Bills' Fitzpatrick Ranks Poorly Under Pressure

[Sisyphean Bills]

This thread reminds me of the arguments during the lathering phase (of the lather, scrub, rinse, repeat QB cycle) when Trent Edwards stepped to the fore as the real deal and big time QB answering the JP Losman problem...

[Doc]

FIXED.

Not. His INT% under pressure is pretty low.

[McD]

I agree with most of this, but my conclusion about Fitz may be less optimistic than yours.

 

First, there's the question of Fitz's grade under pressure. On a scale that apparently ranged from 19 all the way down to -10, Fitz scored a -4.5 under pressure. That made him the 30th-best pressure QB of those evaluated (out of 34). His grade under pressure was 3.5 points worse than Jimmy Clausen's. Considering that Pro Football Focus graded each play individually, that grade is the single most important part of the article.

 

Fitz's INT percentage under pressure was 3.05%. Of the 33 non-Fitz QBs evaluated, only 12 had a worse interception percentage under pressure. Fitz's performance in that category is noticeably worse than a typical NFL QB.

 

However, he was the eighth-best QB in the league at avoiding a sack when under pressure; so that's clearly a point in his favor. It is also the case that he's good at getting rid of the ball quickly, making the percentage of dropbacks under pressure lower than it otherwise would have been.

 

Also of significance was Fitz's completion percentage under pressure, of 39.2%. Fitz is the third-worst QB in the league (out of the 34 examined) in that category. The second-worst QB at completing passes under pressure was Jimmy Clausen, whose completion percentage under pressure was just 0.18% lower than Fitz's. Amusingly, the worst QB in the league under pressure was Mark Sanchez. Unfortunately, Bills' fans making fun of Sanchez on that basis is like a homeless man with a shiny new shopping cart giving some other homeless man a hard time about his old and squeaky shopping cart!

 

While it is clear Fitz does some things well (such as getting rid of the ball in a hurry), the overall picture which emerged from this article was of a quarterback who's very mediocre under pressure. This confirms my opinion that Fitz is not, and never will be, a franchise QB, or anything reasonably close.

 

See the above bolded words and you tell me what in the hell "under pressure" means... it's subjective. Does that mean you're a QB standing behind the best O-Line in the NFL and some D player has a "pressence" in the backfield (he could get picked up by a solid blocking RB too, then there is in effect NO pressure). Or, you could be Fitz, standing behind a hodge-podge group of an O-line that played admirably, but are far from the leagues best. There is a VAST amount of variables that will never show a true picture here.

 

At least have all of the QB's in this article play within the same parameters if you want to show an objective analysis...

 

You want better QB play...? Then get better O-line play, a solid TE and a running game on one side of the ball and then get a D to stop people so we're not always playing from behind and the opposition wouldn't be able to pin their ears back and go after whoever we play at QB.

Edited May 17, 2011 by McD

[McD]

First of all... take a look at the team around each QB as it is a TEAM sport, and any player is pretty much dependent on others around him to be able to play their best, everything comes into consideration here, coaching, scheme, other players.What makes me think Fitz can get the job done is first looking at the team around him, bad O line, no running game, only one decent receiver all year, new coaches, new scheme. Call it excuses if you like, just look at that really bad 4-12 team around him and compare that cast to other teams.

 

An important way to judge a player is what happened when different QB's took the field, it really showed how bad that O line really is when they needed to pass protect more then 3 seconds for Trent Edwards and Brian Brohm....both those QB's sucked ass so hard they could turn a hippo inside out.

 

If you TiVO'd any of last years games, go back and watch "pants on the ground" Fitz running for his life against the Jets, the guy was the leading rusher for the Bills that game. Fitz played on one of the worst Buffalo Bills teams ever and managed to pull out 4 wins, all I know is that team goes win-less and pulls a Detroit if not for Fitz and his uncanny ability to escape the pass rush. Fitz has about as much es-capability as anyone I've ever seen play QB in the NFL, if I were to compare the guy to anyone it would be Fran Tarkenton

 

 

This article is for people who like stats, but what the stats don't show is that both Brady and Ryan have all pro tight ends, a better running game and O line, better receiving corps, better coaching and play calling. Both can take a 7 step drop if they need to and at any time. aww hell....Ive watched Tom Brady in plays where the guy has 15 seconds get rid of the football, Fitz had a max of 3 seconds most of last season.

 

I don't need to look at some page of stats to know that Brady and Ryan are going to look better under pressure... simply because they have better options to get rid of the ball while under pressure

,

 

Thank you...

 

Read this....same source

 

http://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2011/04/22/help-wanted-buffalo-bills/

 

""This was originally titled “Right Tackle”, but given Demetrius Bell (-12.9) didn’t play all that impressively for the Bills it was changed to “Offensive Tackle”. In 2010, the Bills simply could not find an answer at right tackle despite giving four guys the opportunity to win the job. Erik Pears (-0.3), Cornell Green (-4.5), Mansfield Wrotto (-10.8), and Cord Howard (-19.5) all played 60+ snaps but their combined play put them third to last of all tackles.""

 

""Given the importance of offensive tackle play in a passing-oriented league, the Bills must address this need.""

 

 

 

One of the best ways to help with QB pressure is to have decent options to get rid of the ball...

 

""The tight end position was a black hole for the Bills. The tight ends as a group only managed 23 receptions, 187 yards, and 1 touchdown – the single worst production from a group of tight ends in the NFL. ""

 

 

 

And thanks again...

[Maddog69]

Can those that are bashing Fitz in this post, point specifically to what the FO could have done over the past 4-5 months regarding the QB position ? Be specific. I will even help by seeding this discussion with some ideas:

- Draft a QB: Which one and why do you think that QB would be a good replacement for Fitz?

- Trade before the end of past season (before labor issues): Again, who would you have traded for and why ?

 

Further, what do you think the FO can do different prior to next offseason ?

 

The original article's source data is shaky and this board has gone all in a tizzy about how the one guy who brought consistency to his position does not deserve to start.

