Picks 7 through 10 a crap shoot just look at 2006-2011

[shoretalk]

After reading the insightful commentary on this board, I decided to look at the facts of all the players selected as picks 7-10 from 2006 through 2011 to see how successful they all were. Now, I did not have time to see what Kiper and the other experts thought about all these guys but there are very few bonafide superstars (I did not bother to put Peterson's stats in because we all know what he has done.).

 

Take a look and remember back when you may have been ranting about our picks ... maybe you were dreaming about one of these guys playing at OBD! And, I would love to read how the experts lined these guys up if anyone has time to do that.

 

The statistics listed initially are career statistics.

 

 

2006 DRAFT

7- Michael Huff SS Raiders – 324 tackles, 5.5 sacks and 9 interceptions. 2011 started 11 out of 12 games with Raiders with 32 tackles and 2 interceptions.

8 – BILLS PICK DONTE WHITNER – 2011 with Niners started 15 out of 15 games played with 49 tackles and 2 interceptions.

9 – Ernie Sims LB Lions – 361 tackles, 4.5 sacks and 1 interception. 2011 started 4 out of 13 games with COLTS 32 tackles.

10 – Matt Leinart QB Cardinals – 350 completions in 608 attempts 6.5 yards per pass. 15 touchdowns, 20 interceptions and 29 sacks. 2011 with Texans 2 games played 1 started 10 out of 14 with a 4.4 yard per pass average. 1 touchdown with 0 sacks or interceptions.

 

2007 DRAFT

 

7 – Adrian Peterson RB Minnesota - SUPERSTAR

8- Jamaal Anderson DE Atlanta – 95 careeer tackles with 7.5 sacks started one game in 2011 with Colts

9 – Ted Ginn Jr WR Miami – 159 career receptions 12.9 per catch 6 touchdowns. Started 3 games for Niners in 2011 kick return 23.2 yards per return with 3 touchdowns punt return 11.2 yards with 3 touchdowns

10 – Amobi Okoye DT Houston – 109 tackles over 4 years with 15 sacks; started one game in 2011 with Bears

BILLS PICK with #12 Lynch

 

2008 DRAFT

7- Sedrick Ellis DT New Orleans – 52 career tackles with 12.5 sacks; started 15 games with Saints in 2011

8 – Derrick Harvey DE Jaguars – 92 career tackles with 5 sacks; played in 5 games in 2011 with Denver and did not start any. Now with Bengals

9 – Keith Rivers LB Bengals – 121 career tackles with 2 sacks and 2 interceptions; started 13 games with Bengals in 2011

10 – Jerod Mayo LB Patriots – 342 career tackles with 4.5 sacks and 2 interceptions; started 13 games with Patriots in 2011

BILLS PICK with #11 McKelvin

 

2009 DRAFT

 

7 – Darrius Heyward-Bey WR Raiders – 99 career receptions (*2011 – 64 receptions (21 in last 3 games) with 15.2 per catch) 14.8 per catch with 16 career touchdowns. Started 14 games with Raiders in 2011

8 – Eugene Monroe OT Jaguars – 42 starts in 45 games player (14 starts in 15 games in 2011 with Jag’s)

9 – BJ Raji NT Packers – 62 total tackles with 10.5 sacks. After only 1 start in his rookie season, he has started all 16 games in each of 2010 and 2011.

10 – Michael Crabtree WR Niners – 175 receptions 2240 total yards 12.8 per reception with 12 touchdowns. Started 14 of 15 games played in 2011 with 874 total reception yards.

BILLS PICK with #11 Maybin

2010 DRAFT

7 – Joe Haden CB Browns – 110 tackles, 2 sacks and 6 interceptions. Started 15 out of 15 games with Browns in 2011 with 0 interceptions, 53 tackles and 1 sack.

8 – Rolando McClain LB Raiders – 136 tackles 5.5 sacks with 1 interception. Started 14 of 15 games in 2011 with Raiders with 77 tackles and 5 sacks (1 safety).

9 - BILLS PICK with SPILLER

10 – Tyson Alualu DT Jaguars – 50 tackles with 6 sacks. Started 16 out of 16 games in 2011 with Jags and had 21 tackles with 2.5 sacks.

 

2011 DRAFT

7 – Julio Jones WR Atlanta – Started 13 of 13 games with 54 receptions and a 17.8 per catch gain (total yards 959) and 8 touchdowns

8 – Jake Locker QB Tennessee – Played in 5 games with 34 completions in 66 attempts and per pass average of 8.2 yards with 4 touchdowns and sacked 5 times. 0 interceptions.

