JStranger76 Posted April 23, 2013 Share Posted April 23, 2013 just a little something to keep in mind when watching the draft folks........Guys are gonna be taken WAY higher than the "experts" predict. Get ready. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
San Jose Bills Fan Posted April 23, 2013 Share Posted April 23, 2013 Jay Clocker went at #8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JStranger76 Posted April 23, 2013 Author Share Posted April 23, 2013 Yep, more fuel for the fire San Jose! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Peter Posted April 23, 2013 Share Posted April 23, 2013 Both of those guys went way before they should have gone. They are good examples of what can happen when you reach. Ponder would have been a nice second round pick. At 12, too high. Locker was picked, as I recall, at 8 -- the same pick we have. I bet if the Titans had to do it all over again, they would not have picked him at 8. I just hope we do not have the same feeling about whom we pick (whoever it is) a year from now, two years from now etc.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alphadawg7 Posted April 23, 2013 Share Posted April 23, 2013 (edited) Both of those guys went way before they should have gone. They are good examples of what can happen when you reach. Ponder would have been a nice second round pick. At 12, too high. Locker was picked, as I recall, at 8 -- the same pick we have. I bet if the Titans had to do it all over again, they would not have picked him at 8. I just hope we do not have the same feeling about whom we pick (whoever it is) a year from now, two years from now etc.. Why was 12 too high? I dont get these points of view. Ponder has become their starter...they got a starting QB at #12 and he has done a solid job and could continue to improve this year. Once the pads are on and you hit the field, where you were drafted becomes irrelevant. If they would have waited until the 2nd, they would not have gotten Ponder. So then where would they be? Maybe they would have drafted someone else who would have been a total bust...or went with a guy on their roster that would have not allowed them to even be competitive. Who knows... As of right now, I don't think Minny regrets taking Ponder at 12 as he has shown some potential and they are looking to build around him not replace him. This isnt like before where they are stuck with him because of some absurd rookie contract like Russell or Sanchez got. The fact they want to add more players rather than look for a new QB says they are happy with his development...so I ask, how was taking him at 12 too high? The only people who care about where a guy "should" go are mock draft police who have less than 10% of the insight on the guy as a team studying him daily. What about Locker? Many thought he should go late first or early second, yet he went like 8 overall to Tenn. I would bet big money Tenn could care less that many feel that was too early as they love the kid and he has a lot of potential too. Why do you think Tenn would do it different? They are very high on him and they are another team not even sniffing around getting another QB. Even when they signed Fitz, they told him flat out he will not be competing to start and he is only there to be a backup and to help assist developing Locker. I mean where did you get this idea from that Tenn doesnt like Locker? If the Bills see a guy they WANT who they know won't be there in the 2nd, then they HAVE to take him at 8. Who cares what the Kipers or arm chair GM's think about where he "should" go. These same experts say certain guys are "locks" to be this or that every year and are wrong more than 80% of the time. They get paid to be wrong the majority of the time...unlike GM's, they don't pay for it with their jobs when they do...they just get more viewers. Edited April 23, 2013 by Alphadawg7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheBrownBear Posted April 23, 2013 Share Posted April 23, 2013 Akili Smith went #3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prissythecat Posted April 23, 2013 Share Posted April 23, 2013 Why was 12 too high? I dont get these points of view. Ponder has become their starter...they got a starting QB at #12 and he has done a solid job and could continue to improve this year. Once the pads are on and you hit the field, where you were drafted becomes irrelevant. If they would have waited until the 2nd, they would not have gotten Ponder. So then where would they be? Maybe they would have drafted someone else who would have been a total bust...or went with a guy on their roster that would have not allowed them to even be competitive. Who knows... As of right now, I don't think Minny regrets taking Ponder at 12 as he has shown some potential and they are looking to build around him not replace him. This isnt like before where they are stuck with him because of some absurd rookie contract like Russell or Sanchez got. The fact they want to add more players rather than look for a new QB says they are happy with his development...so I ask, how was taking him at 12 too high? The only people who care about where a guy "should" go are mock draft police who have less than 10% of the insight on the guy as a team studying him daily. Did Minnesota win last year because of Ponder's awesome play? Or was it because AP had a season for the ages in which essentially carried the team on his back? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alphadawg7 Posted April 23, 2013 Share Posted April 23, 2013 For the record...there is NO order in which the draft "should" fall. All these fake experts release mocks based on their non professional opinion. None of it has any relevance at all on how teams view or value certain players whos boards were put together by professional football talent evaluators over a LONG period of time with a wealth of more information. Yet, the mock police always think they know better...cracks me up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
