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The Official RGIII thread


rayray808

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Having a great QB for a decade is the easiest way to success on the field and off.

 

The Colts have been going to the playoffs for years with a roster that has been one of the 5-10 worst in the league. The Pats defense has been lousy for several years, yet they are always there because of Brady.

 

It's that simple, really.

 

Off the field.....Manning basically got a stadium built in a town that previously was not that into the Colts.

 

The concept behind owning a football team is to convince the locals to root for you. You do that with hope. Great QB's bring that. That's how you start maximizing your earnings potential and maximizing the value of your franchise.

 

The NFL is not MLB, but look at the deal CA Angels made with Albert Pujols. They signed him to a huge contract and a day later signed a new TV deal that dwarfed the Pujols contract.

 

The NFL shares tv revenue, but the point is that there is a lot of outside earning potential being wasted in Buffalo by the lack of a direction, by a lack of a great QB to raise fans hopes and create new fan interest.

Just to add to your very solid post: the Bills have had trouble signing top tier free agents. If you were a highly touted free agency, and if you cared about winning in addition to your paycheck, and if you had comparable offers from the Packers and the Bills, which team would you choose? The last time the Bills had top tier QB play was the first eight games of 2002. They were able to parlay those eight games of excellent quarterback play into the free agent signing of Takeo Spikes. How many Spikes-like free agents have the Bills signed since then? How much top tier quarterback play have they received since then?

 

But the above paragraph is a merely secondary reason why the Bills should obtain a franchise quarterback in the upcoming draft if they possibly can. The Bills should start by deciding to do whatever it takes to win the Super Bowl. All their decisions should flow from that starting premise.

 

Nine of the last ten Super Bowl winners have had a franchise quarterback. The tenth team was the Bucs of 2002, which had an elite defense and a QB who had a Pro Bowl year that year in the form of Brad Johnson. If you decide to do whatever it takes to win the Super Bowl, then you also have to do whatever it takes to get a franchise quarterback. Whatever it takes! Up to and including trading away the house for one player.

 

Such a trade is not comparable to the Ricky Williams trade, because the impact of an elite running back is not comparable to the impact of an elite quarterback. Had Mike Ditka traded away all those picks and received Peyton Manning in return, he would look like an absolute genius. Even if a GM had paid double the Ricky Williams price, he would still have looked smart--as long as he'd received Peyton Manning in return!

 

The Patriots defense just finished allowing the most passing yards in NFL history, and yet they are going to the playoffs. They have two of the three pieces in place needed to win the Super Bowl. (The three pieces being a franchise quarterback, a good offensive supporting cast, and a good defense.) Without even a semblance of that third piece they probably won't win the Super Bowl. But they are a team to be reckoned with this year. And if they put together a credible defense for next year, and if their offense stays on track, they'll be a very legitimate threat to win next year's Super Bowl.

 

Of the three above-mentioned pieces, most can be broken down into smaller and more manageable components. A weakness in one area can be compensated for by strength elsewhere. For example, if your RDE is a good but not spectacular pass rusher, you can compensate by adding good pass rushers at OLB. If your #1 WR is competent but not outstanding, you can compensate by adding a good pass catching TE, a good #2 WR, or a RB who catches passes out of the backfield. The franchise QB piece is unique in that it must be added all in one lump, and also unique in that you cannot settle for anything less than elite. Merely being above average at that position is almost certain to exclude you from hoisting a Super Bowl trophy. There is no other position about which that can be said.

 

There is a certain amount of randomness in talent acquisition. When the Bills first signed Fred Jackson as an UDFA, neither they nor anyone else realized they were getting one of the finest running backs in the NFL. More generally, teams will tend to look at large numbers of lower round draft picks and UDFAs each year, hoping that one or two of them will turn out to be something special. This kind of randomness is acceptable at almost every position, because strength at one position can be used to compensate for an average player at another. But this randomness is not acceptable at quarterback, because the Bills must have an elite quarterback to give themselves a realistic chance of winning the Super Bowl.

 

All of this means that if the Bill have the chance to add an elite quarterback in this upcoming draft, they should take it. They should pay whatever price is required, and pay it with a smile.