I would have liked them to be more proactive in addressing the QB position last year. The fact that Fitz wasn't even their top pick for QB on our roster last year is funny to me. Any moron could see that Trent sucked, except them. Trent should have been gone and another QB should have been brought in (McNabb, Bulger, Delhomme). Then they should have also drafted Colt McCoy in Rd3. Cleveland did it right. They brought in Delhomme, Wallace and McCoy).

It would have been great having Delhomme, McCoy and Fitz as our 3 QBs.

Fitz is a good backup. We need a #1 and we need a developmental QB.

I am interested to see who they bring in when the League opens for Business.

 

Not. His INT% under pressure is pretty low.

That doesn't help an argument for Fitz being good. He had quite a few INT's. If they happened when he was not under pressure, that's not a good thing.

At least you could partially excuse it if they happened under pressure.

[McD]

first, i have been a Fitz supporter....but after reading this article, i am less impressed.

 

this discussion has focused on Fitz "under pressure"....

 

 

THERE IS ADDITIONAL DATA PROVIDED of Fitz NOT under pressure that shows poorly....

 

it is "Completion Percentage on Deep Throws"

 

We broke down every pass from the 2010 season, and dropped them into numerous categories and sub categories. One of these was passes thrown longer than 20 yards. Which brings us to the point of this article. A look at who threw downfield the most and who did it most efficiently. 30 deep attempts was the qualifying mark to be considered.

 

Fitz ranked 25th in Deep Throw Completion Percentage....even tho he had the 8th highest Deep Throw Percentage of Attempts. (this is the part where we blame his receivers....lol)

 

http://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2011/05/16/pressure-reveals/

 

then click "deep ball"

 

Lol... this is nore more indicative of his play that the OP. Again, too many variables. These QB's aren't running the same plays, nor are they behind the same O-lines, in the same game conditions, with the same supporting cast and coaching staff. All of these come into play whether you like it or not.

[San-O]

Lol... this is nore more indicative of his play that the OP. Again, too many variables. These QB's aren't running the same plays, nor are they behind the same O-lines, in the same game conditions, with the same supporting cast and coaching staff. All of these come into play whether you like it or not.

 

 

Excuse, err, ehh, VARIABLES.

 

What is, err, ehh, Pressure! Define pressure!

 

Umm, doesn't make any sense. Statement - statement - statement, O-LINE!

 

 

a·pol·o·gist/əˈpäləjist/ = http://www.thefreedictionary.com/apologist

[John from Riverside]

first, i have been a Fitz supporter....but after reading this article, i am less impressed.

 

this discussion has focused on Fitz "under pressure"....

 

 

THERE IS ADDITIONAL DATA PROVIDED of Fitz NOT under pressure that shows poorly....

 

it is "Completion Percentage on Deep Throws"

 

We broke down every pass from the 2010 season, and dropped them into numerous categories and sub categories. One of these was passes thrown longer than 20 yards. Which brings us to the point of this article. A look at who threw downfield the most and who did it most efficiently. 30 deep attempts was the qualifying mark to be considered.

 

Fitz ranked 25th in Deep Throw Completion Percentage....even tho he had the 8th highest Deep Throw Percentage of Attempts. (this is the part where we blame his receivers....lol)

 

http://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2011/05/16/pressure-reveals/

 

then click "deep ball"

 

How about we just be honest about the thing and say he didn't have time to throw the deep ball the majority of the time? Could this be why Lee Evans (who everyone knows is a deep threat) couldn't get the ball?

 

When you cant pass protect for long you throw short

 

Can those that are bashing Fitz in this post, point specifically to what the FO could have done over the past 4-5 months regarding the QB position ? Be specific. I will even help by seeding this discussion with some ideas:

- Draft a QB: Which one and why do you think that QB would be a good replacement for Fitz?

- Trade before the end of past season (before labor issues): Again, who would you have traded for and why ?

 

Further, what do you think the FO can do different prior to next offseason ?

 

The original article's source data is shaky and this board has gone all in a tizzy about how the one guy who brought consistency to his position does not deserve to start.

 

 

Your not going to get that Chicago....its much to easy to sit and B word about it rather then come up with your own viable solution. I have already asked this question.

[thewildrabbit]

See the above bolded words and you tell me what in the hell "under pressure" means... it's subjective. Does that mean you're a QB standing behind the best O-Line in the NFL and some D player has a "pressence" in the backfield (he could get picked up by a solid blocking RB too, then there is in effect NO pressure). Or, you could be Fitz, standing behind a hodge-podge group of an O-line that played admirably, but are far from the leagues best. There is a VAST amount of variables that will never show a true picture here.

 

At least have all of the QB's in this article play within the same parameters if you want to show an objective analysis...

 

You want better QB play...? Then get better O-line players, a solid TE and a running game on one side of the ball and then get a D to stop people so we're not always playing from behind and the opposition wouldn't be able to pin their ears back and go after whoever we play at QB.

 

 

Can the fans clamoring for a better QB stop nit picking the ONLY bright spot on the team last year, the guy threw for 3000 yards on one of the worst Buffalo Bills teams ever, and all I see is people bitching about his play.... pls take your meds

 

Seriously, WTF did you expect him to have... 4000+ yards 34 TD's.... who was he supposed to throw to? the TE, because the position basically doesn't exist on this team? the ONE WR, because Evans and Parrish were both on IR. One handed injured Fred Jackson or the rookie RB who was supposed to make the O line block better, you know that rook who was named starter for the opener and stayed on the field only a few plays or the RB who was traded to Seattle for a 4th?

 

Fitz was injured and didn't play in one game at the end of the season, so all the fans thinking Brian Brohm was the answer got a rude shock, Brohm sucked worse then Edwards.

 

 

Do something productive and start discussing what will happen this year with no upgrade to the O line whatsoever, still no TE, no back up QB...Fitz IS going to get injured again this year playing behind that same PoS O line, just like he missed games the last two years because of injuries....and when that back up takes the field you will see what a bad QB looks like.

[Orton's Arm]

fitz is this years starting qb, like it or not.

