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Astro's Value Board - 40 days to go


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I think our draft needs are:
  • Playmaker WR (Hogan, Easley, Kaufman, Barden, Elliott are 2015 FAs)
  • Playmaker TE (Lee Smith, Moeaki and Caussin are '15 FAs)
  • At least 2 DE (Mario and Hughes are the only guys on depth chart)
  • ILB that's 3-down, faster than Spikes
  • ROT Eric Pears, Chris Hairston are '15 FAs, Hairston needs competition
  • FS Searcy is ’15 FA, Leonhard is FA right now
  • Trade Down for more players

My
Value
Board for Top Rounds:

RD1
- Matthews, Evans, Ebron, or trade down

RD2
- Skov, Morgan
Moses, Jordan
Matthews, Kelvin Benjamin, Donte Moncrief, or Troy Niklas

RD3
- DE (Chris Smith, Marcus Smith, Demarcus Lawrence), OG (Jackson,Dozier), RT Mewhort, S Bucannon

RD4
- DE
Kareem Martin, RB Lache Seastrunk, RT
JaWuan James, QB (McCarron Boyd)

RD5
-
RB Andre Williams,
WR
Brandon Coleman, S (
Loston, Dixon,
Dion Bailey), TE (
Lynch, JoeDon Duncan)

RD6
- TE (Grimble, Blanchflower) RT (Michael Schofield), S ( Sunseri, Lewis, Zimmerman) WR (Ward, TJ Jones, Michael Campanaro)

RD7
- FB/TE Gator Hoskins, FB Jay Prosch

 

I'd love your input. I'm using a new CMD#9 mock that will be released Sunday 3/30
.

~Astro
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I don't know much about specific college players, but I do agree with your needs assessment.

 

I think our draft needs are:
  • Playmaker WR (Hogan, Easley, Kaufman, Barden, Elliott are 2015 FAs)
  • Playmaker TE (Lee Smith, Moeaki and Caussin are '15 FAs)
  • At least 2 DE (Mario and Hughes are the only guys on depth chart)
  • ILB that's 3-down, faster than Spikes
  • ROT Eric Pears, Chris Hairston are '15 FAs, Hairston needs competition
  • FS Searcy is ’15 FA, Leonhard is FA right now
  • Trade Down for more players

My
Value
Board for Top Rounds:

RD1
- Matthews, Evans, Ebron, or trade down

RD2
- Skov, Morgan
Moses, Jordan
Matthews, Kelvin Benjamin, Donte Moncrief, or Troy Niklas

RD3
- DE (Chris Smith, Marcus Smith, Demarcus Lawrence), OG (Jackson,Dozier), RT Mewhort, S Bucannon

RD4
- DE
Kareem Martin, RB Lache Seastrunk, RT
JaWuan James, QB (McCarron Boyd)

RD5
-
RB Andre Williams,
WR
Brandon Coleman, S (
Loston, Dixon,
Dion Bailey), TE (
Lynch, JoeDon Duncan)

RD6
- TE (Grimble, Blanchflower) RT (Michael Schofield), S ( Sunseri, Lewis, Zimmerman) WR (Ward, TJ Jones, Michael Campanaro)

RD7
- FB/TE Gator Hoskins, FB Jay Prosch

I'd love your input. I'm using a new CMD#9 mock that will be released Sunday 3/30
.

~Astro

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I know we have had this discussion before. We agree on the needs. Just not the importance of meeting the need for DE so early. Drafting Scott Crichton in the 2nd when we have much greater needs at ILB,TE, RT and G seems a folly to me. And I don't even see Crichton as particularly worthy of a 2nd round pick.Our needs for DE are later in the draft and not as pressing. I would be very disappointed with the results of the latest mock draft.

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I know we have had this discussion before. We agree on the needs. Just not the importance of meeting the need for DE so early. Drafting Scott Crichton in the 2nd when we have much greater needs at ILB,TE, RT and G seems a folly to me. And I don't even see Crichton as particularly worthy of a 2nd round pick.Our needs for DE are later in the draft and not as pressing. I would be very disappointed with the results of the latest mock draft.

You'll like tomorrow's CMD, then!

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Astro, I know that you have a man crush on Skov but I think that it's time to pull him off the board for round 2. I like him as a player but at this juncture that would be a bad use of a 2nd for the Bills. Too many other needs that take precedent

Edited by Kirby Jackson
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Astro, I know that you have a man crush on Skov but I think that it's time to pull him off the board for round 2. I like him as a player but at thi juncture that would be a bad use of a 2nd for the Bills. Too many other needs that take precedent

 

Agreed...

 

No doubt the Bills will be looking for another LB for depth that can play in the middle in case Spikes is injured...But as it stands right now they have plenty of LB's and decent depth...Kiko will stay on the field in Nickle and Dime packages...I just don't see ILB as being a pressing need right now...Not to say they won't Draft one...But I seriously doubt it will be in the first 3 rounds unless we get some extra picks in a trade down... B-)

 

ILB, WR, OT, are the priority needs.