Edited by Edwards' Arm
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trade up with Jacksonville and draft Robert Griffin III...

 

next year we have a double headed MONSTER of Freddy and CJ running the ball. Healthy wide receivers, and big Tight End's to throw under...

 

most importantly, with RG3 our o-line will have less pressure as he can manipulate the pocket almost every play...

 

defenses will have a field day trying to guard the multiple options we can run every down (opens up Brad Smith even more)...

 

_________

 

Kyle Williams back, and Dareus with experience our d-line is back in bizz...

 

Aaron Williams with experience and our secondary creates more turnovers (like we saw in the beginning of the year)

 

_________

 

we had a great draft last year and can afford to trade up, not to mention the Lynch trade pick we can move...

 

DO IT BILLS, DO IT!

 

 

Ah to be young and dream big. Unfortunately Nix is old and values every draft pick more than gold. No way he even gives up one nuget to move up in the first round.

 

Point 2. Forget QB. If it isn't LT the pick will be defense. LB, DE DT CB...oh did I say LB

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Just to add to your very solid post: the Bills have had trouble signing top tier free agents. If you were a highly touted free agency, and if you cared about winning in addition to your paycheck, and if you had comparable offers from the Packers and the Bills, which team would you choose? The last time the Bills had top tier QB play was the first eight games of 2002. They were able to parlay those eight games of excellent quarterback play into the free agent signing of Takeo Spikes. How many Spikes-like free agents have the Bills signed since then? How much top tier quarterback play have they received since then?

 

But the above paragraph is a merely secondary reason why the Bills should obtain a franchise quarterback in the upcoming draft if they possibly can. The Bills should start by deciding to do whatever it takes to win the Super Bowl. All their decisions should flow from that starting premise.

 

Nine of the last ten Super Bowl winners have had a franchise quarterback. The tenth team was the Bucs of 2002, which had an elite defense and a QB who had a Pro Bowl year that year in the form of Brad Johnson. If you decide to do whatever it takes to win the Super Bowl, then you also have to do whatever it takes to get a franchise quarterback. Whatever it takes! Up to and including trading away the house for one player.

 

Such a trade is not comparable to the Ricky Williams trade, because the impact of an elite running back is not comparable to the impact of an elite quarterback. Had Mike Ditka traded away all those picks and received Peyton Manning in return, he would look like an absolute genius. Even if a GM had paid double the Ricky Williams price, he would still have looked smart--as long as he'd received Peyton Manning in return!

 

The Patriots defense just finished allowing the most passing yards in NFL history, and yet they are going to the playoffs. They have two of the three pieces in place needed to win the Super Bowl. (The three pieces being a franchise quarterback, a good offensive supporting cast, and a good defense.) Without even a semblance of that third piece they probably won't win the Super Bowl. But they are a team to be reckoned with this year. And if they put together a credible defense for next year, and if their offense stays on track, they'll be a very legitimate threat to win next year's Super Bowl.

 

Of the three above-mentioned pieces, most can be broken down into smaller and more manageable components. A weakness in one area can be compensated for by strength elsewhere. For example, if your RDE is a good but not spectacular pass rusher, you can compensate by adding good pass rushers at OLB. If your #1 WR is competent but not outstanding, you can compensate by adding a good pass catching TE, a good #2 WR, or a RB who catches passes out of the backfield. The franchise QB piece is unique in that it must be added all in one lump, and also unique in that you cannot settle for anything less than elite. Merely being above average at that position is almost certain to exclude you from hoisting a Super Bowl trophy. There is no other position about which that can be said. None.

 

All of this means that if the Bill have the chance to add an elite quarterback in this upcoming draft, they should take it. And they should pay whatever price is required, and pay it with a smile.

 

I agree completely with everything you've just said. I know people want to fill needs but it's a futile process when you don't have a QB.

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I'd trade the first three picks in this years draft and the first two in next years, totally worth it. Don't like the talent in this draft to begin, might as well go for broke.

 

Will never happen though.

I agree, first it would never happen, but the fact that he just seems to have it. Plus his head appears to be screwed on right.