9 – Tyron Smith OT Dallas – Started all 16 games

10 – Blaine Gabbert QB Jaguars – Started 14 of 15 games played. 210 completions out of 413 attempts with per pass average of 5.4 yards. 12 touchdowns with 11 interceptions. Sacked 40 times.

BILLS PICK with #3 DAREUS

Edited April 7, 2012 by shoretalk

[dollars 2 donuts]

 

Man, that is a lot work you put in and is kind of interesting.

 

Thanks. I normally would be more worried, but I do trust CHIX.

[jr1]

Great research

[shoretalk]

 

Man, that is a lot work you put in and is kind of interesting.

 

Thanks. I normally would be more worried, but I do trust CHIX.

Actually I trust them too ... am feeling better about the Bills than I have in years (My VA based brother and I (NJ here) bought our season tickets a couple of weeks ago.

 

GO BILLS!

[ganesh]

There are only 5-6 Blue Chip players in the top of a given draft. 7 through 20, most of the players are inter-changeable and get drafted based on needs, fancies of a team.

[Bud Adams]

Gabbert was sacked 40 times???

[Billsrhody]

Very nice read, thanks for putting the time in. While it does seem that there are a lot of busts in that group, there is also some really good talent to be had. Interesting to look at WR and OT, the two positions we're most likely to go for with that pick.

 

WR

Ginn: probably a bust for how high he was drafted, but still a good role player

Heyward-Bay: looked like a bust after his first 2 seasons, but seemed to really come into his own last year

Crabtree: solid production for a player without a good QB for his first 3 years

Jones: seems to be a rising star and big time playmaker in the league

 

OT

Monroe: solid starter for the jags, seems consistant and durable

Smith: Came right in and made a difference for the Cowboys

 

I'm pretty optimistic after seeing the players drafted at our current positions of need.

[Mark80]

After reading the insightful commentary on this board, I decided to look at the facts of all the players selected in rounds 7-10 from 2006 through 2011 to see how successful they all were. Now, I did not have time to see what Kiper and the other experts thought about all these guys but there are very few bonafide superstars (I did not bother to put Peterson's stats in because we all know what he has done.).

 

Take a look and remember back when you may have been ranting about our picks ... maybe you were dreaming about one of these guys playing at OBD! And, I would love to read how the experts lined these guys up if anyone has time to do that.

 

The statistics listed initially are career statistics.

 

 

2006 DRAFT

7- Michael Huff SS Raiders – 324 tackles, 5.5 sacks and 9 interceptions. 2011 started 11 out of 12 games with Raiders with 32 tackles and 2 interceptions.

8 – BILLS PICK DONTE WHITNER – 2011 with Niners started 15 out of 15 games played with 49 tackles and 2 interceptions.

9 – Ernie Sims LB Lions – 361 tackles, 4.5 sacks and 1 interception. 2011 started 4 out of 13 games with COLTS 32 tackles.

10 – Matt Leinart QB Cardinals – 350 completions in 608 attempts 6.5 yards per pass. 15 touchdowns, 20 interceptions and 29 sacks. 2011 with Texans 2 games played 1 started 10 out of 14 with a 4.4 yard per pass average. 1 touchdown with 0 sacks or interceptions.

 

2007 DRAFT

 

7 – Adrian Peterson RB Minnesota - SUPERSTAR

8- Jamaal Anderson DE Atlanta – 95 careeer tackles with 7.5 sacks started one game in 2011 with Colts

9 – Ted Ginn Jr WR Miami – 159 career receptions 12.9 per catch 6 touchdowns. Started 3 games for Niners in 2011 kick return 23.2 yards per return with 3 touchdowns punt return 11.2 yards with 3 touchdowns

10 – Amobi Okoye DT Houston – 109 tackles over 4 years with 15 sacks; started one game in 2011 with Bears

BILLS PICK with #12 Lynch

 

2008 DRAFT

7- Sedrick Ellis DT New Orleans – 52 career tackles with 12.5 sacks; started 15 games with Saints in 2011

8 – Derrick Harvey DE Jaguars – 92 career tackles with 5 sacks; played in 5 games in 2011 with Denver and did not start any. Now with Bengals

9 – Keith Rivers LB Bengals – 121 career tackles with 2 sacks and 2 interceptions; started 13 games with Bengals in 2011