The above post has an eerily familiar feel to it. In the mid-'90s it was

 

"Todd Collins is this year's starting QB, like it or not." Later it was,

 

"Billy Joe Hobart is the starting QB, like it or not." and then,

 

"Rob Johnson is this year's starting QB, like it or not." Subsequent starting QBs have included:

 

Doug Flutie

Drew Bledsoe

Kelly Holcomb

JP Losman

Trent Edwards

 

and now

 

Ryan Fitzpatrick.

 

Let's look at all these guys. Todd Collins was a second round pick selected with the intention of replacing Jim Kelly. It's hard to find good franchise QBs in the first round, let alone the second! Billy Joe Hobart was a player from some other team we acquired by trading away a third round pick. I suppose it must have seemed like a good idea at the time. Rob Johnson was acquired because he looked good in limited action playing behind Hall-of-Fame-level LT Tony Boselli. How he looked behind the Bills' chopped liver OL was another matter. Doug Flutie was an old, short, weak-armed QB the Bills signed in free agency in hopes of creating bitterness between their QBs, and division within their locker room. Bill Belichick woke up one morning in 2002 and decided he wanted a first round pick for his aging backup QB (Bledsoe). Since no one else was willing to meet that asking price, the Bills decided to step in and give Belichick the first round pick they felt he needed and deserved. Bledsoe gave the Bills a total of eight--eight!--good games, plus two and a half years of mediocre play, in exchange for that first rounder. Kelly Holcomb was a weak-armed backup who excelled in making good decisions and dealing with a lack of pass protection. He averaged 6.6 yards per attempt for the Bills in 2005; which is not all that much different than Fitz's 6.8 yards per attempt this past season.

 

JP Losman was chosen in the first round. The Bills' front office figured, "a QB with immense physical gifts, who's proven nothing as a pocket passer at the college level, fits the standard-issue profile of a bust. But QBs like that can't all be busts, and maybe we'll get lucky with Losman! " Trent Edwards provided about what you'd expect a third rounder to provide: which is to say, he was a decent backup. Prior to signing with the Bills, Fitzpatrick was also considered a career backup. A big reason for that is that his career average is currently 6.0 yards per attempt--well under Edwards' career average of 6.5 yards per attempt. This past season Fitz averaged 6.8 yards per attempt; making him a slightly better QB than Edwards. But a lot of people on these boards only seem to remember Edwards' last two games as a Bill--games in which Edwards took the blame for the offense as a whole getting flat-out dominated. No running game, no pass protection, no receivers getting open, nothing. Never mind the fact that Edwards' overall play with the Bills (6.5 yards per attempt), under adverse circumstances, wasn't that much different than Fitz's past season with the Bills (6.8 yards per attempt), also under adverse circumstances.

 

In the 2009 season, Fitz got about half the starts, and Edwards the other half. Edwards averaged 6.4 yards per attempt in 2009, as compared to 6.3 for Fitz. Yet somehow Edwards is garbage and Fitz is The Answer.

 

It's been a very long time since the Bills have had a real QB, and a lot of fans seem to have forgotten what one looks like. Nothing about any of the above-mentioned QBs--specifically including Ryan Fitzpatrick--screams out "legitimate long-term answer" to me.

 

Maybe the Bills didn't have a chance to get a franchise QB in this draft; and I would have opposed drafting either Newton or Gabbert in the first round. But the fact that the Bills may not have had the opportunity to solve their QB problem does not mean that no QB problem exists!

[reddogblitz]

In the 2009 season, Fitz got about half the starts, and Edwards the other half. Edwards averaged 6.4 yards per attempt in 2009, as compared to 6.3 for Fitz. Yet somehow Edwards is garbage and Fitz is The Answer.

Yes, if all you care about is YPA, which evidently you do, then you're right. If you look for Ws, like I do, you'd notice that in games where Fitz was the leading passer in 2009, the Bills were 5-4. In games with Trent, 1-5. Games with Brohm 0-1. In 2009 and 2010, in games Fitz was the man Bills were 9-13. With everyone else, 1-9.

 

This is why there is excitement about Fitz. He's a gamer and leader and many believe (myself included) with a better team, a winner. He did throw the game winning pass against the eventual AFC champs but it was dropped. he also got us in FG position to win against the Chiefs only to have the kicker miss.

 

He also holds longest TD pass in Bills history (99 yards) and longest run from scrimmage by a QB for a TD (31 yards).

 

Let's just let this season play out before we crown Fitz the franchise QB, or "career backup".

[Orton's Arm]

Yes, if all you care about is YPA, which evidently you do, then you're right. If you look for Ws, like I do, you'd notice that in games where Fitz was the leading passer in 2009, the Bills were 5-4. In games with Trent, 1-5. Games with Brohm 0-1. In 2009 and 2010, in games Fitz was the man Bills were 9-13. With everyone else, 1-9.

 

This is why there is excitement about Fitz. He's a gamer and leader and many believe (myself included) with a better team, a winner. He did throw the game winning pass against the eventual AFC champs but it was dropped. he also got us in FG position to win against the Chiefs only to have the kicker miss.

 

He also holds longest TD pass in Bills history (99 yards) and longest run from scrimmage by a QB for a TD (31 yards).

 

Let's just let this season play out before we crown Fitz the franchise QB, or "career backup".

As long as we're evaluating QBs based on wins (instead of their passing stats), why not do the same for other players on the team? Instead of evaluating RDEs on the basis of sacks and tackles, why not just ask how many games their teams won? Likewise, it doesn't make sense to keep track of a WR's catches, receiving yards, or drops. Just count his team's wins instead.

 

It's true that a QB is more important than any other individual player on the field. But ask yourself this question: suppose Team 1 has Joe Montana as its QB, and below-average players at every other position. Team 2 has a below-average QB, and Hall of Fame players at every other position. If those two teams were to play each other, which one would win?

 

The answer to that question can be found in the Ravens of 2000 season. During Trent Dilfer's final 16 games as a Raven (including the postseason), the Ravens went 15-1. Some might respond with, "Trent Dilfer was a winning quarterback. He did what he had to do to win." But once Dilfer was no longer paired with one of the three best defenses in NFL history, he found it a lot tougher to be a "winning quarterback."

