Austin Davis is going to be a very good QB---undrafted rookie

[Orton's Arm]

For the umpteenth time, this is utter bullschit. Not one ounce of truth to it. And if it were true, then Jimbo Fisher would be, hands down, the dumbest football coach on the planet. No coach in his right mind, DELIBERATELY takes away half the field from his offense. So feel free to condemn EJ Mauel's "mental bandwidth", but please don't continue to base it on this propaganda.

 

GO BILLS!!!

 

> For the umpteenth time

 

Yes, you've said similar things before. But you didn't (and still haven't) provided evidence to support your assertions. You've simply presented your opinion as though it was fact.

 

In the film I've watched of Manuel's college play, he didn't make more than one read. What you see as "propaganda" I see as an accurate description of what generally happened when Manuel was under center.

[C.Biscuit97]

Tim Tebow put up great numbers as a college passer. That doesn't mean he was particularly accurate or good at reading defenses. In college, there is often a great mismatch between different teams' talent levels. A quarterback on a very good college team--like FSU--can put up shining numbers, even if he himself doesn't do anything special.

 

A pre-draft scouting report indicated Orton "has the field-reading skills of a 10 year NFL vet." I compare that to the pre-draft scouting reports of Manuel; which indicated that he only had to make one read in his simplified college offense. Orton's scouting report also indicated that "good timing is a huge part of his play." I have not seen anything--either in scouting reports, the college film I've watched, or his play in the NFL--which would indicate Manuel is good at hitting moving targets. So that's another advantage Orton has over Manuel.

 

Not only did the pre-draft scouting reports on Manuel raise questions about his ability to hit moving targets, but his accuracy as a whole was drawn into question. If you watch his college highlight video you'll see what I mean. There are no special throws in that video. No throws that only an NFL quarterback could make. Sometimes what you don't see is just as important as what you do.

 

You like Orton. I get that. But Purdue for a long time has been a very QB friendly offense. It has been know as the Cradle of QBs. For god sake's, Curtis Painter was successful there. Let's not pretend like Orton didn't play in a very good offense.

 

All it comes back to is I think EJ might have had the worst OC in the NFL to be both his QB coach and OC. What OC in the NFL has a worse resume than Hackett?

 

And if you draft again in the 1st round and can't develop him, you should be fired for that. I really hope the Bills make the playoffs but if we don't, let's get some coaches who have actually been legitamately successful.

[Rob's House]

 

 

You like Orton. I get that. But Purdue for a long time has been a very QB friendly offense. It has been know as the Cradle of QBs. For god sake's, Curtis Painter was successful there. Let's not pretend like Orton didn't play in a very good offense.

 

All it comes back to is I think EJ might have had the worst OC in the NFL to be both his QB coach and OC. What OC in the NFL has a worse resume than Hackett?

 

And if you draft again in the 1st round and can't develop him, you should be fired for that. I really hope the Bills make the playoffs but if we don't, let's get some coaches who have actually been legitamately successful.

 

No NFL scout is comparing completion % between college QBs to gauge accuracy.

[C.Biscuit97]

No NFL scout is comparing completion % between college QBs to gauge accuracy.

 

Agreed but at worse, EJ was going in the 2nd. Orton was a 4th rounder. There's a reason for that.

[Orton's Arm]

You like Orton. I get that. But Purdue for a long time has been a very QB friendly offense. It has been know as the Cradle of QBs. For god sake's, Curtis Painter was successful there. Let's not pretend like Orton didn't play in a very good offense.

 

All it comes back to is I think EJ might have had the worst OC in the NFL to be both his QB coach and OC. What OC in the NFL has a worse resume than Hackett?

 

And if you draft again in the 1st round and can't develop him, you should be fired for that. I really hope the Bills make the playoffs but if we don't, let's get some coaches who have actually been legitamately successful.

 

> All it comes back to is I think EJ might have had the worst OC in the NFL

 

Pegula will have a lot of work to do at the end of the season. He needs to clean house, including Whaley, Marrone, Hackett, and many others. Some players are long-term answers, and some others are stopgaps. Those are about the only people he should retain.

 

That said, plenty of previous Bills' quarterbacks had bad offensive coordinators also. Trent Edwards had bad offensive coordinators. I vaguely recollect Losman having a bad offensive coordinator at some point in his career. It's not like either Losman or Edwards went on to achieve great things after moving to other teams with better coordinators. (Unless you want to count Losman's championship with the Las Vegas Locomotives.)