10 – Jerod Mayo LB Patriots – 342 career tackles with 4.5 sacks and 2 interceptions; started 13 games with Patriots in 2011

BILLS PICK with #11 McKelvin

 

2009 DRAFT

 

7 – Darrius Heyward-Bey WR Raiders – 99 career receptions (*2011 – 64 receptions (21 in last 3 games) with 15.2 per catch) 14.8 per catch with 16 career touchdowns. Started 14 games with Raiders in 2011

8 – Eugene Monroe OT Jaguars – 42 starts in 45 games player (14 starts in 15 games in 2011 with Jag’s)

9 – BJ Raji NT Packers – 62 total tackles with 10.5 sacks. After only 1 start in his rookie season, he has started all 16 games in each of 2010 and 2011.

10 – Michael Crabtree WR Niners – 175 receptions 2240 total yards 12.8 per reception with 12 touchdowns. Started 14 of 15 games played in 2011 with 874 total reception yards.

BILLS PICK with #11 Maybin

2010 DRAFT

7 – Joe Haden CB Browns – 110 tackles, 2 sacks and 6 interceptions. Started 15 out of 15 games with Browns in 2011 with 0 interceptions, 53 tackles and 1 sack.

8 – Rolando McClain LB Raiders – 136 tackles 5.5 sacks with 1 interception. Started 14 of 15 games in 2011 with Raiders with 77 tackles and 5 sacks (1 safety).

9 - BILLS PICK with SPILLER

10 – Tyson Alualu DT Jaguars – 50 tackles with 6 sacks. Started 16 out of 16 games in 2011 with Jags and had 21 tackles with 2.5 sacks.

 

2011 DRAFT

7 – Julio Jones WR Atlanta – Started 13 of 13 games with 54 receptions and a 17.8 per catch gain (total yards 959) and 8 touchdowns

8 – Jake Locker QB Tennessee – Played in 5 games with 34 completions in 66 attempts and per pass average of 8.2 yards with 4 touchdowns and sacked 5 times. 0 interceptions.

9 – Tyron Smith OT Dallas – Started all 16 games

10 – Blaine Gabbert QB Jaguars – Started 14 of 15 games played. 210 completions out of 413 attempts with per pass average of 5.4 yards. 12 touchdowns with 11 interceptions. Sacked 40 times.

BILLS PICK with #3 DAREUS

 

Couldn't you really say that about just about any pick? I mean, in the top 6 you have players like Vince Young, Reggie Bush, A.J. Hawk, Jemarcus Russel, Gaines Adams, Levi Brown, Glenn Dorsey, Vernon Gholston, Jason Smith, Tyson Jackson, Aaron Curry, etc...none of which ever panned out as expected in my opinion. A lot of busts and a lot of pretty much average players.

Edited April 6, 2012 by Mark80

[turftoe]

Jaguars picked in that group 4 yrs in a row. The Bills have been above and below them but no higher than 14 in the past decade+. Sad, really sad.

There seem to be about 6-7 blue chips this year. I think Jacksonville goes with a DE, maybe Ingram or Coples. Miami probably goes Tannehill if he is there, or maybe DE. Carolina looks like they need a DT, so I would say either Poe or Cox. At 10, I'm not thrilled with the choices. If Tannehill or Richardson fall to 10 there may be some teams interested in trading up. I could see that happening this year

[Never NEVER Give-up]

Generally speaking, approximately 50% of 1st round selections are marginal or busts. If they find a way to identify football intelligence, desire, drive and heart, they'd never miss on a pick. The problem is they project the circumstance of the draft pick onto themselves and not the person selected. What I mean is they look at a prospect, say to themselves we're gonna give this guy all this money, we'll coach him up and with all that money he'll want to go thru a wall for us - so it'll all work out.

 

But all those 1st round picks prove otherwise.

[JPS]

I guess that's why you sign your own proven performers.

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

As others have said it all looks like a crap shoot. Seems your best bet in this range is OT, or D front 7. WR is feast or famine, and at qb you'll be looking at 3rd or 4th best prospect.

 

As I have said I hope to see the bills get the best prospect at a position, be it OT, DT, DE, ILB, OLB, CB or WR...

[Hapless Bills Fan]

After reading the insightful commentary on this board, I decided to look at the facts of all the players selected in rounds 7-10 from 2006 through 2011 to see how successful they all were. Now, I did not have time to see what Kiper and the other experts thought about all these guys but there are very few bonafide superstars (I did not bother to put Peterson's stats in because we all know what he has done.).

