Bills have the 9th most runs in the NFL...there goes that argument...

[Gugny]

I'm surprised at this stat, to be honest. Personally, I believe the problem is "situational playcalling." It's been established that Buffalo runs the ball a pretty healthy amount. But I think it's fair to say that they don't run the ball at the right times on many occasions.

 

I don't think I'm alone when I either scratch my head, or yell, "what the !@#$ are you doing with an empty backfield on first down?!?!?!" You replace every one of those bonehead playcalls with a run, and I think the number looks even prettier, as well as T.O.P. and hell, maybe even points scored and wins.

 

Chan has inexplicably abandoned the run throughout his tenure. He's obviously run the ball, based on the statistics from the O.P. (thank you, by the way). But it's my opinion that a) we should run even more - to the tune of top 5 in the league and b) we should run 3/4 downs whenever we have a lead of more than 10.

 

Go Bills.

[PaattMaann]

I dont care if the Bills are first in the league in rushing attempts....run the ball more!!!!!

 

When you have a terrible QB, you hide this fact by running more, and then more...and just when they think your gonna pass, run the ball some more!!!! I wouldnt mind a game with not a single passing attempt by Fitzpatrick....

 

youve got two horses, run em into the ground

[peterpan]

Just because the rest of the league doesnt run enough doesnt mean we shouldnt run enough either.

 

No more second halfs with 7 rush attempts and 30 pass attempts.

[peterpan]

OK, here are the breakdowns:

 

Bills have the 9th most running attempts in the NFL

Bills have the 27th most passing attempts in the NFL

Bills have the 27th most total offensive plays from scrimmage in the NFL

Bills run the ball 8th most as a percentage of total offensive plays at 46.47% of all plays, with the Jets directly above them at 46.66%, so for all intents and purposes, they run the ball almost exactly the same percentage of the time(amounts to 6 carries difference over 12 games)

 

Here is the list of top running teams by percentage of total plays:

 

1) Seattle: 53.47% (Russell Wilson 66 carries)

2) Washington: 51.12% (Robert Griffin 105 carries)

3) San Fran: 50.83% (Kapernick/Smith 69 carries)

4) Kansas City: 48.88%

5) Houston: 48.82%

6) Chicago: 48.13%

7) NY Jets: 46.66%

8) Buffalo: 46.47% (Fitz 38 carries)

9) Carolina: 45.44% (Newton 95 carries)

10) New England: 45.41%

11) Minnesota: 44.98%(Peterson far and away the leagues leading rusher and they run the ball LESS than the Bills)

12) Miami: 44.93%

 

Least Running Teams in the NFL by percentage of plays:

 

1) Oakland: 33.25%

2) New Orleans: 33.97%

3) Detroit: 34.02%

4) Arizona: 34.57%

5) Dallas: 34.72%

6) Tennessee: 36.66%

7) Jacksonville: 37.03%

8) Atlanta: 37.55% (polar opposite of the other 11-1 team, Houston...Matt Ryan winging that ball all over the field)

9) Indianapolis: 38.04%

10) San Diego: 39.31%

11) Baltimore: 39.45% (its turning into the Flacco show not the Rice show in Baltimore)

12) Cleveland: 39.94%

 

Lets stop pretending the Bills don't run it and always throw...in fact they are one of the MORE lopsided teams in relation to run/pass percentage there is out there...have a feeling they would be even higher on this list if not for them having to throw virtually all game against the Jets and 49ers games because they were getting blown out...you want to talk about teams that don't run the ball? Look at all those teams that are under 40/60 run/pass ratio....

