EJ knee surgery, Tim Graham questions, draft QB?

[yungmack]

The Bills might take a QB late in the draft but I don't think they will draft one of the top QBs in this year because that would essentially be saying to EJ "Bye bye." I think this coming year is the full-on, EJ Is The Man season. If he doesn't get hurt, and if he plays very well, then we can all relax. On the other hand, if he flounders again, then the Bills draft a QB in 2015. For my money, I'd target Marcus Mariota. I've watched him a lot, and he keeps taking huge steps forward. To me, he looks like a hybrid of Kaepernick and Russell Wilson.

[K-9]

I have a feeling that if both KC and AZ were in the exact same situation this year as last, they would both make the same trades for Smith and Palmer, respectively. Like last season, there is no QB available that's better than either Smith or Palmer at the moment. Both veterans were able to provide quick turnarounds for their new teams. I'm not surprised, either. Both are still very good QBs.

 

GO BILLS!!!

[FireChan]

I have a feeling that if both KC and AZ were in the exact same situation this year as last, they would both make the same trades for Smith and Palmer, respectively. Like last season, there is no QB available that's better than either Smith or Palmer at the moment. Both veterans were able to provide quick turnarounds for their new teams. I'm not surprised, either. Both are still very good QBs.

 

GO BILLS!!!

 

Palmer?

[K-9]

Palmer?

 

Yep.

 

Nobody in AZ is complaining about that deal now.

 

GO BILLS!!!

[FireChan]

Yep.

 

Nobody in AZ is complaining about that deal now.

 

GO BILLS!!!

 

Oh wow, I thought he for sure threw more picks than TD's. Carry on.

[K-9]

Oh wow, I thought he for sure threw more picks than TD's. Carry on.

 

You are incorrect.

 

GO BILLS!!!

[FireChan]

 

 

You are incorrect.

 

GO BILLS!!!

 

I know. I said that.

[BADOLBILZ]

Crazy how one of the (potentially) best trades in the last 2 decades can be classified as stupid.

By your reasoning the Bills should have traded UP to get Manuel if they really really wanted him- pissing away later/future draft picks in the process.

 

No, by my reasoning they didn't think EJ warranted a top ten selection.

[FireChan]

 

 

Not this time, I had assumed that Carson sucked in his new town, because the only time I saw him on the highlights he had at least 2 picks. After you said his name, I looked up his numbers and was surprised. Hence the "I totally thought he sucked, carry on" post.

[BADOLBILZ]

no offense but your knees aren't as important as a professional QBs knees in the NFL. His doctors are better and his treatment is better. Now to your claim to "no clean ups for scar tissue". That goes along with the other part about your knee not being as important as his. If there's even the slightest little bit of scarring in his knees, you better believe that his Billion dollar company will have it cleaned up so there aren't any future issues. He had multiple issues with his knees this year, there's scar tissue. Believe it.

 

Since you are playing doctor why did the "Billion dollar health plan" not prevent re-injury of the knee that had surgery 3 months earlier?

 

No offense, but there is a misconception about just how efficiently injuries are managed in the NFL. Anytime the subject is a 20-something male you are going to be up against indecision and subject to bad decision regarless of how good your surgeon is.

[Dawgg]

Agreed, they either had less than full conviction on EJ or they were just being stupid.

 

In this case, the answer is likely that they just weren't fully sold on EJ and were willing to take the chance that he may be gone by the time they picked.

 

You don't trade back and then select your sure-fire franchise QB. You can pass on any other position on the field and hope to get them later but when it is QB you are literally saying that you can move on without that QB if he isn't there the next time you pick.

 

I don't necessarily agree with this notion. The Ravens, knowing they wanted to target Joe Flacco, traded down with Cleveland and took Flacco later in the first round. Doesn't indicate a lack of confidence in Flacco as much as it does their command for how Round 1 would unfold. In fact, the whole world knew when they made the decision to trade down that the Ravens were targeting a QB later on. My view: the Bills were sold on EJ from the start and fell so much in love with him that they drafted him a full round too early.

