I still believe in EJ Manuel

[MDH]

> As a prospect Manuel was rawer than many other prospects.

 

The other day I watched Manuel's college highlight video. 90 - 95% of what I saw consisted either of a) Manuel running the ball, or b) Manuel throwing to ridiculously wide-open targets. I saw little evidence of Manuel going to his second read, let alone his third or fourth read. I was dumbfounded that the Bills would use a first round pick on a QB whose highlight reel was as lacking as that!

 

 

Oh, come one. A highlight reel? How about you go study the game tape like the scouts and front office staff did? Highlight tapes are about big plays so they cherry pick those. Guess what, big plays guys tend to be wide open that's how they end up being big plays. Nobody is putting together a highlight reel of a guy threading it to a WR in a tight spot for 12 yards. Granted, I don't know how many of those throws he had in college but to be dumbfounded because his highlight reel lacked those specific elements it laughable.

[eball]

Oh, come one. A highlight reel? How about you go study the game tape like the scouts and front office staff did? Highlight tapes are about big plays so they cherry pick those. Guess what, big plays guys tend to be wide open that's how they end up being big plays. Nobody is putting together a highlight reel of a guy threading it to a WR in a tight spot for 12 yards. Granted, I don't know how many of those throws he had in college but to be dumbfounded because his highlight reel lacked those specific elements it laughable.

 

So you're telling me a 4-minute video isn't a fair representation of a 4-year, 40+ game career?

 

Crazy talk.

[BillsFan-4-Ever]

I just want to see a marked improvement in EJ's play and most of all to see the big fat W

[thebandit27]

Oh, come one. A highlight reel? How about you go study the game tape like the scouts and front office staff did? Highlight tapes are about big plays so they cherry pick those. Guess what, big plays guys tend to be wide open that's how they end up being big plays. Nobody is putting together a highlight reel of a guy threading it to a WR in a tight spot for 12 yards. Granted, I don't know how many of those throws he had in college but to be dumbfounded because his highlight reel lacked those specific elements it laughable.

 

This whole discussion is about cherry picking. If someone wants to declare EJ a bust, all they have to do is point to the Jets and Steelers games and call it case-closed. If someone wants to declare that EJ can make the plays needed to be an NFL QB, all they have to do is point to a handful of plays like the Chandler throw that set up the Woods TD vs. NE, the Stevie TD vs. NE, and the final drive against Carolina and their point is readily made.

 

If you ask me (and nobody did), both sides would be over-stating their argument. It's been 6 games (5-1/2 really), concluding anything from that sample size is simply poor evaluation skill.

[JohnC]

The above text sounds good. The problem is that you could write the exact same thing for any team which uses a first round pick on a QB. You could have written those exact same words for Denver after the Tebow pick, for crying out loud! Every team's fans hopes that their team's front office does a better, more thorough job of vetting QB prospects than an average NFL team would do. Unfortunately, there's no objective reason to believe the Bills' front office does an above-average job of evaluating QB prospects.

 

 

 

You are absolutely right that there are no guarantees that your first round qb is going to be an automatic success. That isn't what I have been saying. What I am saying is that for most qbs, including first round selections, there is a developmental stage. There are few instant successes. Drew Brees is going to be a first ballot HOF inductee. He didn't have instant success. Aaron Rodgers sat on the bench for three years before he got an opportunity to play. He used that practice time to learn his craft so when he got the belated opportunity he took off like a rocket.

 

Manuel fits the profile of a standard-issue first round bust. He's got great physical tools, but never established himself as a good pocket passer at the college level. Whenever I see a team use a first round selection on a QB like that, my assumption is that he'll be a bust. I cannot think of a single case where that assumption was later disproved.

