about 22 and Forbes closer to 25. People also have to take into consideration how great a face of the franchise the guy is and how beloved he is in Seattle. It matters in negotiations.

 

For the record I don't think he's worth it only because I don't think anyone in the NFL should be paid that much and it hurts the rest of the team. I wish there was some way to cap a player's salary as a percentage of the cap and keep it at 18-20 m maybe. But looking at it another way, and how valuable a franchise QB is to a team, then he is well worth it.

18-20 seems kind of arbitrary with projections of the cap shooting up 30+ million from the time he was drafted to his signing next year.

 

if you capped it at a percentage, that raise in cap would bring all those 18-20m guys into the low to mid 20s we are discussing. i think its important to note how fast the cap has gone from 123m in 2013, to projections of 155m or higher next year as a real possibility. get used to numbers sounding crazy, but when you back out percentages it still looking similar to previous years discussions.

Edited June 30, 2015 by NoSaint

[YoloinOhio]

Yeah. I totally understand that. Jerry Hughes did it IMO. But there is a problem with doing it that isn't talked about much, and which makes it harder for a big time well known player to do it. Other players around the league would hate you and no one wants that. If Russell Wilson took 20m instead of 25 he could get, all teams would use that against all new star qbs in their negotiations, saying Russell Wilson is a team player, why aren't you? It doesnt even have to be a QB.

 

Sure there have been some hometown discounts but not many. Hughes, for instance, took the known money before he hit free agency. While I think he could have been paid 11 m by another team we don't know that to be true. Players would resent any other player taking a substantial discount in a high profile negotiation because it lessens their own bargaining power for making what they are worth and deserve.

yeah, I forgot about that part.

[Kelly the Dog]

18-20 seems kind of arbitrary with projections of the cap shooting up 30+ million from the time he was drafted to his signing next year.

if you capped it at a percentage, that raise in cap would bring all those 18-20m guys into the low to mid 20s we are discussing. i think its important to note how fast the cap has gone from 123m in 2013, to projections of 155m or higher next year as a real possibility. get used to numbers sounding crazy, but when you back out percentages it still looking similar to previous years discussions.

I meant 18-20 with what the cap is now. So it would go up accordingly but other players would, too. I think over 20 now, and something like 25 now is really out of whack.

[NoSaint]

 

I meant 18-20 with what the cap is now. So it would go up accordingly but other players would, too. I think over 20 now, and something like 25 now is really out of whack.

 

20 would be like 12-13% of the projected cap next year.

 

is that out of line with the top QB pay earlier?

 

[qoute]http://nflcommunications.com/2010/02/24/year-by-year-salary-cap/

 

ear Maximum Team Salary

2009 $123 million

2008 $116 million

2007 $109 million

2006 $102 million

2005 $85.5 million

2004 $80.582 million

2003 $75.007 million

2002 $71.101 million

2001 $67.405 million

2000 $62.172 million

1999 $57.288 million

1998 $52.388 million

1997 $41.454 million

1996 $40.753 million

1995 $37.1 million

1994 $34.608 million

 

Random article on compensation 10 years ago that talks about a lot of 2 year total pay (not cap hits, so its tough to do apples to apples) but a bunch of guys in that ballpark, seemingly:

 

 

http://a.espncdn.com/nfl/columns/pasquarelli_len/1567356.html

 

The quarterbacks who will bank $12 million or more in that period: Manning, $19.025 million; Donovan McNabb (Philadelphia), $19.006 million; Steve McNair (Tennessee), $16.056 million; David Carr (Houston), $14.175 million; Kurt Warner (St. Louis), $13.1 million; Tom Brady (New England), $13.009 million; Mark Brunell (Jacksonville), $13.003 million; Michael Vick (Atlanta), $12.309 million; Trent Green (Kansas City), $12.155 million; and Jake Plummer (Denver), $12.04 million.

note those are 2 year cash payments, not cap hits, so its might be off on some guys -- it also omits Jeff Garcia at 20m