QB class worst in decade (article)

[JohnC]

That isn't my view at all. If they think that there is a QB in this draft who will be a good-very good starter in the future, I would be thrilled to wait.

 

But, in the NFL now QBs get tossed to the curb after 3 years if they are not good already. How long do you wait on a guy to "get it" when you aren't certain that he ever will?

 

The notion that if a qb doesn't work out it is a fatal blow to your franchise is wrong. The Ravens selected Kyle Boller a number of years ago with their first round selection. He had the strongest arm in the draft. He played at least three years or so without much success and improvement. He simply was a failure. The franchsie didn't crumble. The Ravens then a few years later maneuvered back into the first round to select Flacco. He wasn't an instant star but he seemed to get better every year. Is he an elite qb? I consider him to be a very good qb and a very clutch qb. But I wouldn't rank him as an elite qb.

 

My central point is unless you get your qb prospect on board and allow your designated franchise qb the time to develop you will never know if you have your long term qb on the roster. What I know for sure is not drafting highly rated qb prospects and instead taking wild swings at picks such as Levi Brown will get you a ticket to nowhere.

 

Kaepernick was not considered an elite prospect in his draft year. He was a raw prospect with potential. How has that worked out? Russell Wilson was not considered a top tier prospect in the year he was drafted in the third round. How has that worked out? Mallett didn't get drafted until the lower third round by the Patriots. He has not gotten much playing time because he is playing behind a HOF qb. Maybe if he played with the Bills he could have turned out to be franchise qb? With a GM who has a proclivity of passivity with the most important position on a team you will never know if the Bills could have had their qb position resolved so it can go ahead and address so many other positions of need.

 

The same urgency that our southern talking GM appears to be showing this offseason should have been exhibited when he first took over. If that was the case just maybe this franchise would be on an upward trajectory instead of every year repeating the same cycle of futility. It's stupid, simply stupid!

Edited April 7, 2013 by JohnC

[Prickly Pete]

The draft is such a hot topic, and the fact that there isn't one standout guy makes it easy for writers to get people to read articles like this. They pander to what they think people want to read.

 

There are talented QB's in this draft. The new breed has been so well coached compared to guys in the past, and the passing game at every level from Pee Wee to College is more sophisticated, that the top guys are much better prepared than even 10 years ago.

 

Everyone relax, there is a good Qb in the pile, and the teams have to find him, and develop him, just like any other draft.

[turftoe]

I agree, especially when it comes to the "Russel Wilson would be a first round pick if he was four inches taller" argument in retrospect. I keep wondering if the "Tyler Wilson has small hands" argument is going to sound the same way.

 

But I also agree that it's looking like QB isn't our first pick. So be it. Kolb gives us security for at least a decent chunk of the year, and we can start developing players and teaching our system to a guy with a few flaws.

I think being a little shorter can be overcome better than small hands when it comes to being a QB. Russell Wilson has large hands and moves well to create passing lanes for himself. He also has a great work ethic and pocket awareness. Most of the QBs in this draft are 6'2" or taller which is generally considered tall enough. Accuracy and pocket awareness/poise have to be the most critical criteria when comparing these guys. If you just use the eyeball test then EJ Manuel whould be your guy but is he accurate and does he make good decisions? Barkley is quite accurate for the type of throws we will likely require in Marrone's offense. I would be ok with him but I think he could be had in the 2nd half of rd. 1. Bray kind of scares me due to what is between his ears. Someone on this board mentioned that he has athe maturity level and personality of a young JP Losman and I tend to agree. Wilson, to his credit, does seem to have good pocket awareness. I watched a Youtube clip of him after getting thumped by Alabama and it turned me off as to his maturity and leadership. He kept repeating that this sucked and that sucked..yada yada yada. Not really the face of the franchise type. The big lanky tall drink of water from NC state is not a young Flacco when it comes to making decisions. I think in today's NFL you want a little mobility and he is not going to be able to move when the pocket breaks down. I'm not totally sure why I don't really like Geno Smith. I guess if I had the choice, I would take Manuel over him if I wanted an athletic guy to run a read option type offense. Landry Jones....not my cup of tea.