 

My point here is that football is a team sport, and it's always a mistake to assign wins or losses to any one player.

 

I realize you were not necessarily disputing the above statement. Maybe you were implying something along the lines of, "the Bills with Trent Edwards were able to come close to winning, but couldn't quite pull it off. Putting Fitzpatrick under center gave them that little extra something they needed to turn losses into wins." That would be a far more reasonable point of view than would attempting to claim that QBs (as opposed to teams) should have win/loss records!

 

There were some advantages of Fitz over Edwards that didn't necessarily show up in the stat sheet. Edwards seldom threw deep, allowing the defense to crowd the line of scrimmage. That hurts the running game. Fitz attempted a lot more deep throws--even if he wasn't particularly accurate at making them--which forced defenses to defend more of the field. In that sense he was an upgrade over Edwards. But Edwards' yards-per-attempt stat for that year was mediocre, and Fitz's was at least equally so. If Edwards' mediocre yards per attempt stat indicated serious flaws with his play (which it did), then the same is also true for Fitz's mediocre yards per attempt stat. That's one of (many) reasons why neither QB is the long-term answer.

[ColdBlueNorth]

As others have noted it is a very flawed study using subjective terms like pressure without defining what that entails. It also does not take into account other factors like how many obvious passing downs a QB faced, not just how many drop-back attempts. QB's forced into 3rd and long situations with no running game will face defenses who sellout for blitzing and defending the pass.

 

Last time I checked receivers drop the ball and can add to the "incompletion" stat. Fitz had a host of first year starters at the WR position last year and there were a lot of dropped passes. Fitz can be inaccurate (or it could be that his rookie receivers sometimes run a poor or the wrong route - I'm not in the huddle), but he usually put the ball where the receiver could make a play on it, he often had to tuck the ball and run to escape pressure with no time to throw and no obvious hot read. Fitz is 4th on the list of rushing QBs and 3rd for rushing yards per attempt. He also sucked at protecting the ball and fumbled and lost the ball more often than anyone would like to see, and I put it out there so folks know I am not just reading all the positives into his play.

 

Fitz looked like a guy under a new offensive coach, in a new offensive system, with rookie receivers, no consistent O-line performance (for a variety of reasons), no TE to speak of, with an offense that couldn't buy a running game, and a defense that couldn't get off the field... I think Chan and Buddy made the right call. At the very least let's wait till they fix some of the broken crap around Fitz and if his play does not improve the team invests in another QB (which they will do anyways just to groom someone for the future).

 

I for one would like to see what Fitz could do with a better supporting cast and a defense that can take some of the burden off the offense and give them more chances with the ball.

 

Just to seal my point here is a video reminder from the distant past of last season. Stevie had what... about 5-6 dropped passes that day? A pressure situation in OT with the Steelers zone blitz (picked up fairly well, but as a QB you know there is a good chance that Harrison is going to nail you after the throw anyway) and there's Fitz, as he did that entire game, standing up to the pressure and delivering a perfect strike. Would we have been talking differently about him if his receiving core had come to play that game and we had trounced the Steelers - I wonder???

 

 

 

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nGJWBWcFD_4

[JESSEFEFFER]

Let's say for the sake of argument that a "pressure situation involves" an unblocked defender in the backfield that casues the QB to either move, hold the ball, run the ball, throw the ball early or take a sack. In this analysis by Khaled Elsayed I see the following:

 

No attempt to quantify a successful QB run as a "good" response to pressure.

 

No scale of how quick the pressure came. Was it early or late? Did it kill the play or did the QB have time to survey the field, let the patterns develop and identify the coverage breakdowns before the pressure came?

 

Was the pressure from one defender or two? Or more? It is tough to escape from multiple, would be pass rushers.

 

How much time and space did the QB have to recognize the protection breakdown. The center whiffs on a block and the QB has time to react to it. A running back misses a blitz pickup occurs within two steps away from him.

 

All "pressure" is not created equal. Getting rid of the ball and not taking a sack is often a good play. Avoiding it and running for a first down is even better.

 

This ranking is not comprehensive.

[KD in CA]

Maybe the Bills didn't have a chance to get a franchise QB in this draft; and I would have opposed drafting either Newton or Gabbert in the first round. But the fact that the Bills may not have had the opportunity to solve their QB problem does not mean that no QB problem exists!

 

So what's your point? You want to be free to stomp your foot about it for another year? I don't see a lot of people insisting that Fitz is a top flight QB, but he seems to be a serviceable stopgap until the opportunity to draft/sign someone who provides a better long term solution comes along. And that's not going to happen before next year's draft.

[folz]

I'm going to have fun this year watching you guys come around to Fitz the way I did last year.

 

For those of you still saying he's no better than a backup in this league, have you looked

at a list of the current starting QBs recently? Can you really say that all 31 other QBs and at least

one backup somewhere are all better than Fitz? After watching last season, I can't fathom that.

Seriously, would you trade him straight up for Sanchez or Henne? And that's just in our division.

Franchise guys are REALLY hard to come by...and sometimes a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.

 

Flame on...

 

 

 

A little perspective:

 

There are 23 Hall of Fame QBs from the modern era (1945 til now). 23 over 66 years...

add in Favre, Brady, and Peyton who are locks and we have 26 over 66 years. Figuring a 10 year

career avg., that means at any given time there are maybe 4 Hall of Famers playing (and 28 teams

without a HOFer). We were lucky to have one. I hope we eventually get another, but 13 franchises have never had

a hall of famer at QB.

 

Sometimes it seems like posters think there are a few of them in each draft...if that were the case,

then there would be like 132 to 198 Hall of Fame QBs instead of 23. Just because a guy isn't Brady or Manning

doesn't mean that he sucks.

[John from Riverside]

Stevie had 5 dropped passes against the steelers.......

 

Please see my post from earlier in the month...Im rooting for you Stevie

[K-9]

I'm going to have fun this year watching you guys come around to Fitz the way I did last year.

