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Predict the starting quarterback for week 1..


BillsFan130

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I keep seeing this argument, that accuracy can't be coached/QBs can't improve accuracy. So for research sake, I want to see what we got here... this is not to say EJ will or won't improve, but rather, is it possible that he can?

 

P. Manning - 1st year 56.7%, 2nd year 62.1%, high year, 68.8% (12th season), Imrovement 12.1%

T. Brady - 1st year 63.9%, 2nd-4th years, went from 62% down to 60%, high year 68.9% (8th season), Improvement 5-8.9%

D. Brees - 1st year 60.8%, 2nd year 57.6%, high year 70.6% (9th season), Improvement 9.8-13%

E. Manning - 1st year 48.2%, 2nd year 52.8%, high year 63.1% (11th season), Improvement 14.9%

B. Roethlisberger - 1st year 66.4%, 3rd year 59.9%, high year 67.1 (11th season), Improvement 0.7-7.2%

A. Smith - 1st year 50.9%, 3rd year 48.7%, high year 70.2% (7th season), Improvement 9.3-21.5%

 

Those are just a handful of names... Again this isn't to say EJ will improve with accuracy, but it does show that accuracy can improve. I suppose to be more accurate, I should have taken accuracy for the first 2-3 seasons averaged, and compared them to 2-3 most recent/prime seasons of QBs... hm.

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All through training camp we'll hear shaky things about EJ and Tuel and we'll see it in the preseason games. As that mounting sense of dread hits us the team will come out of nowhere and days before the start of the season we'll throw a bunch of money on a 1 year contract with an option to JaMarcus Rusell, a vet with game experience. Rinse, repeat.

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I keep seeing this argument, that accuracy can't be coached/QBs can't improve accuracy. So for research sake, I want to see what we got here... this is not to say EJ will or won't improve, but rather, is it possible that he can?

 

P. Manning - 1st year 56.7%, 2nd year 62.1%, high year, 68.8% (12th season), Imrovement 12.1%

T. Brady - 1st year 63.9%, 2nd-4th years, went from 62% down to 60%, high year 68.9% (8th season), Improvement 5-8.9%

D. Brees - 1st year 60.8%, 2nd year 57.6%, high year 70.6% (9th season), Improvement 9.8-13%

E. Manning - 1st year 48.2%, 2nd year 52.8%, high year 63.1% (11th season), Improvement 14.9%

B. Roethlisberger - 1st year 66.4%, 3rd year 59.9%, high year 67.1 (11th season), Improvement 0.7-7.2%

A. Smith - 1st year 50.9%, 3rd year 48.7%, high year 70.2% (7th season), Improvement 9.3-21.5%

 

Those are just a handful of names... Again this isn't to say EJ will improve with accuracy, but it does show that accuracy can improve. I suppose to be more accurate, I should have taken accuracy for the first 2-3 seasons averaged, and compared them to 2-3 most recent/prime seasons of QBs... hm.

While completion percentage is okay to look at, it doesn't really compare accuracy, rather, completion percentage.

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While completion percentage is okay to look at, it doesn't really compare accuracy, rather, completion percentage.

 

And despite it's limitations it's still the best stat we have to get a gauge on accuracy. I'll trust it more than some random guy's "eyeball test."

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And despite it's limitations it's still the best stat we have to get a gauge on accuracy. I'll trust it more than some random guy's "eyeball test."

Who is a proponent of the random eyeball test?

 

Peyton's 56% could be and probably is much different from EJ's 58%. Let's talk completion percentage to WR's. It's a much better stat that ignores check downs, those throws that everyone on their couch can complete.

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Unless the coaching staff get someone who knows the system or has history of something similar I would place my money on EJ having the reigns.

 

Who is a proponent of the random eyeball test?

Peyton's 56% could be and probably is much different from EJ's 58%. Let's talk completion percentage to WR's. It's a much better stat that ignores check downs, those throws that everyone on their couch can complete.

If that's the case then get a tryout. If you do, I choose you as our Week 1 starter.

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Unless the coaching staff get someone who knows the system or has history of something similar I would place my money on EJ having the reigns.

 

If that's the case then get a tryout. If you do, I choose you as our Week 1 starter.

I assure you, I can complete a 5 yard pass to a RB in the flat. I appreciate your support.

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While completion percentage is okay to look at, it doesn't really compare accuracy, rather, completion percentage.

If you have a better statistic to use for this, I'd gladly use it. I just wanted to verify whether a quarterback can improve or not over the course of their career in terms of accuracy. I believe they can, but many state that it's impossible.

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I've been saying Sam Bradford for like a year so I guess that there is no reason to change my mind now. He makes a lot of sense to me but there are obvious injury concerns.


If you have a better statistic to use for this, I'd gladly use it. I just wanted to verify whether a quarterback can improve or not over the course of their career in terms of accuracy. I believe they can, but many state that it's impossible.

I think that they are 2 different questions. A QB can raise his completion percentage because he goes through progressions faster and throws to guys that are "more open." Can he make more accurate throws? I do not know.

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If you have a better statistic to use for this, I'd gladly use it. I just wanted to verify whether a quarterback can improve or not over the course of their career in terms of accuracy. I believe they can, but many state that it's impossible.

Completion percentage to WR's. See how drastically it changes. And what Kirby said.

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Not sure where to find completion percentage to WRs... but ESPN's splits do have completion percentages for air travel... or at least thats how I read it.

 

Alex Smith's second year (low point) - 11+ yards - 53/131 - 40.5%

Alex Smith's eighth year (high point) - 11+ yards - 30/56 - 53.7%

 

Will take quite a bit of time for other QBs, but is certainly doable to dig through.

 

Edit: Looks like ESPN doesn't have these stats prior to 2002, so some QBs will be out for this...


Eli Manning's first year (low point) - 11+ yards - 20/60 - 33.33%

Eli Manning's eleventh year (high point) - 11+ yards - 93/180 - 51.7%


EJ Manuel - 11+ yards

2013 - 34/87 - 39.1% (10 games)

2014 - 13/40 - 32.5% (4 games)

Total - 47/127 - 37% (14 games)

 

Not starting out great, obviously [/st. Doug]

Edited by Dorkington
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