Contract #'s for NFL's best G's and S's

[Estro]

I've seen many posters agree that the Bills must retain Byrd and LeVitre. I, too, would love to retain both, but a lot of people on this board are way off in what they think it will take to retain these 2. Howard Simon, had a nice article over at WGR550.com, breaking down the contacts of all the NFL's high end guards and it proved one thing: Anybody who thinks Andy LeVitre is going to sign a deal for $5-$6 million per year, just a couple of weeks before testing FA for the first time in his life, is out of their mind. To eliminate some of the falsehoods on this board, I'd like to take a look at the contract #'s of high end safeties and high end guards, so we can at least have a basis for the type of money these 2 will get this offseason.

 

Guards

1. Carl Nicks: 5 years - $47.5 million, $31 million guaranteed (signed 2012) $9.5 million per season average

2. Logan Mankins: 6 years - $51 million, $30 million guaranteed (signed 2011) $8.5 million average

3. Jahri Evans: 7 years - $56.7 million, $19.2 million guaranteed (signed 2010) $8.1 million average

4. Davin Joseph: 7 years - $52.5 million, $19 million guaranteed (signed 2011) $7.5 million average

5. Chris Snee: 6 years - $43.5 million, $17 million guaranteed (signed 2008) $7.25 million average

6. Ben Grubbs: 5 years - $36 million, $16 million guaranteed (signed 2012) $7.2 million average

7. Justin Blalock: 6 years - $38.4 million, $16 million guaranteed (signed 2011) $6.4 million average

8. Marshal Yanda: 5 years - $32 million, $16.5 million guaranteed (signed 2011) $6.4 million aveage

 

Now we can put to bed the idea that LeVitre's agent will consider anything less than $6.4 million per. I doubt LeVitre will see Carl Nicks money, but I think his agent will definitely be pushing for $20 million + guaranteed, which would put him #3 on the list as far as guaranteed money is concerned. His agent will also push to get into the $8-$8.5 million per season range.

I'd also expect his contract to be 5 years, as the two most recent high priced OG contracts have been for 5 years (Nicks and Grubbs). This way the player has a chance to get one more shot at FA before they're ancient by NFL standards.

 

Final prediction: 5 years - $41.5 million, $22 million guaranteed ......... $8.3 million average

 

And for the record I don't think it'll be with the Bills.

 

Now for the safeties:

 

Safeties

1. Eric Berry: 6 years - $60 million, $34 million guaranteed (signed 2010) $10 million per

2. Troy Polamalu: 4 years - $36.5 million, $14 million guaranteed (signed 2011) $9.125 million per

3. Eric Weddle: 5 years - $40 million, $19 million guaranteed (signed 2011) $8 million per

4. Michael Huff: 4 years - $32 million, $16 million guaranteed (signed 2011) $8 million per

5. Antrel Rolle: 5 years - $37 million, $15 million guaranteed (signed 2010) $7.4 million per

6. Michael Griffin: 5 years - $35 million, $15 million guaranteed (signed 2012) $7 million per

 

Eric Berry's contract is a bit of an outlier, as it came when the NFL was still forking over insane money to highly drafted rookies. I'd expect Byrd's agent to be looking for a deal well north of what Weddle got 2 years ago. Weddle and Byrd are both solid all around safeties that are capable vs. the pass and the run. What seperates Byrd a bit, IMO is his ability to create turnovers and his physicality vs. the run. He has 18 interceptions and 10 forced fumbles in 4 seasons. Weddle has 16 interceptions and 2 forced fumbles in 6 seasons. In other words, Byrd's forcing 7 turnovers a season, Weddle 3 turnovers a season. Big advantage for Byrd, in terms of negotiations, especially when you factor in Weddle's deal is already 2 years old.

 

Final predicition: The Bills will slap the franchise tag on Byrd, because it's the most economic friendly solution for the team to retain Byrd, and I'd expect the Bills to tag him again next year if they can't work out a long term deal prior to next years free agency. That would be $6.8 million this season, and $8.16 million (120% of last years contract) in 2014. 2 years at just under $15 million is a steal for the Bills, when compared to the other deals handed out to safeties leaguewide.