 

There are no guarantees. A high percentage of first round picks don't make the grade. That is the challenge. Where I strenuously disagree with you is that I'm going to give him a fair opportunity to succeed before I declare him a bust. If he doesn't work out then you simply go on to the next option. How else are you going to do it?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I disagree. Look at the Packers team that Aaron Rodgers carried to a Super Bowl win. After accounting for their injuries, do you really think they had that much more talent than we could have after the 2014 offseason and draft? If Manuel became the next Aaron Rodgers, the Bills would be highly likely to go to the playoffs. With a good draft in 2014, we might even be a legitimate Super Bowl contender.

 

The problem with all this is that Manuel isn't the next Aaron Rodgers. Or anything remotely close.

 

Aaron Rodgers is arguably the best qb in the game. There is no doubt that qbs such as Peyton, Brady and Brees elevate their respective deficient teams. All these qbs are HOF players. If that is the standard you are holding out for then that position for the Bills will be vacant for a lot longer period of time. At this point my desire is for a competent franchise qb. Let's not get too greedy or outlandishly wishful.

 

 

Edited November 14, 2013 by JohnC

[Gordio]

 

 

One of my major problems I have with your "quick" assessment of EJ is that you are to a large extent making a judgment on highlight films that you have observed. That is a very small slice of his performances to make a judgment on.

 

You don't think that this organization expended a lot of time and effort in comparing EJ to the other top qb prospects in last year's draft? All the candidates were thoroughly vetted and compared against one another. The staff to a large extent was investing in the success of their careers with their selection.

 

Will EJ develop into a legitimate franchise qb? I'm not foolish enough to say that I know for sure. What I know for sure is that it is too early in his injury riddled rookie year to make a confident judgment.

 

Whatever assets that Barkley and Nassib have over EJ are negated by their physical limitations. If you are going to take a risk on a qb then I would rather do so with the qb who has greater physical tools.

 

Let me be blunt to the extent that it will irritate a lot of the apologists who follow this team. EJ Manuel is not playing on a good team. This current team as it was constituted was not going to be a playoff caliber team nor even capable of having a winning record. EJ is a rookie qb on a mediocre team. That is also a factor that has hindered him. Let me also add that the Bills will not be a playoff team nexr year no matter how much EJ improves. This team has too many holes to fill for this languid organization to fill next year. When you are $20 M under the cap this year and are rolling in salary into next year what does that say about the organization's determination to get good as soon as possible? My point is that the qb position is a critical issue but there are so many more issues that need to be dealt with before the team becomes a serious team.

 

I disagree with your assessment on the team. This team is lacking a bit in the depth department, but they are ready to win now. The one place that they are lacking is the QB position. If they had above average QB play this year they would have 6-7 wins so far & would be right in the middle of the playoff race. Yes the QB position is that important. I can not stand it when people on this board minimize the effect a good QB has on the team. The whole dynamics of the team change. So please save the BS about how they are not ready to win this year, next year, the year after that. It is all excuses. Get a good QB on this team & this team is a playoff contender. My hope is Manuel takes that next step next year & becomes a QB you could rate in the top half of the league. Because if that happens, the Bills will compete for a playoff spot.

[JohnC]

 

 

I disagree with your assessment on the team. This team is lacking a bit in the depth department, but they are ready to win now. The one place that they are lacking is the QB position. If they had above average QB play this year they would have 6-7 wins so far & would be right in the middle of the playoff race. Yes the QB position is that important. I can not stand it when people on this board minimize the effect a good QB has on the team. The whole dynamics of the team change. So please save the BS about how they are not ready to win this year, next year, the year after that. It is all excuses. Get a good QB on this team & this team is a playoff contender. My hope is Manuel takes that next step next year & becomes a QB you could rate in the top half of the league. Because if that happens, the Bills will compete for a playoff spot.

 

 

 

There was absolutely no chance that this team was going to be a playoff team this year. The Bills were rebuilding around a rookie starting qb. What is unfolding this season is not a surprise. Maybe for you, but not for me. The lack of depth on an average roster is not a recipe for success. All teams will face numerous injuries. It is the nature of a crash sport. If you don't have adequate depth to replace the predictable injured players then you are going to struggle as the season advances. You don't think that being $20 M under the cap is a factor in the lack of depth?

