DC Tom Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 This is the manic phase of bipolar disorder. As a manic-depressive myself, I'd like to say: It's funny 'cause it's completely true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jamie Nails Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 ANALyTICS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BackInDaDay Posted January 2, 2014 Author Share Posted January 2, 2014 I think we were looking for this year's starter while EJ was inked in as #2. They didn't want to divide #1 reps between 3 guys, so they showed TJax the door as soon as Kolb looked better in shorts. Alas, that plan (like Kolb) didn't survive the first encounter with the Enemy Bath Mat much less the Enemy. i agree, but since Kolb and the current crop of available FA veteran QBs are irrelevant to our 2014 plans, it would be wise of the Bills to understand the impact of their actions before making them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prickly Pete Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 As a manic-depressive myself, I'd like to say: It's funny 'cause it's completely true. I know some BPD's, and it's right on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dibs Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 (edited) that is a concise summary, but the intelligence in any analysis lies in the details. how often does our 1st round pick from 2013 get a chance to prepare during the season and refine his game? what are the possibilities that both he and an additional high draft pick in 2014 can receive the attention necessary to grow to their potential? what scenarios leave us with a backup that has either 1 year, or no experience playing QB in the NFL? my worst fear from looking at the Bills O this year, is that our OC approaches his work with the same disdain you view this.. but hey, different strokes.. I didn't mean to cause offense(and would have written that I appreciate the effort and elaborated on what I wrote had I not been posting from my stupid tablet grrrr.). I don't actually view your post with any disdain what-so-ever.......and if you have ever seen some of my own data type posts, you'd know that I would indeed be a hypocrite to suggest disdain at other data driven posts. My suggestion of reducing the lengthy list of results/options down to a summary was not to imply that you should leave out details.....merely to say that you could have reduced it greatly in size.....thus enabling more people to digest your points. As I showed, all of the 1's were the same.....as were all of the 2's. My "yada yada" and "blah, blah" were supposed to represent several paragraphs of options for the 3's & 4's(adding the details in for each into two sections rather than spread throughout). The reason why I made the comment was that your post is I think the longest post that I have ever seen. It is a sad concept, but I am sure that most of the people that you would feel could learn something from your data would not bother reading through the whole thing. You obviously put a great deal of work into it.....and I was endeavoring to give some helpful advice(from somebody who has posted similar data driven long posts many times). As I didn't say it before.....good work. (....and I will never be posting from my hard to type on tablet again. PC all the way for me in future.) Edited January 2, 2014 by Dibs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hapless Bills Fan Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 i agree, but since Kolb and the current crop of available FA veteran QBs are irrelevant to our 2014 plans, it would be wise of the Bills to understand the impact of their actions before making them Hindsight is always 20-20, so one can never understand the actual impact of one's actions before making them. And it's possible (I hope remote) that Kolb is not, in fact, irrelevant to the Bills 2014 plans. The main point I was making is that your analysis could be summarized as saying, QB reps are not infinite, so if we add a QB (through FA or draft) we need to be prepared to either cut a QB, or hinder the development of either EJ or the hypothetical new guy by limiting their reps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dezertbill Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 I like pie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prickly Pete Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Hindsight is always 20-20, so one can never understand the actual impact of one's actions before making them. And it's possible (I hope remote) that Kolb is not, in fact, irrelevant to the Bills 2014 plans. The main point I was making is that your analysis could be summarized as saying, QB reps are not infinite, so if we add a QB (through FA or draft) we need to be prepared to either cut a QB, or hinder the development of either EJ or the hypothetical new guy by limiting their reps. I haven't given Kolb a thought. I can't see why they would bring him back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BackInDaDay Posted January 2, 2014 Author Share Posted January 2, 2014 I didn't mean to cause offense(and would have written that I appreciate the effort and elaborated on what I wrote had I not been posting from my stupid tablet grrrr.). I don't actually view your post with any disdain what-so-ever.......and if you have ever seen some of my own data type posts, you'd know that I would indeed be a hypocrite to suggest disdain at other data driven posts. My suggestion of reducing the lengthy list of results/options down to a summary was not to imply that you should leave out details.....merely to say that you could have reduced it greatly in size.....thus enabling more people to digest your points. As I showed, all of the 1's were the same.....as were all of the 2's. My "yada yada" and "blah, blah" were supposed to represent several paragraphs of options for the 3's & 4's(adding the details in for each into two sections rather than spread throughout). The reason why I made the comment was that your post is I think the longest post that I have ever seen. It is a sad concept, but I am sure that most of the people that you would feel could learn something from your data would not bother reading through the whole thing. You obviously put a great deal of work into it.....and I was endeavoring to give some helpful advice(from somebody who has posted similar data driven long posts many times). As I didn't say it before.....good work. (....and I will never be posting from my hard to type on tablet again. PC all the way for me in future.) no problem Dibs, sorry for jumping to the conclusion that you were being dismissive. I'm aware of the attention span of most of us.. frankly, i only read the damn thing to 'proof' it.. i doubt i would take the time to digest it again, otherwise. please feel free to edit if you think you can draw the point out better than i could. no wonder they canned me at Reader's Digest! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mark Vader Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 currently mentoring a new generation of mainframe developers in application design, but yes.. i evolved ( or i like to think i have) from the swampy pits of mouth-breathin', knuckle-draggin', mainframe programmers. In that case, you should change your name from BackInDaDay to LivingInTheNow. Seriously though, great post. What you put forth is very likely. I would like to see the Bills draft another QB, because I see this year's QB class as deep with talent. However, I am not giving up on Manuel, so I would be against an open QB competition. I do think that we can have serious competition at our back-up QB position, with QB X possibly becoming good enough to be a starter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rocky Landing Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 I would think that given Marrone's recent statements regarding Manuel, and the lack of experience in our back-ups (and I am making an assumption that Kolb will not be here next season), that it would not be unlikely for the Bills to bring in another veteran in the offseason- hopefully someone a little sturdier than Kolb. So, to the OP: Would you please write another analysis outlining all of the various results from a 4-way QB competition involving Manuel, Lewis, Tuel, and veteran X? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BackInDaDay Posted January 2, 2014 Author Share Posted January 2, 2014 Hindsight is always 20-20, so one can never understand the actual impact of one's actions before making them. And it's possible (I hope remote) that Kolb is not, in fact, irrelevant to the Bills 2014 plans. The main point I was making is that your analysis could be summarized as saying, QB reps are not infinite, so if we add a QB (through FA or draft) we need to be prepared to either cut a QB, or hinder the development of either EJ or the hypothetical new guy by limiting their reps. i have to disagree there.. i'm not talking about hindsight. i'm talking about deriving a sound plan based on a finite set of resources, requirements and expectations. we know our resources - Manuel, Lewis, and Tuel. we know what we have to have entering the season - a starter who gives us a chance to win, a credible backup, and a project with potential. we know what we expect - that our #1 pick will start and continue to progress, that our 4 year vet backup will be productive when called on, and our young project will continue to develop. you may be right about the Bills being interested in keeping Kolb around, but as i said, he could only supplant Lewis. he's no better that the other FA QBs out there, and he's definitely at a disadvantage to Lewis in terms of executing the offense. i believe Manuel and Lewis have more potential than Kolb, so i wouldn't waste time with him. if he's going to have a comeback year, god bless him, but have it somewhere else. we're better off introducing a drafted project to compete with Tuel than threatening Lewis' role with Kolb. i see no point to that. as far as practice reps go - 3rd stringers don't practice with the first O in season. so any young QB with potential you want to keep around for a rainy day as your 3rd - whether it's Tuel or rookie X - will die on the vine unless he's given the scout team to run. at least there he can work against NFL defensive starters, and get a feel on how DCs in the NFL defend NFL offenses. i only put the 4th QB in my mix for arguments sake - there's a possibility that some 4th stringer would capture the staff's imagination enough to keep their #3 on the active roster and place #4 on the practice squad. but then what do you do? take turns having 3 and 4 run the scout team? no way. so that's just an unrealistic option thrown in to emphasize who might be banished there under certain results. I would think that given Marrone's recent statements regarding Manuel, and the lack of experience in our back-ups (and I am making an assumption that Kolb will not be here next season), that it would not be unlikely for the Bills to bring in another veteran in the offseason- hopefully someone a little sturdier than Kolb. So, to the OP: Would you please write another analysis outlining all of the various results from a 4-way QB competition involving Manuel, Lewis, Tuel, and veteran X? "they're killing me, Whitey!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BackInDaDay Posted January 2, 2014 Author Share Posted January 2, 2014 (edited) In that case, you should change your name from BackInDaDay to LivingInTheNow. Seriously though, great post. What you put forth is very likely. I would like to see the Bills draft another QB, because I see this year's QB class as deep with talent. However, I am not giving up on Manuel, so I would be against an open QB competition. I do think that we can have serious competition at our back-up QB position, with QB X possibly becoming good enough to be a starter. thanks, i think it's very possible that we would draft a project to compete with Tuel. our coaches and GM though well enough about Tuel to protect him on our active roster, so with other needs to fill, it would have to be an impressive draftee at a low round. one thought of highly enough to take Tuel's spot. Edited January 2, 2014 by BackInDaDay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dibs Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 thanks, i think it's very possible that we would draft a project to compete with Tuel. our coaches and GM though well enough about Tuel to protect him on our active roster, so with other needs to fill, it would have to be an impressive draftee at a low round. one thought of highly enough to take Tuel's spot. Though none of us know what the Bills are actually