 

For those of you still saying he's no better than a backup in this league, have you looked

at a list of the current starting QBs recently? Can you really say that all 31 other QBs and at least

one backup somewhere are all better than Fitz? After watching last season, I can't fathom that.

Seriously, would you trade him straight up for Sanchez or Henne? And that's just in our division.

Franchise guys are REALLY hard to come by...and sometimes a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.

 

Flame on...

 

 

 

A little perspective:

 

There are 23 Hall of Fame QBs from the modern era (1945 til now). 23 over 66 years...

add in Favre, Brady, and Peyton who are locks and we have 26 over 66 years. Figuring a 10 year

career avg., that means at any given time there are maybe 4 Hall of Famers playing (and 28 teams

without a HOFer). We were lucky to have one. I hope we eventually get another, but 13 franchises have never had

a hall of famer at QB.

 

Sometimes it seems like posters think there are a few of them in each draft...if that were the case,

then there would be like 132 to 198 Hall of Fame QBs instead of 23. Just because a guy isn't Brady or Manning

doesn't mean that he sucks.

 

This is a Hall of Fame post. They are even more rare than HOF QBs.

 

GO BILLS!!!

[Pilsner]

A few things

 

- Stats are for losers (not calling you a loser)

- Results are reflective of the TEAM.....you know...its a team game? Much like when a receiver drops a ball that hits him right in the mits or a running back misses his block forcing Fitz to throw early or move out of the pocket...you know? Stuff like that

- Nice of you to chop a piece out of my post.....it makes it so much better of an arguement for you

 

 

Look....put aside the friggen numbers for just a second please? The bottom line is WILL THESE OTHER PLAYERS PLAY FOR FITZ? He leads by example....he doesnt throw his team under the bus and admits when he made a mistake......he is a gutsy player who takes chances.....he puts his body on the line......and when you hear the rest of this of the offensive players talk they dont want anybody but Fitz behind center......he is the very definition of LEADER

 

And since we dont have a Tom Brady or Payton Manning on the roster.....why not get behind the guy? What choice do you have?

 

I would offer my meaningless opinion, but some here such as John from Hemet have already provided more than I could have.

 

Ok here's my meaningless opinion anyway.

 

Some people like to nitpick to the slightest percentage to make their points. Nitpicking to that degree might be appropriate to the markets but not necessarily always to the NFL. It's a team game. As such many factors should be taken into account. Fitz last year may not have been the most accurate passer but damn, how do you take into account stats such as leadership qualities which bring loyalty and hard work from your teammates? How about the stats of getting an offense to play as a more cohesive unit more so than any previous qb has done since Kelly? Stats like this cannot be put on paper.

 

Sure within the next couple years there might be a qb worth drafting who will be better than Fitz, but it behooves me why some people insist on crapping all over Fitzy.

 

When you go up to a man and say "you know, your stats show you will not amount to squat", when stated to a man with determination and leadership and loyalty behind him, sometimes magical things can happen. We shall see. One thing I know is Fitzy and his loyal teammates are going to give it everything they have. This is a lot more than I've seen of others in this league.

[Pilsner]

What is so confusing about this article that people bring in 100% completely unrelated factors that have absolutely zero to do with what the information being presented by the article? Number of chances because of the D had 100% nothing to do with anything discussed in this article. It has 100% nothing to do with quality of the O line. It has 100% nothing to do with injuries to that O line.

 

The article is a comparison of how a QB performs on each pass attempt when a defender has broken through the pass protection for each QB. In other words, the pass protection has failed each QB in each pass attempt, not just failed Fitz. This has nothing to do with our defense either.

 

Interesting. I should review the topic of the article more. But people still shite on Fitzy more than they should. If viewed with such a single minded view then perhaps the article has credence. But we all know games are determined more than by just what is stated in the article. In a game, how a team's defense does has an effect on how a qb plays as well. We had to play some keep up last season cause our D wasn't up to par. I'm not sure the article took that into enough account.

 

Some people love to say, oh here come the excuses. I don't say that. I say, these are the reasons. Here's how to fix them. Here are the solutions. Anyone with a lesser mindset won't progress. I think our Fitzy has this great mindset.

Edited May 18, 2011 by Pilsner

[thewildrabbit]

As others have noted it is a very flawed study using subjective terms like pressure without defining what that entails. It also does not take into account other factors like how many obvious passing downs a QB faced, not just how many drop-back attempts. QB's forced into 3rd and long situations with no running game will face defenses who sellout for blitzing and defending the pass.

 

Last time I checked receivers drop the ball and can add to the "incompletion" stat. Fitz had a host of first year starters at the WR position last year and there were a lot of dropped passes. Fitz can be inaccurate (or it could be that his rookie receivers sometimes run a poor or the wrong route - I'm not in the huddle), but he usually put the ball where the receiver could make a play on it, he often had to tuck the ball and run to escape pressure with no time to throw and no obvious hot read. Fitz is 4th on the list of rushing QBs and 3rd for rushing yards per attempt. He also sucked at protecting the ball and fumbled and lost the ball more often than anyone would like to see, and I put it out there so folks know I am not just reading all the positives into his play.

 

Fitz looked like a guy under a new offensive coach, in a new offensive system, with rookie receivers, no consistent O-line performance (for a variety of reasons), no TE to speak of, with an offense that couldn't buy a running game, and a defense that couldn't get off the field... I think Chan and Buddy made the right call. At the very least let's wait till they fix some of the broken crap around Fitz and if his play does not improve the team invests in another QB (which they will do anyways just to groom someone for the future).

 

I for one would like to see what Fitz could do with a better supporting cast and a defense that can take some of the burden off the offense and give them more chances with the ball.

 

Just to seal my point here is a video reminder from the distant past of last season. Stevie had what... about 5-6 dropped passes that day? A pressure situation in OT with the Steelers zone blitz (picked up fairly well, but as a QB you know there is a good chance that Harrison is going to nail you after the throw anyway) and there's Fitz, as he did that entire game, standing up to the pressure and delivering a perfect strike. Would we have been talking differently about him if his receiving core had come to play that game and we had trounced the Steelers - I wonder???

newp ... Fitz's detractors would still be whining and complaining he isn't a "franchise" QB....but!