San Jose Bills Fan Posted April 23, 2013 Share Posted April 23, 2013 I dunno Alpha. I bet Minny is secretly disappointed with Ponder so far. And also the Titans with Clocker. These are legitimate cautionary tales. There are legit morals to these stories, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alphadawg7 Posted April 23, 2013 Share Posted April 23, 2013 (edited) Did Minnesota win last year because of Ponder's awesome play? Or was it because AP had a season for the ages in which essentially carried the team on his back? Please show me where I said Ponder carried the team... Just because Ponder didnt go out and throw as much as Rodgers or put up his stats does NOT mean Minny isnt happy with their QB. This is the exact kind of irrational response that I am talking about. Do you see Minny looking to build around Ponder and give him more weapons? I do. Do you see Minny bringing QB's in for pre draft workouts? I dont, and they have 2 first round picks. Do you see Minny doing anything at all that suggests even the slightest they are dissapointed in Ponder? Again, no. So once again, please explain to me how Minny made a mistake taking Ponder at 12 if Minny has a full time starter with upside that they are happy with that was good enough to help them win games last year. And I dont care if they had Tom Brady on that team, they were still gonna feed the rock to AP who dominated the league last year. You dont have to have a Drew Brees, Manning, Rodgers, Brady to win in this league. A good starter with a talented run game and good D is more than enough to win and win the SB. Edited April 23, 2013 by Alphadawg7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Captain Hindsight Posted April 23, 2013 Share Posted April 23, 2013 just a little something to keep in mind when watching the draft folks........Guys are gonna be taken WAY higher than the "experts" predict. Get ready. In hindsight, with the lockout year and uncertainty as to who teams were going to trot out at QB after the lockout, teams had to get a guy, somebody, anybody to start just in case. FA hadn't happened yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alphadawg7 Posted April 23, 2013 Share Posted April 23, 2013 I dunno Alpha. I bet Minny is secretly disappointed with Ponder so far. And also the Titans with Clocker. These are legitimate cautionary tales. There are legit morals to these stories, IMO. I respectively disagree as their is literally zero evidence of any of that and a ton of evidence of their confidence in their young QB's, especially Locker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Astrobot Posted April 23, 2013 Share Posted April 23, 2013 Jay Clocker went at #8. So, Gene Nosesmith at #8? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
San Jose Bills Fan Posted April 23, 2013 Share Posted April 23, 2013 I respectively disagree as their is literally zero evidence of any of that and a ton of evidence of their confidence in their young QB's, especially Locker. Well in rebuttal, I would say that his play speaks for itself. As a rookie you could excuse him being the 31st rated passer. This past season he was ranked 21st. Fitz was 17th. Stats aside, Ponder has not looked good when I've seen him. But yes, Minny has not given any indication that I'm aware of that they're unhappy with him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alphadawg7 Posted April 23, 2013 Share Posted April 23, 2013 (edited) Well in rebuttal...going from 31st to 21st is quite the improvement in his first real season as a starter, especially when the kid had hardly nothing to throw too and an inconsistent run game in CJ-2yds. Point is, these guys have shown improvement and potential and are still developing. Both teams seem quite happy with them and are not looking to make a change but to add more passing weapons. So, I just don't see them taking them (at least at this point) is considered a mistake just because they went higher than arm chair GM's with no real insight on them felt they should go. Edited April 23, 2013 by Alphadawg7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max997 Posted April 23, 2013 Share Posted April 23, 2013 (edited) Both of those guys went way before they should have gone. They are good examples of what can happen when you reach. Ponder would have been a nice second round pick. At 12, too high. Locker was picked, as I recall, at 8 -- the same pick we have. I bet if the Titans had to do it all over again, they would not have picked him at 8. I just hope we do not have the same feeling about whom we pick (whoever it is) a year from now, two years from now etc.. Completely agree You don't pick a QB at 8 just bc u need one Edited April 23, 2013 by Max997 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atlbillsfan1975 Posted April 23, 2013 Share Posted April 23, 2013 Well in rebuttal...going from 31st to 21st is quite the improvement in his first real season as a starter, especially when the kid had hardly nothing to throw too and an inconsistent run game in CJ-2yds. Point is, these guys have shown improvement and potential and are still developing. Both