planning, I tend to agree with Rocky Landing's assessment(though not his extremely funny line urging you to another full breakdown). The FO seems to be placing a very high importance on making the playoffs next year. As it stands we are reliant upon improvement in either EJ or Thad(or both) to provide better QB play in order to achieve this. As it would be very doubtful that a rookie(even a top prospect) would be able to provide better QB play than we saw this season, it leads me to think a veteran FA will be obtained in case EJ does not improve as hoped for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Barbarian Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 (edited) possibly, or perhaps it's just an attempt to validate one's intuitive conclusion to a results oriented 'game' with a comprehensive matrix of possibilities. or maybe it's the damn champagne talking. currently mentoring a new generation of mainframe developers in application design, but yes.. i evolved ( or i like to think i have) from the swampy pits of mouth-breathin', knuckle-draggin', mainframe programmers. you should totally apply for the Bills analytics department. Edited January 2, 2014 by Buffalo Barbarian Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PolishDave Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Nice post. I like If - Then types of analysis. A couple of points I would like to add based on my own opinion only. 1)Kolb is going to be gone period. 2) If Bills draft a QB, then either EJ, Lewis or Tuel will get cut. 3) If at any point Tuel moved above Lewis or EJ on the ranking chart, then one of the lower two would be cut right away (probably EJ) 4) Human nature being what it is, I suspect that the coach will play EJ non-stop claiming he still has upside even if EJ flounders. I predict this because humans would rather prove themselves right than admit they screwed up and move on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filthymcnasty08 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 My conclusion: Finkel is Einhorn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BringBackFergy Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Be advised that there's a chance that his reply to you will take the form of a complex algorithm. LOL, nice one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BackInDaDay Posted January 2, 2014 Author Share Posted January 2, 2014 Nice post. I like If - Then types of analysis. A couple of points I would like to add based on my own opinion only. 1)Kolb is going to be gone period. 2) If Bills draft a QB, then either EJ, Lewis or Tuel will get cut. 3) If at any point Tuel moved above Lewis or EJ on the ranking chart, then one of the lower two would be cut right away (probably EJ) 4) Human nature being what it is, I suspect that the coach will play EJ non-stop claiming he still has upside even if EJ flounders. I predict this because humans would rather prove themselves right than admit they screwed up and move on. Thanks.. i think your points 3 and 4 are well taken. There are consequences to allowing an open competition dictate terms to the team. actual fairness in evaluating talent may be superceded by the perception of fairness, in order to skew the results and thus, the options. Ask Sciano if he would attempt to influence Freeman's election to captaincy again. Anyway, that's why I added this before laying things out.. "I’ll let the reader complete their opinions of the given options with their knowledge of where they believe the organization prioritizes a player’s origins – such as whether he was drafted (and what round), undrafted, or picked from the PS. For those of you who believe this influences the decision making, where rookie X is drafted may skew the options. Personally, I don’t believe any option that involves the release of Manuel or a ‘high draft pick’ X is realistic, but Darwin would have insisted." a more realistic set of options could be gained if the resources competing were 'weighted' by other relevant attributes such as financial and developmental commitments. I just considered results based on how the players impressed with their skills. Of course, Lewis'practice squad status had to be taken into account to accurately portray some of the options that factored into. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
All_Pro_Bills Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Kudos to the OP for the lengthy analysis of the options presented. Whether I agree or not I am impressed by the amount of thought and effort that went into it. In my view it will be a major mistake for the Bills to go into the 2014 assuming that EJ Manuel, or Lewis, or Tuel, can be a consistent and competent starting NFL caliber QB in 2014. EJ's grade to this point is incomplete given his the amount of practice and playing time he missed in pre-season and the regular season. His performance was uneven and in my opinion even declined as the season progressed. The team needs to consider a veteran free agent option. I wouldn't go so far as to suggest they should pursue a guy like Cutler but there will be some options out there that should be considered in the event EJ does not progress. Unless they believe Lewis or Tuel will be adaquate in place of EJ you can't take that risk. The bottom line is that given what we've seen to this point I can't see how anyone can conclude with any certainty that EJ is up to the task of playing the NFL QB position at a high performance level. High enough to get this team into the playoffs and make the one or two big time plays needed to win those close games that will get the team to the 10 or 11 win level. The Marrone plan was for year one to be the time for on the job training for EJ. The fact that circumstances prevented it from producing the desired result doesn't mean it shifts to year two. With the foundations of a solid defense and the expectation that a few weak spots on both sides of the ball are going to get addressed this team can't afford to 'nurse' a 2nd year QB while all other areas of the team are 'playoff ready'. They owe it to the fans and veteran players not to 'waste' another year on developing a QB that may or may not develop. Spend the money to bring in somebody that has already demonstrated the abiltiy to do the job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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