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We’ll see. I remember defenses adjusting to Allen (e.g. preventing him from rolling out right). Texans also play a division winner schedule this year instead of a cupcake last place in the NFL schedule. In the playoffs he looked good against the Browns, but the blowout victory was because Flacco threw TWO pick-6 interceptions. And the Ravens completely shut Stroud down. He only passed for a single first down the second half of that game while the Ravens pulled away. I expect teams to take away the deep stuff from Stroud this year, and force him to dink and dunk them (similar to how defenses play Allen and Mahomes).

can't we restructure josh in season, i think a few others also. at one point the bills were looking to rework Milano's deal, as well as a possible other look at some established veterans just to space it out some. if i undestood the tea leaves right this lost urgency because of the willingness of Knox to go so team friendly

I think you will see more of what we saw last year once Brady took over, with an uptick in target volume in which I expect his 45 targets will rise somewhere between 85-110 targets. I think Shakir will be either 2nd or 3rd in targets on the team this year just depending on how many targets end up with Keon and Kincaid. Personally, I think Kincaid is going to probably lead the team in targets. They are going to move Shakir around inside and out and put him positions to utilize his excellent YAC ability similar to how SF does with Deebo (minus all the rush carries). I think Allen and the staff have a lot trust in him, and he is the only WR with any experience with Allen giving him a leg up on trust and timing with Allen. However...as I say that, there is an interesting scenario developing here with the guys behind those 3 above, and that is all 3 of Samuel, Hollins and Claypool are making early big impressions on all the coaches and Allen. That 4th option in the passing game (that isn't a RB) typically doesn't put up a lot of production unless injuries have helped elevate someone's production like Davis in his first 2 seasons. 2023 - Harty - 15 rec, 150 yds 2022 - Shakir - 10 rec, 161 yds 2021 - Davis - 35 rec, 549 yds (but Davis was not your typical WR4, he was backing up Sanders who got hurt which is where Davis production really came in once he got starters targets with Sanders out and then more shared WR2 role with Sanders when he got back as the offense was playing better with Davis than Sanders). If you look at the person who was more the WR4 role it was McKenzie who put up 20 rec, 178 yds. 2020 - Davis - 35 rec, 599 yds (but again, Davis only got this much production because John Brown missed a lot of games, he wasn't getting this production as a WR4 which again was more McKenzie who put up 30 rec, 282 yds). Now we know Samuel is going to get a decent amount of targets too, especially after paying him and signing him 3 years, not to mention nothing but positive buzz and confidence in him has been coming out. But what happens if Hollins or especially Claypool continue to impress and make a case to be more involved in the offense? Where are all the targets going to come from? Bills had 545 total targets last year with Diggs taking up 160 of them. We know that Keon (who will start at the X) will get a decent amount of targets this year. It won't be Diggs like, but he should be somewhere between 75 and 100 targets himself. Kincaid saw 91 targets last year, safe to say he probably sees an increase, so I would guess 100-110 targets. Those 2 alone are probably close to or just over 200 targets, so lets just call it 200 targets. Shakir probably sees 85-100+ targets, so lets call that 90 targets. Last year, Cook got 54 of the 86 targets that went to RB's last year...I think with the addition of Davis and bringing Ty back, we might see that total target share jump to 100 for the RB room. So that would be 190 targets between Shakir and the RB's. This leaves us 155 targets to spread out to Samuel, and guys like Knox, Hollins, Claypool, and MVS of which at least 2 of those WR's are making this roster, possibly all 3. If you figure Samuel gets 75 of them, that leaves 80 targets for guys like Knox, Hollins, Claypool, and MVS. Which would make sense...unless someone like Claypool or Hollins impresses enough to be a bigger part of the offense. I mean Claypool has the talent to start here if he can get his head right. I love Shakir, and think he will be an excellent part of our offense this year. But, I do think Hollins and Claypool are wildcards where if one of them continues to impress could carve out a bigger role than what we have typically seen deeper on our WR depth chart in a true rotational spread the ball around system. And if one of them does, it will be interesting to see how the targets shift around amongst Keon, Kincaid, Shakir and the RB's to account for it. Funny, working on this post just made me amped to see this squad out there. We may not be "top heavy" with a proven elite WR at the moment, but we are very deep with playmakers and quality. I think Allen might have the most fun of his career this year throwing to this group.

I'd like to see him used as Deebo lite. Return punts, used in the backfield and mostly out of the slot. He's got the build to be a bully against DBs, and he's quick enough to get past the LBs. He was that guy at Boise and he's got the ability to open a lot underneath for Josh and let Kincaid and Samuel be the intermediate guys

He looks like the next Josh Allen, to me. Big arm, confidence, can make any throw, and an upbeat, positive and effective leader that his team seems to really like, respect and rally around. But I do hope I am wrong!