 

I see that one list has a lot more good teams on it than the other list.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

OK, here are the breakdowns:

 

Bills have the 9th most running attempts in the NFL

Bills have the 27th most passing attempts in the NFL

Bills have the 27th most total offensive plays from scrimmage in the NFL

Bills run the ball 8th most as a percentage of total offensive plays at 46.47% of all plays, with the Jets directly above them at 46.66%, so for all intents and purposes, they run the ball almost exactly the same percentage of the time(amounts to 6 carries difference over 12 games)

 

Here is the list of top running teams by percentage of total plays:

 

1) Seattle: 53.47% (Russell Wilson 66 carries)

2) Washington: 51.12% (Robert Griffin 105 carries)

3) San Fran: 50.83% (Kapernick/Smith 69 carries)

4) Kansas City: 48.88%

5) Houston: 48.82%

6) Chicago: 48.13%

7) NY Jets: 46.66%

8) Buffalo: 46.47% (Fitz 38 carries)

9) Carolina: 45.44% (Newton 95 carries)

10) New England: 45.41%

11) Minnesota: 44.98%(Peterson far and away the leagues leading rusher and they run the ball LESS than the Bills)

12) Miami: 44.93%

 

Least Running Teams in the NFL by percentage of plays:

 

1) Oakland: 33.25%

2) New Orleans: 33.97%

3) Detroit: 34.02%

4) Arizona: 34.57%

5) Dallas: 34.72%

6) Tennessee: 36.66%

7) Jacksonville: 37.03%

8) Atlanta: 37.55% (polar opposite of the other 11-1 team, Houston...Matt Ryan winging that ball all over the field)

9) Indianapolis: 38.04%

10) San Diego: 39.31%

11) Baltimore: 39.45% (its turning into the Flacco show not the Rice show in Baltimore)

12) Cleveland: 39.94%

 

Lets stop pretending the Bills don't run it and always throw...in fact they are one of the MORE lopsided teams in relation to run/pass percentage there is out there...have a feeling they would be even higher on this list if not for them having to throw virtually all game against the Jets and 49ers games because they were getting blown out...you want to talk about teams that don't run the ball? Look at all those teams that are under 40/60 run/pass ratio....

 

Curious on your source, since you didn't link it.

 

One reason I'm curious is that some calculate run/pass split from total offensive plays from scrimmage (ie include a percentage of punts), some use only run + pass plays, and some use total plays called (ie penalties resulting in repeat of a down). So to interpret, it would be useful to understand exactly what we're talking about.

 

Any event, I agree with the folks who say we should be running as frequently as a team like the Texans and 49ers, who combine a game-manager type QB with stellar running backs. As for how little the Vikes run w/ AP in their backfield - let's look at their W-L record before we take them as a model, eh?

 

Just so we are clear tho...3rd and 2 is a passing down and distance in the NFL these days for most teams

 

You may well be right that's how "most teams" treat it. I wonder if "most teams" is misleading?

There are teams with elite QB. They are entitled to throw on any d*** down and yardage they please

There are teams with losing records. They are not to be emulated, lest we remain among them.

 

Then there are teams a similar situation to ours - they don't have an elite QB at the helm - but have great W-L record

 

My question is, what do THOSE teams do on 3rd and 2?

[silvermike]

If you want a math-heavy analysis, look here:

http://www.footballperspective.com/game-scripts-part-iii-2012-results/

 

Adjusted for average game situation (you run with a lead, pass when behind), we're one of the more run-heavy teams this season. And that doesn't include last week's game. But I agree it doesn't feel right. I think a big part of it is that we're such a better rushing team than a passing team, so far out of proportion to the rest of the league, normalized numbers don't add up for us. Especially in a league that's pass-heavy by default.

 

We run a lot, compared to the league, but it still doesn't mean we run as much as we should.

[Alphadawg7]

How are people still even debating this after I posted the stats (on page 2 of this thread) that literally proved without a shadow of doubt we do not run enough. The stats put an end to that debate and showed flat out with 100% accuracy that when we run we win, when we pass we lose. To the tune of 100% of the time this year. Again, check page 2 for the full post, but here is a summary of the stats for people who seem to still think we run enough and dont want to go read the other post...

 

We are 5-0 when we either have near a 50/50 split of pass to run or a higher number of runs to passes. In fact in 5 wins, its almost a 60-40 split of carries to passes.

 

We are 0-7 when we have a higher number of passes than runs. In fact in 7 losses the ratio is 60-40 split of passes to runs. And no, we did not have to throw to get back in all those games. Only 2 games got grossly out of hand early...Jets and SF. All the other ones, were winnable games deep into the 2nd half where running was more than acceptable and was the most effective thing we had going but just didnt do it.

