st pete gogolak Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Or to put it another way, will we actually use our analytics department? Other than when the Bills played the Jets, I didn't follow the Jets much and I honestly don't know how aggressive Ryan was in 4th and short situations. I wasn't a Marrone fan but the thing that I hated about him the most was the ultra-conservative decisions on fourth and short. It was like he was in a time warp from 1955 and field position was the only possible consideration, even when playing high powered offenses like the Pats. I'm not an analytics expert but my understanding is that the stats are overwhelming when it is 4th and short in your opponents territory you go for it. In addition to the pure stats approach, I believe that habitually going for it (1) gives your team a mindset that you're out to win the game (the Tuesday Morning QB Greg Easterbrook theory) and (2) gives you more options on play calling if you know you are going to go for it on fourth and short, meaning you can run the ball on 3rd and 3 or 3rd and 4. I would love for the Bills to be the honest to God first NFL team to employ Moneyball analysis to football. Someone's going to do it eventually. Might as well be us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CardinalScotts Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 what's missing is the result of the punts......the strategy worked often, punt deep in opponents end 3 and out follows ball back where we were roughly with no risk of "going" for it. As per usual when we lose WGR looks anywhere but where the problem is instead chosing for what makes good radio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
berndogg Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Googling "Rex Ryan 4th down" was actually the first thing I did when Rex Ryan was hired because Gailey and Marrone's conservativeness has driven me to drink (more) heavily over the past few years and I truly believe it has cost us wins. The search results weren't particularly promising http://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/25/upshot/how-rex-ryan-can-save-his-job-and-help-reinvent-the-nfl.html?_r=0&abt=0002&abg=1. I know that Gailey never got it because he's old and out of touch and Marrone is too stubborn/arrogant to listen to any info that conflicts with his saintly opinions. Really hope Rex sees the light. As the article says most coaches are still way too conservative and a coach that uses the analytics in making his decisions would have a huge competitive advantage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillsFan-4-Ever Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 when was the last time the Bills tried a fake punt? > 5 years? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zow2 Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 If you think REx is going for it on every 4th and 1 situation in opponents territory, people will be very disappointed. I'd like to see it more often, sure...but it's not an automatic and depending on the game situation, punting and pinning the other team deep is not a terrible option. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoSaint Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 If you think REx is going for it on every 4th and 1 situation in opponents territory, people will be very disappointed. I'd like to see it more often, sure...but it's not an automatic and depending on the game situation, punting and pinning the other team deep is not a terrible option. the expected outcome, even if you happen to successfully pin the other team, points towards risking the 4th down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metzelaars_lives Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 (edited) what's missing is the result of the punts......the strategy worked often, punt deep in opponents end 3 and out follows ball back where we were roughly with no risk of "going" for it. As per usual when we lose WGR looks anywhere but where the problem is instead chosing for what makes good radio. Yes. Exactly what you just described happened in Denver this season. We got the ball right back where we decided not to go for it on 4th and 2 down by two scores with five minutes left- except it was two minutes later and we burned all three of our time outs, forcing us to attempt an onside kick when we did score. What drove me nuts about Marrone was when he punted in situations like that where we probably weren't going to win anyway. Same thing in the game at Miami- down by two scores with, what, 8 minutes left? the expected outcome, even if you happen to successfully pin the other team, points towards risking the 4th down Well stated. Edited January 14, 2015 by metzelaars_lives Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prissythecat Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 If you have a turnstile offensive line and aging or ineffective RBs with a defense that regularly can stop an opponent, you may want to lean towards punting despite what stats say. On the other hand, if you had a stout offensive line like Dallas with a Demarco Murray with a questionable defense, you may lean towards going for it on 4th and 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctk232 Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 I'd much rather see an offense that converts on 3rd down and scores more than 3 points in the redzone than an aggressive 4th down strategy. Invariably, there will be 4th down situations, sure, and we will go for it on some. But we'll be more aggressive overall, that much was evident from the presser. Time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
34-78-83 Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 what's missing is the result of the punts......the strategy worked often, punt deep in opponents end 3 and out follows ball back where we were roughly with no risk of "going" for it. As per usual when we lose WGR looks anywhere but where the problem is instead chosing for what makes good radio. This ^^^^ The "proven" analytics is not actually proven... It's results are looked at in a vacuum and are not NECESSARILY valid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Captain Caveman Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 (edited) Screw that, let's make it on third down. Edited January 14, 2015 by Captain Caveman Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
All_Pro_Bills Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 (edited) Yes. Exactly what you just described happened in Denver this season. We got the ball right back where we decided not to go for it on 4th and 2 down by two scores with five minutes left- except it was two minutes later and we burned all three of our time outs, forcing us to attempt an onside kick when we did score. What drove me nuts about Marrone was when he punted in situations like that where we probably weren't going to win anyway. Same thing in the game at Miami- down by two scores with, what, 8 minutes left? Well stated. Exactly. In those situations you have to weigh the benefits of playing for field position vs. the cost of losing time on the game clock by surrendering the ball to the opponent by punting. Sure your defense might pull off a 3 and out but the cost might be using all your timeouts or around 3 minutes on the game clock. And when you get the ball back, unless you get a great return or a blocked punt, your offense will be starting at no better field position then you faced on the 4th and 1. Net being you're faced with the exact same problem with less time to solve it. In the Thursday night Miami game when Marrone decided to punt given the score, time remaining, the situation, after the punt I turned off the game and went to bed. I figured if the HC wasn't interested in trying to win the game then why stay up any later than I had to at that point. I wonder how many of the players felt the same way? Edited January 14, 2015 by All_Pro_Bills Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doc Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 "We will not build our offensive game plans around our punter, I'll tell you that." - Rex Ryan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rivermont Mike Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 During his presser, he said (paraphrasing) that they would try a fake punt on 4th and 13 with three minutes left in the game and up by three. Watch the rebroadcast and you'll hear him say it. So the answer to the OP is "oh HELL no." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
berndogg Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 This ^^^^ The "proven" analytics is not actually proven... It's results are looked at in a vacuum and are not NECESSARILY valid. The "analytics don't apply to this particular situation" fallacy is what leads even coaches that are aware of the numbers to ignore them and go with conventional wisdom. The fact is there are statistics that account for the specific teams and their average yards per play gained and allowed in 3rd/4th and short situations. Those stats still favored going for it in all of the controversial 4th down situations (KC, Mia, Den, etc) where Moron punted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillsFan-4-Ever Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 "We will not build our offensive game plans around our punter, I'll tell you that." - Rex Ryan +100 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WrecksRyan Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 I can tell you guys all you want to know about Rex. Ask away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheFunPolice Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 I can tell you guys all you want to know about Rex. Ask away. 1) favorite ice cream flavor 2) favorite Chinese takeout item 3) favorite ghost hunting TV show Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WrecksRyan Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 I can tell you guys all you want to know about Rex. Ask away. 1) favorite ice cream flavor 2) favorite Chinese takeout item 3) favorite ghost hunting TV show Touché! Of course, I meant as in how crappy a head coach he is. He's a great motivator and a near genius with defensive schemes, but he always forgets that there are three aspects to a football team, and the next game management mistake he learns from will be his first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheFunPolice Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Touché! Of course, I meant as in how crappy a head coach he is. He's a great motivator and a near genius with defensive schemes, but he always forgets that there are three aspects to a football team, and the next game management mistake he learns from will be his first. Bummer... I was hoping for those answers. I already know he's a great football mind! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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