He really reminds me of a shorter version of Andre Reed out there in terms of his overall route versatility—take a look at his highlights tape from last year and you’ll see what I mean—Allen finds him in a variety of different ways, and then often there is good YAC shown. So I expect more of the same, just higher output with Diggs gone. https://youtu.be/mPcLM0Zz1zQ?feature=shared

Josh accounted for 21% of the team's rushing yards under Dorsey. It was 30% under Brady. Dorsey's offense averaged 26.2 points and Brady was 27.1. The same personnel group with a healthy OL managed to score 1 point more per game, but it took Josh running it more. If they're committed to not running Josh as much, it's a big question where they'll replace that production. Because the running game was less efficient last year under Brady even with Josh carrying it more often.

Actually this is the first time I have really ever really followed the Bills off-season closely. What drew me in this winter was seeing how Beane was going to navigate the salary cap mess he created. I've been hoping for a youth movement for years and I've been advocating for him to invest draft capital in skill players for years and starting with the Cook he finally reached the same decision. It also helped that my Hoosiers basketball team and the Sabres both sucked this winter, freeing up my time to invest in Beane's retooling. I'm completely impressed with what Beane has done this off-season. I know people are upset about Diggs (I'm not) and still hope for more WR help (It's not coming) and more depth in other areas, but look at all he's accomplished. 1) He got us out of cap hell for the foreseeable future. 2) He has reshaped the roster from one of the oldest in the NFL to the middle of the pack in one off-season. 3) He got younger, cheaper (and imho more talented) while maintaining 16 of 22 starters. You could also argue that Rapp was also a starter by year end and that Miller is returning to a starting role. 4) He completely re-tooled the WR and S rooms. Gone are WRs Diggs, Davis, Harty and Sherfield. In with Coleman, Samuel, Hollins, MVS and Claypool. At S, the aging Hyde and Poyer were replaced with Bishop and former KC starter Edwards. 2024 marked the first time Beane has invested premium draft picks on either WR or S. If we are being honest these overhauls were overdue. Hyde and Poyer were significantly diminished players in 2023 and Davis, Harty and Sherfield were terrible last year. Once we looked at the falloff in Digg's play, it also becamse obvious why he was traded as well. McD is a great DB coach and I expect the trio of Edwards, Rapp and Bishop will outperform the 2023 versions of Hyde and Poyer. I'm also excited to see the pass targets spread more evenly over a larger and more talented WR room. 5) Some position groups are better than ever. Our RBs are the best we've had since Beane became GM. The combo of Cook and Davis should be really fun. The LBs, TEs and OL are the deepest that I can remember. I'm excited for the coming season. I like the new look Bills. They are younger, more talented and have a much higher upside. They will have some growing pains, but I'm excited to see Josh play without being tethered to feeding Diggs.

With the continued news of J Jefferson and the rumors of trade still going on, I probably should not have overlooked your suggestion. J Jefferson was not extended by Minn, rumors floated that Minn wanted to move up and get Naber. J Jeff probably wouldn't mind leaving Minn and the rookie QB . Florio has stated Minn could be open to trading him if the offer is right. The Bills have an excellent trade history with Minnesota. Neither Florio or the Connor Orr article mention what the right offer is exactly. The Bills would need to unload draft capital, have around $20M to take J Jeff on, and then give J Jeff the biggest WR to date. All are theoretically possible. Give up a 1st and 2nd, have the Tre money + Josh restructure + Oliver restructure, then backload a massive contract for about 6 years. Wouldn't that be something.

He had the best offensive line he ever has had and they were also the healthiest in the league. He didn't have elite weapons and playmakers but he had good ones. You talk as if Allen had the 2023 Carolina Panthers talent level on offense.

they would then have to extend him in order to get him under this years cap. Seems like the kind of thing they are openly going away from at the moment. Hard to understand why Dan Quinn would want to trade away a guy like allen at this point in the year, seems like that would have been something they would have done before the draft. They would be sick if something happens to one of the other two tackles and they traded away Allen. Maybe next offseason when he has a year left on his deal that would make more sense. having said that if someone was willing to move a 2 or 3 for him it would be really hard to pass up I imagine.

none of your replies here are making sense to me. What am I missing? why would it be shocking that Allen, one of the most gifted quarterbacks in scrambling and taking off and running, why would that trait coupled with his passing not lead to greater success? why do you think the bills will not start slow? They lost the opening game of the season in two of the last three years. They could easily start slow. so, are you going to provide the numbers? Or are you going to make me look them up and post them? I already provided the rushing attempts breakdown.

Probably less now, I understand why Patriot fans basically didn't give a flying f*ck about the offseason for two decades now. If you have a truly great QB you will be in it every year and while some years the roster will be better and others worse, you have a guy who you know can deliver the goods and give you a shot regardless. In a weird way its made it less fun just simply as during the drought days or 2017-20 as the team was on the way up hope sprang eternal and you were excited to see could they take a next step. At this point were at the last step which is winning the SB so the excitement only starts kicking once the season starts for me at this point. Also this offseason had to be lack luster as the cap got cleaned up so any major moves were limited which dampens excitement too. Next offseason if they trade for a WR or sign a name brand FA I am sure my excitement would go up a bit, but again still in the same boat because we got Josh. As for the NFL itself its probably the same. I think the draft is a week too late now and it drags things a little too long at this point.