 

EJ Manuel isn't throwing the ball accurately. He isn't seeing open targets. He throws far too many widowmaker passes. None of which can be blamed on Hackett.

[Rob's House]

Agreed but at worse, EJ was going in the 2nd. Orton was a 4th rounder. There's a reason for that.

 

You were talking about accuracy, not draft position, and accuracy was not an asset that helped EJ. Assuming you're right, the only reason for that is because the read option is the new fad and people thought EJ had the combination of running ability and arm strength to make it work. No one would have drafted him in the first 4 rounds to be a pocket passer and that's partly because he lacks accuracy.

Edited October 15, 2014 by Rob's House

[K-9]

> For the umpteenth time

 

Yes, you've said similar things before. But you didn't (and still haven't) provided evidence to support your assertions. You've simply presented your opinion as though it was fact.

 

In the film I've watched of Manuel's college play, he didn't make more than one read. What you see as "propaganda" I see as an accurate description of what generally happened when Manuel was under center.

 

My "evidence" is based on the personal conversations I've had with scouts and some front office personnel who claimed EJ Manuel blew them away with his ability to diagnose defenses as well as diagram plays to counter what he saw. I don't care if you accept that or not. Makes no difference to me. I also don't put any stock in your own personal "breakdown" of EJ Manuel's college tape where you claim to only see one read. I can also find plays of every QB, college or pro, where they only had to make one read on a given play; sometimes that's all it takes. You have this penchant for believing that EVERY play requires EVERY read EVERY time. It just doesn't work that way.

 

And again, if Jimbo Fisher purposely designed his offense to eliminate a QB's reads, then he is the dumbest coach in history. I seriously question the "mental bandwidth" of any coach that designs an offense that takes away half the field; it's just too easy to counter defensively. And if Manuel were so severely mentally handicapped as you keep insisting, then Fisher is even dumber for putting him at the helm of a top college program for so much as a single snap, let alone long enough to amass four bowl wins.

 

EJ Manuel has his challenges to be sure. But coming from a "one read" college offense and not having the ability to diagnose what he sees, isn't one of them. And if that's "opinion" it isn't shared by professionals that know better and I rest easy knowing their informed opinions trump those of some unqualified wannabe bloggers.

 

GO BILLS!!!

[What a Tuel]

Really? And you know this how? Based on 2 games?

 

I'm just curious. If Matt Stafford were our QB would you bench him for EJ?

 

Because Orton has played better over the last 2 games than stafford. Both play for teams that are 1-1 over the last two weeks, but Orton has had the better statistical performance. To be fair, Stafford had to go up against the big bad Vikings last week. Let's compare:

 

Orton - 54/81, 607 yds, 66.7% comp, 7.5 ypa, 3 TDs, 2 INTs, 7 sacks, 1 fumble

 

Stafford - 37/64, 416 yds, 57.8% comp, 6.5 ypa, 2 TDs, 1 INT, 10 sacks, 2 fumbles

 

 

 

That's not a comparable play. On the one you linked Goodwin was single covered and the ball just had to be thrown past the defender. On the pass Orton made the safety was coming over and the ball had to be placed precisely where it was to stay in bounds and avoid the safety. Not to take anything away from Manuel for making a good throw, but those are simply not comparable plays.

 

Did you really just play the "you don't know because you've only seen 2 games with Orton" card?

 

Who knows what is going on right now with Stafford, but are you really saying "Stafford, a big name QB is playing crappy, and on the same level as Orton! So in reality we are benching Manuel for a Stafford-like QB!!"

[Buftex]

Dancing about architecture

[Orton's Arm]

My "evidence" is based on the personal conversations I've had with scouts and some front office personnel who claimed EJ Manuel blew them away with his ability to diagnose defenses as well as diagram plays to counter what he saw. I don't care if you accept that or not. Makes no difference to me. I also don't put any stock in your own personal "breakdown" of EJ Manuel's college tape where you claim to only see one read. I can also find plays of every QB, college or pro, where they only had to make one read on a given play; sometimes that's all it takes. You have this penchant for believing that EVERY play requires EVERY read EVERY time. It just doesn't work that way.

 

And again, if Jimbo Fisher purposely designed his offense to eliminate a QB's reads, then he is the dumbest coach in history. I seriously question the "mental bandwidth" of any coach that designs an offense that takes away half the field; it's just too easy to counter defensively. And if Manuel were so severely mentally handicapped as you keep insisting, then Fisher is even dumber for putting him at the helm of a top college program for so much as a single snap, let alone long enough to amass four bowl wins.

