An Optimist's View of the Bills Collapse

[hondo in seattle]

The Bills collapse was driven by key injuries on both offense and defense. The short off-season didn't allow the Bills superior S&C coaches do their magic. Next year we won't have this problem.

 

The injuries have allowed a lot of second-stringers to get valuable playing time. Depth will be better next year because of it.

 

The collapse has dramatically improved our draft position and we'll be able to fill important needs now.

 

The Defense has played so poorly that Gailey will be forced to shake up the coaching staff. We'll have better coaches on that side of the ball next year.

[Doc]

Injuries were the major story, with Fitz' regression another piece of it (although I still keep hearing that he's been playing injured, but nothing has officially been said about it). Look at teams like the Colts and Bears, along with the Raiders, Chiefs, Chargers, and Jags. The problem though is keeping them healthy, which has been a recurring theme. And they need another play-making WR and pass rushers.

[jjmac]

They need another CB as well. I just don't see McGee returning.

[HeHateMe]

They were figured out before most of the injuries. The D has been terrible the entire year. They decided to go into the season with zero depth and the only way that can work is if you have little to no injuries to key guys... yea..

[KOKBILLS]

The Bills collapse was driven by key injuries on both offense and defense. The short off-season didn't allow the Bills superior S&C coaches do their magic. Next year we won't have this problem.

 

The injuries have allowed a lot of second-stringers to get valuable playing time. Depth will be better next year because of it.

 

The collapse has dramatically improved our draft position and we'll be able to fill important needs now.

 

The Defense has played so poorly that Gailey will be forced to shake up the coaching staff. We'll have better coaches on that side of the ball next year.

 

I wish I could agree...

 

But this post could have easily been written in 2007...And here we are again...In fact we seem to be worse off...I have no faith in this bunch until they prove otherwise...But I'll be hoping they catch a clue sometime soon nonetheless...

[Gray Beard]

All but the most fanatic Fitz supporters have to acknowledge that he is good and we like him for his guts and brains, but he is not the QB of the future. I think most posters on this forum have come to agreement on that issue. And agreement is a good thing, right?

[Mr. WEO]

How did the S and C magic work last season?

[sweatpantsjoe]

 

 

The injuries have allowed a lot of second-stringers to get valuable playing time. Depth will be better next year because of it.

 

 

 

If a player is bad, he's bad. More playing time is not going to help Spencer Johnson become a better OLB or Mario Haggan become a better WR. They're just bad. Sheppard and Williams could use more playing time. But they're expected to be starters for this franchise. The depth will still be bad.

[Doc]

They were figured out before most of the injuries. The D has been terrible the entire year. They decided to go into the season with zero depth and the only way that can work is if you have little to no injuries to key guys... yea..

Figured out before the injuries? They were 5-2 when the injuries started to take their toll. As for no depth, they had some depth, but like a lot of teams (namely the ones I mentioned), it only goes so far.

[Best Player Available]

They need another CB as well. I just don't see McGee returning.

Or hopefully McBrutal returning either.

 

All but the most fanatic Fitz supporters have to acknowledge that he is good and we like him for his guts and brains, but he is not the QB of the future. I think most posters on this forum have come to agreement on that issue. And agreement is a good thing, right?

Take it a step further and Fitz isn't the quarterback of the present.

[Maury Ballstein]

Or hopefully McBrutal returning either.

 

 

Take it a step further and Fitz isn't the quarterback of the present.

 

 

Disagree.....McKelvin and Williams would be great if we manage to find the ghost known as "the pass rush" or "pressure"

[thewildrabbit]

The Bills collapse was driven by key injuries on both offense and defense. The short off-season didn't allow the Bills superior S&C coaches do their magic. Next year we won't have this problem.

 

The injuries have allowed a lot of second-stringers to get valuable playing time. Depth will be better next year because of it.

 

The collapse has dramatically improved our draft position and we'll be able to fill important needs now.

 

The Defense has played so poorly that Gailey will be forced to shake up the coaching staff. We'll have better coaches on that side of the ball next year.

 

Yea well, tell that to Dick Jauron who had 3 years of 7-9 along with loads of injuries every year

 

Tell that to the Packers who had 19 players on IR last year and still won the SB

 

Tell that short off season story to the SF 49ers who just hired a new HC with a new staff and is 11-3, top 5 defense, and they are doing it with a recycled scrub QB that was labeled a wasted #1 draft pick.

[RussellDopeland]

Yea well, tell that to Dick Jauron who had 3 years of 7-9 along with loads of injuries every year

 

Tell that to the Packers who had 19 players on IR last year and still won the SB

 

Tell that short off season story to the SF 49ers who just hired a new HC with a new staff and is 11-3, top 5 defense, and they are doing it with a recycled scrub QB that was labeled a wasted #1 draft pick.