teams seem quite happy with them and are not looking to make a change but to add more passing weapons. So, I just don't see them taking them (at least at this point) is considered a mistake just because they went higher than arm chair GM's with no real insight on them felt they should go. I think you and SJF are both correct. Ponder has shown improvement. By no stretch of the imagination do i think Minny would say 'yep Ponder is going to be the next Brett Farve' . I do think Minny is now saying we need to give him some weapons and see if he can be our guy for the next 10 years. He will get this year and next to prove that. Russell Wilson going out and having the type of year he had did not help Ponder by any means. But then again you could say Wilson had a better team around him and the perfect coach for a rookie qb to excel with. In the end there are so many variable that go into any play excelling. And honestly if someone says well the took him to early and started him to quick so he could not handle the pressure and thus failed, do you honestly think someone with that mental makeup would have been a great qb? QB play is all about pressure. Give me a guy who loves getting picked in the first and wants the job and also will understand he will have some great games and some bad games to start his career. This guy will learn from his mistakes and make himself better. Going from 31 to 21 shows Ponder is improving. Now if he jumps up in the top 13 this year, then Minny knows that are on to something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Big Cat Posted April 23, 2013 Share Posted April 23, 2013 THIS GUY: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kelly the Dog Posted April 23, 2013 Share Posted April 23, 2013 FSU fans, tell me how Manuel compares to Ponder, not as a results-oriented player in college but as a pro prospect. FWIW, I like Manuel as a prospect and wouldn't mind the Bills drafting him. I never wanted Ponder and think he is very average at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rockinon Posted April 23, 2013 Share Posted April 23, 2013 Who needs perspective anyway. The problem with perspective is that there is always another one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dave mcbride Posted April 23, 2013 Share Posted April 23, 2013 (edited) Drew Brees was markedly worse than Ponder in the first two seasons that he started: http://www.pro-footb.../B/BreeDr00.htm http://www.pro-footb.../P/PondCh00.htm Plus Brees had as good a running back as Adrian Peterson. Edited April 23, 2013 by dave mcbride Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SactoBillFan Posted April 23, 2013 Share Posted April 23, 2013 Well in rebuttal, I would say that his play speaks for itself. As a rookie you could excuse him being the 31st rated passer. This past season he was ranked 21st. Fitz was 17th. Stats aside, Ponder has not looked good when I've seen him. But yes, Minny has not given any indication that I'm aware of that they're unhappy with him. He looked alright against the 49ers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kelly the Dog Posted April 23, 2013 Share Posted April 23, 2013 Drew Brees was markedly worse than Ponder in the first two seasons that he started: http://www.pro-footb.../B/BreeDr00.htm http://www.pro-footb.../P/PondCh00.htm Plus Brees had as good a running back as Adrian Peterson. I have long held that Brees just wasn't very good his first couple years in San Diego. Brees very much impressed me in college though and Ponder never did. So as far as I'm concerned (which of course means nothing), two years into their career, Ponder was never good so there was little hope, and Brees was so there was at least some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
San Jose Bills Fan Posted April 23, 2013 Share Posted April 23, 2013 FSU fans, tell me how Manuel compares to Ponder, not as a results-oriented player in college but as a pro prospect. FWIW, I like Manuel as a prospect and wouldn't mind the Bills drafting him. I never wanted Ponder and think he is very average at best. Ramius would know for sure. He looked alright against the 49ers. I didn't see that game. I haven't written off Ponder's career and in fact I kinda liked him as a draft prospect. I am however saying that in my eyes, he's been a bit disappointing so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dave mcbride Posted April 23, 2013 Share Posted April 23, 2013 (edited) I have long held that Brees just wasn't very good his first couple years in San Diego. Brees very much impressed me in college though and Ponder never did. So as far as I'm concerned (which of course means nothing), two years into their career, Ponder was never good so there was little hope, and Brees was so there was at least some. I don't profess to know whether Ponder was any good in college. I know the Bills wanted to take him in the late first. I don't have proof, but I have a hunch that Modrak's firing was accelerated by his telling Andre Reed about our intent to get Ponder. Reed, as you'll recall, then foolishly broadcast our intention. I have to think the Bills were really pissed. The Vikes clearly drafted him earlier than anticipated because they realized he wouldn't be around later. Nix's love of southern players should not be discounted in all of this. There is one constant throughout his GM career here: an overwhelming emphasis on drafting guys from the south, especially in the first four rounds. Consequently, I won't be surprised to see Manuel in a Bills uniform. He's attending the draft, so I suspect someone will take him. Edited April 23, 2013 by dave mcbride Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