 

The Detroit Lions drafted their franchise QB in Matthew Stafford in 09 to the tune of 41.7 million for 6 years. The guy has played in 10 games in 09, and only 3 games in 2010 all because of injuries he obtained while playing QB for the Lions. 13 games out of 32 because his team failed to protect him properly, they drafted him before they built the line. So what do the Lions do this year, draft another DT-WR-RB and wait till round 7 to draft an OT.

 

Just a simple comparison, the GB Packers also have their "franchise" QB and had a better O line then the Lions 2 years ago and yet drafted an OT in 2010 with their first round draft pick, they won the SB and this year draft another OT with their first pick again. The Packers realize that they need to protect Aaron Rodgers better to win games, after all he was concussed against the Lions last year and missed a game. Now what happens if that concussion was more severe and he misses more then one game, the Packers don't even make the playoffs much less win the SB.

 

Which team does the Buffalo Bills resemble...the Bills talked big before the 2010 NFL draft about making the O line a "priority" and yet took a KR-RB with the first round pick and 2 late round developmental O line players in the 5th and 7th rounds, basically ignoring the O line. then again this year both Nix and Gailey state they need a RT, and then again ignore the position in the draft and draft another developmental project with the 2nd pick in the 4th round.

 

 

 

The Point is, be grateful the Bills didn't draft a "franchise" QB in last years or this years drafts, the kid would have gotten killed last year and would get killed this year as the Buffalo Bills O line is still one of the worst in the league...

 

 

""Demetrius Bell – despite starting every game for the Bills at left tackle – was hardly better than his teammates on the right end of the line. Bell finished the season as the 52nd ranked tackle in 2010. He allowed the fifth most QB hits with 10, which won't win him many favors with Fitzpatrick or whoever else winds up being the quarterback in Buffalo. On a positive note, Bell was tied for ninth place among tackles by only allowing 4 sacks all year (minimum of 850 snaps).""

 

 

http://www.profootba...-buffalo-bills/

 

 

The best FA OT's are Redskins Jammal Brown - Atlanta's Tyson Clabo- NE Matt Light. I doubt the Buffalo Bills will be able to lure any of those three to Buffalo so in all probability the Bills will either use what they have on the roster or obtain another Cornell Green type for RT in free agency.

 

 

Bottom line: you can expect Fitz to be running for his life again this year as the Bills face a tougher schedule then last year, you can expect the Bills to have another losing record this season and draft a so called "franchise" type QB next year because Fitz WON"T survive this season. Then if the Bills continue to fail at building the O line you can expect whatever QB they draft to end up exactly like 1st round pick JP Losman- like 3rd round pick Trent Edwards-like 2nd round pick Brian Brohm.

Edited May 18, 2011 by Harvey lives

[Orton's Arm]

newp ... Fitz's detractors would still be whining and complaining he isn't a "franchise" QB....but!

 

The Detroit Lions drafted their franchise QB in Matthew Stafford in 09 to the tune of 41.7 million for 6 years. The guy has played in 10 games in 09, and only 3 games in 2010 all because of injuries he obtained while playing QB for the Lions. 13 games out of 32 because his team failed to protect him properly, they drafted him before they built the line. So what do the Lions do this year, draft another DT-WR-RB and wait till round 7 to draft an OT.

 

Just a simple comparison, the GB Packers also have their "franchise" QB and had a better O line then the Lions 2 years ago and yet drafted an OT in 2010 with their first round draft pick, they won the SB and this year draft another OT with their first pick again. The Packers realize that they need to protect Aaron Rodgers better to win games, after all he was concussed against the Lions last year and missed a game. Now what happens if that concussion was more severe and he misses more then one game, the Packers don't even make the playoffs much less win the SB.

 

Which team does the Buffalo Bills resemble...the Bills talked big before the 2010 NFL draft about making the O line a "priority" and yet took a KR-RB with the first round pick and 2 late round developmental O line players in the 5th and 7th rounds, basically ignoring the O line. then again this year both Nix and Gailey state they need a RT, and then again ignore the position in the draft and draft another developmental project with the 2nd pick in the 4th round.

 

 

 

The Point is, be grateful the Bills didn't draft a "franchise" QB in last years or this years drafts, the kid would have gotten killed last year and would get killed this year as the Buffalo Bills O line is still one of the worst in the league...

 

 

""Demetrius Bell – despite starting every game for the Bills at left tackle – was hardly better than his teammates on the right end of the line. Bell finished the season as the 52nd ranked tackle in 2010. He allowed the fifth most QB hits with 10, which won't win him many favors with Fitzpatrick or whoever else winds up being the quarterback in Buffalo. On a positive note, Bell was tied for ninth place among tackles by only allowing 4 sacks all year (minimum of 850 snaps).""

 

 

http://www.profootba...-buffalo-bills/

 

 

The best FA OT's are Redskins Jammal Brown - Atlanta's Tyson Clabo- NE Matt Light. I doubt the Buffalo Bills will be able to lure any of those three to Buffalo so in all probability the Bills will either use what they have on the roster or obtain another Cornell Green type for RT in free agency.

 

 

Bottom line: you can expect Fitz to be running for his life again this year as the Bills face a tougher schedule then last year, you can expect the Bills to have another losing record this season and draft a so called "franchise" type QB next year because Fitz WON"T survive this season. Then if the Bills continue to fail at building the O line you can expect whatever QB they draft to end up exactly like 1st round pick JP Losman- like 3rd round pick Trent Edwards-like 2nd round pick Brian Brohm.

I very strongly agree with what I see as the main point of your post. Namely, that if you have a young QB/first round pick on the roster, and if your OL is a mess, you have to get that mess cleaned up. And soon. And you have to make it a priority in the draft. You have to do more than just throw the occasional late round pick at players like Wang!

 

Tampa Bay did the opposite of all that back when they'd drafted Steve Young. Other than Young himself, their early picks during that time period were generally used on defense--especially DBs--as well as on a RB taken first overall. No early picks were used on the OL, even though it was a shambles. After Young had been in the league two years, the Bucs traded him away for a second round pick. That's a good example of what not to do!

