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Football outsiders assessment of Bills needs


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Buffalo Bills: Defensive end

The flirtation with the 3-4 defense for Buffalo lasted barely a year, just long enough to get defensive coordinator George Edwards fired, and now the team will turn to new hire Dave Wannstadt to undo the experiment and bring back a base 4-3. The move makes perfect sense, as it allows the Bills to line up their two best players, Kyle Williams and Marcell Dareus, side-by-side. That should give them the freedom to penetrate and make plays rather than requiring them to hold their ground and soak up blockers as they would in a 3-4. It's a move that should help stiffen up the interior run defense, which gave up 4.52 yards per carry on runs between the guards last year. It probably won't do much to generate more pass rush, however, as it's unreasonable to ask for Dareus to improve much upon his rookie total of 5.5 sacks.

 

An elite pass-rushing defensive end would be a key addition for Buffalo. The Bills have youngsters like Alex Carrington and veterans such as Chris Kelsay and Dwan Edwards, but none of them can be expected to suddenly morph into a double-digit sack threat. There is little doubt that the team will make every effort to address the position, but it is unlikely to land a premiere talent like Mario Williams in free agency, so improvement may have to come from the draft.

 

The other major priority is to re-sign Steve Johnson, who established himself as a legitimate No. 1 receiver in his first year as a starter. The team will want to add another receiver regardless, as neither David Nelson nor Donald Jones showed much playmaking ability, but receiver would turn into a gaping hole should Johnson decide to skip town.

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Buffalo Bills: Defensive end

The flirtation with the 3-4 defense for Buffalo lasted barely a year, just long enough to get defensive coordinator George Edwards fired, and now the team will turn to new hire Dave Wannstadt to undo the experiment and bring back a base 4-3. The move makes perfect sense, as it allows the Bills to line up their two best players, Kyle Williams and Marcell Dareus, side-by-side. That should give them the freedom to penetrate and make plays rather than requiring them to hold their ground and soak up blockers as they would in a 3-4. It's a move that should help stiffen up the interior run defense, which gave up 4.52 yards per carry on runs between the guards last year. It probably won't do much to generate more pass rush, however, as it's unreasonable to ask for Dareus to improve much upon his rookie total of 5.5 sacks.

 

An elite pass-rushing defensive end would be a key addition for Buffalo. The Bills have youngsters like Alex Carrington and veterans such as Chris Kelsay and Dwan Edwards, but none of them can be expected to suddenly morph into a double-digit sack threat. There is little doubt that the team will make every effort to address the position, but it is unlikely to land a premiere talent like Mario Williams in free agency, so improvement may have to come from the draft.

 

The other major priority is to re-sign Steve Johnson, who established himself as a legitimate No. 1 receiver in his first year as a starter. The team will want to add another receiver regardless, as neither David Nelson nor Donald Jones showed much playmaking ability, but receiver would turn into a gaping hole should Johnson decide to skip town.

 

Yeh, maybe that's why they're the 'Outsiders'.

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If Williams is healthy and Dareus improves on his stellar rookie season, then the middle of the line will be great. These two guys also will be able to get in QB's faces from up the gut. That is big...and the number one way to beat the best QB in our division.

 

Now add the pass rusher from the edge, and suddenly the entire D looks a lot better. If you can stop the run and get to the qb, you got a winning D. Corners are important... but no where near as important as Dline.

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other than nit picking the length of time we played the 3-4 and calling Wanny a new hire (which technically he is at the DC position), what can you disagree with? This assessment seems to be spot on.

 

Um Stevie Johnson started two years in a row.

David Nelson has playmaking ability.

Wanny isn't a new hire.

 

They switched to the 3-4 two seasons ago.

 

Yeah besides that spot on.

Edited by Why So Serious?
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Um Stevie Johnson started two years in a row.

David Nelson has playmaking ability.

Wanny isn't a new hire.

 

They switched to the 4-3 two years ago.

 

Yeah besides that spot on.