San Jose Bills Fan Posted April 23, 2013 Share Posted April 23, 2013 Nix's love of southern players should not be discounted in all of this. There is one constant throughout his GM career here: an overwhelming emphasis on drafting guys from the south, especially in the first four rounds. Consequently, I won't be surprised to see Manuel in a Bills uniform. He's attending the draft, so I suspect someone will take him. That is my one sliver of hope… that and Bruce Smith being EJ's Godfather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
habes1280 Posted April 23, 2013 Share Posted April 23, 2013 (edited) Why was 12 too high? I dont get these points of view. Ponder has become their starter...they got a starting QB at #12 and he has done a solid job and could continue to improve this year. Once the pads are on and you hit the field, where you were drafted becomes irrelevant. If they would have waited until the 2nd, they would not have gotten Ponder. So then where would they be? Maybe they would have drafted someone else who would have been a total bust...or went with a guy on their roster that would have not allowed them to even be competitive. Who knows... As of right now, I don't think Minny regrets taking Ponder at 12 as he has shown some potential and they are looking to build around him not replace him. This isnt like before where they are stuck with him because of some absurd rookie contract like Russell or Sanchez got. The fact they want to add more players rather than look for a new QB says they are happy with his development...so I ask, how was taking him at 12 too high? The only people who care about where a guy "should" go are mock draft police who have less than 10% of the insight on the guy as a team studying him daily. I can't speak for the front office, but as someone who lives in Minnesota and listens, begrudgingly, to both fans and local pundits on a daily basis, I can say that there is a LOT of regret among commentators and members of the fan base over the Ponder selection, most of whom still see QB as a need position. The Vikes offense certainly performed well enough last season, but that performance was largely on the shoulders of their league MVP running back. Ponder showed flashes of potential down the stretch, but that wasn't because there were entire GAMES where he took the team on his shoulders, it was because he made individual THROWS within those games that exceeded expectations. The fact that he's their starter is hardly evidence that they made the right call-- he's simply the best of what's around and they invested too much in him to turn the page just yet (see J.P. Losman). Don't be surprised if this time next year, the Vikings are sniffing around for better options. The Bills are in a different situation entirely. They have a veteran on the roster who can take snaps if need be, and if the draft goes according to expectations, there won't be a QB spree early in the first round to force the front office's hand. Edited April 23, 2013 by habes1280 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PromoTheRobot Posted April 23, 2013 Share Posted April 23, 2013 So what is the object of the game here? To draft a "starter" or draft a pro bowler? My favorite whipping boy has been Sam Bradford. #1 pick. Franchise savior. The Andrew Luck of his draft class. The Rams are no better for it. He's a middling QB. If he were drafted in the 3rd round you'd say he worked out. But he was THE #1 PICK. Is he playing up to his pick? Not even close. PTR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dragonborn10 Posted April 23, 2013 Share Posted April 23, 2013 Two wrongs don't make a right...QB at #8 is wrong this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ramius Posted April 23, 2013 Share Posted April 23, 2013 FSU fans, tell me how Manuel compares to Ponder, not as a results-oriented player in college but as a pro prospect. FWIW, I like Manuel as a prospect and wouldn't mind the Bills drafting him. I never wanted Ponder and think he is very average at best. I put some thoughts on this question in the EJ thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alphadawg7 Posted April 24, 2013 Share Posted April 24, 2013 (edited) I can't speak for the front office, but as someone who lives in Minnesota and listens, begrudgingly, to both fans and local pundits on a daily basis, I can say that there is a LOT of regret among commentators and members of the fan base over the Ponder selection, most of whom still see QB as a need position. The Vikes offense certainly performed well enough last season, but that performance was largely on the shoulders of their league MVP running back. Ponder showed flashes of potential down the stretch, but that wasn't because there were entire GAMES where he took the team on his shoulders, it was because he made individual THROWS within those games that exceeded expectations. The fact that he's their starter is hardly evidence that they made the right call-- he's simply the best of what's around and they invested too much in him to turn the page just yet (see J.P. Losman). Don't be surprised if this time next year, the Vikings are sniffing around for better options. The Bills are in a different situation entirely. They have a veteran on the roster who can take snaps if need be, and if the draft goes according to expectations, there won't be a QB spree early in the first round to force the front office's hand. Thats