 

But! Franchise QBs are very rare--far rarer than a lot of people think. Earlier in this thread someone made that exact point. If you don't have a franchise QB, and if there's one available when your draft pick comes up, you have to take him. Literally no other option should even be considered! If your OL is a mess, then obviously you have to get that taken care of. Drafting a QB makes the OL an even more urgent priority than it otherwise would have been.

 

All this being said, the QBs of the future the Bills acquired during the post-Kelly era would almost certainly have failed no matter what the OL had been like. Steve Young had some success with the 49ers after he'd left Tampa. But Todd Collins, Billy Joe Hobart, Rob Johnson, Doug Flutie, Alex van Pelt, Drew Bledsoe, J.P. Losman, Kelly Holcomb, and Trent Edwards didn't exactly set the world on fire after leaving Buffalo. The only possible exception I see on that list is . . . Rob Johnson! Had the Bills given Johnson enough pass protection, it's actually possible he could have had a solid career. Granted, Johnson's definition of "enough" pass protection is probably different from any other quarterback in the league. But if you'd put him behind a Hall of Fame LT--someone like Tony Boselli in Jacksonville--and if you'd made the rest of the OL like the Jets' offensive line, there's actually a chance Johnson could have met or exceeded the expectations the Bills had when they traded for him. But the combination of a lousy OL and a QB who very clearly needed a lot more pass protection than most to be successful doomed Johnson from the beginning. Especially when it became clear that the Bills' front office was much more interested in using its early picks on DBs and RBs than it was in using them on OTs.

[thewildrabbit]

I very strongly agree with what I see as the main point of your post. Namely, that if you have a young QB/first round pick on the roster, and if your OL is a mess, you have to get that mess cleaned up. And soon. And you have to make it a priority in the draft. You have to do more than just throw the occasional late round pick at players like Wang!

 

Tampa Bay did the opposite of all that back when they'd drafted Steve Young. Other than Young himself, their early picks during that time period were generally used on defense--especially DBs--as well as on a RB taken first overall. No early picks were used on the OL, even though it was a shambles. After Young had been in the league two years, the Bucs traded him away for a second round pick. That's a good example of what not to do!

 

But! Franchise QBs are very rare--far rarer than a lot of people think. Earlier in this thread someone made that exact point. If you don't have a franchise QB, and if there's one available when your draft pick comes up, you have to take him. Literally no other option should even be considered! If your OL is a mess, then obviously you have to get that taken care of. Drafting a QB makes the OL an even more urgent priority than it otherwise would have been.

 

All this being said, the QBs of the future the Bills acquired during the post-Kelly era would almost certainly have failed no matter what the OL had been like. Steve Young had some success with the 49ers after he'd left Tampa. But Todd Collins, Billy Joe Hobart, Rob Johnson, Doug Flutie, Alex van Pelt, Drew Bledsoe, J.P. Losman, Kelly Holcomb, and Trent Edwards didn't exactly set the world on fire after leaving Buffalo. The only possible exception I see on that list is . . . Rob Johnson! Had the Bills given Johnson enough pass protection, it's actually possible he could have had a solid career. Granted, Johnson's definition of "enough" pass protection is probably different from any other quarterback in the league. But if you'd put him behind a Hall of Fame LT--someone like Tony Boselli in Jacksonville--and if you'd made the rest of the OL like the Jets' offensive line, there's actually a chance Johnson could have met or exceeded the expectations the Bills had when they traded for him. But the combination of a lousy OL and a QB who very clearly needed a lot more pass protection than most to be successful doomed Johnson from the beginning. Especially when it became clear that the Bills' front office was much more interested in using its early picks on DBs and RBs than it was in using them on OTs.

yaa, I think the Bills owner is still wincing from that Mike Williams #3 overall in 02, because for some reason this franchise has avoided drafting tackles with early picks since 2002

 

I feel every QB you mentioned in your post would have played much better then they did with their actual stint in the NFL "IF" they had a premier OL in front of them. To bad about the only time the Bills had a premier O line was for OJ and the electric Co, and in the 80's-90's for JK

 

The Buffalo Bills with Jim Kelly in the 80's, one of Polian's first drafts the bills took Left Tackle Will Wilford in the 86 draft with the 2nd first round draft pick, when the USFL went belly up he also brought in Center Kent Hull, the bills already had a #1 draft pick at LG in Jim Richter. Wolford started at RG but then moved to LT in 87.Just look at that 1990 Buffalo Bills O line- #1 pick LT Will Wolford-#1 pick LG Jim Ritcher-# 7 rd NJ Gen C Kent Hull- #11 pick Hou RG John Davis- #11 pick RT Howard "house" Ballard

 

Now granted Hull- Davis- Ballard weren't top draft picks but Hull & Ballard went on to play great and became an all pro's. Hull had an 11 year career with the Bills, and Ballard an 11 year NFL Career 6 years with Buffalo-5 years with Seattle. Davis had a 9 year NFL career. Wolford had a 13 year career 7 with Buffalo- 3 with INdy- 3 with Pittsburgh.

 

The Buffalo Bills haven't had a top O line since Jim Kelly played, that is most likely the reason they keep failing to find a QB who can win consistently.Perhaps the thing that bothers me the most is these so called professional coaches and GM's that teams keep hiring all through out the league, they keep thinking they can win if they have an "elite'' QB, and yet when they finally obtain one they utterly fail to protect him. Teams are so busy trying to put all the pieces together that they forget that when you build anything... you need a solid foundation to start with.