 

EJ Manuel has his challenges to be sure. But coming from a "one read" college offense and not having the ability to diagnose what he sees, isn't one of them. And if that's "opinion" it isn't shared by professionals that know better and I rest easy knowing their informed opinions trump those of some unqualified wannabe bloggers.

 

GO BILLS!!!

 

> My "evidence" is based on the personal conversations I've had with scouts and some front office personnel who

> claimed EJ Manuel blew them away with his ability to diagnose defenses as well as diagram plays to counter what he saw.

 

I'm willing to accept the above at face value. My guess is that your conversations were with Bills scouts and front office personnel. If I'm wrong about that, I invite you to say so.

 

It's one thing to be able to sit down with a coach or scout, look over a diagram of a play in a peaceful, unhurried setting, and dissect what is seen. But a QB typically only has 3 - 4 seconds between when the ball is snapped and when he must make a decision. It's possible for a quarterback to excel in a classroom setting without necessarily being good at quickly processing large amounts of information during those precious few seconds.

 

> I can also find plays of every QB, college or pro, where they only had to make one read on a given play; sometimes that's all it takes.

 

Agreed. If one of Manuel's supporters has video footage of him making multiple reads on several plays, I'll be more than happy to watch the footage. And to revise my opinion if the footage bears out their claims. Given that he didn't make more than one read in the footage I have watched, and given that multiple credible sources describe him as having been a one read QB in college, I will continue to regard him as such until that video footage is provided.

 

> I seriously question the "mental bandwidth" of any coach that designs an offense that takes away half the field; it's just too easy to counter defensively.

 

As a rookie, Ben Roethlisberger didn't know the offense well enough to know what his second and third options were on a play. He could throw only to his primary read. To compensate, he'd pick a WR at random (someone other than his primary read). He'd stare down that WR. After having stared down someone other than his primary read, he'd throw to his primary read. Given that Roethlisberger got away with a year of that at the NFL level--and put up some pretty good stats while doing it--I have to think it's possible for a college QB to do the same. Especially when that quarterback is surrounded with the kind of supporting cast FSU had.

 

> And if Manuel were so severely mentally handicapped as you keep insisting

 

I've read that Drew Bledsoe needed over three seconds to see what Tom Brady could see in less than two. Nearly all the QBs the Bills have had since Kelly have been hampered by less-than-ideal information processing speed. Rob Johnson was a sack waiting to happen because he couldn't process what was going on downfield while simultaneously paying attention to the pass rush. To compensate, he ignored everything remotely related to the pass rush, while paying attention only to what was going on downfield. Trent Edwards was another player who couldn't process information very quickly. If he'd had good information processing speed, he could have known which plays represented good opportunities to stand in the pocket, and which required quick dump-offs to RBs. But because he couldn't process information quickly enough to divide plays into those two categories, he had to treat every play the same way.

 

College quarterbacks who lack Aaron Rodgers-type bandwidth are much more common than those who have it.

[Rob's House]

 

 

Did you really just play the "you don't know because you've only seen 2 games with Orton" card?

 

Who knows what is going on right now with Stafford, but are you really saying "Stafford, a big name QB is playing crappy, and on the same level as Orton! So in reality we are benching Manuel for a Stafford-like QB!!"

 

To your first question, yes, and I already explained that in greater depth earlier in this thread.

 

To your second question, no, that was not the point.

[What a Tuel]

To your first question, yes, and I already explained that in greater depth earlier in this thread.

 

To your second question, no, that was not the point.

 

You didn't get the humor in that first one. You point to Orton as a good QB based on his prior years of experience, and we can't look at his past two games as an indicator. But then Manuel who doesn't have those years of experience, and has only a limited time as a professional football player, and you know right from the start, he shouldn't be an NFL QB. Like I said in previous posts, I am all for EJ learning from the bench, but what a waste if they ditch him.

 

As for the second question, that seems like it was the point. Feel free to clarify, but you asked "Would you sit Stafford for Manuel?" and then listed out that Orton's stats are comparable to Staffords over the last two games. Which sounds to me like you are trying to correlate Stafford and Orton as of the same quality.

[K-9]

> My "evidence" is based on the personal conversations I've had with scouts and some front office personnel who

> claimed EJ Manuel blew them away with his ability to diagnose defenses as well as diagram plays to counter what he saw.

 

I'm willing to accept the above at face value. My guess is that your conversations were with Bills scouts and front office personnel. If I'm wrong about that, I invite you to say so.