 

Even more interesting, when the split was right at 50/50 we barely won and had close games. In the 2 games where we had way more carries to passes we won big and dominated the game.

 

Yet this thread continues with people still arguing its a myth that we dont run enough...lol

Edited December 7, 2012 by Alphadawg7

[PromoTheRobot]

When Fitz is your QB and CJ and fred are your RB's you should be first in runs and the #2 shouldnt even be close

You know if all you did was hand the ball off the CJ teams might start to key on him...just maybe.

 

PTR

[mrags]

 

 

In the chaos that is the losing ways of the Bills, lots of rooted in battles occur. I take nothing personal, and hope you dont either, no disagreements are meant to be personal, we are all frustrated especially after all the hype and high expectations coming into this season. I agree with your assessment of Fitz in this post and we are more on the same page than previous discussions would suggest. I would say though that while I do think Fitz is the best QB we have had since Bledsoe, I will follow that with the statement that isnt very meaningful given the people before him.

 

While I agree with most of what you wrote, I am not so sure Chan isnt already doing what you fear him doing with a rookie that doesnt pan out. Chan still puts the game on Fitzs shoulders more often than not, even when he doesnt have to, despite the fact that Fitz keeps coming up short. In fact, one could say that its Chan that keeps putting Fitz in position to fail rather than playing to the teams strengths.

 

I would love nothing more than to see Fitz become a solid QB for us, heck I like the guy and his guts. He was even amazing on "The League" in his guest spot this season (a show that you should watch if you do fantasy football...its pretty funny sitcom). However, 8 years of data suggest other wise. Can he become a game manager and lean on the run game? Well the data suggests its possible above, as we won when we pounded the rock or had a balanced attack. But, for what ever reason Chan more often than not still relies too much on Fitz and when he does we are winless.

 

Anyways, cheers to aligning on a topic and realizing we are not that much different on our view of Fitz than it would seem...here is a beer on me

have a beer in me as well. As we have been messaging in other areas, we are not far away on our views at all. Enjoy the game on Sunday. Here's to CJ and Freddy each having 150 yards and we win big.

[Haplo848]

Bills have attempted the 9th most runs in the NFL this year with 342, or 46.4% of their total offensive plays. Factor in Washington's total is inflated by Griffin's runs and Bills likely are 8th in actual RB rushes.

 

Buffalo also has run a fairly low 736 offensive plays, which means their percentage of plays that are runs might be higher than 8th as well...

 

The argument the Bills don't run as much as other teams is completely false...we run more than most of them...

 

The problem with this post is that I don't care how much we run the bowl with respect to the rest of the league. The problem is that we should be running AT LEAST as much as we pass the ball. That's what our offense is best at. It's not what every team is best at, so the fact that we're ranked 9th does not matter to me in the slightest.

[mrags]

Just because the rest of the league doesnt run enough doesnt mean we shouldnt run enough either.

 

No more second halfs with 7 rush attempts and 30 pass attempts.

perfectly said.

 

As I may not agree with the thoughts that pass happy wins more than runs in the league. It is indisputable that when we run more, we win more. And that fact right there tells me that WE should run more. We are not other teams, we are the Bills and we have possibly the best RB in the league (who's underutilized) and another back that's very good.

[3rdand12]

Put the ball in the playmakers hands. Thats Freddy and CJ.

It could be a receiver like Stevie if we had more pieces in the downfield passing game to support and surround him. ahem.

We are not the Steelers with Jerome Bettis so we probably cant shove the ball down the throat of defenses.

Bills are more a nifty zone blocking crew anyways.

I want to run the ball more and more to open the pass.

But as long as we are getting the majority of touches to our Biggest playmakers, again CJ and Fred our chances improve.

IMHO that is.

Thanks alpha

 

Curious on your source, since you didn't link it.

 

One reason I'm curious is that some calculate run/pass split from total offensive plays from scrimmage (ie include a percentage of punts), some use only run + pass plays, and some use total plays called (ie penalties resulting in repeat of a down). So to interpret, it would be useful to understand exactly what we're talking about.