 

I agree with you that the qb issue is the most important issue. But this team has a lot of holes on the OL, receiver corps, defensive backfield and LBing corps. The league is not static. Just because a team may be getting better that doesn't mean other teams are not getting better at a faster rate.

 

Every year your version of an inflated assessment of this team is declared. Every year the end results prove otherwise. I'm not throwing in the towel but I realize where this organization stands relative to its competitors. The Bills still have a long way to go. The Bills are not going to be a playoff team this year, and I don't believe this franchise has the talent base to make it next year. That's my opinion. I respectfully disagree with your judgment.

Edited November 14, 2013 by JohnC

[Orton's Arm]

You are absolutely right that there are no guarantees that your first round qb is going to be an automatic success. That isn't what I have been saying. What I am saying is that for most qbs, including first round selections, there is a developmental stage. There are few instant successes. Drew Brees is going to be a first ballot HOF inductee. He didn't have instant success. Aaron Rodgers sat on the bench for three years before he got an opportunity to play. He used that practice time to learn his craft so when he got the belated opportunity he took off like a rocket.

 

There are no guarantees. A high percentage of first round picks don't make the grade. That is the challenge. Where I strenuously disagree with you is that I'm going to give him a fair opportunity to succeed before I declare him a bust. If he doesn't work out then you simply go on to the next option. How else are you going to do it?

 

Aaron Rodgers is arguably the best qb in the game. There is no doubt that qbs such as Peyton, Brady and Brees elevate their respective deficient teams. All these qbs are HOF players. If that is the standard you are holding out for then that position for the Bills will be vacant for a lot longer period of time. At this point my desire is for a competent franchise qb. Let's not get too greedy or outlandishly wishful.

 

> What I am saying is that for most qbs, including first round selections, there is a developmental stage.

 

I agree. Peyton Manning didn't look great his rookie year. Drew Brees took a while to develop. Your comment about a developmental stage is absolutely correct.

 

> Where I strenuously disagree with you is that I'm going to give him a fair opportunity to succeed before I declare him a bust.

 

In the minutes leading up to his selection, I was fully confident the Bills would use the pick on Barkley. The one thing they have to do now is not mess this up, I'd thought to myself. When the Manuel selection was announced, I felt the same sense of sports-related heartbreak that I'd felt after No Goal, Wide Right, and the Music City Miracle. I was despondent.*

 

The reason for my reaction was because, after having read a number of pre-draft assessments, I'd concluded that Manuel fit the standard-issue profile for a first round QB bust. I can't believe the front office was dumb enough to make such a boneheaded mistake, I thought to myself.

 

Some posters, whose intellect and football acumen I have a great deal of respect for, tried to cheer me up. They told me Manuel was a significantly better QB prospect than I was giving him credit for. Their encouragement helped a little. But even though those people tend to be right a lot more often than they're wrong, in this particular case I'm convinced they're wrong.

 

> Aaron Rodgers is arguably the best qb in the game. There is no doubt that qbs such as Peyton, Brady and

> Brees elevate their respective deficient teams. All these qbs are HOF players. If that is the standard you are holding out for . . .

 

I never wrote that that was the standard I was holding out for. I was addressing your claim that the Bills will not make the playoffs in 2014 no matter how well Manuel plays. If the Bills' front office lobotomized the Packers' front office, and convinced them to trade Aaron Rodgers for E.J. Manuel straight up, the Bills would become a legitimate Super Bowl contender in 2014. (Especially if their 2014 draft was good.)

 

Currently, the Bills have three wins and seven losses. But IIRC, most of those losses were by seven points or less. All this without a quarterback. If the Bills had a quarterback, a lot of those close losses might have been wins.

 

* The fact that Barkley was chosen at the top of the fourth round indicates that San Jose Bills Fan was almost certainly correct about Barkley lacking the minimal level of arm strength to succeed as a starter.