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Maybe GB's Defense is statistically worse than ours, but they haven't given up as many points, which lose games. We do need a great QB, but we have to stop the point hemorrhaging first. Fitz scored 21 points on the Pats in the first quarter, for goodness sake. If we have ANY kind of defense, that holds pretty well and we are not taking chances that result in the picks later on. The game is played on both sides of the ball and when you get to the playoffs, defense still matters (a lot). The Pats will play ONE playoff game this year.

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Pass rushers are **** in this class, Pats smashed us not because of their pass rush, but because of their all world QB.

 

Our lack of a pass rush made it easy for him to be all world.

 

Sry bro. We've been filling needs for years. We need a stud @ QB. Just my opinion. Happy New year everyone

And we still have needs to fill. We're making up for 10 years of questionable personnel decisions.

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Maybe GB's Defense is statistically worse than ours, but they haven't given up as many points, which lose games. We do need a great QB, but we have to stop the point hemorrhaging first. Fitz scored 21 points on the Pats in the first quarter, for goodness sake. If we have ANY kind of defense, that holds pretty well and we are not taking chances that result in the picks later on. The game is played on both sides of the ball and when you get to the playoffs, defense still matters (a lot). The Pats will play ONE playoff game this year.

 

Your point about Fitzpatrick putting up points is moot. The Patriots have an even worse defense than the Bills. As Tom Jackson noted on ESPN last night, Ryan Fitzpatrick got that extension because he put up big numbers versus the Patriots and the Bills did not realize at the time that the Patriots were going to have the worst pass defense in NFL history(an hour later Green Bay surpassed them). As he put it, even poorly quarterbacked teams were putting up numbers versus the Pats.

 

As for having to stop giving up so many points first......the Patriots and the Packers are the top seeds in the NFL and they have the two worst pass defenses in NFL history. We all want to see the defense improve but face it, the rules are HEAVILY in favor of the offense.

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Ah to be young and dream big. Unfortunately Nix is old and values every draft pick more than gold. No way he even gives up one nuget to move up in the first round.

 

Point 2. Forget QB. If it isn't LT the pick will be defense. LB, DE DT CB...oh did I say LB

 

 

Unfortunately too many on this board have the same mindset.

 

"Oh the pretty draft pics....the draft pics...they fill holes...we can't wager these valuable hole fillers."

 

Here is a different spin - in 12 years, this team has meaningfully traded up twice (for Poz and McCargo). Neither instance was for a player that has the reward potential of a QB. We have drafted at the designated, pre-allocated spot easily 90% of the time.

 

What have those pre-allocated, status quo ante, draft selections gotten this team in terms of wins and losses?

 

In business, investments, and yes, even in sports, it's the risk takers who run the table. The yellow-bellied, intimidated, status quo bunch get walked on.

 

Risk takers lose plenty too, but generally they experience either significant lows or significant successes because of the strategies' boom/bust arrangement. Interesting thing is, though, that their successes are sustained, and their lows can be as short-lived as the next calculated risk.

 

Everyone else remains on this long-winded, protracted, sustained ebb or low-degree incline waiting for the right confluence of events to happen.

Edited by Juror#8
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trade up with Jacksonville and draft Robert Griffin III...

 

next year we have a double headed MONSTER of Freddy and CJ running the ball. Healthy wide receivers, and big Tight End's to throw under...

 

most importantly, with RG3 our o-line will have less pressure as he can manipulate the pocket almost every play...

 

defenses will have a field day trying to guard the multiple options we can run every down (opens up Brad Smith even more)...

 

_________

 

Kyle Williams back, and Dareus with experience our d-line is back in bizz...

 

Aaron Williams with experience and our secondary creates more turnovers (like we saw in the beginning of the year)

 

 

 

 

AMEN.......... He would bring excitement to our fan base, something this team has lacked since the Jim Kelly era. , You can draft defense in the later rounds or use free agency. He will definitely help by improving ticket sales and finally give the franchise a face at the most important position on the team. I just don't see how drafting a defense man can bring these attributes! Hit or miss on him you got to admit it would be very exciting!

we had a great draft last year and can afford to trade up, not to mention the Lynch trade pick we can move...

 

DO IT BILLS, DO IT!

