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Fred Jackson...advanced metrics


Kemp2Warlick

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Statistical analysis is deadly accurate when using large groups. The problem is projecting that to an individual. People beat the odds all the time especially exceptional individuals and Fred Jackson is certainly one of those. Sooner or later the years will catch up to him. I will bet the later.

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Anyone who watches the Bills on a regular basis can see the obvious: FredX is the best offensive player on the team. And his value goes way beyond the stats (as good as they are), but also his leadership and example. Yes, one of these days he will hit that tipping point of his age catching up to him. But until then, watch and enjoy what a true profession we have in Fred Jackson.

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great find; thanks.

 

The key graph, however (which echoes a point I made in another thread):

 

"Let’s note a few things here. First, NEP numbers are lower for running backs compared to passers and receivers because running the ball is far less effective than throwing it. That doesn’t mean that rushing should be eliminated from the game of football, but it does tell us that throwing the football will yield more offensive success than running it. And that’s pretty evident when you watch the majority of NFL teams in today’s game."

 

The passing game has been the Bills problem for years because of the QB problems. Chan Gailey was a great passing game coach, fwiw.

Edited by dave mcbride
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great find; thanks.

 

The key graph, however (which echoes a point I made in another thread):

 

"Let’s note a few things here. First, NEP numbers are lower for running backs compared to passers and receivers because running the ball is far less effective than throwing it. That doesn’t mean that rushing should be eliminated from the game of football, but it does tell us that throwing the football will yield more offensive success than running it. And that’s pretty evident when you watch the majority of NFL teams in today’s game."

 

The passing game has been the Bills problem for years because of the QB problems. Chan Gailey was a great passing game coach, fwiw.

I hope he gets a chance to come back in the league. I have wondered what he would do with a team like Detroit. Having Reggie Bush, Calvin Johnson, and Stafford would be interesting.
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This article is excellent as it demonstrates what knowledgable football fans can see. Fred gets the tough yards! He always falls forward, has excellent balance, and when we are 3rd and 3, Marrone realized to trust Fred, not CJ. The exception was the Bucs game and we paid for it. I was at the game and when CJ was on the field we had so many negative plays.

 

Don't misunderstand I like Spiller, but he is better suited for the spread offense as it opens more holes, and not as much crowding in the box. This is what Gailey knew about Spiller, but when you go max protect like the Ravens game with big Frank, the Tank plowing a hole, Fred is much more productive than Spiller in the same packages. Now when Spiller is healthy, and in the spread, he gives us those elusive runs and at the second level can break for 70 yards. Fred is not as fast so he can get caught.

 

I love them both and we have a sound running game. Other than my guess in Spillers health, a problem is Hackett. I think he is over his head, and you just wonder if a OC like Kubiak, or even Gailey, what we could have done.

 

I do agree with the previous post in the deficit is in the passing game with EJ and the other 10 QB's before him since 2000. For the people that bash SJ and the other WR (except Graham as he has stone hands) they can't throw to themselves. I'm not focused on the draft yet, but god we need a pass catching TE, and a big WR. dump Graham, and add these two weapons with a year of development for EJ, and we could contend.

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