 

Take a look and remember back when you may have been ranting about our picks ... maybe you were dreaming about one of these guys playing at OBD! And, I would love to read how the experts lined these guys up if anyone has time to do that.

 

The statistics listed initially are career statistics.

 

Nice work, thanks!

[KD in CA]

A lot more 'crap' than 'shoot' on that list. This is why I always hate drafting guys with "upside" early in the draft. If you don't think a guy is ready to step on the field on Sunday you have no business picking him at #10.

 

 

[Lurker]

What this tells me is that people shouldn't get hung up on taking the "10th rated guy" (as if this was written on tablets brought down from Mount Sinai) at the 10th pick as, in actuality, the 7th through 20th rated guys are interchangable from a "value" perspective.

 

The focus should be on who can play/contribute/fit the scheme most effectively, rather than maximizing "draft value," which is media-driven (ESPN/Kiper) concept....

[Astrobot]

Great research and good point about "proven performance". At #10, which of these can you say that about? Because I think this might be our list of choices at #10.

 

Tier I

Luke Kuechly -158 tackles as an outside linebacker, plays inside or outside, 16 tackle avg.per game in career

David DeCastro -extremely polished, smart, quick technician, best since Steve Hutchinson

 

Tier II

Stephon Gilmore -one of the 3 top CB's in the draft

Melvin Ingram -scheme-versatile OLB/DE

Riley Reiff -one of the top 3 tackles but likely not a franchise LT

Michael Brockers -3-4 guy, PFW: "big, strong, instinctive, versatile raw talent" (visted Pats yesterday)

Courtney Upshaw -3-4 guy but could be 4-3 edge setter

[Santana]

I can't tell you how refreshing it is to be able to read something that has some substance to it. I think I can speak on behalf of the majority of the members here and say THANK YOU!!! great post, I definitely agree with you on this being a total crap shoot. I picked 12 players out of those drafts who I think are pretty good to good players right now. 6-10 are usually the toughest picks in the draft.

[Ennjay]

I can't tell you how refreshing it is to be able to read something that has some substance to it. I think I can speak on behalf of the majority of the members here and say THANK YOU!!!

 

 

+1

[John from Riverside]

Great research and good point about "proven performance". At #10, which of these can you say that about? Because I think this might be our list of choices at #10.

 

Tier I

Luke Kuechly -158 tackles as an outside linebacker, plays inside or outside, 16 tackle avg.per game in career

David DeCastro -extremely polished, smart, quick technician, best since Steve Hutchinson

 

Tier II

Stephon Gilmore -one of the 3 top CB's in the draft

Melvin Ingram -scheme-versatile OLB/DE

Riley Reiff -one of the top 3 tackles but likely not a franchise LT

Michael Brockers -3-4 guy, PFW: "big, strong, instinctive, versatile raw talent" (visted Pats yesterday)

Courtney Upshaw -3-4 guy but could be 4-3 edge setter

 

 

Geez when you put it that way maybe David DeCastro is the right pick......

 

My reasoning

 

- Lets just say that Hairston is your LT this year.....but we have contracts coming up on Wood and Levitre.....Wood has had injury issues every year.

- You know that Levitre can play LT

- So Levitre then becomes your BACKUP LT and starter at LG.....while DeCastro sits behind Levitre, Wood, and Urbik....but you are hedgeing your bets inside.

 

In essence you have accomplished what you set out to do.....create depth at the LT spot while taking what is probably a blue chipper at guard

 

 

I dont know man.....I absolutely dont know.

[shoretalk]

Couldn't you really say that about just about any pick? I mean, in the top 6 you have players like Vince Young, Reggie Bush, A.J. Hawk, Jemarcus Russel, Gaines Adams, Levi Brown, Glenn Dorsey, Vernon Gholston, Jason Smith, Tyson Jackson, Aaron Curry, etc...none of which ever panned out as expected in my opinion. A lot of busts and a lot of pretty much average players.

Of course you can!

 

What I was trying to do for all of us was rather than use conjecture or bad memories to actually look at the last several years' drafts to see who was drafted by teams other than the Bills and how they worked out.

 

At no time was I trying to say that this was an exclusive element of the draft for complete failures or for hidden superstars.

 

Now, what I would love to see is someone else digging back into Kiper's records to see how he did with these drafts because so many people hang on their every word or even invest their hard earned monies into their publications.

 

It was reassuring to see that linemen and wide receivers when allowed to develop can become solid starters (as noted earlier in responses to my post).