Matt Scott I like a lot but he will take some developing. I, like many on this board, hope we trade down and get some picks then take a QB later in round 1 or early in rd 2 depending on how things fall. If no QBs go early, teams picking at the top of rd 2 will certainly be shopping at that point. I think if Milliner or Lane Johnson are there at #8, there will be interest from teams in the 11-18 range that may want to trade up. If Jordan falls to #8, I say pick him. Wouldn't that just get the Jets panties in a wad. Mingo looks the part but one analyst pointed out how he is often near the play but not the one actually making it. He will lead the league in butt slaps and high fives after the play is over. Back to the QB choice. I hope Nix goes with a consensus of his scouts, Whaley, and the guys that will be coaching him, namely Marrone and Hackett. Too big of a decision to fly solo on this one.

[KeisterHollow]

I agree that Nix is not the only one making the decision this year. I suspect Whaley will have serious input, and I know Marrone and Pettine will, as will Russ Brandon. Now, I discount Brandon, but I hold Whaley, Marrone, Pettine, and Nix's opinions in high regard. If they all agree X QB is good enough to take at whatever position, then I'm fine with it. They've done their research.

 

If they pass on QB for a few rounds, then I'll have to believe it isn't just Nix who is passing, but Marrone is also saying - wait on QB.

 

And, as far as Nix taking the heat for not drafting a QB since he's been here - I only really hold him accountable for missing on Wilson and Kaepernick - two guys I was extremely high on - but, Nix passing might have been influenced by Wilson (after having paid Fitz) and Gailey. So, I will wait until after this year's draft to hold Nix accountable for the Bills to this point. I think with a good draft Nix might have the Bills in position to be very competitive - like challanging for the division - for years to come, and in good salary cap position, too. This will be Nix's prove it year. I'm convinced he and Marrone, Whaley and Pettine will turn this team around, and have us winning and enjoying watching them as soon as this year.

[JESSEFEFFER]

I think Tannehill looked OK last year,but based on what you have seen from Gabbert, Locker, Ponder (2 years each) and Weeden - do you want any of them?

 

My point was that the list of names I provided were deemed worthy of a 1st round pick. I through Weeden in because of his age and the others because they were in the top half of the 1st. Some team decided to "roll the dice" on them. I am asking what made these guys better prospects than what we see in this year's group. Maybe no one at the very top (Newton, Luck, etc.) but still a group of guys that warrant a shot.

[Santana]

^{This class cant be any worse than the class that brought us Quin, Jamarcus Russell, Trent Edwards, and Kevin Kolb.}

 

Haha that was a horrible QB class, you're right I really don't know if it can get any worse

[thewildrabbit]

I say if Geno's on the board @ 8, take him.

I'm hoping the reason they signed Kolb was so they wouldn't be hard pressed to draft a QB at #8 this year. Particularity in Geno Smith, a QB who had distinct trouble when his team was down in points against some rather average defenses.

Smith might be graded as the best in a very average class of QB's that Kolb is already better then.

 

If Marrone has any say at all he is going to want to build that offense the right way, and that entails starting at the O line. Weakness at RT, C, OG. That said, the Bills could immediately solve several problems at once by drafting one of the top 3 OT's in the draft this year. Then move Glenn to RT and thus allowing them to move players to OG.

[Garranimal]

We all know about the 2012 draft class qbs - here are some other recent draft classes:

 

2011: Cam Newton, Jake Locker, Blaine Gabbert, Christina Ponder, Andy Dalton, Colin Kaepernick

 

Newton has been decent but had a bit of a sophomore slump. I'd say the jury is still out on Ponder, while Dalton and Kaepernick have been solid.

 

2010: Sam Bradford, Tim Tebow, Jimmy Clausen, Colt McCoy

 

ugh

 

2009: Matt Stafford, Mark Sanchez, Josh Freeman, Pat White, Stephen McGee, Rhett Bohmar, Nate Davis

 

Stafford yes, Sanchez is a wreck, Freeman is middle of the pack

 

2008: Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco, Brian Brohm, Chad Henne, Kevin O'Connell, John David Booty, Dennis Dixon, a bunch of other no-names, and Matt Flynn

Ryan, Flacco yes, Henne backs up Blaine Gabbert in Jacksonville, O'Connell gained a ton of weight, got old real quick, and does weather for Channel 4, and Flynn is

bouncing around the league with a lot of hope.