 

Any event, I agree with the folks who say we should be running as frequently as a team like the Texans and 49ers, who combine a game-manager type QB with stellar running backs. As for how little the Vikes run w/ AP in their backfield - let's look at their W-L record before we take them as a model, eh?

 

 

 

You may well be right that's how "most teams" treat it. I wonder if "most teams" is misleading?

There are teams with elite QB. They are entitled to throw on any d*** down and yardage they please

There are teams with losing records. They are not to be emulated, lest we remain among them.

 

Then there are teams a similar situation to ours - they don't have an elite QB at the helm - but have great W-L record

 

My question is, what do THOSE teams do on 3rd and 2?

Lest we ?

Let us not emulate them then. ye gods have spake

[BisonMan]

First, let me say that I have often yelled at the TV when the Bills lined up in a 5-wide 3rd and 1 situation. I'm a fan of at least pretending you are going to run the ball in those situations. Nonetheless, I have serious disagreements with an analysis that says "When we run more, we win more." With that statement, I think they are saying that running more causes us to win.

 

I think that likely has the causality wrong. We could have easily said, "When we're winning, we run more." The statistics from one poster bears that out in spades. The larger the winning margin, the larger the run/pass ratio. The larger the losing margin, the smaller that ratio. Every team with a big lead runs more even if their running game sucks. There is no sense creating turnovers rather than focusing on killing the clock. Last night the Broncos were without their starting RB and still ran on almost every play in the 4th quarter with Peyton Manning at the helm.

 

Situational running analyses are much better for this type of thing. I saw one post here with reference to that and the Bills appear to run more than almost every other team given a score weighting. It's OK to have issues with when/how the Bills use the run vs. the pass but it's silly to say that they don't run enough or that running more drives winning.

Edited December 8, 2012 by BisonMan

[Alphadawg7]

First, let me say that I have often yelled at the TV when the Bills lined up in a 5-wide 3rd and 1 situation. I'm a fan of at least pretending you are going to run the ball in those situations. Nonetheless, I have serious disagreements with an analysis that says "When we run more, we win more." With that statement, I think they are saying that running more causes us to win.

 

I think that likely has the causality wrong. We could have easily said, "When we're winning, we run more." The statistics from one poster bears that out in spades. The larger the winning margin, the larger the run/pass ratio. The larger the losing margin, the smaller that ratio. Every team with a big lead runs more even if their running game sucks. There is no sense creating turnovers rather than focusing on killing the clock. Last night the Broncos were without their starting RB and still ran on almost every play in the 4th quarter with Peyton Manning at the helm.

 

Situational running analyses are much better for this type of thing. I saw one post here with reference to that and the Bills appear to run more than almost every other team given a score weighting. It's OK to have issues with when/how the Bills use the run vs. the pass but it's silly to say that they don't run enough or that running more drives winning.

 

Totally agree, but what I found when I was doing the stats is that in the games the Bills ran more and won, it was not because of the score. We just ran more even when the game was close or we were behind. In the games we did not, we are also close in those games and there was no logical reason to abandon the run. In fact, in many games where Chan abandoned the run we had a lead, a tie, or were within one score going into the second half but still abandoned the run game despite large per carry averages for our RB's in those games.

 

So while you are correct in that it is situational the decisions to run more or run less by Chan have not followed that logic like you would expect. In fact, Chan has gone away from the run with out any clear reason to do so. In only 2 of our losses did we go down big and need to pass.

 

It really has come down to when Chan decides to feature the run or the pass that really has dictated our win loss record. Again, 5-0 in games where its balanced or run heavy and 0-7 when its pass heavy. And like I said in 5 of the 7 losses, there was no reason for him to go pass happy as the games were always within reach, tied, or we had a lead when he went away from the run.

[dayman]

How many times has fitz rushed? I bet 4 to 5 times per game. Not bashing ya just saying he takes off and runs frequently as well.

 

and I love it when he does...that's him at his best and our offense at it's most dynamic

[Alphadawg7]

perfectly said.

 

As I may not agree with the thoughts that pass happy wins more than runs in the league. It is indisputable that when we run more, we win more. And that fact right there tells me that WE should run more. We are not other teams, we are the Bills and we have possibly the best RB in the league (who's underutilized) and another back that's very good.