 

I would put DE as a more important need than TE.

 

How is ILB a priority need? Spikes is the starter, if he gets hurt Kiko would likely move back inside...57% the Defensive downs are played with only one or two LB's...The Bills 1st LB is Kiko, 2nd on the field in Nickel would probably be Spikes at this point...I just don't see ILB depth as a pressing need... B-)

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Agreed...

 

No doubt the Bills will be looking for another LB for depth that can play in the middle in case Spikes is injured...But as it stands right now they have plenty of LB's and decent depth...Kiko will stay on the field in Nickle and Dime packages...I just don't see ILB as being a pressing need right now...Not to say they won't Draft one...But I seriously doubt it will be in the first 3 rounds unless we get some extra picks in a trade down... B-)

 

Agreed. Tall WR, RT, TE, G should be first four pics but not in that order. I would pick up another RB in late rounds.

 

 

How is ILB a priority need? Spikes is the starter, if he gets hurt Kiko would likely move back inside...57% the Defensive downs are played with only one or two LB's...The Bills 1st LB is Kiko, 2nd on the field in Nickel would probably be Spikes at this point...I just don't see ILB depth as a pressing need... B-)

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I think the driving force in regard to DE is Jim Schwartzes projected 4-3. We do need one opposite Mario. and some depth there , agreed.

 

LB could be a good pick up , but he should be a high ceiling project maybe since we have starters and some depth now.

I dont know how to feel about safety . Depending on Graham , D Williams and Meeks .

team needs ar well identified Astro .

But i still think another guard needs to be found after RT is sorted

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If we need a DE. And I think we do. I think we should look at Anthony Barr for the DE role. He's big. Powerful. Fast. Plays with a meanstreak. Could be had in a trade down and we get exactly what we need.

 

IMO, he will be the best defensive player in the draft. I know. I'm in the minority here.

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Agreed...

 

No doubt the Bills will be looking for another LB for depth that can play in the middle in case Spikes is injured...But as it stands right now they have plenty of LB's and decent depth...Kiko will stay on the field in Nickle and Dime packages...I just don't see ILB as being a pressing need right now...Not to say they won't Draft one...But I seriously doubt it will be in the first 3 rounds unless we get some extra picks in a trade down... B-)

 

 

 

How is ILB a priority need? Spikes is the starter, if he gets hurt Kiko would likely move back inside...57% the Defensive downs are played with only one or two LB's...The Bills 1st LB is Kiko, 2nd on the field in Nickel would probably be Spikes at this point...I just don't see ILB depth as a pressing need... B-)

 

I have to disagree on this. The word is versatility. Spikes is a situational only player. He stinks at pass coverage and is a huge liability in any downs that end up being a pass situation. I agree he is killer in run coverage, which we need. But he is very one dimensional. Not knocking his signing, he fills a need, but is a specialist for specific down situations only. We need to develop an ALL AROUND LB to go with Kiko. It makes a flexible defensive scheme vulnerable when you have too many specialists and not enough all around good players. It is too easy for a good OC to catch the defense in the wrong setting otherwise. Spikes, Hughes, Searcy and too many others on the team are specialists. Very good at one thing, but a very big liability if the play ends up not needing the special skills they have. We need versatile players if we are going to have flexible, dynamic defensive schemes, or we will get continually stung with big plays. Just like the other discussion of Skov, even at TE you need versatility. Not only do we need a big body with good hands to catch , we also need a versatile TE who can block well for a run. And we have two great RBs to run if we only give them the help they need to get started.

Edited by simpleman
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I think Jackson Jeffcoat can be had early third round and would be a tremendous value there.

 

He has size and a really good skill set. Sometimes he was the entire texas defense this year. I enjoyed watching him play.

 

I could be wrong but I think whoever gets him is getting a good player at a great value.

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I have to disagree on this. The word is versatility. Spikes is a situational only player. He stinks at pass coverage and is a huge liability in any downs that end up being a pass situation. I agree he is killer in run coverage, which we need. But he is very one dimensional. Not knocking his signing, he fills a need, but is a specialist for specific down situations only. We need to develop an ALL AROUND LB to go with Kiko. It makes a flexible defensive scheme vulnerable when you have too many specialists and not enough all around good players. It is too easy for a good OC to catch the defense in the wrong setting otherwise. Spikes, Hughes, Searcy and too many others on the team are specialists. Very good at one thing, but a very big liability if the play ends up not needing the special skills they have. We need versatile players if we are going to have flexible, dynamic defensive schemes, or we will get continually stung with big plays. Just like the other discussion of Skov, even at TE you need versatility. Not only do we need a big body with good hands to catch , we also need a versatile TE who can block well for a run. And we have two great RBs to run if we only give them the help they need to get started.