If they are able to work out a long term deal I'll say: 5 years - $45 million, $21.8 million guaranteed

Edited February 21, 2013 by Estro

[1B4IDie]

Excellent work.

Both are with it.

[NewEra]

I've seen many posters agree that the Bills must retain Byrd and LeVitre. I, too, would love to retain both, but a lot of people on this board are way off in what they think it will take to retain these 2. Howard Simon, had a nice article over at WGR550.com, breaking down the contacts of all the NFL's high end guards and it proved one thing: Anybody who thinks Andy LeVitre is going to sign a deal for $5-$6 million per year, just a couple of weeks before testing FA for the first time in his life, is out of their mind. To eliminate some of the falsehoods on this board, I'd like to take a look at the contract #'s of high end safeties and high end guards, so we can at least have a basis for the type of money these 2 will get this offseason.

 

Guards

1. Carl Nicks: 5 years - $47.5 million, $31 million guaranteed (signed 2012) $9.5 million per season average

2. Logan Mankins: 6 years - $51 million, $30 million guaranteed (signed 2011) $8.5 million average

3. Jahri Evans: 7 years - $56.7 million, $19.2 million guaranteed (signed 2010) $8.1 million average

4. Davin Joseph: 7 years - $52.5 million, $19 million guaranteed (signed 2011) $7.5 million average

5. Chris Snee: 6 years - $43.5 million, $17 million guaranteed (signed 2008) $7.25 million average

6. Ben Grubbs: 5 years - $36 million, $16 million guaranteed (signed 2012) $7.2 million average

7. Justin Blalock: 6 years - $38.4 million, $16 million guaranteed (signed 2011) $6.4 million average

8. Marshal Yanda: 5 years - $32 million, $16.5 million guaranteed (signed 2011) $6.4 million aveage

 

Now we can put to bed the idea that LeVitre's agent will consider anything less than $6.4 million per. I doubt LeVitre will see Carl Nicks money, but I think his agent will definitely be pushing for $20 million + guaranteed, which would put him #3 on the list as far as guaranteed money is concerned. His agent will also push to get into the $8-$8.5 million per season range.

I'd also expect his contract to be 5 years, as the two most recent high priced OG contracts have been for 5 years (Nicks and Grubbs). This way the player has a chance to get one more shot at FA before they're ancient by NFL standards.

 

Final prediction: 5 years - $41.5 million, $22 million guaranteed ......... $8.3 million average

 

And for the record I don't think it'll be with the Bills.

 

Now for the safeties:

 

Safeties

1. Eric Berry: 6 years - $60 million, $34 million guaranteed (signed 2010) $10 million per

2. Troy Polamalu: 4 years - $36.5 million, $14 million guaranteed (signed 2011) $9.125 million per

3. Eric Weddle: 5 years - $40 million, $19 million guaranteed (signed 2011) $8 million per

4. Michael Huff: 4 years - $32 million, $16 million guaranteed (signed 2011) $8 million per

5. Antrel Rolle: 5 years - $37 million, $15 million guaranteed (signed 2010) $7.4 million per

6. Michael Griffin: 5 years - $35 million, $15 million guaranteed (signed 2012) $7 million per

 

Eric Berry's contract is a bit of an outlier, as it came when the NFL was still forking over insane money to highly drafted rookies. I'd expect Byrd's agent to be looking for a deal well north of what Weddle got 2 years ago. Weddle and Byrd are both solid all around safeties that are capable vs. the pass and the run. What seperates Byrd a bit, IMO is his ability to create turnovers and his physicality vs. the run. He has 18 interceptions and 10 forced fumbles in 4 seasons. Weddle has 16 interceptions and 2 forced fumbles in 6 seasons. In other words, Byrd's forcing 7 turnovers a season, Weddle 3 turnovers a season. Big advantage for Byrd, in terms of negotiations, especially when you factor in Weddle's deal is already 2 years old.

 

Final predicition: The Bills will slap the franchise tag on Byrd, because it's the most economic friendly solution for the team to retain Byrd, and I'd expect the Bills to tag him again next year if they can't work out a long term deal prior to next years free agency. That would be $6.8 million this season, and $8.16 million (120% of last years contract) in 2014. 2 years at just under $15 million is a steal for the Bills, when compared to the other deals handed out to safeties leaguewide.

If they are able to work out a long term deal I'll say: 5 years - $45 million, $21.8 million guaranteed

 

Spot on sir. I really hope to see Byrd in a Bills uniform his entire career. He really might be the best player on our team. TOs are paramount in the NfL and Byrd might be the best in the NfL at creating them. I think he has a lot of Ed Reed in him. Not saying he'll ever be as good as Reed, IMO the best safety ever, but he has a nose for the ball and the big play. His football instincts are among the best in the league. He's easily my favorite defensive player the Bills have had since Bruce, over Takeo and Pat Williams.

[Prickly Pete]

I think you are right, all down the line.

[ALF]

Excellent data find, thanks. We need both players to stay to make any progress from here out. T Jax $1.75 million looks a lot better then 4.5 early report. Get Fitz down to $4 million plus good incentives if he delivers or cut him now. Stop letting good players walk .

[billsrcursed]

Great thread, well done OP.

 

I was hoping someone with a little more time would better explain the situations with these 2.

[Dibs]

Great stuff.

 

I notice you used average/year. This is how I have always naturally looked at contracts.....but have come to realize that there are flaws with doing this.

Often contracts have loaded back ends which boosts the average....and the standard for Franchise Tagging seems to be based upon each individual years numbers rather than the average.

 

Do you(or others) know if there is a standard way of looking at contracts(by players/teams)......or is it a matter of having to break down and analyze each one?

[Mango]

Levitre isn't listed as a top 8 guard in the league, something to consider. Id like to get him for 6 and change, I think that is realistic. He isn't Mankins, Nicks, or Evans. 7 and change is relatively fair, but to get this guy for 8-9 mil is not a true representation of his talent. The fact of the matter is that the Bills haven't been so bad for 13 years because of coaching necessarily it is their creating and filling of the same holes over and over again, we never build. I think both need to be overpaid, if need be, to stay here.

[Dr. Trooth]

I think you are right on Andy. He's not elite. He is solid, not spectacular. Slaussen could be had for Urbik money and the Bills actually get more physical at LG.

 

On Byrd. Although I think the FT is definitely in play, I've got this gut feeling that because Byrd is only 26, the Bills might try to work a 7 year deal that would have a comfortable opt out for both at the end of year 5.

[simpleman]

Thanks for the post with actual facts and figures instead of just opinions. It helps me see more clearly now. Hate to see Lev go, but the way you break it down it sounds like the best for the team as a whole. Too many needs and not enough money to be overpaying for solid but not stellar results.

[BillsVet]

Levitre isn't listed as a top 8 guard in the league, something to consider. Id like to get him for 6 and change, I think that is realistic. He isn't Mankins, Nicks, or Evans. 7 and change is relatively fair, but to get this guy for 8-9 mil is not a true representation of his talent. The fact of the matter is that the Bills haven't been so bad for 13 years because of coaching necessarily it is their creating and filling of the same holes over and over again, we never build. I think both need to be overpaid, if need be, to stay here.

 

Levitre's agent doesn't care about where AL ranks among NFL guards, nor should he. He'll point at those recent contracts noted here, highlight the player's durability, and convince a team that paying a guard will help them win now. There are several teams that have to spend this off-season. And the OP's list clearly demonstrates that teams will pay good money for guards.

 

I agree the Bills create a lot of holes throughout their roster, but within the past 4 years they haven't drafted well enough to lose significant UFA's, save perhaps Posluszny. Now, that 2009 class featuring Levitre, Wood, and Byrd are coming due. And it also speaks to the lack of depth on this team, which is typically razor-thin and when an injury occurs, forces them to dumpster-dive on the waiver wire or insert some late round rookie. This has occurred for years and Buffalo and creates a convenient out when the team predictably nose-dives around the middle of the season.

Edited February 21, 2013 by BillsVet

[NoSaint]

Levitre isn't listed as a top 8 guard in the league, something to consider. Id like to get him for 6 and change, I think that is realistic. He isn't Mankins, Nicks, or Evans. 7 and change is relatively fair, but to get this guy for 8-9 mil is not a true representation of his talent. The fact of the matter is that the Bills haven't been so bad for 13 years because of coaching necessarily it is their creating and filling of the same holes over and over again, we never build. I think both need to be overpaid, if need be, to stay here.