This is very funny because this is evidence it’s more about Allen running than the OC resulting in wins. I don’t think they are gonna start slow. Huh

but I thought you were concerned about Allen being an also ran in the postseason because the bills can never secure the one seed? You’re not gonna get the one if you start slow. They have done a good job of ending the season on significant winning streaks. but it’s been the start of the season or an October /November stretch that has killed them.

Allen doesn't need to be Superman. He has enough talent to win with this unit and other QB's have won without an All Star cast of offensive personnel.

Saw this posted on another Bills site. Any interest? If you google Jonathan Allen, several "trade rumors" have the Washington Commanders potentially trading Jonathan Allen, DL. The Commanders just drafted Jerzhan Newton, DT, and gave Daron Payne a $90 million 4 year deal, so they may want to free up some Cap. Joe Marino thinks a 3rd and a 6th could be fair trade value - if the Commanders wanted to deal him, and Beane was interested (FYI the Miami Dolphins are one team sniffing around Allen) Allen had 10 sacks, 8 sacks, and 6 sacks over the last 3 years. He is 29 years old, 300lbs and 6'3".

No i think i pay more attention now . The past incompetence of the Bills front office & coaching during the drought was well less then exciting . There were a couple of exciting signings like to me Spiller, & later on Mario but not a lot of high expectations back then . I did like the Gailey coaching hire but that didn't work out either . Now with Beane at the helm you never know what he's going to pull out of his sleeve and this season given what they did with the Diggs trade Gabe leaving i wanted to see who the future wide outs were going to be that Beane brought in in the draft . I think he could have gotten Keon & should have gotten 1 other really good wide out but with the others he's brought in i think they will be fine once everyone gets the offense down & Josh gets a bit more comfortable with the new weapons he has to work with . But i'm much more in tune with what the Bills do now than i use to be . GO BILLS !!!!

If who Collins had throwing to him his first 2 seasons and who Keon has throwing to him his first 2 has anything to do with it Keon should put up much better numbers as long as his chemistry with Josh comes around quickly .

FC pointed out nothing. Allen ran a similar number of times to end each of the last three seasons. Furthermore: 2021: end of season 5 game winning streak 2022: end of season 8 game winning streak 2023: end of season 6 game winning streak wins over a month or two are short streaks? That's half the NFL regular season. I don't believe it is accurate to define those winning streaks as short term success. Without those winning streaks the Bills seasons are drastically different.

If you only care about wins over a month or two and give no consideration to how they are happening - it’s often a fast track ignoring problems that will catch up to you. as FC points out, we were winning but on the back of Josh running well and struggling in the passing game. Is that sustainable long term or just a quick bandaid? when fitz was getting every bounce and started with a lot of wins but a lot of underlying red flags, did those catch up for the “I only care about wins” crowd? yea, it’s one thing to say it about a random game here or there but eventually the other stats matter and if you are winning more than the stats indicate you should- there’s a good chance of regressing back to the outcomes other stats would predict (especially with questionable passing stats)

Which is the anomaly below? 2021: 6.1 vs. 8.7 2022: 7.6 vs. 8 2023: 4.8 vs. 9 Those are Allen's rushing attempts per game in each of the last three seasons. The latter number in each year are his attempts in the final 7 games of that regular season. The former number are the attempts per game prior to the final seven. Allen rushing more later in the season is nothing new and he didn't run significantly more in the final seven games then anything we saw in 2021 or 2022 seasons. What was significantly different was how few times he ran the ball to start the 2023 season. What?

Athe difference in Collin’s third season has a name : CJ Stroud. Coleman starts with Allen. If he is not a good WR by the middle of the upcoming season, he likely will never be too tier.

It's a good point about bigger corners. I read the commentary from Thad earlier in the thread, and I have to say I have no idea how Elam's (larger) size impairs his fit in this defense. Douglas fits in this defense. Benford, who is probably about 20 pounds heavier than Elam and the same height, fits in this defense. Josh Norman has long fit in this defense. And so have smaller corners like Levi Wallace. So, contrary to Thad's point, I'm a little lost as to how size dictates fit at that position in this D, and I too am hopeful that Elam can figure things out.

Well I do agree that Allen rushing that much is not ideal. But I also felt they tried to neuter Allen prior to that which I think is even worse. They need to let Allen be Allen, and the mere threat of his running makes defense have to play him different. So you want the threat to still be real while also keeping him from avg 9 carries a game. Remember, Brady was working out of Dorsey’s offense, so let’s see what he does this year with Allen and the array of weapons on this offense. I don’t think Allen will be running as much, but I also think they restrict Allen from instinctively taking off the way it felt under Dorsey.