 

What makes a good draft class? One good qb? Two? 2012 seems to be a milestone year for qb's, but 2013 seems to be about average. It only looks terrible because we look at the success of last years rookie qb's. That's an aberration though.

This post, to me, strongly supports the notion of not drafting a QB early. In fact, with all the talk of Wilson, it seems logical to draft a QB every year in the mid rounds and give that player an honest shot at blossoming.

 

My perspective between this year's class and some of the classes in the past is that this group of QBs achieved precious little in college. In fact it is a mix of guys that either underachieved in big programs or are given passing grades for being in bad programs. Guys like Luck and RGIII performed to expectations in known programs. Wilson performed in two decent sized programs with good results at each stop.

 

I would love a little feedback on who believes any of the guys in this class has done anything at the college level which distinguishes them as a solid prospect at the next level?

 

Smith's documented physical limitations and fumbling problems are a real concern and are very likely to translate to the next level. EJ Manual has had the reigns for several years with essentially the same coaching staff and his "coachable" problems have not improved. But....if some of these guys last into the second or third round....by all means, take a flyer.

[dave mcbride]

 

Christian Ponder: 62% 18 TDs, 12 INTs - this is pretty decent, but he had the GREATEST rushing performance in NFL history to open up the passing game

 

 

I didn't realize that Peterson rushed for 2003 yards in only 14 games!

[Dibs]

This post, to me, strongly supports the notion of not drafting a QB early. In fact, with all the talk of Wilson, it seems logical to draft a QB every year in the mid rounds and give that player an honest shot at blossoming.

 

Serious or facetious?

 

History has clearly shown that the NFL scouts as a whole have an incredibly good success rate at being able to determine which QBs have at least a glimmer of the chance for greatness in the NFL. The chances that a QB gets overlooked......gets selected past the 36th pick in the draft.....and then develops into a great QB are miniscule.

 

Listing off Wilson as a reason to wait to select your QB in the draft is not only premature(he may regress or simply end up having a journeyman career)......but not logical as his case is a very rare occurrence(assuming he actually pans out to become a great QB).

[BADOLBILZ]

Making a qb draft selection and not having it work out is not worse than not making a selection at all out of fear of making a mistake.

 

That really is the point with regard to drafting a quarterback early.

 

As I have said many times here over the past few seasons.........The team could have drafted a QB with their first pick every year in the past 13 and be no worse off than they are today.

 

The impact a good QB can have on a franchise dwarfs that of any other position on the field.

 

Therefore, it is always a worthwhile risk if you do not have one in place.

 

I would love to see the Bills get a great pass rushing OLB, or a great OT, or a great WR with that first pick.........but in the long run, it doesn't matter without the quarterback.

 

When I read some of these people talking about how they should pass on a QB this year....cuz next year looks like a better draft for QB's.......I just gotta' shake my head at that nonsense.

 

Is not 53 years of proof enough for people here?

 

Fans deify these potential first round draft picks but the reality is that even when they pan out, they ultimately have little impact on wins and losses if they aren't a QB or there isn't already a stud QB in place.

 

See Stephon Gilmore and Marcel Dareus for the most recent examples.

[Green Lightning]

 

 

Jake Locker: 56% 10 TDs, 11 INTs

Christian Ponder: 62% 18 TDs, 12 INTs - this is pretty decent, but he had the GREATEST rushing performance in NFL history to open up the passing game

Brandon Weeden: 57%, 14 TDs, 17 INTs - Browns are so unsold that they are considering picking another QB high.

Blaine Gabbert: 58% 9 TDs, 6 INTs

Ryan Fitzpatrick: 61% 24 TDs, 16 INTs

 

My point isn't to trash any of these QBs - one or more of them might improve, but most were not even as good as Fitz was last year.