 

 

Best post I've read on the board in a while!

[Kelly the Dog]

Okay first, I haven't been around much. I imagine much of this territory has been covered. Don't respond if you don't wish.

 

The Bills Offense in general, Ryan Fitzpatrick is particular, and Chan Gailey as a coach, do not suck. Right now, they are all horrible. Injuries are the reason, and you can discount them all you want. But Tom Brady and Bill Belichick at the helm would not be having success with this team right now. They may not have a 7 game losing streak but they would completely suck, too.

 

You may think differently, and you are entitled, but neither of us know.

 

Here is what I think happened...

 

We played unexpectedly well for about 6-7 games but it was not without reason. The OL was young and inexperienced but they played well. They opened holes in the run game, they held opposing teams pass rushers off Fitz for two full seconds (most good lines give 3-4 but we were efficient), they didnt get penalties that killed drives and they didn't allow jailbreaks.

 

Fred Jackson was having an all-pro year.

 

They even withstood the first two injuries. When Urbik went down, Paul Rinehart filled in and even though he stinks, we still held up well. When Bell went down, rookie RT Hairston came in and did remarkably well. Neither was expected but we still produced. Fitz and Gailey were still able to be on the same page, Freddy was still great in the run and pass game. Different players on offense were able to make plays in the pass game between Stevie, Chandler, Nelson, Jones, and sometimes Brad Smith and Spiller.

 

We lost Evans to trade, then Roscoe, then Jones, and we were at a breaking point. You CAN'T always go to the well and just throw new guys in. You can go one, two deep, maybe even three. We proved that last year even though it was highly unusual. But you can't keep doing it. There is a tipping point. That is what was unsustainable, not the Bills offense. Defenses didn't catch up to us, we changed enough each week, we had different guys and different plays and different strategies to combat them. Manpower caught up to us.

 

It wasn't until the THIRD injury on offense and LT did the wheels come off when Gailey had the play Musical Positions with Levitre. Levitre had been terrific at LG regardless of what was going on around him. He even played decent at LT for a game but that injury started the collapse of the OL, which took down Fitz and took down Gailey.

 

Then when Jones went down and suddenly we didn't have legitimate back-ups to stick in the WR just stopped getting open. The holes in the run game didn't exist much anymore. That is when it all went to schit.

 

Concurrently, the defense was not great but quite capable those first 6-7 games regardless of stats. Teams win not when the O and the D and the ST all play great, they don't have to. But teams do NOT win when the O and the D and the ST let the other down. That is what is happening now and has happened. Before the O played well enough to win even if they had to come back. The D made enough plays or turnovers at the right times. The ST didnt screw up although they were never great this year. But that is why we were good for 6-7. Because for the most part those three teams did not let each other down.

 

The answer and reason on D? Kyle Williams and Shawne Merriman. Say what you want about Merriman but the team was completely different when he was in. He's a leader and a fiery one. He did put pressure on the QB. he kept the team fired up and him and Williams on one leg were way better than the guys who replaced them on two. They kept the huddle emotional and defense fired up and offense believing in them. Our defense gave up a lot of yards but they attacked, they were mostly in position, they took chances when the chances arose, and they made plays. There were 6-7 veterans out there. And it showed.

 

It is no surprise that when Merriman and Williams were gone, so was the leadership. There is only so much Barnett could do. Without the focus on Merriman and Williams, Andra Davis became worthless and teams could mess with Barnett. This all happened within the same few weeks and guess what, the team imploded.

 

Fitz lost confidence in his line which couldn't and didn't do what it could before, he lost confidence in his receiving corps who couldn't get open and then lost confidence in himself and his attack mode that he was excelling in. Gailey lost confidence in his OL to make holes and his WR to make plays and soon his QB and stopped attacking. There are all kinds of things to criticize Fitz and Gailey for now, because they both are making bone-headed decisions and plays left and right. But it's not because they suck, it's because they have no confidence and there is nothing to sustain this.

 

Most confidence in pro athletes is false confidence and ego driven. The Bills to a man believed in themselves early but that was before the games started. The winning is what gave them confidence. And they were on a pretty good roll. The D bailed the O out and vice versa. Once both of them were struck with injuries they could not overcome, they didn't and couldn't bail each other out, and they both went down the crapper.

 

Good teams with huge reserves of back-ups can withstand multiple injuries. The Bills had a lot of back-ups as starters and were winning. When the back-ups, back-ups, back-ups were forced into play on the OL and WR, the foundation collapsed. When the leaders on defense went down at the same time, the defense collapsed. Then everything collapsed.