 

It's one thing to be able to sit down with a coach or scout, look over a diagram of a play in a peaceful, unhurried setting, and dissect what is seen. But a QB typically only has 3 - 4 seconds between when the ball is snapped and when he must make a decision. It's possible for a quarterback to excel in a classroom setting without necessarily being good at quickly processing large amounts of information during those precious few seconds.

 

> I can also find plays of every QB, college or pro, where they only had to make one read on a given play; sometimes that's all it takes.

 

Agreed. If one of Manuel's supporters has video footage of him making multiple reads on several plays, I'll be more than happy to watch the footage. And to revise my opinion if the footage bears out their claims. Given that he didn't make more than one read in the footage I have watched, and given that multiple credible sources describe him as having been a one read QB in college, I will continue to regard him as such until that video footage is provided.

 

> I seriously question the "mental bandwidth" of any coach that designs an offense that takes away half the field; it's just too easy to counter defensively.

 

As a rookie, Ben Roethlisberger didn't know the offense well enough to know what his second and third options were on a play. He could throw only to his primary read. To compensate, he'd pick a WR at random (someone other than his primary read). He'd stare down that WR. After having stared down someone other than his primary read, he'd throw to his primary read. Given that Roethlisberger got away with a year of that at the NFL level--and put up some pretty good stats while doing it--I have to think it's possible for a college QB to do the same. Especially when that quarterback is surrounded with the kind of supporting cast FSU had.

 

> And if Manuel were so severely mentally handicapped as you keep insisting

 

I've read that Drew Bledsoe needed over three seconds to see what Tom Brady could see in less than two. Nearly all the QBs the Bills have had since Kelly have been hampered by less-than-ideal information processing speed. Rob Johnson was a sack waiting to happen because he couldn't process what was going on downfield while simultaneously paying attention to the pass rush. To compensate, he ignored everything remotely related to the pass rush, while paying attention only to what was going on downfield. Trent Edwards was another player who couldn't process information very quickly. If he'd had good information processing speed, he could have known which plays represented good opportunities to stand in the pocket, and which required quick dump-offs to RBs. But because he couldn't process information quickly enough to divide plays into those two categories, he had to treat every play the same way.

 

College quarterbacks who lack Aaron Rodgers-type bandwidth are much more common than those who have it.

 

Buffalo, SD, and Jacksonville personnel, including scouts and player-personnel types.

 

No need to continue this dialogue, either. It's beyond my comprehension that you could have so little respect for Jimbo Fisher, who must be dumbest coach in history. If you want footage of Manuel, or ANY quarterback making "multiple" reads, they are out there. Have at it. It may help to seek advice on what you are looking at. As a general rule, start with the safeties and any backside threats to your play. If you're interested in making the line calls as well, see what defender is closest to the ball and work from the middle out. Good luck.

 

GO BILLS!!!

[Rob's House]

 

 

You didn't get the humor in that first one. You point to Orton as a good QB based on his prior years of experience, and we can't look at his past two games as an indicator. But then Manuel who doesn't have those years of experience, and has only a limited time as a professional football player, and you know right from the start, he shouldn't be an NFL QB. Like I said in previous posts, I am all for EJ learning from the bench, but what a waste if they ditch him.

 

As for the second question, that seems like it was the point. Feel free to clarify, but you asked "Would you sit Stafford for Manuel?" and then listed out that Orton's stats are comparable to Staffords over the last two games. Which sounds to me like you are trying to correlate Stafford and Orton as of the same quality.

 

I didn't claim to know Manuel's ceiling. You, or whoever I was responding to, did claim to know Orton's. I pointed out the flaws in that assumption. There's no inconsistency here on my part.

[Orton's Arm]

You didn't get the humor in that first one. You point to Orton as a good QB based on his prior years of experience, and we can't look at his past two games as an indicator. But then Manuel who doesn't have those years of experience, and has only a limited time as a professional football player, and you know right from the start, he shouldn't be an NFL QB. Like I said in previous posts, I am all for EJ learning from the bench, but what a waste if they ditch him.

 

As for the second question, that seems like it was the point. Feel free to clarify, but you asked "Would you sit Stafford for Manuel?" and then listed out that Orton's stats are comparable to Staffords over the last two games. Which sounds to me like you are trying to correlate Stafford and Orton as of the same quality.

 

> You point to Orton as a good QB based on his prior years of experience, and we can't look at his past two games as an indicator.