 

Exactly...here is my question...has anyone ever seen a situation where a team had a RB as talented as Spiller and under used him so little? The last time I can think of is Marcus Allen in Oakland, but that was because Al Davis and Allen hated each other. I mean even after Bo got hurt, still under used Allen. I just dont understand the logic in taking a guy in the top 10 who is dominating the league like no other when he gets the carries with an insane YPC (not to mention how dangerous he is in the screen game) and put him on the bench, even at times for Choice during key parts of the game. And its not like he is at least giving the Freddy the touches. He just refuses to accept that the talent on this team is run dominant, including our OL and I just dont get that.

 

I have no doubt that our record would be better by several more wins if we had leaned on the hot running game in several of our losses.

[San Jose Bills Fan]

Totally agree, but what I found when I was doing the stats is that in the games the Bills ran more and won, it was not because of the score. We just ran more even when the game was close or we were behind. In the games we did not, we are also close in those games and there was no logical reason to abandon the run. In fact, in many games where Chan abandoned the run we had a lead, a tie, or were within one score going into the second half but still abandoned the run game despite large per carry averages for our RB's in those games.

 

So while you are correct in that it is situational the decisions to run more or run less by Chan have not followed that logic like you would expect. In fact, Chan has gone away from the run with out any clear reason to do so. In only 2 of our losses did we go down big and need to pass.

 

It really has come down to when Chan decides to feature the run or the pass that really has dictated our win loss record. Again, 5-0 in games where its balanced or run heavy and 0-7 when its pass heavy. And like I said in 5 of the 7 losses, there was no reason for him to go pass happy as the games were always within reach, tied, or we had a lead when he went away from the run.

 

And to add yet again, the Bills are a very good run team and a very poor passing team.

 

So logically what is the better path to victory?

 

Looking forward to the rainy, windy game on Sunday.

 

Hope Chan doesn't tweak out (or however mrags put it).

[Buffalo Barbarian]

Bills have attempted the 9th most runs in the NFL this year with 342, or 46.4% of their total offensive plays. Factor in Washington's total is inflated by Griffin's runs and Bills likely are 8th in actual RB rushes.

 

Buffalo also has run a fairly low 736 offensive plays, which means their percentage of plays that are runs might be higher than 8th as well...

 

The argument the Bills don't run as much as other teams is completely false...we run more than most of them...

 

we should be number one.

[Big Turk]

There is a link in a previous reply that takes into account the score of the game when teams run and pass the ball and bases how pass happy teams are on it.

 

Last year the Bills passed on 60.8% of their plays and scored a +1 on his pass index. This year the Bills only throw on 53.5% of their plays and score a -22 on his pass index...4th lowest in the NFL and actually will end up on a top 50 or top 100 list of least pass happy teams in NFL history according to his score...again this is all standardized for each team bases on the playcalls and the average score of the game. He goes into a pretty thorough explanation of it on his site.

 

So the Bills are running the ball 7.3% more than last year, a HUGE difference and a difference of -23 in the pass index, another huge difference...

 

There is virtually no argument that holds water regarding the Bills not running enough. Now running at the right time? That I will likely concede. Why our running game disappears in the red zone, especially when Spiller scored multiple TDs earlier in the year running the ball in the redzone is beyond me...

 

[BisonMan]

There is a link in a previous reply that takes into account the score of the game when teams run and pass the ball and bases how pass happy teams are on it.

 

Last year the Bills passed on 60.8% of their plays and scored a +1 on his pass index. This year the Bills only throw on 53.5% of their plays and score a -22 on his pass index...4th lowest in the NFL and actually will end up on a top 50 or top 100 list of least pass happy teams in NFL history according to his score...again this is all standardized for each team bases on the playcalls and the average score of the game. He goes into a pretty thorough explanation of it on his site.

 

So the Bills are running the ball 7.3% more than last year, a HUGE difference and a difference of -23 in the pass index, another huge difference...

 

There is virtually no argument that holds water regarding the Bills not running enough. Now running at the right time? That I will likely concede. Why our running game disappears in the red zone, especially when Spiller scored multiple TDs earlier in the year running the ball in the redzone is beyond me...

:thumbsup: