Bill Polian Ruined my Day!

[NewEra]

id agree with this completely if none of the QBs in the draft are worth it.

 

Pick up a Jason Campbell, still draft a young QB in round 3-4 to groom. At the least, he can become a backup for the foreseeable future.

 

Then, next season, drop the bomb and give away the farm for the #1 guy.

 

This

[Lurker]

Kaepernick and Wilson were game changers this year and brought their teams to playoffs and Superbowl.

And I submit, if the Bills had either the 49ers or Seahawks' defense, they would have made the playoffs as well. San Fran and Seattle were very well balanced and the Bills simply were not. Period.

 

Fitz is not good enough, but neither is the surrounding talent, especially on defense. Rookies like Wilson, Kap, or even RGIII would have had less success here than on their respective teams.

 

Throwing a rookie QB from this year's less-than-stellar draft class into the Buffalo situation is a questionable move, IMO, unless Pettine can work some miracles with the sow's ears he has at LB, SS and CB depth....

[Buffalo Barbarian]

If you could only go to the QB store & buy a good one, the Bills need a draft miracle.

 

if only We could draft Manzeil (or Bortles, McCarron) a year in advance (where is that day dreaming emoticon; it should be some smiling emoticon gazing up into the clouds with rainbows and angels playing harps and stuff)

 

Off topic, but you could make a case that every GM makes mistakes. After all, who is the backup QB in New England? And how many snaps has he played the past 2 years?

 

The draft remains an inexact science, but some play the game better than others. Polian's record before his son took more control was stellar. To say anything different is foolish.

 

Mallett is the backup and we could have had him in the 3rd round, but Nixy thought Fitzy was the answer

[Trader]

I was listening to Sirius NFL radio today, and much to my delight Bill Polian was discussing the Buffalo Bills. The conversation began when a caller asked what Polian would do about the Bills' QB position. So here is the summary.

 

-Ryan Fitzpatrick is not good enough. He likes the guy, just like most of us, but the Bills need better play out of the QB position.

-Matt Flynn because of his height and arm strength can only succeed in the West Coast Offense, so unless we run that he is not an option.

-He thought that Alex Smith was sub-par.

-Then the final kicker, Bill Polian does not believe there is a franchise QB in this years draft.

 

This reminds of a "chose your own adventure" book, except that no matter what decision you chose you end up losing. Maybe Polian is wrong. We can only hope. Unfortunately, for the Bills he had a long career as a GM because he was right a lot more often then he was wrong.

 

I think he is right about this one.

[Captain Hindsight]

Bills lost 4 games where they scored 28, 28, 34 and 31 points. Not defending Fitz too much but a half decent defense and maybe we contend for a playoff spot.

Agreed. We could do far worse

[auburnbillsbacker]

I like Bill Polian, but let me be devils advocate here ... did he sense that Kaepernick or WIlson were franchise QB's? Probably not. He's referring to guys like Luck and RG3, none of which are playing in the SB next Sunday.

Kaepernick and Wilson were game changers this year and brought their teams to playoffs and Superbowl. Is there a candidate in this years group that rivals any of these guys? WHo knows. I say draft a QB this year and next, keep trying until we get it right and move heaven and earth to get the right guy.

There may be a diamond in the rough out there ... EJ Manuel?

 

No one thought Wilson would be a franchise QB, and that includes Seattle. There is no way they wait until the 3rd round to select him if they thought he was a franchise QB. Heck, even the packers and patriots would have drafted him in the 2nd if they knew how good he is. Some people were real high on Kapernick prior to the draft. I know it is going to seem like I am an employee of Sirius NFL radio, but Pat Kirwain and Tim Ryan talked endlessly about Kaepernick beginning with the first practice of the Senior Bowl.

[Playoff Bound]

Time will tell about Wilson & Kaepernick. I would agree you need a franchise quarterback to be competitive year after year, but even that doesn't guarantee a superbowl. Payton Manning would be called a franchise quarterback but he has only delivered one superbowl win. The same number as Trent Dilfer has delivered, and he was no franchise quarterback. The Bills should not reach in this years draft or they will just throw another draft pick away and pass on a player who could really help them. I say stick with Fitz. That practically promises no better than a six win season and gives us a better draft position next year. Fitz is the man to deliver a six win or worse season.

[Dragonborn10]

They are all wrong some of the time. Trade down and increase your chances of being right. This team needs three LB's, a WR, a TE, a back-up DB, and a franchise QB. All that assumes Byrd and Levitre are resigned. It would take the draft of a century to pull that off. The Bills need to make a move or two in FA. If they resign Levitre and Byrd then look for them to get a couple of middle tier LB's and maybe a veteran QB like Hasselbeck. Then look to the draft to get an impact LB, a QB prosepct and a WR. I don't see them getting Bowe, Byrd and Levitre but one can always hope...

[Dibs]

Auburn BB, thanks for the post. Interesting insights from Polian.

 

I'm not a draft geek so let me ask... How many drafts don't include, in retrospect, at least one NFL caliber QB?

 

My hunch is that it's not many but I could be wrong.

 

If you discount the top 4 picks in the draft, you are indeed wrong. Outside of the top 4 picks there is usually zero to one QB drafted each year that becomes "NFL caliber".

 

It seems to me (based on this study http://forums.twobil...ing-success-qb/) that in regards to scouting and talent evaluation, the QB position is one of the easiest positions to predict a starter. The few QBs who show that special potential rocket up the draft board and are invariably selected in the top 4 in the draft. Very few QBs(percentage wise) outside of this select group ever become solid starters for their drafted teams.

 

Taken from my study....

1986-2005

QBs who had 5+ years of 12+ starts for their drafted team* (Starter)

 

Top 4

19 players selected

9 Starters (47%)

 

Picks 5-33 QBs (have adjusted numbers thanks to KellyDog's point).

25 players selected

4 Starters (16%)

 

Picks 34-end of round 3

40 players selected

0 Starters (0%)

 

 

I don't want to presume what Polian meant.....but without clarification from him, I am doubtful that he is suggesting that none of the QBs "can" become a franchise QB.....just that there are none(at this point) that are graded as having a high chance of success(top 4 pick).

 

 

 

To those posters promoting we wait till next season(2014)......unless we can get a top 4 pick which can net us one of these highly rated QB prospects....we have just as much chance this year of finding our guy (1 in 6) with our 1st round pick as next year.

Edited January 28, 2013 by Dibs

[truth on hold]

I generally agree with his assessment of the talent out there , but it sounds like he's being too definitive. Flynn may have a better arm than he thinks and west coast offense is good anyway. Didn't hurt Montana and Steve young! So if he's Jeff Garcia that's a huge upgrade for us. Also who really knows what alex smith's ceiling is. there's every reason to believe 9ers would still be going to super bowl of he stayed at qb.

As for draft if you look historically in most cases you will find at least 1 or 2 pro bowlers

http://www.nfl.com/draft/history/fulldraft?type=position

 

Although I can see bills reaching this year and pulling the trigger on a guy they shouldnt have in rd 1 or 2, in a desperate attempt to try and make up for mistakes of the past. Be just our luck (bad) too theyre determined to go qb hunting in a bad year.

Edited January 28, 2013 by Joe_the_6_pack

[Dibs]

As for draft if you look historically in most cases you will find at least 1 or 2 pro bowlers....

 

Pro Bowl appearance is not very relevant when it comes to determining if your drafted QB is going to become the answer to your QB problems.

 

There is a much higher percent of probowls/starter for the QB position than any other. Typically there are a minimum of 6 QBs each year who achieve pro bowl status....last year 8...this year 10.

 

To name a few......Kerry Collins, Derek Anderson, Jake Delhomme, Jake Plummer, Trent Green, David Garrard, Marc Bulger.....were all pro bowlers who were not the answer for their drafting teams at QB.

[truth on hold]

 

 

Pro Bowl appearance is not very relevant when it comes to determining if your drafted QB is going to become the answer to your QB problems.

 

There is a much higher percent of probowls/starter for the QB position than any other. Typically there are a minimum of 6 QBs each year who achieve pro bowl status....last year 8...this year 10.

 

To name a few......Kerry Collins, Derek Anderson, Jake Delhomme, Jake Plummer, Trent Green, David Garrard, Marc Bulger.....were all pro bowlers who were not the answer for their drafting teams at QB.

Yeah I know it was just a quick snapshot look. BTW of the 7 guys you identified why its not good, all but Anderson in their prime would be a huge upgrade over what we have and signifiicantly brighten our prospects.

Edited January 28, 2013 by Joe_the_6_pack

[Dibs]

Yeah I know it was just a quick snapshot look. BTW of the 7 guys you identified why its not good, all but Anderson in their prime would be a huge upgrade over what we have and signifiicantly brighten our prospects.

 

I don't see that they would significantly brighten our prospects at all. The problem is that most of those names didn't hit their prime for the team that drafted them.....and their prime was very short lived.

 

I see no value in drafting a QB who shows promise.....struggles for several seasons.....gets cut....gets picked up for a different team.....and then has a few good seasons for them. Plummer is a great example of this.

 

Kerry Collins is also a great example as he actually went to the pro bowl for his drafting team. I'm sure the Panthers were hoping for more than a few decent(ish) years from their #5 draft pick. It matters little to the Panthers that he had several good seasons later in his career for several other teams.