 

I would want better than that if I were to invest the 8th overall pick in the draft.

 

I'm with the Old Timer

[Trader]

I think the Bills do not take a QB in this draft and roll the dice by waiting until next year.

 

There are QB's that are worth a risk in this draft not at #8 though. Someone will go in the first round. At least two in the second round.

[Dragonborn10]

I'm starting to think even Nassib will be around in the third. Would love to go LB LB then still get a decent QB prospect in the third.

[Nostradumbass]

Every single year it's the same story: we have too many needs to draft a QB

 

Meanwhile, this team is nowhere. Kolb is Fitzpatrick 2.0: backup being sold as a franchise guy because they just will not draft a real prospect at QB.

 

Bingo

 

Enough with the playing games, trading down, waiting for next year, you can't win in the NFL without a QB, period

 

Keep throwing darts until we pop the balloon

 

Frankly I'd like to see the Bills invest a 1st and a 3rd in the position, if we miss on the picks, draft another one next year and hence forth

 

When we get our QB then we can start to leave the woods and actually build a team worth watching

[San Jose Bills Fan]

Frankly I'd like to see the Bills invest a 1st and a 3rd in the position, if we miss on the picks, draft another one next year and hence forth

 

When we get our QB then we can start to leave the woods and actually build a team worth watching

 

So you're against re-signing Eric Wood?

[KeisterHollow]

 

Serious or facetious?

 

History has clearly shown that the NFL scouts as a whole have an incredibly good success rate at being able to determine which QBs have at least a glimmer of the chance for greatness in the NFL. The chances that a QB gets overlooked......gets selected past the 36th pick in the draft.....and then develops into a great QB are miniscule.

 

Listing off Wilson as a reason to wait to select your QB in the draft is not only premature(he may regress or simply end up having a journeyman career)......but not logical as his case is a very rare occurrence(assuming he actually pans out to become a great QB).

Add to that Wilson actually had all the intangibles and also had all the actual success one would look for in a high 1st round QB - he beat RGIII and Luck in games during college; if it weren't for his height he would have been a top 10 QB. So using Wilson as an example of how mid-round QB's are bound to be successful eventually is not a good argument. He never should have lasted that long.

[ganesh]

This team has too many needs to spend a pick on a QB. We need impact players on defense and a wide receiver who can open up the passing game. Whether Kolb is the QB of the future remains to be seen. It seems like a lot of money was spent on Kolb so the assumption has to be he is the man for this season. .

 

Kolb is getting backup money with a chance to make mid-level starter money if he actually wins the job. The team has to pick a QB this year and next year and groom them for the future.

[OldTimer1960]

My point was that the list of names I provided were deemed worthy of a 1st round pick. I through Weeden in because of his age and the others because they were in the top half of the 1st. Some team decided to "roll the dice" on them. I am asking what made these guys better prospects than what we see in this year's group. Maybe no one at the very top (Newton, Luck, etc.) but still a group of guys that warrant a shot.

 

I agree that there are QB prospects that could be considered equivalent prospects to those that you listed. My argument is that those players were drafted much higher than they were expected to be (at least by most information we fans are privy to) and at this point, the jury is still out on all of them. I am not saying that none of them will turn out to be good QBs, but it isn't looking positive at this point for most on that list. If you agree with my premise (that most on that list are struggling), then it is at least questionable to use their high draft positions to justify following suit.

 

I am not completely against taking a QB in round 1, but I am not sold on any of them. Thankfully, for the team and fans I am not in position to make those decisions.

[ganesh]

I'm starting to think even Nassib will be around in the third. Would love to go LB LB then still get a decent QB prospect in the third.

The bills would have to get a WR in those two rounds,....They simply cannot draft 2 LBs in the 1st two rounds.

 

There are QB's that are worth a risk in this draft not at #8 though. Someone will go in the first round. At least two in the second round.

 

Geno and Barkley are likely top-15 picks.

EJ, Nassib and/or Wilson are likely to go in bottom 10 of the 1st round or the top of the 2nd round.

 

Bray, and the rest will be available in the 3rd round.