just it, they havent invested that much in him. If they dont believe in him they could easily move on or draft a guy to compete with him. In fact, this year with the extra picks would be the ideal year to grab one. No one expects them too, they have shown no indication of having interest in another QB via FA or draft, and are adding weapons for him. To me, that is an endorsement in their long term belief in him. I have not claimed he has reached any certain level of expectation yet, just that I don't see the Vikes showing any signs of not backing the young QB. I mean, he's only played two seasons. Not all QB's come out of college and light the league on fire, in fact the over whelming majority dont. People have been spoiled with high expectations in recent years of guys like Newton, RG3, Luck, Wilson, etc that have had high early success. But that is still not the norm. My only point was, taking a guy at 12 that arm chair mock draft police believe should go at 20 is not a mistake if you get your guy and he works out. Ponder and Locker still have lots of upside, shown improvement, helped their team win games and are still really early in their career. The idea you should not draft a guy at 12 or 10 or 8, etc just because some fools in the media and some fans made a mock draft of their meaningless opinion saying he shouldnt go until pick 20 or later is so absurd. If you want this guy and you firmly believe he wont last 32 more picks, then you take him. That simple. As of now, I dont see Minny or Tenn panicking on their guys, only showing confidence in them and adding weapons to further their development. And neither team has too much invested in them and could bring competition in if they chose too. Like when SD took Rivers even though they had a young Brees. Brees hadnt shown enough to instill confidence and they used the 4th overall pick to acquire Rivers just 2 years after taking Brees first overall in the 2nd round. This really wasnt a debate on how good or bad Ponder was, just on the silly notion that they are over drafted when their teams have shown nothing but confidence in them and its still WAY too early to determine the rest of their careers. If Minny wins a SB with Ponder at the helm, then is it still a bad pick because they took a guy at 12 instead of late first or early 2nd? Hint: If you say yes that would be absurd. PS: If any of these so called draft "experts" that do mock drafts were any good at what they do, they wouldnt be loser mock draft analysts or arm chair GM's in their mothers basement writing for bleacher report, they would be highly paid NFL GM's...and yes that includes idiots like McShay and Kiper who are paid to be wrong more than 80% of the time on their analysts of college players. Edited April 24, 2013 by Alphadawg7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orton's Arm Posted April 24, 2013 Share Posted April 24, 2013 I think you and SJF are both correct. Ponder has shown improvement. By no stretch of the imagination do i think Minny would say 'yep Ponder is going to be the next Brett Farve' . I do think Minny is now saying we need to give him some weapons and see if he can be our guy for the next 10 years. He will get this year and next to prove that. Russell Wilson going out and having the type of year he had did not help Ponder by any means. But then again you could say Wilson had a better team around him and the perfect coach for a rookie qb to excel with. In the end there are so many variable that go into any play excelling. And honestly if someone says well the took him to early and started him to quick so he could not handle the pressure and thus failed, do you honestly think someone with that mental makeup would have been a great qb? QB play is all about pressure. Give me a guy who loves getting picked in the first and wants the job and also will understand he will have some great games and some bad games to start his career. This guy will learn from his mistakes and make himself better. Going from 31 to 21 shows Ponder is improving. Now if he jumps up in the top 13 this year, then Minny knows that are on to something. Good post and I agree. For what it's worth, I heard that Ponder was fairly mediocre for most of his second season. The exception being the last four games of the season, where he picked up his play a great deal. Even assuming that's true, there's always a chance those four games are a fluke. We as Bills fans are no strangers to QBs who play well for eight games, or even the entire 1998 season, only to quickly fade into mediocrity. Then again, there's also the chance those four games represent the start of something more. Ponder and Drew Brees have a lot in common. They were both considered good pocket passers at the college level. Neither has overwhelming physical tools. Brees was picked 32nd overall, which is about where Ponder had been expected to be taken. Both had their careers get off to a slow start. None of this is any guarantee Ponder will become the next Brees. In fact, I'd argue it's very premature to pass judgment on Ponder one way or the other. Going into the 2001 draft, TD eschewed using an early pick on a QB, in large part because he thought Rob Johnson could be the answer. In the 2006 draft, Marv passed up QBs like Cutler in order to give Losman his chance to shine. The fact the Vikings aren't currently trying to replace Ponder may be indicative of a Johnson/Losman situation, or of a Drew Brees situation. Only time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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