 

 

 

The Buffalo Bills would be better suited to start building the team like the NY Jets did in 2006, instead of bringing in high priced free agent O linemen (that pissed off the pro bowl LT in Jason Peters), they should have built that O line thru the draft. Tell me you wouldn't love to have a Buffalo Bills team that could run the ball down the throats of the NE Patriots like the Baltimore Ravens did in that AFC wildcard game in New England a few years back. Thereby proving that 3 yards and a cloud of dust does still work in today's NFL, you simply have to have a decent QB to manage the game and not turn the ball over.Plus a dominate running attack will keep the ball out of the opposing QB's hands, which in itself is a great thing when you have face Tom Brady 2x a year

Edited May 18, 2011 by Harvey lives

[Orton's Arm]

yaa, I think the Bills owner is still wincing from that Mike Williams #3 overall in 02, because for some reason this franchise has avoided drafting tackles with early picks since 2002

 

I feel every QB you mentioned in your post would have played much better then they did with their actual stint in the NFL "IF" they had a premier OL in front of them. To bad about the only time the Bills had a premier O line was for OJ and the electric Co, and in the 80's-90's for JK

 

The Buffalo Bills with Jim Kelly in the 80's, one of Polian's first drafts the bills took Left Tackle Will Wilford in the 86 draft with the 2nd first round draft pick, when the USFL went belly up he also brought in Center Kent Hull, the bills already had a #1 draft pick at LG in Jim Richter. Wolford started at RG but then moved to LT in 87.Just look at that 1990 Buffalo Bills O line- #1 pick LT Will Wolford-#1 pick LG Jim Ritcher-# 7 rd NJ Gen C Kent Hull- #11 pick Hou RG John Davis- #11 pick RT Howard "house" Ballard

 

Now granted Hull- Davis- Ballard weren't top draft picks but Hull & Ballard went on to play great and became an all pro's. Hull had an 11 year career with the Bills, and Ballard an 11 year NFL Career 6 years with Buffalo-5 years with Seattle. Davis had a 9 year NFL career. Wolford had a 13 year career 7 with Buffalo- 3 with INdy- 3 with Pittsburgh.

 

The Buffalo Bills haven't had a top O line since Jim Kelly played, that is most likely the reason they keep failing to find a QB who can win consistently.Perhaps the thing that bothers me the most is these so called professional coaches and GM's that teams keep hiring all through out the league, they keep thinking they can win if they have an "elite'' QB, and yet when they finally obtain one they utterly fail to protect him. Teams are so busy trying to put all the pieces together that they forget that when you build anything... you need a solid foundation to start with.

 

 

 

The Buffalo Bills would be better suited to start building the team like the NY Jets did in 2006, instead of bringing in high priced free agent O linemen (that pissed off the pro bowl LT in Jason Peters), they should have built that O line thru the draft. Tell me you wouldn't love to have a Buffalo Bills team that could run the ball down the throats of the NE Patriots like the Baltimore Ravens did in that AFC wildcard game in New England a few years back. Thereby proving that 3 yards and a cloud of dust does still work in today's NFL, you simply have to have a decent QB to manage the game and not turn the ball over.Plus a dominate running attack will keep the ball out of the opposing QB's hands, which in itself is a great thing when you have face Tom Brady 2x a year

In an earlier thread, it was determined that over the last 50 years, the Bills had used their first draft pick on a RB 10 different times. (Including nine first rounders.) They'd used their first draft pick on a DB ten different times (all ten in the first round). They'd used their first draft pick on OTs only twice (John Fina and Mike Williams). And not once over the last 50 years have the Bills used their first draft pick on a QB. (Jim Kelly was actually the second of the Bills' two first round picks in 1983; with a TE being the first.)

 

The above paragraph goes a long way toward explaining why Bills fans are so used to seeing second- or third-rate QBs playing behind chopped liver offensive lines. (Of course, bad player evaluation played a role too, as we all know.)

 

Obviously, if the Bills are going to devote more resources to the critical QB and OT positions, they're going to have to devote fewer draft day resources to other positions (specifically DB and RB). What can the Bills do to ween themselves from lavishing their best draft-day resources on RBs and DBs? I suggest the following:

 

1) Do not allow their DBs with the best combination of youth + proven experience to leave via free agency! That happened three point five times over the last decade! We lost Antoine Winfield, a shutdown corner. Then we lost Nate Clements, who was also a very good player. We followed that up by losing Jabari Greer! Now we're in the process of losing Donte Whitner. Of those four players, three were first round picks/the first Bills pick of the draft in which they were taken. As for Greer: the 11th overall pick was used on his intended replacement! If the Bills lock up their best DBs for the duration of their useful careers, they won't have to keep dumping so many early picks into DB positions.

 

2) Don't keep chasing upgrades at the RB position. At least not with early draft picks!! In the mid to late '90s the Bills had used a first round pick on Antowain Smith. In 2001, TD used a second round pick on Travis Henry, thinking Henry might provide an upgrade over Smith. Certainly he didn't offer enough of an upgrade to justify the use of a second round pick! Then in 2003 TD again chased an upgrade at the RB position by using his first round pick on Willis McGahee. McGahee didn't provide enough of an upgrade over Henry to justify the use of a first round pick. Then in 2007, Marv used the 12th overall pick on Marshawn Lynch; hoping to attain a significant upgrade over McGahee. Finally, in 2010, Nix used a first round pick on Spiller, in hopes of obtaining an upgrade over Lynch. Each and every use I've described of a first or second round pick on a RB has either a) turned out to be a mistake, or b) has yet to be decided (Spiller). The Bills should content themselves with later round picks and UDFAs for their RBs; while using their first and second round picks on other, more critical positions associated with longer careers.

 

3) Realize that it's better to have a good QB + good OL + bad DBs + bad RB than it is to have the reverse! If it's a choice between an OT and a DB or RB, the Bills should always choose the OT! Similarly, if there's a legitimate chance to get a franchise QB, the Bills should do that instead of pursuing some RB or DB. Taking Whitner over Cutler was flat-out ridiculous, and was characteristic of the outright stupidity with which this team has often been run! (As an aside, Cutler's put up some excellent numbers behind Chicago's chopped liver OL. This past season, he averaged 7.6 yards per attempt; as compared to 6.8 yards per attempt for Fitzpatricks' 2010 season.)

 

If the Bills embrace the above three realizations, the mistakes which have plagued most of the last 50 years of this franchise can be reversed. It's about time this franchise started doing something!