[K-9]

This whole discussion is about cherry picking. If someone wants to declare EJ a bust, all they have to do is point to the Jets and Steelers games and call it case-closed. If someone wants to declare that EJ can make the plays needed to be an NFL QB, all they have to do is point to a handful of plays like the Chandler throw that set up the Woods TD vs. NE, the Stevie TD vs. NE, and the final drive against Carolina and their point is readily made.

 

If you ask me (and nobody did), both sides would be over-stating their argument. It's been 6 games (5-1/2 really), concluding anything from that sample size is simply poor evaluation skill.

 

We need to sharpen our "quarterback evaluation techniques."

 

The ONLY reason I would point out EJ's good throws, and God knows there haven't been enough so far, is to simply put to rest the absurd notion that he hasn't MADE any good throws as some have been apt to point out.

 

It's a process. Usually a lengthy process. I used to give our fan base much more of the benefit of the doubt when it came to understanding that. But it's either HOF performance on every play or bust. It's absurd.

 

GO BILLS!!!

Edited November 14, 2013 by K-9

[Wayne Cubed]

This whole discussion is about cherry picking. If someone wants to declare EJ a bust, all they have to do is point to the Jets and Steelers games and call it case-closed. If someone wants to declare that EJ can make the plays needed to be an NFL QB, all they have to do is point to a handful of plays like the Chandler throw that set up the Woods TD vs. NE, the Stevie TD vs. NE, and the final drive against Carolina and their point is readily made.

 

If you ask me (and nobody did), both sides would be over-stating their argument. It's been 6 games (5-1/2 really), concluding anything from that sample size is simply poor evaluation skill.

 

To the bolded, recently 2 NFL teams made the choice of paying a lot of money for a QB they saw play well in 2 games, how did that turn out? Hell, the Bills made a similar mistake not too long ago. It goes both ways really.

 

I don't get the desire to rush to a judgement on a player, expecially rookies, these days. Is it all the access we as fans have now? Or the abilitly to say "yea, I told you so!".

[CodeMonkey]

I just want to see a marked improvement in EJ's play and most of all to see the big fat W

Wins/Losses are meaningless the rest of this season. I know many disagree and need instant gratification, but I just need to see marked improvement from Manuel week to week for the remainder of this season without exception. And lets face it, improving on last weeks performance should be real damn easy. If this does not happen, I am going to begin to think that the people that called the Manual draft a reach last summer may have had good reason to do so.

[mannc]

 

Let me be blunt to the extent that it will irritate a lot of the apologists who follow this team. EJ Manuel is not playing on a good team. This current team as it was constituted was not going to be a playoff caliber team nor even capable of having a winning record. EJ is a rookie qb on a mediocre team. That is also a factor that has hindered him. Let me also add that the Bills will not be a playoff team nexr year no matter how much EJ improves. This team has too many holes to fill for this languid organization to fill next year. When you are $20 M under the cap this year and are rolling in salary into next year what does that say about the organization's determination to get good as soon as possible? My point is that the qb position is a critical issue but there are so many more issues that need to be dealt with before the team becomes a serious team.

John, I have to disagree. Are the Bills a great team? Of course not, but I believe they have more than enough talent on this roster to have made the playoffs this year if they had had good, not great, quarterbacking. How many teams in the league would have won this year with Jeff Teul, EJ, and Thad at QB? Look what has happened to GB since they lost Rogers. Look what has happened to Houston since Matt Schaub turned into a bad QB. What do you think the Pats' record would be with Teul, EJ or Thad behind center?

[thebandit27]

To the bolded, recently 2 NFL teams made the choice of paying a lot of money for a QB they saw play well in 2 games, how did that turn out? Hell, the Bills made a similar mistake not too long ago. It goes both ways really.

 

I don't get the desire to rush to a judgement on a player, expecially rookies, these days. Is it all the access we as fans have now? Or the abilitly to say "yea, I told you so!".

 

Sadly, I think it's the bold.