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I don't trust the Bills drafting any pass rusher in the first round. We have a horrible track record. And even if the guy is a "can't miss", I wouldn't trust the current coaching staff to develop him properly.

 

I'm on board for a QB in the first round. Geez, for Fitz being all smart (Harvard, etc), he sure makes some very questionable decisions. He should know by now what throws he can and cannot make.

 

No offense, but if we can't trust the Bills to make a correct personnel decision on a pass rusher or to develop a pass rusher properly when that's an obvious huge gap on the team, aren't we kind of doomed? If we're kind of doomed, does it really matter if we have a better QB or not? And if we can't trust the Bills to make a correct personnel decision on a pass rusher what makes us thing they would make one on a QB?

 

Fitz puzzles me right now. He started out the game throwing 80% completions, >20 yds several times accurately, zipping the ball into tight quarters.

He ended the game like sh**, making crappy decisions, poor accuracy. Yesterday's game was Fitz's season in a microcosm.

 

The clique who say he's just not accurate, he just can't make throws, he lacks the physical tools, are clearly contradicted by some of his play. He does have that ability.

He's also horrible at times, missing open receivers and throwing picks all over the place. The obvious question is: what is the difference?

 

Does he lose it when he gets sacked a few times - maybe aggrevate an injury - but too much of a "tough guy" to say "hey I'm hurt, I cant make the throws" and come out?

Is it that the D just starts keying on pressuring the QB 'cuz they figure out Gailey won't run once the team gets the least bit behind?

Is it the receivers - losing Chandler and Stevie and throwing to Roosevelt, Hagan, and Martin, do they run routes differently than he expects and that throws him off?

Or is he just flakier than a good pie crust and streakier than a poorly washed window?

 

I still see pass rushers and some WR upgrades, possibly a huge NT if we're staying with 3-4, as the key needs. That's not 'cuz I think Fitz is an elite QB, just that until we fill in some huge holes elsewhere, I don't see the QB as the piece that makes "everything else fall in place".

 

Your point about Fitzpatrick putting up points is moot. The Patriots have an even worse defense than the Bills. As Tom Jackson noted on ESPN last night, Ryan Fitzpatrick got that extension because he put up big numbers versus the Patriots and the Bills did not realize at the time that the Patriots were going to have the worst pass defense in NFL history(an hour later Green Bay surpassed them). As he put it, even poorly quarterbacked teams were putting up numbers versus the Pats.

 

As for having to stop giving up so many points first......the Patriots and the Packers are the top seeds in the NFL and they have the two worst pass defenses in NFL history. We all want to see the defense improve but face it, the rules are HEAVILY in favor of the offense.

 

This year's playoffs are going to be very interesting. If the Superbowl is GB vs NE, I will consider your point to be proved and will place an order for crow.

If, on the other hand, the 49ers play the Ravens in the Superbowl (or beat NE in the Superbowl, I will suggest that your viewpoint may need to be re-examined.

Edited by Hopeful
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Your point about Fitzpatrick putting up points is moot. The Patriots have an even worse defense than the Bills. As Tom Jackson noted on ESPN last night, Ryan Fitzpatrick got that extension because he put up big numbers versus the Patriots and the Bills did not realize at the time that the Patriots were going to have the worst pass defense in NFL history(an hour later Green Bay surpassed them). As he put it, even poorly quarterbacked teams were putting up numbers versus the Pats.

 

As for having to stop giving up so many points first......the Patriots and the Packers are the top seeds in the NFL and they have the two worst pass defenses in NFL history. We all want to see the defense improve but face it, the rules are HEAVILY in favor of the offense.

Tom Jackson is completely wrong! Fitz put up big numbers the first half of the season NOT just against the Pats and the extension was NOT done until about a month after the Pats game. Nice try on analysis, but completely wrong.

 

Fitz did well the first half of the season until everyone went down. We have SOOOO many needs on this team that if you re-sign Stevie, get a decent number 2 and re-sign Chandler and Roscoe then you have the WR corps that Fitz had when he was AFC offensive player of the month and was doing well. He has played poorly a lot of the time but anybody would without a TE, w/o a legitimate WR. You realize many of Fitz's INTs this year and poor play was with the likes of Ruval Martin as your number one WR?