 

Ive been using Grubbs as my anchor for what i expect - give or take a little. I really think as far as quality of play Grubbs is a good benchmark plus a few dollars for it being a year later and there is the sweet spot to get the deal done.

Edited February 21, 2013 by NoSaint

[JPS]

I don't want to turn this into a bash Buddy thread, but if believe in these guys, why not extend them last summer when you have a little leverage? So Byrd is here under the Franchise Tag and Levitre walks? If this is the case, the Bills are back in the O-Line business and staring a few guards in the face up high in the draft. It's like playing Whack-a-Mole.

[Zulu Cthulhu]

Great research OP and I agree with JPS - there's no good reason not to re-sign them both. It took the better part of a decade for the team to build a respectable OL.

[atlbillsfan1975]

Ive been using Grubbs as my anchor for what i expect - give or take a little. I really think as far as quality of play Grubbs is a good benchmark plus a few dollars for it being a year later and there is the sweet spot to get the deal done.

This was my thought. $7.5 mil.

The Bills do not have a ton of money tied up in the oline right now.

Urbik has the biggest deal on the team right now he is signed through 2016- $2.7m, $2.9m, $3.2m, $3.6m(Cap Hit).

Glenn has a very team friendly deal for another 3 years, his cap number is biggest in 2015 at $1.5m.

Pears and Hairston are signed through 2014 with their combined salary in 2013- $3.5m and 2014 being $4.1m.

Woods is set to make $3.3m this season. 2014 he is a FA. This will be a tricky one. If he holds up and has a pro bowl year this year he will command a nice salary. Injuries though will be the thing teams consider.

 

To me lock up Levitre first. The Bills do not have another single 'big' salary on the oline. And between Woods or Levitre i am going with Levitre.

Byrd will re-sign or get tagged. It does not make sense not too, unless Pettine think he can do the same or better with a smaller salaried FS.

And great work by the OP!

Edited February 21, 2013 by atlbillsfan1975

[K-9]

Levitre isn't listed as a top 8 guard in the league, something to consider. Id like to get him for 6 and change, I think that is realistic. He isn't Mankins, Nicks, or Evans. 7 and change is relatively fair, but to get this guy for 8-9 mil is not a true representation of his talent. The fact of the matter is that the Bills haven't been so bad for 13 years because of coaching necessarily it is their creating and filling of the same holes over and over again, we never build. I think both need to be overpaid, if need be, to stay here.

 

By whom?

 

Not that it matters anyway. The ONLY list an agent can present to a team in the hopes of creating leverage, is that showing All Pros and Pro Bowlers. They would be laughed out of the office is they tout rankings from ProFootballFocus, for example.

 

GO BILLS!!!

Edited February 21, 2013 by K-9

[Estro]

Great stuff.

 

I notice you used average/year. This is how I have always naturally looked at contracts.....but have come to realize that there are flaws with doing this.

Often contracts have loaded back ends which boosts the average....and the standard for Franchise Tagging seems to be based upon each individual years numbers rather than the average.

 

Do you(or others) know if there is a standard way of looking at contracts(by players/teams)......or is it a matter of having to break down and analyze each one?

 

 

You're right that many of these contracts contain bloated years at the back end of the contract, that the players will likely never see. I think most astute teams and agents around the league probably care more about the guaranteed money as well as the money thats paid out in the first 2-3 years ( which is money very likely to be seen)

 

I did not:ice that the arrangement of the contracts handed out to these guards are all over the map as far as structuring is concerned. Some teams hand out big signing bonuses coupled with relatively low base salaries the first couple years. Other teams hand out very low or virtually no signing bonuses, but pay out a high base salary, and guarantee the first 2 years of salary

Edited February 21, 2013 by Estro

[JPS]

BTW - Great post Estro. Some very good info there.

[Homey D. Clown]

it's yet to be proven that Levitre is a top 10 guard, but if he's not, he is very close. If this team wants to continue to grow, it's mandatory these 2 players are retained.

[Kellyto83TD]

Guards are not worth that kind of money. I say let him move on and draft one.