Updated: The AFC Playoff Picture

[Mark80]

Would it be better for Cinci to beat Denver so when the Pats beat the Jets they clinch home field advantage, making their week 17 matchup against us a pointless game for them? I keep reading that the Pats don't rest their starters regardless so I guess it might not matter.

 

I don't think so. Of all the AFC North teams we need 1 to lose 2 games to have a legit shot. Cincy is our best bet at losing both games considering who they play in my opinion.

 

And there is no way that the Pats lay down for us week 17 regardless of their situation.

 

I guess I missed where they reset. I'll read up more.

 

Posted the part for you in my post above your last one as an edit.

Edited December 15, 2014 by Mark80

[Dorkington]

I don't think so. Of all the AFC North teams we need 1 to lose 2 games to have a legit shot. Cincy is our best bet at losing both games considering who they play in my opinion.

 

And there is no way that the Pats lay down for us week 17 regardless of their situation.

 

 

 

Posted the part for you in my post above your last one as an edit.

 

I see what you're saying... I had the interpretation that the Bills would be applied as the 6th seed in that scenario instead of resetting.

 

ESPN Playoff machine still shows the Bills as 6th seed, though in that scenario... I just now noticed the tiebreaker details, which shows:

 

http://espn.go.com/nfl/playoffs/machine/_/factor/powerranking/results/400554449~1~400554438~2~400554405~2~400554441~2~400554413~1

 

• 5th Seed - Pittsburgh
  Wins tie break over Buffalo based on best win percentage in conference games. Division tie break was initially used to eliminate Baltimore (Pittsburgh wins tie break over Baltimore based on best win percentage in division games).
  
• 6th Seed - Buffalo
  Wins tie break over Baltimore based on strength of victory.
  

 

Hopefully that's accurate haha

 

Do want to say, this all depends on pretty weird results of games happening, so this discussion regarding PIT, BAL, and BUF at 10-6 with everyone else not, is probably moot.

Edited December 15, 2014 by Dorkington

[Mark80]

I see what you're saying... I had the interpretation that the Bills would be applied as the 6th seed in that scenario instead of resetting.

 

ESPN Playoff machine still shows the Bills as 6th seed, though in that scenario... I just now noticed the tiebreaker details, which shows:

 

 

 

Hopefully that's accurate haha

 

Do want to say, this all depends on pretty weird results of games happening, so this discussion regarding PIT, BAL, and BUF at 10-6 with everyone else not, is probably moot.

 

How that site completely ignores the common opponents tie breaker which is before SOS is beyond me. Clearly common games is #4 tie breaker and SOS is #5.

[Dorkington]

How that site completely ignores the common opponents tie breaker which is before SOS is beyond me. Clearly common games is #4 tie breaker and SOS is #5.

 

Do we have enough common games?

 

Edit: Only three common games are shown (since we play Mia twice, and they play Cle twice).

Edited December 15, 2014 by Dorkington

[Mark80]

Yes, there are 5 games with common opponents for us and the Ravens. Miami, Cleveland, San Diego, and Houston. (extra game each side for Miami and Cleveland). You only need 4.

[26CornerBlitz]

Yes, there are 5 games with common opponents for us and the Ravens. Miami, Cleveland, San Diego, and Houston. (extra game each side for Miami and Cleveland). You only need 4.

 

Correct.

[Calgary_JG]

This is a big week 16...we need PIT to take down KC, SF to take down SD and DEN to handle CIN. If that all happens then we're looking at a BUF win and CIN loss (to PIT) in week 17 for the playoffs. We may be #9 right now but the teams in front of us all have to play each other.

[Mark80]

Do we have enough common games?

 

Edit: Only three common games are shown (since we play Mia twice, and they play Cle twice).

 

Well, that's where they are messing up. See "Other Tie-Breaking Procedures" #2

 

"In comparing records against common opponents among tied teams, the best won-lost-tied percentage is the deciding factor, since teams may have played an unequal number of games."

 

No where does it state to eliminate division opponents, in fact, mentioning "unequal number of games" specifically hints at including them since that is the only way possible to have an unequal number of games.

[Dorkington]

Yes, there are 5 games with common opponents for us and the Ravens. Miami, Cleveland, San Diego, and Houston. (extra game each side for Miami and Cleveland). You only need 4.

 

Forgot about Chargers, you're absolutely right there, my apologies. So ESPN's site cannot be trusted.

