Disturbing Bills Trend: Ignoring 1st round OL picks

[Nanker]

Ohh, I'm sorry. John Fina only played for the Bills for 10 years, so he must have sucked.

 

He did.

[sllib olaffub]

I don't think Nix would have passed on a sure thing probowl caliber Tackle these last two years. The right guy hasn't fallen to us - and, as suggested by PTR, you simply can't fix all our problems - D-line, Linebackers, O-line, QB, etc., with a few drafts.

 

Unfortunately, the other means of aquiring talent haven't been used too much of late with the O-line, and I'm sensing that Gailey is getting frustrated by the lack of talented depth he has to work with there - the defensive front seven got pretty good in one offseason, and now there ins't a balance between the two lines.

 

If they figured going into this season that they weren't going to be playoff bound, likely, because they simply can't address all of last year's weaknesses with one draft, then they were right. If they really thought they could ignore the O-line and still compete - I think we'll see how challenging that will be. Nix, man, you've got money to spend - go get a couple guys to help if only for this year! Dump em in the offseason and draft some guys next year, if building through the draft is the only way, but please, don't go into the season this year without a little more help on that O-line!

(Even the model of franchises Pittsburgh, last year in similar circumstances as us with their O-line depth, went out and got a guy for a year, and it worked out for them.)

Edited August 17, 2011 by sllib olaffub

[Rico]

He did.

Indeed.

Bills had a stud LT who wasn't even drafted & they traded him to the Eagles.

That being said, I would've liked to see them take at least 1 OT in the 1st 3 rounds sometime during the last 5 years or so.

[CookieG]

Same place we are now since none of those guys are on our team (except McKelvin). Unless you meant to ask "if we had known they were going to be busts and drafted someone else, then where would we be?" Which there is no possible way we could have known any of them would suck (except maybe Maybin)

 

 

The "how could we know they would be busts" line is right up there with the "there's only one no. 1 pick every year" for nonsense.

 

There's a bit of a lesson in this thread, if you'd care to learn it.

[ganesh]

First Round Bills OL picks of the past:

 

2002:

Mike Williams - BUST

 

The rest: (ahem)

 

Ruben Brown, Pro Bowler

John Fina (very solid LT)

Will Wolford, Pro Bowler

Jim Richter, Pro Bowler

Stew Barber, AFL All-Star

 

WHAT are we DOING???? My God, I didn't realize that we were 5/6 on picks for OLmen. That is amazing, and yet we ignore the position for lower round picks.

 

Thoughts?

 

The Bills have had what @ 45+ drafts in their history. There are 22 starting positions in the NFL...that gives you a shot at getting 2-3 starters at the same position in that period of time. The Bills have invested on the OL this decade...just have not been successful...Except for the Donahoe era, the bills have tried hard.....Dockery, Walker, Williams, Wood, Levitre...Hangatner, Green, ..The only guy who had a pro-bowl career, Jason Peters was traded. Again, we don't know all the details, but there was definitely rumors @ that time that Peters asked too much money from the Bills as a way out to go and play somewhere else.

 

The ones they missed, Eric Steinbach instead of McGahee, Mangold instead of McCargo, Oher instead of Maybin.

[Thoner7]

So U R saying u do not like Marcell Dareus!

 

I think he was getting at Bulaga (Spiller) and maybe Oher (Maybin).

 

Going back farther Im sure there are other examples.

[hammie65]

I have been a supporter of CHIX but have also been baffled by the decisions to not draft a left or right tackle early but believe they will go mostly O-line and offense in the next draft. There also (IMO) has been a real lack of talent at these positions of need in free agency,, and we have been unable to get players like Clabo for who knows the real reasons why (money, better teams to play for, etc). It HAS to be addressed eventually or else CHIX will be gone in a couple of years like the rest. Pray that they address it soon or we're in for another long streak of mediocrity.

 

I do believe they will address it next year through the draft and will game plan around these weaknesses as best as they can this season.

 

Does anyone remember other FA players such as Clabo that we could have had at left or right tackle that we had a legitimate shot at?

[Buffalo Barbarian]

First Round Bills OL picks of the past:

 

2002:

Mike Williams - BUST

 

The rest: (ahem)

 

Ruben Brown, Pro Bowler

John Fina (very solid LT)

Will Wolford, Pro Bowler

Jim Richter, Pro Bowler

Stew Barber, AFL All-Star

 

WHAT are we DOING???? My God, I didn't realize that we were 5/6 on picks for OLmen. That is amazing, and yet we ignore the position for lower round picks.

 

Thoughts?

This is why we haven't sniffed the playoffs since 99, however with the "demotion" (wake up call) of Levitre the Staff realizes this a major weakness and will probably add some guys before the season starts and will draft OTs with our first two picks next year.