Nelson's playmaking ability is strictly limited to schemes designed to create a mismatch. When the Bills had a full compliment on offense, the first part of the season, Nelson was the 4 th receiver, often lined up in a tight end or H-back position, or split out slightly from tackle, but generally the 4th WR on the field. In this situation, Nelson was able to exploit mismatches and confusion in coverage very effectively. The bills were rolling on offense then, and Nelson was a star. Once the injuries began to pile up (Parrish, Jones, LT, Woods, Jackson) the Bills suddenly had very limited offensive threats, and much poorer OL play. Nelson was expected to play more of an every down role in Gailey''s offense as a slot receiver, but with other offensive threats increasingly non-existent, and the OL struggling, Nelson became a non-factor over the second half of the season. I love the guy, but he is no "threat" on his own. He can, and has been, very effective as an overload to the defense, but will not be productive as a starter at WR in any of the top 3 slots. I think this was pretty well proven last year.

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Nelson's playmaking ability is strictly limited to schemes designed to create a mismatch. When the Bills had a full compliment on offense, the first part of the season, Nelson was the 4 th receiver, often lined up in a tight end or H-back position, or split out slightly from tackle, but generally the 4th WR on the field. In this situation, Nelson was able to exploit mismatches and confusion in coverage very effectively. The bills were rolling on offense then, and Nelson was a star. Once the injuries began to pile up (Parrish, Jones, LT, Woods, Jackson) the Bills suddenly had very limited offensive threats, and much poorer OL play. Nelson was expected to play more of an every down role in Gailey''s offense as a slot receiver, but with other offensive threats increasingly non-existent, and the OL struggling, Nelson became a non-factor over the second half of the season. I love the guy, but he is no "threat" on his own. He can, and has been, very effective as an overload to the defense, but will not be productive as a starter at WR in any of the top 3 slots. I think this was pretty well proven last year.

 

I disagree - a little. I think Nelson can be a good+ #3 WR - IF the OL is in tact and there is a legitimate #1 and #2 on the field also. Donald Jones and Roscoe Parrish are not #2

WRs. When TE Chandler was hurt along with several OL, then no Nelson wasn't a dominant get-open-on-his-own WR (I agree). However, with Johnson or another #1 WR and

and at least a good starting #2, a healthy decent TE and a healthy OL, I think Nelson is a good #3 WR.

Edited by OldTimer1960
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other than nit picking the length of time we played the 3-4 and calling Wanny a new hire (which technically he is at the DC position), what can you disagree with? This assessment seems to be spot on.

I think Alex Carrington could turn out to be a pretty good player at DE. He is a pretty big boy 6-5 300+lbs. He put on some weight thinking it would help with the 34. If he lost some weight @ 24yrs old he could turn out to be a pretty good DE in the 43, or are they going to try and rotate him in the middle? I think he could turn in to a pretty good player. Obviously we have tried the 34 for 2 years now, Wanny has been on staff for 2 yrs, I think Jones and Nelson are pretty good for first year and being undrafted. The only thing he got right was that KW, & MD are pretty good!

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Lasted barely a year? They were implementing it over two seasons. They obviously stepped back once they shifted more to 4-3 looks in mid-season, but 3-4 came in with Gailey. These guys are definitely off the mark.

We had a 34 coach but how long were we truly commited? If we totaled 16 games that had a majority 34 I'd be surprised.

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Why is it unreasonable to expect a rookie DE to improve from 5.5 sacks per game? That's ok, but for starting all 16 games it's not exactly "Bruce Smith numbers"

 

I don't see your point. They were alluding to the notion that if switched inside in the 4-3, topping 5.5 sacks will be difficult. It would. And as for "Bruce Smith numbers," totally different players.

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In truth that's all 98% players playmaking ability is limited to. Matchups. Outside the Barry Sanders of the world who are very rare.

Word.

 

Nelson has Size, Shiftiness, and strength. He can and does make plays. You can't cover him well with a CB or a LB. He has good hands.

He creates mismatches and then takes advantages of them.

 

Either way the Outsiders are waaaaaaayyyy outside on this one.

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I don't see your point. They were alluding to the notion that if switched inside in the 4-3, topping 5.5 sacks will be difficult. It would. And as for "Bruce Smith numbers," totally different players.

For the record, Bruce had 6.5 sacks his rookie year. So technically Marcell had "Bruce Smith numbers", rookie for rookie. Just sayin'.

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