[26CornerBlitz]

This is a big week 16...we need PIT to take down KC, SF to take down SD and DEN to handle CIN. If that all happens then we're looking at a BUF win and CIN loss (to PIT) in week 17 for the playoffs. We may be #9 right now but the teams in front of us all have to play each other.

 

The Bengals are hosting Denver on MNF. They usually crumble in prime time games. Let's hope SF is into their game, but they really have nothing to play for. You'd think PIT would handle KC, but they define inconsistency. I hate that they are in the position of needing help.

[8-8 Forever?]

I heard on WGR today that I believe if Chargers, Chiefs and Ravens win we are out, even before the Raiders game begins. Other than if ties happen, which never do. All of those games happen before the 4pm sunday game. This is because in final week, there would be no way not to have 3 teams at 10-6, because teams at 9-6 play each other in final week, and someone has to win.

Edited December 15, 2014 by 8and8Forever

[GunnerBill]

This is a big week 16...we need PIT to take down KC, SF to take down SD and DEN to handle CIN. If that all happens then we're looking at a BUF win and CIN loss (to PIT) in week 17 for the playoffs. We may be #9 right now but the teams in front of us all have to play each other.

 

Yep. Let's go Buffalo!

[Mark80]

The Bengals are hosting Denver on MNF. They usually crumble in prime time games. Let's hope SF is into their game, but they really have nothing to play for. You'd think PIT would handle KC, but they define inconsistency. I hate that they are in the position of needing help.

 

I never buy this at all. These guys have everything to play for. These guys are professional athletes. They are always playing for their jobs and their next contract and when millions of dollars is at stake (or hundreds of thousands of dollars for the depth guys) it keeps the motivation pretty high I would think. Not to mention competitiveness which pretty much all professional athletes possess at a very high level or else they most likely wouldn't have made the NFL in the first place.

Edited December 15, 2014 by Mark80

[hondo in seattle]

Well, this season hasn't been devoid of disappointment. But we ought to thank Doug² for making things interesting. It's the middle of December and the Bills still have a chance to make the playoffs.

 

If we win next week, and we should, I'll be glued to the TV the final week of regular season. Usually I avoid the TV that week because all the playoff mania just makes me feel low about another Bills season ending without a glimmer of hope.

[26CornerBlitz]

I never buy this at all. These guys have everything to play for. These guys are professional athletes. They are always playing for their jobs and their next contract and when millions of dollars is at stake (or hundreds of thousands of dollars for the depth guys) it keeps the motivation pretty high I would think.

 

Easy to say that, but football is an emotional game. It's just not the same and particularly so for a team like the 49ers that's used to playing in big games in the playoffs and Super Bowls. I hope you're right of course.

[Mark80]

Easy to say that, but football is an emotional game. It's just not the same and particularly so for a team like the 49ers that's used to playing in big games in the playoffs and Super Bowls. I hope you're right of course.

 

Yeah, I can see guys like Kaep tuning it down a notch as he's got a huge deal and is secure for the rest of his life (well, he should be at least). But for the vast majority of the players who are not, I think they still bring it. We all know the average lifespan of a player is what, 3 years, 4 years? Most players are going do do whatever they can regardless of their record to impress their team and other teams as much as possible so they can keep playing.

[ny33]

Yeah, I can see guys like Kaep tuning it down a notch as he's got a huge deal and is secure for the rest of his life (well, he should be at least). But for the vast majority of the players who are not, I think they still bring it. We all know the average lifespan of a player is what, 3 years, 4 years? Most players are going do do whatever they can regardless of their record to impress their team and other teams as much as possible so they can keep playing.

 

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2014/06/05/the-full-kaepernick-contract-details/

 

Actually, Kaepernick's contract only becomes guaranteed, for the league year, on April 1st. This is the case for each remaining year in his contract.

[YoloinOhio]

Well, this season hasn't been devoid of disappointment. But we ought to thank Doug² for making things interesting. It's the middle of December and the Bills still have a chance to make the playoffs.

 

If we win next week, and we should, I'll be glued to the TV the final week of regular season. Usually I avoid the TV that week because all the playoff mania just makes me feel low about another Bills season ending without a glimmer of hope.

It's a lot more fun to be talking about playoff scenarios with 2 games to go, than talking about draft position.

[Dorkington]

It's a lot more fun to be talking about playoff scenarios with 2 games to go, than talking about draft position.

 

Truth. Even if odds are slim, it's exciting.

[QCity]

Great win yesterday but unfortunately we didn't get any help.