 

There is no way of knowing, but I think if Hairston didnt get hurt when he did, and Levitre didnt have to be moved to LT, and we were able to get by with only having two back-ups play at a time, we still would have had a very potent offense. Fitz would not have regressed the way he did. And the boobirds would not have migrated from Miami to Buffalo.

 

That's the theory, there is no answer. Right now, we are the worst team in football. We could easily be in the playoff hunt if it were not for 3-4 injuries at the same time, and year long, that this young thin team could not overcome.

[K-9]

Outstanding post, Kelly. Your perspective has been missed. At least by those of us that don't see the fun in pissing on every parade that comes down the pike.

 

GO BILLS!!!

[Gray Beard]

You make some excellent points, but you haven't addressed the play calling. Many posts on this board have expressed disappointment that the run game has been abandoned. The O-line shuffle seems to have resulted in shaky pass protection, but the run blocking is still pretty good. Spiller and Choice with McIntyre blocking seems to work pretty well, but for some reason as soon as the other team gets ahead by even a little bit, the play calling becomes almost exclusively pass oriented.

 

A run oriented game would allow the defense to stay off the field longer, which prevents the other team's offense from getting on the field (since the other team's offense scores almost every time, this is a huge priority). The short pass game has been exposed, but the play calling doesn't change. Lack of adjustment to make use of the changing abilities of the guys on the field may not be the reason that the team has imploded, but it is a part of the problem.

[Kelly the Dog]

You make some excellent points, but you haven't addressed the play calling. Many posts on this board have expressed disappointment that the run game has been abandoned. The O-line shuffle seems to have resulted in shaky pass protection, but the run blocking is still pretty good. Spiller and Choice with McIntyre blocking seems to work pretty well, but for some reason as soon as the other team gets ahead by even a little bit, the play calling becomes almost exclusively pass oriented.

 

A run oriented game would allow the defense to stay off the field longer, which prevents the other team's offense from getting on the field (since the other team's offense scores almost every time, this is a huge priority). The short pass game has been exposed, but the play calling doesn't change. Lack of adjustment to make use of the changing abilities of the guys on the field may not be the reason that the team has imploded, but it is a part of the problem.

The run blocking is horrible. In three games. Spiller has had about three plays where there was a hole up the middle and he could run for four yards before getting hit. Earlier in the season, Freddy had three or four of those a game. Part of it is because we cannot throw and the defenses against us just crowd the box, so there is an extra man or two to block. But mostly because our offense has been emasculated and we are no threat. Plus our defense cannot stop anyone and we are almost always behind.

[spartacus]

The run blocking is horrible. In three games. Spiller has had about three plays where there was a hole up the middle and he could run for four yards before getting hit. Earlier in the season, Freddy had three or four of those a game. Part of it is because we cannot throw and the defenses against us just crowd the box, so there is an extra man or two to block. But mostly because our offense has been emasculated and we are no threat. Plus our defense cannot stop anyone and we are almost always behind.

 

The OL has sucked all year long -but what do you expect from the castoffs and rejects manning the line. Going in to the year with no NFL caliber OTs is just plain arrogant

 

Fitz covered up for most of it early by getting the ball out in under 2 seconds.

 

However, teams soon figured out the OL can not block and packed the defense within 5 yards of the line of scrimmage to take away the run game and the short pass.

 

 

I was at the Miami game and witnessed first hand all 11 Miami defenders on the line of scrimmage. Absolutely no fear of getting beat downfield.

 

With little time and even less accuracy from Fitz and no help from the WRs, the offense has ground to a halt

 

Even if Luck dropped in to their lap, he would be a complete failure in Bufalo because he would be shellshocked behind the joke of an OL the Bills continue to employ

 

 

 

 

 

[Chris in Syracuse]

That is one of the finest posts I have read. Bravo!

 

 

 

Okay first, I haven't been around much. I imagine much of this territory has been covered. Don't respond if you don't wish.

 

The Bills Offense in general, Ryan Fitzpatrick is particular, and Chan Gailey as a coach, do not suck. Right now, they are all horrible. Injuries are the reason, and you can discount them all you want. But Tom Brady and Bill Belichick at the helm would not be having success with this team right now. They may not have a 7 game losing streak but they would completely suck, too.

 

You may think differently, and you are entitled, but neither of us know.

 

Here is what I think happened...

 

We played unexpectedly well for about 6-7 games but it was not without reason. The OL was young and inexperienced but they played well. They opened holes in the run game, they held opposing teams pass rushers off Fitz for two full seconds (most good lines give 3-4 but we were efficient), they didnt get penalties that killed drives and they didn't allow jailbreaks.

