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coldstorage5

By coldstorage5
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coldstorage5 Rookie

coldstorage5

Posted
Posted (edited)

With almost a perfect storm ( us losing, detroit winning, and other factors) , The Bills are now in the #3 slot. Tied with the Bengals. This is where I envision us staying. If we lose to the Jets( foot pervs). We will be at least earn the #3 pick. Would need the Bengals to beat Baltimore ( doubt it) to move up to 3.

Appently cincy has a better strength of schedule.

Need Denver to beat SD at home and the Bills to lose to get the #2. WOW

 

So after 0-8, then a 4-4 second half. We should get the #3 and the # 35 picks. Hopefully we wont screw it up again.

Edited by coldstorage5
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Tom Veteran

Tom

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Posted (edited)

Ralph will want a QB so we will take a reach in the first round. In the second he will want a speedy WR. After that hopefully Nix will get to fix the damn front 7 on D and get a RT and TE.

I doubt that.....

We'll draft OL/DL/LB & really fix this team in '11 :bag:

Edited by Tom
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bonechiller Rookie

bonechiller

Posted
Posted (edited)

I thought the good news would be we only have to watch this one more week!

 

Don't get me wrong, I love the Bills, but we need help!

( I did see some improvement this year)

I am hoping we can sign some "quality" free agents, and not screw up the draft. Come on off-season so we can at least have some optimism again.

:beer:

Edited by bonechiller
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cåblelady All Pro

cåblelady

Posted
Posted

On Peter King's segment tonight he had some inside news on Andrew Luck. Sounds like the kid is planning to return to college next year. That is according to Jim Harbaugh. So Luck may be available in the 2012 draft.

Yeah, but....that would mean we have to suck again next year. That's askin' alot ya know! *LOL*

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offsides#76FredSmerlas RFA

offsides#76FredSmerlas

Posted
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Root for the following teams to win next week and hopefully the Vikes lose on Tuesday. Buffalo's strength of schedule is close with Cincy. The teams we have played have 1 more win than do the Bengals opponents. If their opponents have a good week next week we can jump them for the third spot in the draft.

 

Falcons, Bucs, Panthers, Saints, Browns, Chargers, Ravens, Steelers

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sirebors Rookie

sirebors

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Ok, I'm confused. I added up the wins and losses for opponents of Cincy and the Bills. Cincy opponents are 131-107 ( .550 winning percentage ) Bills opponents are 139-100 ( .582 winning percentage ). Cincy opponents have 2 more games this week. Bills opponents have 1 more game. I'm not absolutely sure if divisional opponents are supposed to be added once or twice. I added them twice. If this is the case we are far behind Cincy in the tie breaker and they would pick before us. Does anyone know if divisional opponents are added once or twice? This means that at the moment we pick 4th. 1. Carolina 2. Denver 3. Cincy 4. Bills

 

 

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coldstorage5 Rookie

coldstorage5

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Ok, I'm confused. I added up the wins and losses for opponents of Cincy and the Bills. Cincy opponents are 131-107 ( .550 winning percentage ) Bills opponents are 139-100 ( .582 winning percentage ). Cincy opponents have 2 more games this week. Bills opponents have 1 more game. I'm not absolutely sure if divisional opponents are supposed to be added once or twice. I added them twice. If this is the case we are far behind Cincy in the tie breaker and they would pick before us. Does anyone know if divisional opponents are added once or twice? This means that at the moment we pick 4th. 1. Carolina 2. Denver 3. Cincy 4. Bills

 

Hey if you did the math you are right. Another guy told me Cincy has a better SOS.... So I changed my original writeup with the bills picking 4th.... But Denver gas Sand Diego. I can see Denver winning that game at home.

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offsides#76FredSmerlas RFA

offsides#76FredSmerlas

Posted
Posted

Denver and Cincinnati both win; the Bills have the #2 pick after Carolina. The Bills would also pick second in the second round (34).

Denver loses; Cincinnati wins. The Bills have the #3 pick after Carolina and Denver, but would switch with Denver in the second round and still have pick 34.

Denver wins; Cincinnati loses. This is variable; the Bills would either pick 2 (and 35) or 3 (and 34). In order to get the #2 pick, all four results below need to occur.

Denver and Cincinnati both lose. Again, variable; the Bills would either pick 3 (and 35) or 4 (and 34). To get the #3 pick, only three of the four results need to occur.

There are only four games that matter for strength of schedule:

 

Philadelphia beats Minnesota (Tuesday night)

Oakland beats Kansas City

Houston beats Jacksonville

Indianapolis beats Tennessee

So, the teams to root for are Denver and Cincinnati, and then Philly, Oakland, Houston, and Indy if Cincinnati loses.

 

I got this from a guy on Buffalo Rumblings- HOPE HE IS CORRECT!