[Sisyphean Bills]

If you want to put this regime under the microscope, you might want to focus on Wang, Calloway, and Hairston.

[JohnC]

a lot of us wanted Oher, not Spiller...

 

Oher was in the Maybin draft. Taking Oher after trading Peters would have been an excellent move. In hindsight, our OL in one draft could have gone through a major rebuild with the the addition of Oher, Levitre and Wood.

[DanInSouthBuffalo]

Myself, I haven't liked the OL in the 1st round the last two years where the Bills picked. Based on Buddy's comments to the AP "We don’t have enough offensive linemen", I'd say we're primed for some OT help early in the 2012 draft.

[shibuya]

a lot of us wanted Oher, not Spiller...

 

 

No we wanted Oher or Orakpo not Maybin

[JohnC]

Myself, I haven't liked the OL in the 1st round the last two years where the Bills picked. Based on Buddy's comments to the AP "We don’t have enough offensive linemen", I'd say we're primed for some OT help early in the 2012 draft.

 

You make a good point. In the year that Spiller was taken the two top OTs in the draft (McCung and Williams) were gone before our pick came up. In our last draft, Dareus was our best pick by far when I turn came up to make the pick. Reaching for a need is a primary reason why this franchise has made so many draft mistakes.

[eme123]

Successful 1st round NFL draft strategy.

 

Cross all WR's, RB's, TE's, & Safeties off your 1st round board.

 

Draft the BEST overall player from there. Pick the player that is best suited to be an NFL starter right away. Whether it be OL, DL, LB, QB, or whatever.

 

For example, going into a draft and saying "we are weakest at DE so we got to pick a DE in the 1st round" narrows down the likely hood that your going to pick a sure fire NFL starter. Instead of picking from all sorts of positions and getting the sure thing you narrow your pick down to 3 or 4 DE's. Some DE shows up and has amazing answers to all of your questions and lights up the combine. You classify him as a raw talent and draft him. Your left with Aaron Maybin.

 

So, I don't care if the BIlls don't draft an OL for the next 10 years as long as they are drafting the best overall player available. The rest will fall into place.

[NewEra]

Successful 1st round NFL draft strategy.

 

Cross all WR's, RB's, TE's, & Safeties off your 1st round board.

 

Draft the BEST overall player from there. Pick the player that is best suited to be an NFL starter right away. Whether it be OL, DL, LB, QB, or whatever.

 

For example, going into a draft and saying "we are weakest at DE so we got to pick a DE in the 1st round" narrows down the likely hood that your going to pick a sure fire NFL starter. Instead of picking from all sorts of positions and getting the sure thing you narrow your pick down to 3 or 4 DE's. Some DE shows up and has amazing answers to all of your questions and lights up the combine. You classify him as a raw talent and draft him. Your left with Aaron Maybin.

 

So, I don't care if the BIlls don't draft an OL for the next 10 years as long as they are drafting the best overall player available. The rest will fall into place.

I wouldn't neccesarily cross out WR in next years draft. If we're sitting at #10 and Justin Blackmon or alshon jeffery is there, I wouldn't be upset if we took one of them. I agree we need to bolster the offensive line in the draft next year. I'd like to take an OT and OG in the first 3-4 rounds. We may be taking a QB with our first though. Then there's FA. Not sure who's gonna be available, but landing a good Tackle in FA would allow us to draft differently.

[3rdand12]

" .....however with the "demotion" (wake up call) of Levitre the Staff realizes this a major weakness and will probably add some guys before the season starts and will draft OTs with our first two picks next year."

lets hope they agree with you about this!

[Kelly the Dog]

The Bills have missed the playoffs for 11 straight years, and in that time, they have only drafted two OL with the #1 pick. Two!! In 11 years!!!

 

The last 11 Super Bowl Winners? How many OL did those teams select in the first round in those same 11 years?

 

1. Packers - 2 OL in First Round

2. Saints - 1 OL in First Round

3. Steelers - 2

4. Giants - 0

5. Colts - 1

6. Steelers - 2

7. Pats - 2

8. Pats - 2

9. Bucs - 2

10. Pats - 2

11. Ravens - 2

 

That should sum it up.

Edited August 17, 2011 by Kelly the Fair and Balanced Dog

[CardinalScotts]

If you want to put this regime under the microscope, you might want to focus on Wang, Calloway, and Hairston.

 

exactly they have had two drafts..Darius looks great, Spiller well give another year I think he'll be great

[CookieG]

The Bills have missed the playoffs for 11 straight years, and in that time, they have only drafted two OL with the #1 pick. Two!! In 11 years!!!

 

The last 11 Super Bowl Winners? How many OL did those teams select in the first round in those same 11 years?