Edited January 28, 2013 by Dibs

[The Poojer]

tom brady....

 

Bill Polian....hmmm...the name sounds familiar. Oh wait, isn't he the guy that thought Curtis Painter was an adequate back-up for #18?

The bottom line - no one really knows (i.e. Russell Wilson...pick # 75 last year)

[auburnbillsbacker]

I just read something scary in Peter King's Monday Morning QB article today. He talks about how San Fransicco was trying to trade up to get Colin Kaepernick, but apparently they knew that Buffalo was not going to take him or Dalton in round 2. Shouldn't our draft intentions be secret? If teams know who we like and don't like they can maneveur around us. I hope the niners were just quessing and didn't really know.

[PromoTheRobot]

Sorry, but I'm to the point where I rather waste a pick in trying, than to waste another year watching Fitz choke. Does that make sense to you?

Yeah! Let's waste a pick! That's always the better move when building a football team.

 

PTR

 

I just read something scary in Peter King's Monday Morning QB article today. He talks about how San Fransicco was trying to trade up to get Colin Kaepernick, but apparently they knew that Buffalo was not going to take him or Dalton in round 2. Shouldn't our draft intentions be secret? If teams know who we like and don't like they can maneveur around us. I hope the niners were just quessing and didn't really know.

 

http://m.si.com/1320468/are-you-ready-super-bowl-xlvii-week-is-off-and-running-2/

Edited January 28, 2013 by PromoTheRobot

[C.Biscuit97]

1) Nix would be a much better GM if he could have had the #1 pick with one of the greatest QBs ever on the board or inherited Jim Kelly.

 

2) I do agree that Flynn or Smith aren't the answers. They are slightly better version of Fitz. They are just guys. I'm sick of just guys.

 

3) As others have said, the league and the HOF are filled with guys who weren't "franchise" QBs- Warner, Montana, Brady, Romo, Kaepernick, Wilson, etc.

 

4) Draft until you get it right.

[bowery4]

The number of points is the wrong stat to focus in on. I'm sure (without looking it up), Fits had either a key 3 and out or turnover that cost the Bills those games. He doesn't win. The defense will be better if the Bills get a better QB.

Lots of people were saying before last year Fitz would be better if the D was better. I think at least some of Fitz's problem was Chan's coaching... I don't know, don't like Fitz much either anymore but really just don't know.... He was good for about a seasons worth of time Gailey's first year into the second, He wasn't after or much before that.

I almost think he is better or as good as Smith but Smith was managed well by Harbugh.

 

If you discount the top 4 picks in the draft, you are indeed wrong. Outside of the top 4 picks there is usually zero to one QB drafted each year that becomes "NFL caliber".

 

It seems to me (based on this study http://forums.twobil...ing-success-qb/) that in regards to scouting and talent evaluation, the QB position is one of the easiest positions to predict a starter. The few QBs who show that special potential rocket up the draft board and are invariably selected in the top 4 in the draft. Very few QBs(percentage wise) outside of this select group ever become solid starters for their drafted teams.

 

Taken from my study....

1986-2005

QBs who had 5+ years of 12+ starts for their drafted team* (Starter)

 

Top 4

19 players selected

9 Starters (47%)

 

Picks 5-33 QBs (have adjusted numbers thanks to KellyDog's point).

25 players selected

4 Starters (16%)

 

Picks 34-end of round 3

40 players selected

0 Starters (0%)

 

 

I don't want to presume what Polian meant.....but without clarification from him, I am doubtful that he is suggesting that none of the QBs "can" become a franchise QB.....just that there are none(at this point) that are graded as having a high chance of success(top 4 pick).

 

 

 

To those posters promoting we wait till next season(2014)......unless we can get a top 4 pick which can net us one of these highly rated QB prospects....we have just as much chance this year of finding our guy (1 in 6) with our 1st round pick as next year.

Brady, 6th round 2000 and historically many more. Your post is what I do not like about the moneyball (draft) approach, good scouting and coaching are not accounted for.

[mrags]

I just read something scary in Peter King's Monday Morning QB article today. He talks about how San Fransicco was trying to trade up to get Colin Kaepernick, but apparently they knew that Buffalo was not going to take him or Dalton in round 2. Shouldn't our draft intentions be secret? If teams know who we like and don't like they can maneveur around us. I hope the niners were just quessing and didn't really know.

that is kinda scary.

 

Kaepernick was the QB I wanted above all others that draft. Even more than the top choices. Thought he had the best upside and would be a star in this league.

 

I guess well see after Sunday.

[auburnbillsbacker]

Yeah! Let's waste a pick! That's always the better move when building a football team.

 

PTR

 

 

 

http://m.si.com/1320...-and-running-2/

Thanks for adding the link.