Ever notice how every draft has at least 3-4 "franchise" QBs?

[PromoTheRobot]

Do you recall how the Bills had to draft Matt Leinert? How about Brady Quinn? Alex Smith? JaMarcus Russel?

 

Yes every year there are draftniks who would bet one of their kidneys that <insert QB here> is the next can't-miss franchise QB. At least 2 every year! And yet we know from history that it is a rare year when more than one QB in a draft ever develops into a decent starter.

 

So If the Bills are going to draft #1, prove to me that we won't wind up drafting the next Ryan Leaf, Rick Mirer or JP Losman? Which one of you are going guarantee me that Locker, Luck or Mallett will become a hall-of-famer?

 

BTW, I'm not debating that we need a QB. I'm asking which one is guaranteed not to disappoint us.

 

PTR

Edited October 11, 2010 by PromoTheRobot

[Phil Hansen Forever]

We will have to trust that Chan can pick a good one. He passed on all of the "can't miss" QB's this year, and it appears he was right.

[PromoTheRobot]

We will have to trust that Chan can pick a good one. He passed on all of the "can't miss" QB's this year, and it appears he was right.

I think Nix will be making the final decision though I'm sure Chan will have plenty to say. My point is that even with the #1 pick, a franchise QB is not guaranteed.

 

PTR

[DrDawkinstein]

Do you recall how the Bills had to draft Matt Leinert? How about Brady Quinn? Jimmy Clausen? JaMarcus Russel? Tim Tebow? Colt McCoy?

 

Yes every year there are draftniks who would bet one of their kidneys that <insert QB here> is the next can't-miss franchise QB. At least 2 every year! And yet we know from history that it is a rare year when more than one QB in a draft ever develops into a decent starter.

 

So If the Bills are going to draft #1, prove to me that we won't wind up drafting the next Ryan Leaf, Rick Mirer or JP Losman? Which one of you are going guarantee me that Locker, Luck or Mallett will become a hall-of-famer?

 

BTW, I'm not debating that we need a QB. I'm asking which one is guaranteed not to disappoint us.

 

PTR

 

nothing in life is guaranteed. i know you know that. but you still have to go out and take a chance anyways.

 

imo, id personally like to promise you that Mallett is a "cant miss" pick. i could be wrong, but i feel the odds are heavily in my favor with that one.

 

just like you selected a few names from 20+ years of draft history, id say that he has a very good chance to be the next Matt Ryan, Drew Bledsoe, or Philip Rivers. sure, plenty of guys dont live up to the hype, but plenty do as well.

 

as far as your question of "which one is guaranteed to not disappoint us", the answer is an obvious none. even if the QB chosen plays well, people will still be here complaining about him. maybe he threw for 330 yards and 3 TDs today, but that throw on his one INT was unforgivable, etc, etc.

[TheChimp]

We will have to trust that Chan Ralph can pick a good one. He passed on all of the "can't miss" QB's this year, and it appears he was right.

FIXED

[Phil Hansen Forever]

FIXED

Okay smartass!

[PromoTheRobot]

nothing in life is guaranteed. i know you know that. but you still have to go out and take a chance anyways.

 

imo, id personally like to promise you that Mallett is a "cant miss" pick. i could be wrong, but i feel the odds are heavily in my favor with that one.

 

just like you selected a few names from 20+ years of draft history, id say that he has a very good chance to be the next Matt Ryan, Drew Bledsoe, or Philip Rivers. sure, plenty of guys dont live up to the hype, but plenty do as well.

 

as far as your question of "which one is guaranteed to not disappoint us", the answer is an obvious none. even if the QB chosen plays well, people will still be here complaining about him. maybe he threw for 330 yards and 3 TDs today, but that throw on his one INT was unforgivable, etc, etc.

 

There is about a 20% chance that a QB drafted #1 overall will amount to anything. That's why I think people will go batschitt if Nix doesn't draft a QB, even if he thinks they all aren't worth a #1 pick. I mean look at the posts now! People are still upset we passed on Clausen and he's been terrible.

 

PTR

[....lybob]

The only player you mention who was considered a can't miss guy was JaMarcus Russel.

[PromoTheRobot]

The only player you mention who was considered a can't miss guy was JaMarcus Russel.

Alex Smith? Matt Leinert? I seem to recall a lot of drooling over these names.

 

PTR

[JPS]

What if NONE of the 2011 QB prospects carry a franchise grade? I think the marketing folks at OBD will take a QB no matter what and that scares me. What if LT or Derrick Thomas is there? Haloti Ngata? Reggie White?