 

1. Packers - 2 OL in First Round

2. Saints - 1 OL in First Round

3. Steelers - 2

4. Giants - 0

5. Colts - 1

6. Steelers - 2

7. Pats - 2

8. Pats - 2

9. Bucs - 2

10. Pats - 2

11. Ravens - 2

 

That should sum it up.

 

In the past 10 years, the Ravens used 7 of their picks in the 1st three rounds on OL, plus a number of 4th and 5th round picks;

The Steelers used 6 plus a number of 4th (with mixed results);

The Patriots 6, and that was after using their prior two no. 1 picks on OL in the late 90's;

The Saints 5, and also hit on some 4th and 5th round picks (most notably Jahri Evans and Carl Nix);

 

Each of these teams has had a better oline for the last decade than Buffalo, most with pretty established lines, and yet they STILL outpace the Bills for picks in rounds 1-3, (and most, in rounds 4-5 also);

 

Buffalo used a whopping three picks in those rounds over that time period.

 

Indy and Green Bay haven't used high picks as much, until recently, but Indy has been among the leader leaders in sacks surrendered for the past decade. Despite passing more, they normally surrender sacks in the teens, not the 40's. If Indy can get away with using lower round picks, god bless 'em. The point is...they have succeeded...we haven't.

 

Bill Polian watched his Oline drop compared to previous years (despite still giving up less than 20 sacks). He didn't sit on his hands, brag up the ebay offensive linemen he found, or whine about not having enough picks. He spent his first two picks on the OL.

 

In fact, several teams did, after watching their quality suffer. Green Bay has for 2 years, so have the Steelers.

 

Only Buffalo uses the "we'll get some next year" approach.

[Chilly]

In the past 10 years, the Ravens used 7 of their picks in the 1st three rounds on OL, plus a number of 4th and 5th round picks;

The Steelers used 6 plus a number of 4th (with mixed results);

The Patriots 6, and that was after using their prior two no. 1 picks on OL in the late 90's;

The Saints 5, and also hit on some 4th and 5th round picks (most notably Jahri Evans and Carl Nix);

 

Each of these teams has had a better oline for the last decade than Buffalo, most with pretty established lines, and yet they STILL outpace the Bills for picks in rounds 1-3, (and most, in rounds 4-5 also);

 

Buffalo used a whopping three picks in those rounds over that time period.

 

Indy and Green Bay haven't used high picks as much, until recently, but Indy has been among the leader leaders in sacks surrendered for the past decade. Despite passing more, they normally surrender sacks in the teens, not the 40's. If Indy can get away with using lower round picks, god bless 'em. The point is...they have succeeded...we haven't.

 

Bill Polian watched his Oline drop compared to previous years (despite still giving up less than 20 sacks). He didn't sit on his hands, brag up the ebay offensive linemen he found, or whine about not having enough picks. He spent his first two picks on the OL.

 

In fact, several teams did, after watching their quality suffer. Green Bay has for 2 years, so have the Steelers.

 

Only Buffalo uses the "we'll get some next year" approach.

 

Which doesn't necessarily mean the Bills value offensive line less than other teams. A true analysis of this would need to look at how each team graded each draft pick, the success rate of the grades by position, decisions they made relative to what was available vs what they had graded, what the perception was for that team of where players would fall vs the choice they decided to make, etc.

 

Any/All of the following could be true:

 

1.) The Bills value offensive line less than other teams.

2.) The Bills have a systemic problem in their grading system, causing offensive line grades to be lower than they should be.

3.) The Bills have issues judging the value of offensive linemen to other teams, and believe they will fall far below where they actually do.

4.) The Bills have a systemic issue in their grading system, causing the difference between multiple offensive line prospects to be much less than the difference between multiple prospects of other positions, thus leading them to value other positions more early in the draft.

5.) The Bills value different things in players than other teams do (right/wrong), causing offensive linemen other teams like to drop below players the Bills like. However, because the Bills are successful at judging how other teams value players, they make a judgement to wait on OL until they can get good value for a player they want, rather than reaching for them in round 1.

 

There's probably a lot more, but that's all I came up with off the top of my head. My point is that just using more 1st rounders on OL isn't going to fix the root cause unless you understand what the root cause actually is.

 

Using significantly less picks on the O-Line compared to other teams is a symptom of the problem, not the problem itself.

 

I also agree with Kelly's point that just because a team drafts a lot of OL, doesn't mean that's what made them a successful OL. However, I think these are important details to really make a judgement on it:

 

- What are the injury rates for OL, and how correlated is depth on OL to overall success of OL unit on average?

- What are the success rates on acquiring offensive linemen? Are the success rates low enough that the teams who scout & sign more OL more often going to have a better chance at success?

Edited August 18, 2011 by BlueFire