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So we've all heard it. Josh Allen needs to change his game, become more of a pocket passer, less inclined to take off running. His longevity depends on it. Does it? The sample is small, and many of the leaders on the yards per game board are still young and active. But it's not promising. Bottom line: since 2000, no true "running QB" has ever lasted as an effective starter past Age 33. [Exception: weird, inexplicable Randall Cunningham comeback at 35, but that happened in 1998.] Historically, you'd probably expect most QBs to run out of gas in their mid-30s. But we're now in the age of Brady, Brees, Rivers, Rodgers, Manning(s) playing into their late 30s or 40s, and yet no actual running (not "mobile" or "scrambling" - we're talking about the guys who pull it down and take off downfield) QB has made it past 33. Many were done in their 20s. These are the post-2000 QBs who either averaged 30 yards per game running over at least a couple seasons of starts, or who had at least one 500+ yard rushing season or multiple 400+ yard rushing seasons in their careers. (No, Rodgers and Mahomes have never had even a single 400 yard rushing season) 1. Lamar Jackson. 63.4 rushing yards per game. 26 years old. Still active. Poor injury history. 2. Justin Fields. 57.9 yards per game. 24 years old. Too soon to tell. 3. Mike Vick. 42.7 yards per game. Basically done as a starter by Age 33 season (even with missing 2 years due to suspension) 4. Jalen Hurts. 42.2 yards per game. 24. Too soon to tell. 5. Josh Allen. 40.1 yards per game. 27. Too soon to tell. 6. Kyler Murray. 38.7 yards per game. 25. Too soon to tell 7. Cam Newton. 38.0 yards per game. Effectively done as a starter by Age 30 season. 8. Colin Kaepernick. 33.3 yards per game. Effectively done as a starter by Age 28. [**Big Asterisk] 9. Robert Griffin III. 32.3 yards per game. Effectively done as a starter by Age 24. Devastating knee injury. 10. Daniel Jones. 31.6 yards per game. 26. Too soon to tell. 11. Deshaun Watson. 30.9 yards per game. 27 Too soon to tell (but not looking promising) [*Little Asterisk] 12. Randall Cunningham. 30.6 yards per game. Effectively done as a starter at 31. But then with a weird, non-running QB career year at 35. Then done again at 36. 13. Russell Wilson. 28.7 yards per game, but four 500 yard-plus rushing seasons by age 29, including one 800 yard season. Effectively done at 33 (unless there's a surprise return to form under Sean Payton?) 14. Kordell Stewart. 23 yards per game [value decreased by early "slash" years], with four 400+, one 500+ rushing seson by age 29. Done as a starter by Age 30. 15. Tyrod Taylor. 25.6 yards per game, but three 400+ and one 500+ yard rushing season with the Bills. Constant injuries since. Done as a starter by Age 28. 13. Donovan McNabb. 20.7 yards per game, but three 400+ and one 600+ yard rushing seasons by age 26. Effectively done as a starter by Age 34. 14. Steve McNair. 22.3 yards per game, but five 400+ yard, one 500+ yard, and one 600+ yard rushing seasons by age 29. Effectively done as a starter by Age 34. 15. Daunte Culpepper. 25.3 yards per game, but five 400+ seasons, one 600+ rushing season by age 27. Done as a starter by age 28. 16. Vince Young. 24.3 yards per game, but rookie season 500+ yards rushing. Done completely by age 28. [*I feel like he should get the world's tiniest asterisk, but I'm not sure why] THE GREAT EXCEPTION 17. Steve Young (included here even though he'd retired after 1999, and was before everyone else's time). 25.1 yards per game, but four 400+yard, one 500+ yard rushing seasons by age 32. Made it all the way to Age 37 as a top-flight starter, even rushing for 454 yards that year. Like I said: The Great Exception.

So tired of hearing about the Mafia, our weather advantage, crowd noise, blah blah blah. KC was not affected whatsoever and had zero false starts i think. The *only* reason Buffalo is a dangerous playoff team is Josh Allen and even he can't get over the hump in our great home field advantage. Just so frustrated. KC never loses at home in Arrowhead.