[C.Biscuit97]

I don't necessarily agree with this notion. The Ravens, knowing they wanted to target Joe Flacco, traded down with Cleveland and took Flacco later in the first round. Doesn't indicate a lack of confidence in Flacco as much as it does their command for how Round 1 would unfold. In fact, the whole world knew when they made the decision to trade down that the Ravens were targeting a QB later on. My view: the Bills were sold on EJ from the start and fell so much in love with him that they drafted him a full round too early.

 

agreed on the 1st part. As for the 2nd, they should risk passing on a QB they fell in love because of Mel Kiper's rankings? I know it's hard to believe but teams don't go by Kiper or McShay's draft boards.

[dave mcbride]

Oh wow, I thought he for sure threw more picks than TD's. Carry on.

He threw more TDs than picks, but more importantly averaged 7.5 ypa. The previous year, the Cardinals' QBs collectively averaged a disastrous 5.6 ypa.

 

So yes, Palmer was a huge upgrade given the circumstances. For all the criticisms of him, he's led teams to 10+ wins three times in his career, which is more than the Bills have achieved since 1999. He'll probably pass Jim Kelly in career yardage next year too, and there's a decent chance he'll pass him in TDs. He's 24 behind him, and he threw 24 this past season.

 

EDIT: Firechan, I wrote this before I saw your final response.

 

I don't necessarily agree with this notion. The Ravens, knowing they wanted to target Joe Flacco, traded down with Cleveland and took Flacco later in the first round. Doesn't indicate a lack of confidence in Flacco as much as it does their command for how Round 1 would unfold. In fact, the whole world knew when they made the decision to trade down that the Ravens were targeting a QB later on. My view: the Bills were sold on EJ from the start and fell so much in love with him that they drafted him a full round too early.

Yep. Good post, although the last part is questionable and certainly TBD. Interestingly, the Bills took Tony Hunter at #12, reasoning that they'd get either Marino or Kelly at #14. The Lions drafted a fullback, so they ended up with Kelly. But they apparently close to equally high on both.

Edited February 5, 2014 by dave mcbride

[C.Biscuit97]

He threw more TDs than picks, but more importantly averaged 7.5 ypa. The previous year, the Cardinals' QBs collectively averaged a disastrous 5.6 ypa.

 

So yes, Palmer was a huge upgrade given the circumstances. For all the criticisms of him, he's led teams to 10+ wins three times in his career, which is more than the Bills have achieved since 1999. He'll probably pass Jim Kelly in career yardage next year too, and there's a decent chance he'll pass him in TDs. He's 24 behind him, and he threw 24 this past season.

 

EDIT: Firechan, I wrote this before I saw your final response.

 

 

Yep. Good post, although the last part is questionable and certainly TBD. Interestingly, the Bills took Tony Hunter at #12, reasoning that they'd get either Marino or Kelly at #14. The Lions drafted a fullback, so they ended up with Kelly. But they apparently close to equally high on both.

 

Palmer played a million times better than I expected, but Arizona's #6 ranked D is the main reason they won 10 games. No matter how hard people try to act like one position makes, football is still the ultimate team game.

[dave mcbride]

Palmer played a million times better than I expected, but Arizona's #6 ranked D is the main reason they won 10 games. No matter how hard people try to act like one position makes, football is still the ultimate team game.

 

Don't disagree, but the Cards' D was good the year before too (12th overall) and second in the league in INTs as well as fourthi in forced turnovers. Plus opposing QBs had only a 71.2 rating against them. The QB position was an utter disaster, and the main reason why they only won 5 games.

Edited February 5, 2014 by dave mcbride

[C.Biscuit97]

Don't disagree, but the Cards' D was good the year before too (12th overall) and second in the league in INTs as well as fourthi in forced turnovers. Plus opposing QBs had only a 71.2 rating against them. The QB position was an utter disaster, and the main reason why they only won 5 games.

 

Yup. As the SB proved, no matter how great a QB is, a better overall team is probably going to be superior. Wilson is a good QB who plays with a great D.

[1billsfan]

Yup. As the SB proved, no matter how great a QB is, a better overall team is probably going to be superior. Wilson is a good QB who plays with a great D.

 

IMO, there was a very noticeable difference in intensity between the two teams. Yes, it turns out the Seahawks were the much better team, but you could tell from the start that the Broncos were not ready for the fight they were going to get from the Seahawks.

