QB class worst in decade (article)

[DanInUticaTampa]

^{This class cant be any worse than the class that brought us Quin, Jamarcus Russell, Trent Edwards, and Kevin Kolb.}

[NoSaint]

 

 

I think Tannehill looked OK last year,but based on what you have seen from Gabbert, Locker, Ponder (2 years each) and Weeden - do you want any of them?

Even in foresight though, what made any of them better than the guys this year? Especially where we are drafting (no shot at a slam dunk that would be #1) I think there's a good bit of qb talent. I'd take several guys in this draft over that list is the point I think he was getting at (and a drum I've beaten).

 

If your looking for a safe guy that's polished but might be slightly physically limited does anyone take ponder or gabbert over Barkley? If your taking a high upside guy I take smith over tannehill and locker. So is this really a terrible spot to possibly pull the trigger?

[Floridabillsfan1]

 

 

Jake Locker: 56% 10 TDs, 11 INTs

Christian Ponder: 62% 18 TDs, 12 INTs - this is pretty decent, but he had the GREATEST rushing performance in NFL history to open up the passing game

Brandon Weeden: 57%, 14 TDs, 17 INTs - Browns are so unsold that they are considering picking another QB high.

Blaine Gabbert: 58% 9 TDs, 6 INTs

Ryan Fitzpatrick: 61% 24 TDs, 16 INTs

 

My point isn't to trash any of these QBs - one or more of them might improve, but most were not even as good as Fitz was last year.

 

I would want better than that if I were to invest the 8th overall pick in the draft.

[OldTimer1960]

Even in foresight though, what made any of them better than the guys this year? Especially where we are drafting (no shot at a slam dunk that would be #1) I think there's a good bit of qb talent. I'd take several guys in this draft over that list is the point I think he was getting at (and a drum I've beaten).

 

If your looking for a safe guy that's polished but might be slightly physically limited does anyone take ponder or gabbert over Barkley? If your taking a high upside guy I take smith over tannehill and locker. So is this really a terrible spot to possibly pull the trigger?

 

If the point is to take someone whom they think can be competitive, but not great, then I agree. But where does that get them? Maybe 9-7, but not much chance of being a championship contender?

 

To be clear, I am not totally against them taking a QB in the first or second round. I just want to believe that if they do, that they aren't just settling or taking a wild shot on someone when they could draft a higher-probability-of-success player at another position with the 8th overall selection.

 

To take your point of view for a moment: If you had a strong conviction that the Bills could draft a perfect clone of Alex Smith or Andy Dalton at the 8th spot, would you do it? I would not if I knew it was Alex Smith - Andy Dalton would give me cause to consider it, but he still might be that middle of the road guy that is never quite good enough.

[JohnC]

s

Even in foresight though, what made any of them better than the guys this year? Especially where we are drafting (no shot at a slam dunk that would be #1) I think there's a good bit of qb talent. I'd take several guys in this draft over that list is the point I think he was getting at (and a drum I've beaten).

 

If your looking for a safe guy that's polished but might be slightly physically limited does anyone take ponder or gabbert over Barkley? If your taking a high upside guy I take smith over tannehill and locker. So is this really a terrible spot to possibly pull the trigger?

 

I don't understand the wait until next year qb argument. Does anyone know for sure that the Bills will be in position to draft one of the so called elite prospects next year? We scratched out six wins last season and are now drafting in the 8 spot. I believe that there are a lot of quality prospects in this draft. Some have more upside than others. As with most young qbs it will take some time to develop. How does anyone know that Glennon or Wilson or Bray might ultimately be the best of the qb crop. What I do know for sure if Buddy Nix continues with his passive approach to finding a qb prospect in the draft the team will not only continue to lose but it will continue to be an irrelevant franchise.

 

Making a qb draft selection and not having it work out is not worse than not making a selection at all out of fear of making a mistake.

[Floridabillsfan1]

The problem with using these stats is the QBs listed have not reached their full potential as a NFL player . They are still developing in the system they are in as well . Fitzpatrick was a vet who knew the playbook and did as well as these guys ( or worse ) . He proved he is not a " clutch " player as well .

 

Now with that being said , if we use our 8th pick on Manuel or Smith they might have similar year as these listed . So what ? The Bills need to get ready at QB now for the decline of the Brady era . I'd rather see the Bills swing and miss than not swing at all . Take the QB at # 8 !!!

[RuntheDamnBall]

Smith certainly got trashed in the article.

This will be fashionable - and not just for Smith - until draft day. The objective is to drive down the cost at an expensive position.