Schwartz's scheme requires less versatility than Pettine's. In addition, Rivers and Lawson can both play on passing downs as well as Kiko (obviously). The Bills may want to add a LB but it is not 1 of the top 2 needs at this point. Edited by Kirby Jackson
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I have to disagree on this. The word is versatility. Spikes is a situational only player. He stinks at pass coverage and is a huge liability in any downs that end up being a pass situation. I agree he is killer in run coverage, which we need. But he is very one dimensional. Not knocking his signing, he fills a need, but is a specialist for specific down situations only. We need to develop an ALL AROUND LB to go with Kiko. It makes a flexible defensive scheme vulnerable when you have too many specialists and not enough all around good players. It is too easy for a good OC to catch the defense in the wrong setting otherwise. Spikes, Hughes, Searcy and too many others on the team are specialists. Very good at one thing, but a very big liability if the play ends up not needing the special skills they have. We need versatile players if we are going to have flexible, dynamic defensive schemes, or we will get continually stung with big plays. Just like the other discussion of Skov, even at TE you need versatility. Not only do we need a big body with good hands to catch , we also need a versatile TE who can block well for a run. And we have two great RBs to run if we only give them the help they need to get started.

 

So...I'm not arguing the need for versatility...I get that...But you have to gauge the value of versatility against the value of another prospect that can offer much more while using a premium Draft pick...Especially a 1st or 2nd round pick...How big is the need of versatility for a position that NFL teams are playing an average of 2 guys on 57% of Defensive snaps? You want to utilize a premium pick for versatility on Defense? Then I would much rather see the Bills use a premium pick on a big Safety. Because a big Safety is going to be on the field for 100% of the Defensive snaps...

 

If a guy like Skov is the best prospect available in the 3rd round I can see that...But he's not going to be the BPA in the 2nd round...I can all but guarantee that much...Especially in this Draft... B-)

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So...I'm not arguing the need for versatility...I get that...But you have to gauge the value of versatility against the value of another prospect that can offer much more while using a premium Draft pick...Especially a 1st or 2nd round pick...How big is the need of versatility for a position that NFL teams are playing an average of 2 guys on 57% of Defensive snaps? You want to utilize a premium pick for versatility on Defense? Then I would much rather see the Bills use a premium pick on a big Safety. Because a big Safety is going to be on the field for 100% of the Defensive snaps...

 

If a guy like Skov is the best prospect available in the 3rd round I can see that...But he's not going to be the BPA in the 2nd round...I can all but guarantee that much...Especially in this Draft... B-)

Great post
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Schwartz's scheme requires less versatility than Pettine's. In addition, Rivers and Lawson can both play on passing downs as well as Kiko (obviously). The Bills may want to add a LB but it is not 1 of the top 2 needs at this point.

You do realize that both Lawson and Rivers both are among the lowest rated LBs in the league? Neither negate the need for getting a true every down linebacker. Both are simply depth. Getting Rivers in FA changes nothing, his benefits are questionable. We can always hope for a miracle, and have nothing turn into something, but the odds are not good. Luckily he is dirt cheap. And as much as Lawson fills a need, again he is not great at anything. You need a quality all down LB opposite Kiko to have a playoff team. And while Schwartz's defense may not require the versatility of Pettine, he still requires more flexibility than a rigid moribund defense like a Wannie defense would.

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You do realize that both Lawson and Rivers both are among the lowest rated LBs in the league? Neither negate the need for getting a true every down linebacker. Both are simply depth. Getting Rivers in FA changes nothing, his benefits are questionable. We can always hope for a miracle, and have nothing turn into something, but the odds are not good. Luckily he is dirt cheap. And as much as Lawson fills a need, again he is not great at anything. You need a quality all down LB opposite Kiko to have a playoff team. And while Schwartz's defense may not require the versatility of Pettine, he still requires more flexibility than a rigid moribund defense like a Wannie defense would.

The plan apparently is to play Rivers 3 downs. Lawson is good in coverage. I am not saying that either is great but LB now has to fall behind RT, WR, DE and TE IMO. Between Kiko, Spikes, Lawson, Rivers and Bradham they are okay (especially in a 4-3). They could use another but not at the expense of those other positions.
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So...I'm not arguing the need for versatility...I get that...But you have to gauge the value of versatility against the value of another prospect that can offer much more while using a premium Draft pick...Especially a 1st or 2nd round pick...How big is the need of versatility for a position that NFL teams are playing an average of 2 guys on 57% of Defensive snaps? You want to utilize a premium pick for versatility on Defense? Then I would much rather see the Bills use a premium pick on a big Safety. Because a big Safety is going to be on the field for 100% of the Defensive snaps...

 

If a guy like Skov is the best prospect available in the 3rd round I can see that...But he's not going to be the BPA in the 2nd round...I can all but guarantee that much...Especially in this Draft... B-)

 

This.

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We are fine with the TEs we have. While I really want Evans if he's available when we select I would also be happy with either Mosley (best pure ILB in the draft) or A. Barr (big LB) to match-up & shut down opposing TEs.

 

The only reason I don't mention K Mack is that I don't expect him to be available when we pick.

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