 

Wins/Losses are meaningless the rest of this season. I know many disagree and need instant gratification, but I just need to see marked improvement from Manuel week to week for the remainder of this season without exception. And lets face it, improving on last weeks performance should be real damn easy. If this does not happen, I am going to begin to think that the people that called the Manual draft a reach last summer may have had good reason to do so.

 

I agree with basically everything you've said in this thread (which may not make you feel any better )

[tennesseeboy]

There is no way around it. This was a suck game and EJ sucked more than anyone else with Marrone and Gilmore in a tie for second place. That being said there have been good games this year and one suck game does not a season make. I say let them play the Jets and based on that we can begin to see what we have in the bouncebackability realm which is very important. The Jets game is a critical game in the rebuilding of this team.

[MDH]

This whole discussion is about cherry picking. If someone wants to declare EJ a bust, all they have to do is point to the Jets and Steelers games and call it case-closed. If someone wants to declare that EJ can make the plays needed to be an NFL QB, all they have to do is point to a handful of plays like the Chandler throw that set up the Woods TD vs. NE, the Stevie TD vs. NE, and the final drive against Carolina and their point is readily made.

 

If you ask me (and nobody did), both sides would be over-stating their argument. It's been 6 games (5-1/2 really), concluding anything from that sample size is simply poor evaluation skill.

 

Hey, I agree with you. There's no way of knowing about him at this point and any in depth conversation is really just a projection of what people thought about the draft pick to begin with. People who liked it go out of their way to defend it and people who didn't go out of their way to question his ability. I'm in the cross my fingers and wait and see camp.

[hondo in seattle]

So far, EJ has not proven himself a bust but neither has he proven himself to be a franchise QB. Given the importance of the position, I would draft a QB early next year. Between the two, hopefully one shows himself capable of the job.

[K-9]

So far, EJ has not proven himself a bust but neither has he proven himself to be a franchise QB. Given the importance of the position, I would draft a QB early next year. Between the two, hopefully one shows himself capable of the job.

 

I can't think of one QB that proved himself a franchise QB after six games. Not one. Going back some 45 years. The closest I can think of, after 6 games, was Marino, who just seemed to explode out of the gates his rookie year and then set the world on fire the next few seasons.

 

I'm not necessarily against the idea of drafting another QB next year if indeed we have him rated as the BPA, but I am under no illusions that he will look anything more like a franchise QB than EJ does after his first six games, too.

 

GO BILLS!!!

[hondo in seattle]

I can't think of one QB that proved himself a franchise QB after six games. Not one. Going back some 45 years. The closest I can think of, after 6 games, was Marino, who just seemed to explode out of the gates his rookie year and then set the world on fire the next few seasons.

 

I'm not necessarily against the idea of drafting another QB next year if indeed we have him rated as the BPA, but I am under no illusions that he will look anything more like a franchise QB than EJ does after his first six games, too.

 

GO BILLS!!!

 

K-9, I actually agree. I'm just tired of waiting for the next Jim Kelly. I'd like us to double the probability of finding a franchise QB by taking another QB in the next draft. I'd like to have more than one egg in the basket.

[Rob's House]

Can we stop pretending the ultimate decision as to whether EJ can be the guy will be based on 6 games? By my count he's got 6 games to go. And while 12 games is not an ideal sample, it's far from meaningless. In the meantime we're all waiting hopefully - some are just more optimistic than others.

[reddogblitz]

Currently, the Bills have three wins and seven losses. But IIRC, most of those losses were by seven points or less. All this without a quarterback. If the Bills had a quarterback, a lot of those close losses might have been wins.

 

4 of the Bills 7 losses have been by 10+ points.

 

Wins/Losses are meaningless the rest of this season. I know many disagree and need instant gratification

 

Count me as one of the many. And not because of instant gratification, although instant gratification is nice!

 

Sure we want to develop EJ and that's vitally important. Also important is for our guys to learn how to WIN. Losing breeds losing. If we lose out in hopes of developing EJ, we'll just reinforce on the rest of the team that we're really not trying to win and are in a fact a loser franchise. We should be trying to develop a whole winning team, not just one guy.