 

Once the draft is over, it'll be all "we can't believe he lasted until our pick," "we targeted this guy all along," "this guy can start in the NFL," "he's going to prove all the doubters wrong, make them pay for passing him up," "Team X are the draft day winners for getting the best QB in the draft late in round 1," etc etc.

 

The cycle of draft rhetoric and narrative is fun.

[HeHateMe]

s

 

I don't understand the wait until next year qb argument. Does anyone know for sure that the Bills will be in position to draft one of the so called elite prospects next year? We scratched out six wins last season and are now drafting in the 8 spot. I believe that there are a lot of quality prospects in this draft. Some have more upside than others. As with most young qbs it will take some time to develop. How does anyone know that Glennon or Wilson or Bray might ultimately be the best of the qb crop. What I do know for sure if Buddy Nix continues with his passive approach to finding a qb prospect in the draft the team will not only continue to lose but it will continue to be an irrelevant franchise.

 

Making a qb draft selection and not having it work out is not worse than not making a selection at all out of fear of making a mistake.

 

Agree, say there are 2 elite prospects in the draft next season.. The Bills get their typical 5-6 wins and we are in the same draft position next season with 3 or 4 teams needing QBs picking ahead of them again... those 2 elite guys will be long gone...

 

Hell even when the Bills are really bad they pick 3rd and the elite guy (Cam Newton) is off the board...

 

We are not going to luck out like Indy and get Andrew Luck with the first overall...you need to start taking chances at the position.

 

You could trade up in this scenario but that is easier said than done and there will be competition in doing that too...

[Hapless Bills Fan]

Smith certainly got trashed in the article.

 

Actually that's one of the things that bothers me about the article. It rehashes Nawrocki's article trashing Smith. I loathe "created news" where one person crafts something controversial and then everyone else blindly cites it without caveats. If he quoted Nawrocki (the most negative review) then quoted the most positive review, it would be OK

 

I think really what his argument amounts to is saying there isn't a prospect regarded as a can't miss, sure-fire pick or an "exceptionally deep" class (as was 2012 and 2009), because actually it's not that uncommon for a single guy to go #1 overall and then the next in line goes much later. I think in 2011, Jake Locker was regarded as a bit of a surprise and a reach at #8. 2010, after Sam Bradford, next QB was Tim Tebow at 25 and again, that was regarded as "panic" by the Broncos and a reach. 2007, JaBustus #1 then Brady Quinn at #22.

 

Also unstated in that article is the fact that the 2nd QB pick (often much later in the draft, >18th) has sometimes done as well or better than the 1st QB pick. Examples of this might include 2008 (Joe Flacco vs Matt Ryan), 2005 (Aaron Rodgers vs Alex Smith), arguably 2009 (not in hype or wins and his team sucks, but Freeman by some metrics >> Sanchez)

 

As far as this being the worst-regarded QB class since 2000, I don't think he defends that argument. He refers to a year in which a QB wasn't drafted until 18th in the 1st round. But that doesn't address how QB were *regarded* prior to the draft. Some history and (real - I dunno the answer) questions:

1) Historical context of QB. TBD'ians often cite rule changes favoring the QB and passing game. When are those game changes considered to impact draft strategy? Maybe a decade ago, teams were drafting under different assumptions and there wasn't the premium on QB that there seems to be today.

2) in 2001, Michael Vick was the only QB drafted in the 1st. Was he regarded as a "sure fire" QB prospect at the time, or more in the light of a unique athletic talent on whom the Falcons took a high risk/high reward flyer?

3) Were David Carr and Joey Harrington (2002 draft, 1st and 3rd pick) really regarded as top-flight can't miss prospects before the draft? (If so it bolsters the case that draft pundits are sometimes, well, Wrong.)

4) more recently, 2010. I remember divided opinion - some people positing Clausen Pickle was the best QB in the draft. Was Bradford really regarded as a top-flight, can't miss prospect, injury history and all?

 

The intense interest in retread FA QB this year may reflect a desire to ensure a capable 2013 starter and have options other than rushing an ill-prepared rookie into the game, as well as the lack of a single clear top-5 pick, more than a total indictment of this year's QB class relative to other classes of the last decade. My view anyway.

[KeisterHollow]

Unfortunately, if the top 3 QB's in next year's class are as good as advertised, and of course, Clowney is going 1 or 2 - and, we're not absolutely sure all the top QB's in next year's class are going to come out, as they're young - it would take Buffalo finishing with like a 4-12 record, or 5-11, to guarantee a shot at one of the "sure thing, can't miss" prospects. After that, I don't think next year's class will have the depth that this year's does.