So if you can’t see how grounded and embarrassed that Josh Allen is after Dorsey getting fired.Even with tge turn overs I still think Josh is a elite and our once in a lifetime quarterback.The team rose with him and will eventually get a superbowl with him.Look at the whole team and who clearly is the best on it? it is Josh hands down.As great as Diggs is he is the one pouting and having public outburst’s.Three games this year Allen in the last few minutes went to the sidelines with a hard fought lead and watched the defense blow a game on weird sequences.Never once did Josh say “well I left with a lead and wedid our job”.Through this slump and bad play,even some his Josh has shown he is a true leader and Buffalo should be happy he is a Buffalo Bill… GO BILLS!!!!

Allen finds receivers when they get open, at a pace higher than any other QB in the NFL. The problem is that they simply aren’t getting open! @Maine-iac and I were debating this a few days ago. I have been shouting from the roof tops that Bills receiving options do not gain much separation. The argument I get back is simply “Yes they do! Allen just isn’t throwing to the guys that are open”. Here is a chart, plotted through Week 17, that shows Allen has the highest % of throws to open receivers, despite his receiving options being 27th in the NFL in separation (in totality of all QB’s plotted). Also, notice how open Lamar’s receivers are… z

I’m still trying to figure out why the clock stopped at 3:12 after Allen’s amazing 3rd and 13 run. The clock stopped and the Dolphins were able to preserve a timeout which ultimately lead to them to having almost two full minutes for the last drive. Bills could have run the clock down to under 1:30 if the Dolphins burned a timeout after the amazing Allen run. Tirico mentioned that the Ramsey hold caused the clock to stop, but if that’s true couldn’t the Bills have just declined the 5 yard penalty to force the timeout, taking the ball on the Bills 49 rather than the Dolphins 46? The five yards did not put them into field goal range. Was it clock mismanagement by McD to accept the Ramsey penalty? 3rd & 13 at BUF 34 (3:12 - 4th) (Shotgun) J.Allen scrambles right end to BUF 49 for 15 yards (C.Wilkins). PENALTY on MIA-J.Ramsey, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at BUF 49. Does anyone know the answer?

I’m sitting home with COVID😩 I think it was brought on by Monday night’s debacle. Anyway, I’ve been bingeing all 22’s and game footage of the last 3 years. In watching that tape I realized that Dorsey has stopped using one of Josh’s greatest strengths, the deep middle crossing pattern. Cole Beasley use to provide such a great underneath security blanket that I think it allowed some of these routes and route trees to develop differently. Much like Brett Favre, Josh can throw a seam route better than almost anyone in the history of the game. How many seam TD’s or even seam routes have we seen this year? None. Why, I think we don’t have anyone one good enough or designated to be the slot outlet in that Beasley role. Until physically taken away by coverage schemes that abused him because of his small stature Beasley was like the Bills Steve Curr the clutch shooter you could go to when Diggs (The Bills Jordan) wasn’t open. KC physically took that away in the two playoff games (Gabe Stepped up though in the 13 seconds game). When Daboll left Dorsey abandon that concept. Could that player could be Harty or Kincaid? McKenzie couldn’t handle it he lacked the discipline to mirror Josh. You need a special player with Basketball like instincts in the slot. Someone who mirrors the QB from the slot. Josh needs this player. I would argue Kelce Swift is this player for Mahomes as “Me Gronk Me catch ball” was this player for Brady. It elevates his entire game and opens up the field. If coupled with under the center Play Action and running game this offense could be indefensible. Josh is different though at the QB position Mahomes and Brady are point guard QB’s. Josh is more like Scotty Pippen a small forward who distributes… The offense is different when it runs through someone with a unique skill set like his. He will refuse the 5-7 yard gimme initially. However when you have a player in the Beasley role it allows him to come back to it after he exhausts the chunk play option. This safety net mitigates risk and promotes both offensive rhythm and sustained drives. This is the difference between Daboll and Dorsey in a nut shell. Josh’s thinks he’s an 11 personnel run and shoot QB. He can be for short periods but he needs his Steve Curr to sustain points when Jordan’s (Diggs is covered) shot is off. If this was coupled with the under center PA run/pass concepts we flashed out of 12 earlier this year this offense could be unstoppable. This year the RPO option route trees where the entire world knows the 3 options require super human QB skills that are not sustainable. A couple great examples of the Daboll concept games are Rams v Bills 2020 wk 3 and KC v Bills 2021. Perhaps the 2021 KC game gave Spags the film to realize he had to physically shutdown Beasley. If Joe Brady really does a deep dive I think he can add the deep mid crossers and slot mirror concept back without flipping the playbook or terminology. Another point- I think Gabe stepping up in the 13 seconds game created a false sense that the slot mirror concept was unnecessary. I think Dorsey and Allen thought they could just open things up…apparently that is not the case. I just don’t understand why they have been so stubborn and I think this above all else is why Diggs is pissed. He is super smart and knows so he is like Jordan before the triangle worked… but his clock for a championship is ticking. I would be pissed too if I knew there was an easy button but no one acknowledged it… (*****Post Now Ribbed for more pleasure…)😂