 

I'll puke (again) if the Bills draft a QB for any other reason than he's the best player in the draft.

[marsadale]

Do you recall how the Bills had to draft Matt Leinert? How about Brady Quinn? Alex Smith? JaMarcus Russel?

 

Yes every year there are draftniks who would bet one of their kidneys that <insert QB here> is the next can't-miss franchise QB. At least 2 every year! And yet we know from history that it is a rare year when more than one QB in a draft ever develops into a decent starter.

 

So If the Bills are going to draft #1, prove to me that we won't wind up drafting the next Ryan Leaf, Rick Mirer or JP Losman? Which one of you are going guarantee me that Locker, Luck or Mallett will become a hall-of-famer?

 

BTW, I'm not debating that we need a QB. I'm asking which one is guaranteed not to disappoint us.

 

PTR

Let's say we just take a guy that we think can play a little. Take a Trent Dilfer in the third round, get him a line to play behind for gods sake. Im still hoping we can find a guy that can play right tackle before the years over. We should have jammed Calloway onto the practice squad imo.

[Cash]

Do you recall how the Bills had to draft Matt Leinert? How about Brady Quinn? Alex Smith? JaMarcus Russel?

 

Yes every year there are draftniks who would bet one of their kidneys that <insert QB here> is the next can't-miss franchise QB. At least 2 every year! And yet we know from history that it is a rare year when more than one QB in a draft ever develops into a decent starter.

 

So If the Bills are going to draft #1, prove to me that we won't wind up drafting the next Ryan Leaf, Rick Mirer or JP Losman? Which one of you are going guarantee me that Locker, Luck or Mallett will become a hall-of-famer?

 

BTW, I'm not debating that we need a QB. I'm asking which one is guaranteed not to disappoint us.

 

PTR

 

There is no sure thing. Every single QB in the draft has some level of risk associated with him, and there's a chance that he'll be a bust. But you miss 100% of the shots you don't take. I'd rather have a 50% chance at a franchise QB for 10+ years than a guarantee of mediocre QB play.

 

The bottom line is that it's so important to have a great QB, and the reward is so great, that teams are willing to take a lot of risk to try to get one. This is one of the main reasons QBs bust at a higher rate than less important positions. The potential payoff justifies the risk. The two positions least likely to bust are safety and guard, because they're relatively unimportant. Teams won't take a S or G in the first round unless they're extremely confident he'll be a good starter.

 

So neither I nor anyone else can guarantee you anything, but we can hope, and it's a pretty realistic hope, because all 3 of the guys you mentioned have a lot of upside. They all have some red flags, too. I think Luck has the fewest red flags by a decent margin, but I still wouldn't dream of calling him a guaranteed Pro Bowler. (Which is a more fair criterion than Hall of Famer. There's only 23 QBs in the Hall of Fame.) Even Peyton Manning, arguably the closest thing to a guaranteed QB prospect in NFL history, had some uncertainty around him when he was drafted.

[Ray]

I think Nix will be making the final decision though I'm sure Chan will have plenty to say. My point is that even with the #1 pick, a franchise QB is not guaranteed.

 

PTR

 

You are 100% correct and it can put us back another 3 years or so waiting for a QB to develop and worse if it is the wrong one. We could take Tim Couch and then Brady Quinn and be the Browns etc....

Remember those QBs were all the rage.

We need a QB and if you hit the right one your franchise is set for more than a decade as a great QB covers up so many other deficiencies. But what scares me is that are more misses than hits on all of those QBs.

[BobChalmers]

There is about a 20% chance that a QB drafted #1 overall will amount to anything. That's why I think people will go batschitt if Nix doesn't draft a QB, even if he thinks they all aren't worth a #1 pick. I mean look at the posts now! People are still upset we passed on Clausen and he's been terrible.

 

PTR

 

Actually, at #1 overall it's more like 50/50 that they turn out very well. Obviously there's only one Peyton Manning or John Elway every 10 years or so, but about half of the others have been really good too.

 

There's a list of all the draft picks by position out there if you search for it - I did a couple weeks back - sorry I don't have the link handy.

[The Senator]

Nix will covet Mallett. Doesn't mean we'll lose every game to guarantee we get him, but he'll be the one Nix will want.

[DreReed83]

That term "Franchise QB" is thrown around WAAY too often. I still only consider 4 or 5 QB's even worthy of having that title (Peyton Mannning, Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, and Philip Rivers).