 

Frankly, if Nix had it in him to allow for a terrible season to ensure a decent shot at a top prospect, last year would have been the year to do it. He could have benched Fitz at any time and the fans and media would have understood and stood behind it. He could have trotted T-Jax out and let him lose out the year. Nix doesn't have it in his constitution to just tank a season. Marrone doesn't either.

 

I expect we take a QB in the first 3 rounds this year. I also expect we are in contention for a playoff spot in December. There's a lot of talent on this team, it's a deep draft in the spots we're lacking in, and we're going to come out of the gates this fall, IMO, surprising everyone. We'll have the advantage for the first 3 or 4 weeks, as no one will really know what to expect out of us. We'll also have the emotional charge of a new staff. And, I just think that besides the holes on this roster, we actually have a lot of talent - and we'll add another 3-5 starters by the end of the draft and UDFA/FA who will be promising, as well.

 

So, as much as Buffalo might wish they could just wait and grab a QB next year, there's no possible way to ensure they'll get one if they pass on a prospect this year. And, IMO, this year's class has at least 3 or 4 guys who'll end up being decent starters in the NFL, and I would also add that I think there's probably 7 or 8 QB's in this class who'd give Buffalo a better shot at winning that Fitz did - which is to say, if we do land one of the top QB's and he's starting, we might see better offensive production, enough to make us all quite happy we didn't wait.

[RuntheDamnBall]

So, as much as Buffalo might wish they could just wait and grab a QB next year, there's no possible way to ensure they'll get one if they pass on a prospect this year. And, IMO, this year's class has at least 3 or 4 guys who'll end up being decent starters in the NFL, and I would also add that I think there's probably 7 or 8 QB's in this class who'd give Buffalo a better shot at winning that Fitz did - which is to say, if we do land one of the top QB's and he's starting, we might see better offensive production, enough to make us all quite happy we didn't wait.

This, this, this. Thank you.

[NoSaint]

 

This will be fashionable - and not just for Smith - until draft day. The objective is to drive down the cost at an expensive position.

 

Once the draft is over, it'll be all "we can't believe he lasted until our pick," "we targeted this guy all along," "this guy can start in the NFL," "he's going to prove all the doubters wrong, make them pay for passing him up," "Team X are the draft day winners for getting the best QB in the draft late in round 1," etc etc.

 

The cycle of draft rhetoric and narrative is fun.

 

We saw him as a tackle not a guard all along

[RuntheDamnBall]

We saw him as a tackle not a guard all along

You got it.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

I think Tannehill looked OK last year,but based on what you have seen from Gabbert, Locker, Ponder (2 years each) and Weeden - do you want any of them?

 

How many Tannehill games did you watch? The Bills have a knack for making the guy behind center with a fish on his hat look genius.

I didn't see anything (last year) out of Tannehill that made me love him more than the rest - overall, the Phins are well ahead of the Browns on offense esp. OL, but Weedon looked about the same as Tannehill from what I saw overall. Flashes at times, overall "meh". They both threw more picks than TDs and none too many of those.

 

Overall, I would say Ponder did the best of the bunch in his 2nd year. He's the only one of them who managed >60% completions and significantly more TDs than INTs, as well as throwing for close to 3000 yds and managing to stick out a 16 game season. But all of the guys in their 2nd season showed improvement, including (prejudiced as I am against him) Gabbert.

 

Bottom line, any of those guys may yet develop into a good solid starting NFL QB. We don't know their ceilings yet. They just didn't drop jaws and make people say "wow" out of the gate.

 

Let me restate our problem overall. We, as Bills fans, don't want our team to draft a guy with potential who may take several years to play well. We want our team to draft RGIII, Newton, Luck, or Wilson - a guy who plays GREAT right out of the box and out of the gate. And there isn't a QB who screams "he's that guy" in the draft this year. But even if there was, he would go #1 or #2 overall and we're not in position to take him.

 

There may be a sleeper - a Wilson, a Dalton, even a Rodgers. These guys are only seen in hindsight, and there's just as likely to be one in this draft as any other. We may get him.