Draft a guy in the 2nd round but other than that go defense, defense, defense. You can win with Fitz if he has a decent group of guys which he did not for the last half of the season.

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I can't argue with your assessment, but I think it is a function of the overall situation of the game/season. I think Rob Johnson suffered from the same thing. They both

desperately wanted to win and they both decided that they needed to take big chances to make plays to keep their under-talented teams in games.

Not to stray too far off topic but I believe Fitz does care about winning. Clearly Fitz will throw the ball away early to avoid a sack.

 

I never had the same feeling about Rob Johnson who was sacked more often per pass attempt than any quarterback in NFL history by far. Johnson would take sacks and run out of bounds for a loss rather than throwing an incomplete pass… because he cared about his stats more than anything else (IMO).

 

what pick would we need to get to in landing RG3, and what would we have to give up?

 

I don't think we need to trade with the Rams at 2... maybe Vikings at 3? Browns at 5?

Even if the front office was on board with trading up to secure the quarterback this franchise needs, there will be very stiff competition for RG3 (assuming Luck to Indy).

 

Here's how I see it:

 

1) Indy will most likely take Luck.

2) St Louis is the pick which teams will try trading into to assure RG3.

3) Minnesota has Ponder and Joe Webb. They might have an interest in RG3 but IMO would pass. Regardless this pick only has value if the 2nd pick is not used on RG3.

4) Cleveland would take RG3 and are in excellent position to move up because of the value of their pick.

5) Tampa Bay because of Josh Freeman will probably stand pat. Their pick is not high enough to assure RG3.

6) Washington would love RG3 but needs to move up.

7) Jacksonville drafted Gabbert but the reason they're not in the sweepstakes is because there are teams drafting higher who can more easily trade up.

8) Carolina has Cam Newton. They'll stand pat.

9) Miami would love to move up. It'll be expensive.

10) Buffalo (see Miami).

 

Seattle and Kansas City are just two teams outside the top ten who might want to trade up into St. Louis' spot.

 

So the competition will be fierce and we've all seen how that usually works out for the Bills. I see the likelihood of the Bills trading up to St Louis' spot as being less than 1%.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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IMO, they would have to trade with the Rams for the second pick, because after the evaluation is done in the offseason, there are going to be plenty of people who think RG3 is better than Luck.

 

He has an absolute rifle for an arm and uncanny accuracy from any arm angle, off his back foot etc.. Just unlimited potential.

 

For that, it would take 1's this year and next, the two this year and probably Dareus and Aaron Williams. At least if I were the Rams it would take at least that.

 

The Rams drafted Sam Bradford in 2010 and he looked pretty good in his rookie season. This year, opinion seems split between those who feel he had no OL and no WR thus should not be blamed for his bottom-five in the NFL QB performance, and those who feel that he should have figured out how to throw more than 6 TD (all season) and fewer than 6 picks all season despite having no OL and no WR.

 

I was going somewhere with this....oh yeah. So the Rams pick at #2, and if their new coach agrees with the promise seen in Bradford when he was drafted #1 overall 2 yrs ago, they might be one of the few teams that we COULD work a deal with because they may feel they need extra picks more than they need RGIII. Thought: franchise Stevie and tout him to St Louis, heh heh

 

Alternatively, if the Rams want RGIII, maybe we could work a trade for Sam Bradford, except of course once a QB looks mediocre, it shows he's a mediocre QB no matter what is going on around him.

 

Alternatively, maybe a great QB drafted high isn't the only thing a team needs to build a winner? St Louisans do have the opportunity for a view on that point.

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Even if the front office was on board with trading up to secure the quarterback this franchise needs, there will be very stiff competition for RG3 (assuming Luck to Indy).

Here's how I see it:

 

1) Indy will most likely take Luck.

2) St Louis is the pick which teams will try trading into to assure RG3.

3) Minnesota has Ponder and Joe Webb. They might have an interest in RG3 but IMO would pass. Regardless this pick only has value if the 2nd pick is not used on RG3.

4) Cleveland would take RG3 and are in excellent position to move up because of the value of their pick.