 

This Superbowl will serve as a very good recent example for what can happen to a team that comes from a soft conference and doesn't come to play at it's highest and most intense level. The AFC is very soft again like it was in the 80's.

[NoSaint]

 

 

agreed on the 1st part. As for the 2nd, they should risk passing on a QB they fell in love because of Mel Kiper's rankings? I know it's hard to believe but teams don't go by Kiper or McShay's draft boards.

 

yea, but theres more than just draft grades - especially for round 1 qbs. its a position, more than any other that is dictated by need so you can easily cross a lot of teams off the list without considering how they may have the qb rated. in our case we still rolled the dice that the NYJs, or oakland wouldnt pull the trigger - which i think someone else mentioned may be an indicator that they had another qb theyd feel comfortable with also. i normally say just take your guy if you see him, grades be damned, but i cant fault them for getting their guy AND some extra.

[Nanker]

I'm not sure why you're getting upset over my opinion.

 

I post quite a bit during the months leading up to the draft, and if you want to check my post history, you'll see that I absolutely advocated taking a DT--be it Richardson or Lotuleilei in the first if they were there. Not because I wanted a DT, rather because I wanted a top 10 talent.

 

Overall though, I think you missed the point of my post, which was that I prefer to get a top 10 talent and draft for need later on rather than to forgo the top talent in favor of more players. This is especially true given the quality (note, not quantity) of players the team drafted with their 2nd, 3rd, and 4th picks. The crux of my statement is that they clearly did a good job of identifying talented guys with those next few picks, and I expect them to do the same this year.

 

If you want to pick that opinion apart by bringing up Duke Williams as a counterpoint to their player evaluation, well, I don't think we're on the same page.

 

Upset? Upset? I'm not upset at all. I just asked for a simple explanation of your comment that the FO did such "a fine job of filling needs in rounds 2-4 last year," when as I pointed out by far the best player they took was Kiko and the only way they got him was by trading down. Goodwin and Williams did not contribute much last year... at all.

 

You're nuts if you think I'm going to go back and look at last year's posts.

[thebandit27]

Upset? Upset? I'm not upset at all.

 

This definitely sounds like you're upset:

 

Explain how they would have done so well without trading down to pick up Kiko in the 2nd with the Rams pick, and getting Marques in the 3rd with the swapped pick of the Rams. Then they picked the mighty Duke Williams in the 4th who played in 5 games and managed 5 tackles.

So not trading down and taking Austin instead of EJ AND Kiko with the added pick would have been preferable? Please don't say you'd have advocated taking Sheldon Richardson at 9. We weren't taking a DT in round 1 in 2013.

 

Also, it's a bit two-sided to tell someone what their own opinion was, and then turn around and be totally unwilling to look into it for yourself....unless, of course, you intend to take me at my word, in which case my only issue would be your telling me what my opinion was a year ago.

 

Upset? Upset? I'm not upset at all. I just asked for a simple explanation of your comment that the FO did such "a fine job of filling needs in rounds 2-4 last year," when as I pointed out by far the best player they took was Kiko and the only way they got him was by trading down. Goodwin and Williams did not contribute much last year... at all.

 

You're nuts if you think I'm going to go back and look at last year's posts.

 

Yes, the team did a fine job of filling needs. They needed a starting WR, they got one in Robert Woods. If we're playing the if-then game, then I suppose there's no way to know if they'd have gotten Kiko in the 3rd--again, that's not the point. The point of my post was that the team clearly did a good job of evaluating the talent that was available. Look no further than Goodwin if you question that...to say he did not contribute much, when he was the team's only deep threat to speak of, is misguided IMO, especially in light of the tumultuous state of the QB position last year. It's probably worth noting that Goodwin was the only Bills' WR to catch a TD from all 3 QBs.

 

I'm also not sure what you were expecting from Duke Williams...the team went into the season with 3 veteran safeties ahead of him on the depth chart, and then added Jim Leonhard for insurance when Byrd wasn't ready. Exactly which of those guys was a rookie 4th round pick supposed to beat out?

 

Regardless, I already explained my position on this issue: the team clearly did a good job of identifying talented players that would be available after the first round. I'm content that they'll do a good job of drafting those guys, so I'd prefer that they increase their odds of getting an elite player by drafting in the top 10 and not trading down.