But in case we don't, all is not lost provided we 1) have someone capable at QB 2) have reasonable targets for him 3) finally put together an NFL-quality defense. A number of teams have put together winning seasons and playoffs with those 3 things. Heck, the Texans went to the playoffs with TJ Yates at the helm, not very deep admittedly but still.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Locker

[TheFunPolice]

Every single year it's the same story: we have too many needs to draft a QB

 

Meanwhile, this team is nowhere. Kolb is Fitzpatrick 2.0: backup being sold as a franchise guy because they just will not draft a real prospect at QB.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

I don't understand the wait until next year qb argument. (...)

Making a qb draft selection and not having it work out is not worse than not making a selection at all out of fear of making a mistake.

 

JohnC, IMO you are spot-on.

 

The fact is that historically, #1 overall draft picks work out as desired about 50% of the time. Top-10 draft picks work out as desired about 34% of the time. Even then, you don't necessarily wind up with Peyton Manning, the guy who can carry the team on his back, just with a solid overall starter who can take you to the SB with the right pieces around him (Flacco, Ryan).

 

So to find "The Man", a team has to be willing to take a shot, and keep shooting. You never hit the shot you don't take.

 

Meanwhile, this team is nowhere. Kolb is Fitzpatrick 2.0: backup being sold as a franchise guy because they just will not draft a real prospect at QB.

 

Where is this happening?

[chris heff]

 

 

Jake Locker: 56% 10 TDs, 11 INTs

Christian Ponder: 62% 18 TDs, 12 INTs - this is pretty decent, but he had the GREATEST rushing performance in NFL history to open up the passing game

Brandon Weeden: 57%, 14 TDs, 17 INTs - Browns are so unsold that they are considering picking another QB high.

Blaine Gabbert: 58% 9 TDs, 6 INTs

Ryan Fitzpatrick: 61% 24 TDs, 16 INTs

 

My point isn't to trash any of these QBs - one or more of them might improve, but most were not even as good as Fitz was last year.

 

I would want better than that if I were to invest the 8th overall pick in the draft.

 

Kevin Kolb: 59.6% 8 TDs 3INTs

Tavaris Jackson: 0% 0 TDs 0 INTs

Aaron Corp: 0% 0 TDs 0 INTs

 

Fitzpatrick is no longer with the Bills

 

I wrote nothing about the 8th pick. I was pointing out the foolishness of waiting till next year.

[johnnychemo]

We all know about the 2012 draft class qbs - here are some other recent draft classes:

 

2011: Cam Newton, Jake Locker, Blaine Gabbert, Christina Ponder, Andy Dalton, Colin Kaepernick

 

Newton has been decent but had a bit of a sophomore slump. I'd say the jury is still out on Ponder, while Dalton and Kaepernick have been solid.

 

2010: Sam Bradford, Tim Tebow, Jimmy Clausen, Colt McCoy

 

ugh

 

2009: Matt Stafford, Mark Sanchez, Josh Freeman, Pat White, Stephen McGee, Rhett Bohmar, Nate Davis

 

Stafford yes, Sanchez is a wreck, Freeman is middle of the pack

 

2008: Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco, Brian Brohm, Chad Henne, Kevin O'Connell, John David Booty, Dennis Dixon, a bunch of other no-names, and Matt Flynn

Ryan, Flacco yes, Henne backs up Blaine Gabbert in Jacksonville, O'Connell gained a ton of weight, got old real quick, and does weather for Channel 4, and Flynn is

bouncing around the league with a lot of hope.

 

What makes a good draft class? One good qb? Two? 2012 seems to be a milestone year for qb's, but 2013 seems to be about average. It only looks terrible because we look at the success of last years rookie qb's. That's an aberration though.

[OldTimer1960]

 

Let me restate our problem overall. We, as Bills fans, don't want our team to draft a guy with potential who may take several years to play well. We want our team to draft RGIII, Newton, Luck, or Wilson - a guy who plays GREAT right out of the box and out of the gate. And there isn't a QB who screams "he's that guy" in the draft this year. But even if there was, he would go #1 or #2 overall and we're not in position to take him.

 

 

That isn't my view at all. If they think that there is a QB in this draft who will be a good-very good starter in the future, I would be thrilled to wait.

 

But, in the NFL now QBs get tossed to the curb after 3 years if they are not good already. How long do you wait on a guy to "get it" when you aren't certain that he ever will?

[Just in Atlanta]

I think the Bills do not take a QB in this draft and roll the dice by waiting until next year.

There'd be riots here if that happened. Horrible, borderline insane PR decision, and likely even a horrible football decision.

 

Kolb is not going to sell any tickets. He is a known commodity. A rookie, even in this class, brings hope.

 

99 percent certain we not only draft a QB, but do so in the second round.