 

2 of them playing in San Diego when Nix was there. Just sayin...

[lets_go_bills]

All we can do is hope the QB we draft turns into the next Peyton Manning.

 

I think Luck is the best of the bunch.

 

Locker is a great athlete but very raw and unpolished as a passer.

 

Mallet has the physical tools but struggles with his footwork, decision making and accuracy.

 

Luck has it all, he's the prototypical pocket passer with all the intangibles.

[The Senator]

All we can do is hope the QB we draft turns into the next Peyton Manning.

 

I think Luck is the best of the bunch.

 

Locker is a great athlete but very raw and unpolished as a passer.

 

Mallet has the physical tools but struggles with his footwork, decision making and accuracy.

 

Luck has it all, he's the prototypical pocket passer with all the intangibles.

A 69% completion ratio and 170 QB rating = 'stuggling'?

 

You need to stop reading (and quoting) scouting reports, and start looking at stats and watching these guys play.

Edited October 11, 2010 by The Senator

[Phil Hansen Forever]

All we can do is hope the QB we draft turns into the next Peyton Manning.

 

Except Peyton wasn't that good out of the starting blocks, he had to mature first. We need another Marino.

[Dr. K]

Let's say we just take a guy that we think can play a little. Take a Trent Dilfer in the third round, get him a line to play behind for gods sake. Im still hoping we can find a guy that can play right tackle before the years over. We should have jammed Calloway onto the practice squad imo.

 

We've already got Trent Dilfer playing for us. His name is Ryan Fitzpatrick. Or maybe he's Rich Gannon. Or Brad Johnson.

 

You get what I'm saying?

[lets_go_bills]

A 69% completion ratio and 170 QB rating = 'stuggling'?

 

You need to stop reading (and quoting) scouting reports, and start looking at stats and watching these guys play.

 

He rolls out and moves too much. I don't like his footwork and that concerns me. WHen you look at stats, they can be misldeading. This is just my humble opinion, it's not the definitive final word on Mallett.

Edited October 11, 2010 by lets_go_bills

[SouthGeorgiaBillsFan]

He rolls out and moves too much. I don't like his footwork and that concerns me. WHen you look at stats, they can be misldeading. This is just my humble opinion, it's not the definitive final word on Mallett.

 

I'm not really sure how you think his stats are misleading. He's putting up incredible numbers against top flight defenses. But the main reason we should want Mallett is because he's a senior. I don't care how big of a prospect it is, I don't want to draft a QB coming out early.

[bbb]

Actually, at #1 overall it's more like 50/50 that they turn out very well. Obviously there's only one Peyton Manning or John Elway every 10 years or so, but about half of the others have been really good too.

 

There's a list of all the draft picks by position out there if you search for it - I did a couple weeks back - sorry I don't have the link handy.

 

Aikman, Bradshaw, Namath (AFL), Steve Young (USFL), Plunkett and Eli all have rings, too.

[Spiderweb]

Except Peyton wasn't that good out of the starting blocks, he had to mature first. We need another Marino.

 

Peyton threw something like 26 picks his first year, and did has his struggles, but the team he joined was pretty poor and he did still manage to out perform probably half the starting QB's out there. Marino had the fortune of joining a better team than Peyton, which is why he enjoyed faster success.

 

Give me Peyton or his clone.

[Andy1]

"But the main reason we should want Mallett is because he's a senior. I don't care how big of a prospect it is, I don't want to draft a QB coming out early. "

 

I agree. In addition to stats, experience and other measurable traits, I would like to see the next QB we draft have a burning competitive desire with an absolute hatred of losing and strong leadership qualities. A bonus would be if he "fits" personality wise with the Buffalo community. IMO Trent Edwards lacked in the competitiveness and leadership categories and never really "fit" this team.

 

On the surface, I don't know if Mallettt has these other intangible traits.

[/dev/null]

What if NONE of the 2011 QB prospects carry a franchise grade? I think the marketing folks at OBD will take a QB no matter what and that scares me. What if LT or Derrick Thomas is there? Haloti Ngata? Reggie White?

 

I'd be pretty scared if Derrick Thomas or Reggie White were in next years draft. It would mean the dead have risen.

 

That said, it's much more likely Thomas/White declare for 2012

[Geno Smith's Arm]

Ever notice how many teams without a franchise QB suck for years on end until they find one?