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AxelRipper RFA

AxelRipper

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But (I see everyone has a short memory, but bear with me) What if we win?

 

Why I say this: Jets have clinched playoffs, and they cant win division. Sanchez is already slightly injured, so good chances he and some other starters could be resting. It will truly be a full garbage time game, so we have a good chance a-la Colts game last year.

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I hate the Bills ! Rookie

I hate the Bills !

Posted
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Good with the 2nd pick assuming this is correct if we lose next week to the jets ( Start Brohm) and jet letr him hand off to Fred Jackson to try to get his 1000 yards.

 

We dont want to win this game because 5 wins really drops us from 2nd to a higher number because there are several teams with 5 wins thanks to Denver and Detroit winning today.

 

We stay at 4 wins and we pick 2nd.

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machinegun12 Rookie

machinegun12

Posted
Posted (edited)

Won't the h2h count with us and Cincy or is that not worked into the draft slot?

I'm not sure how it works...but I know the team with the EASIER strength of schedule gets the better pick while the team with the tougher one gets the worse one. So with that thinking, it would seem to me since Cincy lost to us, they would get the better pick. They try and give it to the team that needs more help, but I think it's a lousy rule.

Edited by machinegun12
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Ramius All Pro

Ramius

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Posted

Here is the breakdown. If we lose next week we draft 2,3 or 4. If we win 8 or 9. A win sucks at this point. This explains it... http://www.wgr550.com/BUSCAGLIA--If-the-NFL-Draft-Happened-Today---/8854211

 

Not exactly. The author is stupidly assuming that all of the 5-win teams will lose next week. If we win we could drop as far as 9, but we wont automatically drop that far with a win.

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Thoner7 Veteran

Thoner7

Posted
Posted (edited)

Here is the breakdown as it is now:

Carolina picks 1st.

Bills, Cincy, Denver all at 4 wins.

Ariz, Cle, Dal, Det, Hou, SF, and Minn all at 5 wins (with Minn having 2 games left.)

 

Obviously, the Bills will finish with 4 or 5 wins, so we want as many 5 win teams to get to 6 wins as possible, and as many 4 win teams to get to 5 wins as possible. That way, win or lose, the Bills have the highest possible pick in either scenario.

 

However 4 of the current 5 win teams play each other next week, SF plays Ariz and Det plays Minn so 2 will get to 6 wins and 2 will stay at 5 (unless there is a tie which would be best case scenario as then both teams would draft behind Buffalo) Because Minn has 2 games left we should root for them to win on Tues night (extremely unlikely), get to 6 wins, then lose to Det, who would then also get to 6 wins. I am not certain but if Philly win, they *may* lock up a 1st round bye with home field out of reach so then they may play the JVs v Dal the alst week of the year who could then get to 6 wins.

 

The Jets likely will play the JVs next week, but like I said the Eagles may do the same vrs Dal (6 wins with a win)

 

Call me crazy but Denver is going to beat SD it will be moot if we win.

 

Pit and Balt play Cle and Cincy respectively. Both Pit and Balt have clinched a playoff spot but will be competing for the division and a home playoff game. Depending on if one of those games is at 1, and another is bumped to 4 or 8pm, the other team may have the opportunity to play the JVs but who knows.

 

I predict the Bills pick 2 or 3 with a loss (Denver wins and/or Cincy has a better SOS) But worst case is 4th overall with a loss.

 

With a win, and with Dal v Philly, Cle v Pit, Cincy v Balt, Houston v Jax, we may see 1 or 2 of those teams winning which would put them behind Buffalo regardless of a win (maybe not Cincy though that would be up to the SOS) I could see Dal winning and either Houston or Cincy.

 

Assuming the Bills win, and one of the Dal/Cle/Houston teams wins, the Bills would draft 8.

 

Absolute best case scenario 2nd

Absolute worst case scenario 9 (so technically we are just as bad or worse than last year respective to the rest of the league)

Likely pick with a loss 3rd

Likely pick with a win 7 or 8, prob. 8th.

 

My vote is lose to the Jets and move up from 8th to 3rd. To put that in perspective, and according to the draft value trade chart, moving from 8 to 3 is equivalent to the 4th pick in both the 2nd and 3rd rounds. So, is beating the back up Jets more important to this team getting better and improving, or is the equivalent to a top 5 selection in both the 2nd and 3rd rounds more important? Thats a REAL easy one for me to answer.

Edited by Thoner7
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Beerball Hall of Famer

Beerball

Posted
Posted

I'm not sure how it works...but I know the team with the EASIER strength of schedule gets the better pick while the team with the tougher one gets the worse one. So with that thinking, it would seem to me since Cincy lost to us, they would get the better pick. They try and give it to the team that needs more help, but I think it's a lousy rule.