Low Positive? Sorry, he doesn’t live here anymore: I’m not sure what everyone else felt when they watched the game today, but by Q2 it felt like I wasn’t watching the same team/Josh as a week ago. I’m not sure exactly what the biggest contributing factor was, but Joe Brady seems to understand (at least for week one) how to get plays in on time, to scheme against a very tough opponent, make adjustments, and to let Josh do his thing. I don’t know what I expected to see exactly in week 1 of Joe Brady’s offense, but that deep ball coming in with a perfect throw against arguably the best CB in football made me feel all sorts of things. Seeing Josh fired up against a division rival was encouraging, and I feel like if this guy was here a month ago we destroy NE and hang a few more against Denver. Kincaid, Cook, and Shakir doing big things tonight was further proof that Joey B knows we have weapons and drew up a plan that got them involved right away. He seemed to know that Diggs was capable to make plays but likely to be double covered most of the night, so he worked around that. Another showing like this for Shakir and Davis may be seeing a few less snaps (especially as he didn’t do anything this evening). Again, it’s only 1 game, but it’s encouraging to win - and win decisively. Also- perhaps Josh is the bizarro-Samson. He needs a fresh cut to be superhuman, not long hair lol.

He gets separation, has great hands, and very good YAC. Mismatch for opposing D's, and when Knox comes back will be even more of a threat. I see a guy w/ potential to be like Kelce. Not AS good, since Kelce is the GOAT or close to it - but the same kind of 24x7 outlet for Allen. Thoughts?

I already liked this guy way more than Dorsey. Now I love this guy way more than Dorsey. He actually tries to fix the problems instead of just status quo hoping people stop making mistakes.

The Josh Allen we are seeing right now, is not who we saw the first 5 years off his career. Even when he had bad stretches under Daboll, he still would come out fired up the next series. He was still ready to risk it all. His fire is GONE. When he scores now, he just jogs off the field. Example: After we took the lead with 2 minutes to go last night, he started to just jog off the field (zero celebration). Spencer Brown tried to get him excited and lifted him into the air. Three years ago he’d be screaming his head off and amping everyone up. Now his facial express to being hoisted after a go-ahead TD is the face of someone who looks like they’re battling depression. And no, this is not a deceptive screenshot - this is how he looked the entire post TD celebration. The fire is gone and, Simon, I apologize for the salty language, but that friggin terrifies me!!! Where has this gone? And this? And this? And this? I genuinely believe that McDermott’s “never too high, never too low” mentality has absolutely zombified what made Allen special. I think it’s no coincidence that McD and Daboll didn’t get along, and Josh is becoming more and more like this as the months pass without Daboll as his coach.

I’m gonna preface this post by acknowledging that this will be widely unpopular. People will say I am having a knee jerk reaction to the last few weeks. But, with the shortcomings of the offense, not just this season but last as well, I gotta think the blame does solely lie with just McD and Dorsey. Allen has clearly been an issue too. Missing open opportunities because he either looks and throws right away or simply only looks for Diggs. Allen has also committed a ludicrous amount of turnovers. Situationally, he’s been pretty poor this year when it comes to decision making. On the other end of things, he’s getting older. He will be 28 next season and is only continuing to take more lumps. He will only get slower, more injury prone and probably not progress mentally. He’s shown as a pure pocket passer he is simply above average. Look at Cam around the 8 year mark. Really started to take a dive. Josh will be going into his 7th season next year. If this team continues on this current trajectory, i think it’s fair to assume there will be fairly significant changes not only personnel- wise, but coaching-wise as well with a very new OC at the least. With josh seemingly reaching the end of his prime, is that really a time we want to be reloading/re-building? My thought is, while Josh still has value, is trade him. I’d love if we could to the bears for their 2 firsts next year, one in 2025 and a second in 2024. We use those picks to draft a QB as well as Marvin Harrison jr. We could rebuild with a QB on a rookie contract, get the best WR in college to go with Diggs and Dalton Kinkaid, and on top of that we’d be able to use the other picks to build up our o line. We focus on offense next year and shift to defense the following. Now all of this would be contingent on new GM, new staff. im saddened to propose this because I love josh. Seems like a great dude and great for Buffalo. But at a certain point, we gotta start thinking that maybe Josh isn’t the one to win us a SB. Chuck your spears as appropriate.