5) Tampa Bay because of Josh Freeman will probably stand pat. Their pick is not high enough to assure RG3.

6) Washington would love RG3 but needs to move up.

7) Jacksonville drafted Gabbert but the reason they're not in the sweepstakes is because there are teams drafting higher who can more easily trade up.

8) Carolina has Cam Newton. They'll stand pat.

9) Miami would love to move up. It'll be expensive.

10) Buffalo (see Miami).

 

Seattle and Kansas City are just two teams outside the top ten who might want to trade up into St. Louis' spot.

So the competition will be fierce and we've all seen how that usually works out for the Bills. I see the likelihood of the Bills trading up to St Louis' spot as being less than 1%.

 

Interesting analysis. Ordinarily one would think that St Louis would NOT care about drafting a top QB as they spent the #1 pick of the draft on Sam Bradford in 2010 and he didn't look like a bust his rookie season - set a record for "most pass completions by a rookie" and won "NFL Rookie of the Year". Believe it or don't, the "B" word is being tossed around River City here after a 2011 season which put Bradford in the bottom 5 statistically and having thrown just 6 TD passes all season.

 

Depending upon the viewpoint of the new head coach St Louis might just use that #2 pick on RGIII themselves, and look to trade Bradford. Seattle and Minnesota are two teams that historically try to trade for their QBs and make treasure out of other guy's trash - what could they offer?

 

Do we really think TB would have no interest in RGIII? Freeman was significantly worse than Fitzpatrick this year in every statistical category but interceptions (he only had 22 instead of Fitz' 23), and we all know this season proves that Fitz simply falls too far short as an NFL starter for any team to win with him, and he should TUG (take up golf) full time.

 

Are we sure Indy, with as bad as the rest of their team looked and with Polian still at the helm, wouldn't like to take the extra picks and whatever else they could get for their #1 pick?

 

next year we have a double headed MONSTER of Freddy and CJ running the ball. Healthy wide receivers, and big Tight End's to throw under...

most importantly, with RG3 our o-line will have less pressure as he can manipulate the pocket almost every play...

defenses will have a field day trying to guard the multiple options we can run every down (opens up Brad Smith even more)...

 

RGIII question aside....how is this double headed MONSTER to be achieved with a HC/defacto OC and playcaller who underutilized FJ as a runner and didn't utilize CJ at all until FJ got hurt (then underutilized him)? If Gailey never used CJ and Freddie in the backfield together this year, what will persuade him to do so next year?

 

I love your enthusiasm, just wondering how you see this miraculous conversion in coaching and playcalling philosophy as occuring?

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I would do whatever it takes to get RG3. If it takes this yrs and next yrs 1 and a player (McKelvin or Roscoe maybe?)

 

The only way this would work if there is a pass rusher or LB that can step in and play right now that we can get in the second round.

 

But the Bills have man love for Fitz. So I think they will go D in the first. But they have to hit big like Dareus this yr on the next great pass rusher who can get you 10 sacks a yr. That will make the whole D better IMO.

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Depending upon the viewpoint of the new head coach St Louis might just use that #2 pick on RGIII themselves, and look to trade Bradford. Seattle and Minnesota are two teams that historically try to trade for their QBs and make treasure out of other guy's trash - what could they offer?

 

Do we really think TB would have no interest in RGIII? Freeman was significantly worse than Fitzpatrick this year in every statistical category but interceptions (he only had 22 instead of Fitz' 23), and we all know this season proves that Fitz simply falls too far short as an NFL starter for any team to win with him, and he should TUG (take up golf) full time.

 

Are we sure Indy, with as bad as the rest of their team looked and with Polian still at the helm, wouldn't like to take the extra picks and whatever else they could get for their #1 pick?

To address your 3 questions:

 

1) I'm guessing that ultimately Bradford will remain and the Rams will trade out of the pick to acquire more picks to improve the roster around him. This is only my opinion but of course I've considered the other option.

 

2) I'm sure Tampa Bay will consider RG3 but IMO between having Freeman AND having to move up 3 spots to draft him that they will stand pat.

 

3) I'm pretty sure (again gut feeling and nothing else) that Indy will draft a quarterback and that the quarterback will be Luck.

 

 

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