 

I think that someone who takes an unbiased look at the past two Orton games will have a fairly accurate indicator of what to expect. However, there have been those who have examined those two games as if grimly determined to see only the bad in Orton, and none of the good. Those two games as represented by the anti-Orton crowd are not an accurate indicator of what to expect from him long-term.

 

> Like I said in previous posts, I am all for EJ learning from the bench, but what a waste if they ditch him.

 

If they play Manuel, it should be because he's doing at least as well as Orton in practice. But if that's the standard that's used to allocate playing time, the Bills need to be realistic about the fact that barring injury, Manuel will probably never take another regular season snap for this team. The Bills need to accept the fact that their quarterback of the present is Kyle Orton; and that their quarterback of the future is not yet on the team.

[Malazan]

There have been a lot of obvious franchise qbs after 4 games. Very few after 4 seasons.

 

This^

[3rdand12]

Think about that statement for a minute. It's totally non-sensical from a football point of view.

 

GO BILLS!!!

True enough. Fans perception is one thing. marketing another yet. Perception of a successful FO might be Metzs Lives point here. Often the standard in discussions here abouts is presenting the draft pick as a commodity. Then digresses into " it takes a couple years for a _ _ _ _ to settle in to the position.

etc etc ad nauseaum.

Is he playing good football right now ? is all i care about honestly.

if not we should burn him at the stake.

 

Can you hear me Lee Smith ?

; )

[Orton's Arm]

Buffalo, SD, and Jacksonville personnel, including scouts and player-personnel types.

 

No need to continue this dialogue, either. It's beyond my comprehension that you could have so little respect for Jimbo Fisher, who must be dumbest coach in history. If you want footage of Manuel, or ANY quarterback making "multiple" reads, they are out there. Have at it. It may help to seek advice on what you are looking at. As a general rule, start with the safeties and any backside threats to your play. If you're interested in making the line calls as well, see what defender is closest to the ball and work from the middle out. Good luck.

 

GO BILLS!!!

 

> No need to continue this dialogue, either.

 

Agreed. But I'd like to clarify one aspect of my earlier argument before bringing this to a close. Earlier, I wrote, that reports indicated "[Manuel] only had to make one read in his simplified college offense." You seem to have interpreted this as a claim that Fisher only made one read per play available to Manuel.

 

Doubtless multiple reads were made available to Manuel on virtually every play. But--at least according to most of the reports I've read--he didn't avail himself of those multiple reads. He'd either throw it to his primary target or, if that primary target wasn't college open, he'd go to his dump-off option.

 

Do the claims in those reports ring true? They accurately describe what I've seen of the portion of his college film I've watched. They also accurately describe the vast, vast majority of the plays I've seen him make as a Buffalo Bill.

 

Back when Lawyer Milloy was still with the Patriots, it was common for people within that organization to talk about all the big plays he made. Big plays which supposedly offset the fact that he was an average player on most downs, being paid a high salary. Then Bill Belichick asked the question, "What big plays?" He correctly pointed out that in the last 1 - 2 years, Milloy had made very few big plays. There was very little reason to continue paying him that high salary. Shortly after coming to this realization, the Patriots released him.

 

It's easy for people--even people who do this for a living--to see more than is really there. People get in the habit of talking about the big plays made by a guy like Lawyer Milloy, or the multiple reads that EJ Manuel supposedly made on a routine basis in college. People need to be more open to the possibility that Lawyer Milloy might not have been making many big plays, or that Manuel might not have been making more than one read per play. (At least not on the vast majority of his plays.) Or, worse, people will see that Manuel wasn't making multiple reads for the vast majority of his college plays, and will explain that observation away by using words like "project."

Edited October 17, 2014 by Orton's Arm

[jr1]

Are we going to have to hear how he "played baseball" during every game?

[26CornerBlitz]

This kid is an undrafted rookie and went into tonight's game with a 96.9 QB rating, completing over 67% of his passes and had a healthy 7.9 YPA to go along with 6 TDs and 3 INTs...

 

Sadly in 4 games, it is blatantly obvious to anyone who has watched him play he is miles better than EJ...dude reminds me a lot of a young Mark Brunell---mobile, very accurate and makes smart decisions throwing the ball...

 

St. Louis might have gotten lucky that their first 2 QBs got hurt because he is playing better than either one of them would be right now...looks like Bradford probably is going to be done in St. Louis

 

One thing to correct is that Austin Davis has been around for three years: http://www.nfl.com/player/austindavis/2533349/combine