 

Fred Jackson was having an all-pro year.

 

They even withstood the first two injuries. When Urbik went down, Paul Rinehart filled in and even though he stinks, we still held up well. When Bell went down, rookie RT Hairston came in and did remarkably well. Neither was expected but we still produced. Fitz and Gailey were still able to be on the same page, Freddy was still great in the run and pass game. Different players on offense were able to make plays in the pass game between Stevie, Chandler, Nelson, Jones, and sometimes Brad Smith and Spiller.

 

We lost Evans to trade, then Roscoe, then Jones, and we were at a breaking point. You CAN'T always go to the well and just throw new guys in. You can go one, two deep, maybe even three. We proved that last year even though it was highly unusual. But you can't keep doing it. There is a tipping point. That is what was unsustainable, not the Bills offense. Defenses didn't catch up to us, we changed enough each week, we had different guys and different plays and different strategies to combat them. Manpower caught up to us.

 

It wasn't until the THIRD injury on offense and LT did the wheels come off when Gailey had the play Musical Positions with Levitre. Levitre had been terrific at LG regardless of what was going on around him. He even played decent at LT for a game but that injury started the collapse of the OL, which took down Fitz and took down Gailey.

 

Then when Jones went down and suddenly we didn't have legitimate back-ups to stick in the WR just stopped getting open. The holes in the run game didn't exist much anymore. That is when it all went to schit.

 

Concurrently, the defense was not great but quite capable those first 6-7 games regardless of stats. Teams win not when the O and the D and the ST all play great, they don't have to. But teams do NOT win when the O and the D and the ST let the other down. That is what is happening now and has happened. Before the O played well enough to win even if they had to come back. The D made enough plays or turnovers at the right times. The ST didnt screw up although they were never great this year. But that is why we were good for 6-7. Because for the most part those three teams did not let each other down.

 

The answer and reason on D? Kyle Williams and Shawne Merriman. Say what you want about Merriman but the team was completely different when he was in. He's a leader and a fiery one. He did put pressure on the QB. he kept the team fired up and him and Williams on one leg were way better than the guys who replaced them on two. They kept the huddle emotional and defense fired up and offense believing in them. Our defense gave up a lot of yards but they attacked, they were mostly in position, they took chances when the chances arose, and they made plays. There were 6-7 veterans out there. And it showed.

 

It is no surprise that when Merriman and Williams were gone, so was the leadership. There is only so much Barnett could do. Without the focus on Merriman and Williams, Andra Davis became worthless and teams could mess with Barnett. This all happened within the same few weeks and guess what, the team imploded.

 

Fitz lost confidence in his line which couldn't and didn't do what it could before, he lost confidence in his receiving corps who couldn't get open and then lost confidence in himself and his attack mode that he was excelling in. Gailey lost confidence in his OL to make holes and his WR to make plays and soon his QB and stopped attacking. There are all kinds of things to criticize Fitz and Gailey for now, because they both are making bone-headed decisions and plays left and right. But it's not because they suck, it's because they have no confidence and there is nothing to sustain this.

 

Most confidence in pro athletes is false confidence and ego driven. The Bills to a man believed in themselves early but that was before the games started. The winning is what gave them confidence. And they were on a pretty good roll. The D bailed the O out and vice versa. Once both of them were struck with injuries they could not overcome, they didn't and couldn't bail each other out, and they both went down the crapper.

 

Good teams with huge reserves of back-ups can withstand multiple injuries. The Bills had a lot of back-ups as starters and were winning. When the back-ups, back-ups, back-ups were forced into play on the OL and WR, the foundation collapsed. When the leaders on defense went down at the same time, the defense collapsed. Then everything collapsed.

 

There is no way of knowing, but I think if Hairston didnt get hurt when he did, and Levitre didnt have to be moved to LT, and we were able to get by with only having two back-ups play at a time, we still would have had a very potent offense. Fitz would not have regressed the way he did. And the boobirds would not have migrated from Miami to Buffalo.

 

That's the theory, there is no answer. Right now, we are the worst team in football. We could easily be in the playoff hunt if it were not for 3-4 injuries at the same time, and year long, that this young thin team could not overcome.

[Buffalo Barbarian]

The Bills collapse was driven by key injuries on both offense and defense. The short off-season didn't allow the Bills superior S&C coaches do their magic. Next year we won't have this problem.

 

The injuries have allowed a lot of second-stringers to get valuable playing time. Depth will be better next year because of it.

 

The collapse has dramatically improved our draft position and we'll be able to fill important needs now.

 

The Defense has played so poorly that Gailey will be forced to shake up the coaching staff. We'll have better coaches on that side of the ball next year.

hope you're right.