[DrDawkinstein]

What if NONE of the 2011 QB prospects carry a franchise grade? I think the marketing folks at OBD will take a QB no matter what and that scares me. What if LT or Derrick Thomas is there? Haloti Ngata? Reggie White?

 

I'll puke (again) if the Bills draft a QB for any other reason than he's the best player in the draft.

 

QB and OT were both mentioned last offseason as being areas of major interest for the Bills.

 

When it was our turn to pick, the QB and OT we had rated that high were gone. The Bills (Nix) did NOT reach based on positional need. They took the best talent available.

 

If what you're saying was true this year, the Bills would have ended up with Clausen or someone at #9 last year, or even in the second round. They didn't. I wouldn't worry too much about it.

[thewildrabbit]

Do you recall how the Bills had to draft Matt Leinert? How about Brady Quinn? Alex Smith? JaMarcus Russel?

 

Yes every year there are draftniks who would bet one of their kidneys that <insert QB here> is the next can't-miss franchise QB. At least 2 every year! And yet we know from history that it is a rare year when more than one QB in a draft ever develops into a decent starter.

 

So If the Bills are going to draft #1, prove to me that we won't wind up drafting the next Ryan Leaf, Rick Mirer or JP Losman? Which one of you are going guarantee me that Locker, Luck or Mallett will become a hall-of-famer?

 

BTW, I'm not debating that we need a QB. I'm asking which one is guaranteed not to disappoint us.

 

PTR

All you need to know is that the fans will come in droves to see the NEW QB, forget the O line and how bad the team was this year....forget how bad the coaching is, forget how many fails this franchise has had in the last ten drafts

 

THE BILLS WILL HAVE A NEW QB !!! yay!

[flmike]

Take a good look at Christian Ponder when you get the chance. He's actually a graduate student, has great legs, good vision and a decent arm. What I like is his leadership and poise under pressure. If he had a defense, he would be playing for a title this year.

[Buckeye Eric]

I would trade a top 5 pick in a heartbeat. They are unproven talent that want way too much money

[Big Turk]

Yes, like that one draft that had Elway, Marino, Kelly and O'Brien in it?

 

How could there be 4 good QB's in it?? Not possible...

[PromoTheRobot]

Yes, like that one draft that had Elway, Marino, Kelly and O'Brien in it?

 

How could there be 4 good QB's in it?? Not possible...

That was what? 1984? 2004 had a couple of good QB's so I guess it happens EVERY 20 YEARS!! Thank you for proving my point.

 

PTR

[Geno Smith's Arm]

All you need to know is that the fans will come in droves to see the NEW QB, forget the O line and how bad the team was this year....forget how bad the coaching is, forget how many fails this franchise has had in the last ten drafts

 

THE BILLS WILL HAVE A NEW QB !!! yay!

 

Insert "new left tackle" or "new linebacker" instead of quarterback, and the sentence sounds better? If there is a worthy QB they would be fools NOT to take him, it's the most important player on a team.

 

Yes, these Bills suck, but quarterback has been the biggest missing piece for the longest amount of time. They have only had any real success when they have had an elite QB (Kelly, if you needed the name), the other parts are important too, but none as much as the quarterback.

[finknottle]

Actually, at #1 overall it's more like 50/50 that they turn out very well. Obviously there's only one Peyton Manning or John Elway every 10 years or so, but about half of the others have been really good too.

 

There's a list of all the draft picks by position out there if you search for it - I did a couple weeks back - sorry I don't have the link handy.

 

 

Except that is more like 1 chance in 3 that he will pan out as a decent quarterback. That's a pretty bad bet - even the best (Eli Manning, Rivers, Palmer) aren't showing themselves as more than adequate. Here are the "can't miss" quarterbacks drafted 1999-2008, defined as being picked in the top 10.

 

+? Ryan (3, 2008)

- Russel (1, 2007)

-? Young (6, 2006)

- Leinart (10, 2006)

-? Alex Smith (1, 2005)

+? Eli Manning (1, 2004)

+? Rivers (4, 2004)

+ Palmer (1, 2003)

- Leftwich (7, 2003)

- Carr (1, 2002)

- Harrington (3, 2002)

-? Vick (1, 2001)

- Couch (1, 1999)

+ McNabb (2, 1999)

- Akili Smith (3, 1999)

 

This looks pretty grim to me, especially when you consider the cap space.

 

Edit: For #1 over all, it does look like 50-50.