I am reasonably certain that head to head does not matter for draft position. IIRC there was a team we lost to last season and they picked before us even though we ended up with the same record. (but today I'm to lazy to go look it up)

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JStranger76 Veteran

JStranger76

Posted
Posted

If people can't see how losing this game would make us better off long term than no game ever will. The learning how to win, building a winning culture crap just doesn't hold any water whatsoever this time. If we lose, we are basically certain of having either the QB or D-lineman of our choice. Look, nobody hates the Jets more than me. I'd love to watch Rex Ryan die on the sideline from being so fat and ugly and I mean that. But I'll take one more loss this time.......

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mattsox Veteran

mattsox

Posted
Posted

The good news is: the patriots* are stranded in Rochester. Now THAT is fuuny! :thumbsup:

 

The Best new I Heard is Terrance Pegula wants to buy the Bills too. Oh and btw, he already bought the Sabres... Everyone will find this out soon...

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section122 Veteran

section122

Posted
Posted

The team that beat us but still picked ahead of us with the same record was the niners. All along I've wanted the bills to win every Sunday... except this week. Seriously the ppl in the win every week prob agree but if not look at the above post mentioning how much it takes to move up. This is a meaningless game to win that would do nothing but hurt this team long term. This alone may be motivation for the jets to play the jv squad. Can't believe I'm saying this but I hope the bills lose this week (wow that hurts to say)

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offsides#76FredSmerlas RFA

offsides#76FredSmerlas

Posted
Posted

I am reasonably certain that head to head does not matter for draft position. IIRC there was a team we lost to last season and they picked before us even though we ended up with the same record. (but today I'm to lazy to go look it up)

It goes by strength of schedule unless the strength of schedule is a tie. Then they look at head to head.

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Red Veteran

Red

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Too rally and compete like they did for most of the weeks following the bye (yesterday and the Minnesota games notwithstanding), and to still be able to pick in the Top 5 makes me really happy.

 

I also liked yesterday's article that out of all of our 11 free agents- only 2 or 3 are really worth saving (Poz, Whitner, and maybe Florence).

 

So, providing Modrak is not still employed with the Bills, we should have an awesome draft in April.

 

I like defensive line/ pass-rusher/ run-stuffer, LB, and offensive tackle.

 

I'd love it if we could find another Gronkowski TE in the later rounds, too.

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Cash Veteran

Cash

Posted
Posted

It goes by strength of schedule unless the strength of schedule is a tie. Then they look at head to head.

 

The first part is correct, but head to head is never factored in. (Presumably to prevent a team throwing a game for draft-pick tiebreaker.) If strength of schedule is tied, the 2nd tiebreaker is a coin flip.

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Hapless Bills Fan Hall of Famer

Hapless Bills Fan

Posted
Posted

Ralph will want a QB so we will take a reach in the first round. In the second he will want a speedy WR. After that hopefully Nix will get to fix the damn front 7 on D and get a RT and TE.

 

Gawd, this post makes me feel so sad. Because I'm afraid it might be true.

 

The thing is, I don't think it was Ralph insisting we draft all those DBs with high picks.

So maybe he is not as meddling as we think?

 

Hopeful

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Lenigmusx RFA

Lenigmusx

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Posted

Root for the following teams to win next week and hopefully the Vikes lose on Tuesday. Buffalo's strength of schedule is close with Cincy. The teams we have played have 1 more win than do the Bengals opponents. If their opponents have a good week next week we can jump them for the third spot in the draft.

 

Falcons, Bucs, Panthers, Saints, Browns, Chargers, Ravens, Steelers

You are all forgetting we won the head to head with Cincy...

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kclor Probation

kclor

Posted
Posted

If we win, I think the best we can do is 8th and the worst is 12th.

 

But (I see everyone has a short memory, but bear with me) What if we win?

 

Why I say this: Jets have clinched playoffs, and they cant win division. Sanchez is already slightly injured, so good chances he and some other starters could be resting. It will truly be a full garbage time game, so we have a good chance a-la Colts game last year.

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EastRochBillsfan RFA

EastRochBillsfan

Posted
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Too rally and compete like they did for most of the weeks following the bye (yesterday and the Minnesota games notwithstanding), and to still be able to pick in the Top 5 makes me really happy.

 

I also liked yesterday's article that out of all of our 11 free agents- only 2 or 3 are really worth saving (Poz, Whitner, and maybe Florence).

 

So, providing Modrak is not still employed with the Bills, we should have an awesome draft in April. I like defensive line/ pass-rusher/ run-stuffer, LB, and offensive tackle.

 

I'd love it if we could find another Gronkowski TE in the later rounds, too.

 

I am pretty sure most of the scouting has been done for this years draft. So let's just hope it wasn't Modrak who pushed for Maybin or any of the other first round draft blunders. Personally I don't think he's the problem. I am more inclined to think jauron, levy, Donahoe were more the culprits but that's just my opinion.

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