Edited October 12, 2010 by finknottle

[Geno Smith's Arm]

I would trade a top 5 pick in a heartbeat. They are unproven talent that want way too much money

 

You aren't a GM. They aren't easy to trade. All the talent is unproven (the idea is that you have first choice, and your scouts know the right guy to pick).

 

That was what? 1984? 2004 had a couple of good QB's so I guess it happens EVERY 20 YEARS!! Thank you for proving my point.

 

PTR

 

How about this point, some teams have NEVER been to a Super Bowl? Or this one; some teams have had to wait 20 years between Super Bowls? A team needs to have alot of things go right to collect a team good enough to win a Super Bowl. MOST taken have taken the path of drafting QB's in the first round and hoping that they found a good one.

 

The Bills have only drafted 2 Qb's in the first round. One lead them to the glory years of the franchise, the other crapped out. I think it's time to roll the dice again.....

[sllib olaffub]

I agree, as well, that there is seldom a can't miss prospect. But, I am also confident that if the Bills had the first pick, they'd get a franchise QB out of it. Last year, the experts knew Sam Bradford was the franchise QB of the class, and they are proving right. If you look back, usually the misses on first round QB's come when the guy was arguably the second or third best QB. But, in classes where there are three or four really top notch QB's - like when Rothlisberger, Manning, and Rivers came out - you really can't go wrong, and I think this upcoming draft will pan out like that. Sure, Rothlisberger and Rivers aren't arguably the best in the NFL, but they are dynamic enough, good enough, to win you games, to give you a fighting chance, to carry a team, even. I think this upcoming draft will be one of the deepest in ten to twenty years at QB.

 

It is the only way I can look at our F.O. with respect, is to believe, as was suggested on WGR, that last year they knew they were going to get their guy at QB in 2011, so they picked up their RB to go with him when they could. What about the O-line? I'm hoping, as some people have mentioned, that the FA class this coming year is so deep that we'll be able to fill a lot of needs, there, as well.

 

I know it is a stretch - but I've suggested it before - this staff might be really giving themselves a year of evaluations before they put together their team they hope to win with.

[NaPolian8693]

You guys are looking at it all wrong. Instead, look at QBs in the NFL that stand to have good careers that last many seasons and feature a Pro Bowl.

 

Philip Rivers - 1st round

Peyton Manning - 1st

Donovan McNabb - 1st

Eli Manning - 1st

Carson Palmer - 1st

Aaron Rodgers - 1st

Matt Ryan - 1st

Jay Cutler - 1st

Mike Vick - 1st

Brett Favre - 2nd

Drew Brees - 2nd

Matt Schaub - 3rd

Tom Brady - 6th

Tony Romo - Undrafted

 

 

Potential:

Matthew Stafford - 1st

Sam Bradford - 1st

Joe Flacco - 1st

Mark Sanchez - 1st

Josh Freeman - 1st

Kyle Orton - 4th

 

Good QBs tend to come from the first round more often than not.

[Orton's Arm]

You guys are looking at it all wrong. Instead, look at QBs in the NFL that stand to have good careers that last many seasons and feature a Pro Bowl.

 

Philip Rivers - 1st round

Peyton Manning - 1st

Donovan McNabb - 1st

Eli Manning - 1st

Carson Palmer - 1st

Aaron Rodgers - 1st

Matt Ryan - 1st

Jay Cutler - 1st

Mike Vick - 1st

Brett Favre - 2nd

Drew Brees - 2nd

Matt Schaub - 3rd

Tom Brady - 6th

Tony Romo - Undrafted

 

 

Potential:

Matthew Stafford - 1st

Sam Bradford - 1st

Joe Flacco - 1st

Mark Sanchez - 1st

Josh Freeman - 1st

Kyle Orton - 4th

 

Good QBs tend to come from the first round more often than not.

Now that was a solid post! I couldn't agree more: if you need a franchise QB, your odds of getting one outside the first round are slim.

 

If you have a Trent Dilfer at quarterback, you'd better hope your defense and offensive line are as good as the ones the Ravens had back in 2000. Because if they're not, you're not coming away with a Super Bowl ring.

[BoBills20]

Manning, Rivers, Brees, Rodgers, Brady, Romo, Roethlisberger are the established franchise Qbs. There are also the up and comings like Henne (like what i see from him), Ryan, Flacco, etc.

 

Id rather go with a guy from a nfl like college system at a winning college (Mallet) before i go to the guy with the tools that cant win (locker)