Listen, I know how important the #2 seed can be. I don't want to downplay that at all. However, if some of these reports out there are true and Josh is battling an injury that needs rest, would it make more sense to give Josh, and maybe some others, the week off? I'm sure Hyde's neck could use a break too. I'm sure this will get me flamed, but if playing on the road for the playoffs means that Josh is even 20% healthier, is that worth it? I'm not saying I would. Maybe play him for a bit and see how he feels. But I care more about a healthier Josh because we don't win without him. (Minus the Dallas game)

Or is it the Snow Plow? Fun video.

If Josh does not find some way to cut down on the turnovers he will likely continue to be both a Bills game killer and may even severely stain his career. Josh is no doubt a first ballot HOF talent. Josh also has the talent to win multiple Lombardi’s Whether he achieves these outcomes may largely depend on his ability to cut down on the turnovers. In the Bills losses this year Josh has been a turnover factory. yes, batted balls, strips and the like are not always his “fault.” However, the statistics don’t lie. Josh is boom or bust and lately he has been far more prone to bust. We as fans will have zero impact here. However, I wonder if Brady as a new OC will literally and figuratively help Josh get a handle on the situation. Josh has turned around weaknesses in his game in many ways. Turnovers now remain the last most obvious hurdle where he needs to do so. As a contrarian point, Josh is not among the worst at interception % among the all time “greats.” It’s apples and oranges due to the prevalence of the pass game in the modern era but on a straight up % Jim Kelly and Dan Marino were worse. For a better comparison to “modern era” QB’s Aaron Rogers is far better (and can be a gunslinger). https://www.pro-football-reference.com/leaders/pass_int_perc_career.htm Your thoughts?

Aaron Rodgers (27) Matt Prater (19) Josh Allen (12) Russell Wilson (12) Justin Tucker (12) Cool stuff

UPDATE: Controversial referee Brad Allen has been named as alternate Referee for the game. Post is further down the thread here. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ We also had Cheffers in Week 1 at the Jets and Week 14 at Kansas City. (And Week 1 in 2022 at the Rams.) Referee only. Full crew to be announced later. From the website: https://www.footballzebras.com/2024/01/nfl-assigns-officiating-crews-for-the-2023-24-wild-card-playoffs/ "AFC Wild Card: Steelers at Bills, 1 p.m. CBS PARAMOUNT+ Carl Cheffers is the referee, who is in his 24rd season and 16th as referee. This is Cheffers’s 18th postseason assignment, including 5 Wild Card Playoffs, 7 Divisional Playoffs, 3 Conference Championships, and Super Bowls LI and LV. Both of his Super Bowl assignments were as a referee." ------------------ Other WC games: Saturday: CLE-HOU - Clay Martin MIA-KC - Brad Rogers Sunday: GB-DAL - Ron Torbert LAR-DET - Craig Wrolstad Monday: PHL-TB - Adrian Hill

is it me? The days of Josh, with that burning competitive fire in his eyes…going up and down the bench supporting the D, talking to the O line and talking to receivers seem to be gone. After a 4th down, he goes back to the bench, looks at the IPad, and then just sits and watches the Jumbotron quietly. Meanwhile, Diggs is doing what Stef does, fire burning and supporting others. There is something that’s changed in him.

Says it was one of the weakest taunting calls he's ever seen. Linked to clip: 1:33:34 mark.

Even the Jets are ahead of us in the hunt. I said this game was practically a must win. I also said if the Bills lost this game a WC is unlikely and the Bills would need to win the division to make the playoffs. There is zero room for error now and we are going to need help. We lose the head to head against a wild card competitor. We have too many conference losses against other teams in the hunt. Buffalo is likely going to have to win out or lose maybe one and get some help. Yes I know 4 of those teams are from the same division and they will somewhat beat each other up, but we still have no room for error.

Sorry, I couldn’t find a thread about Allen’s running on the first page. Here it is, my unqualified, unstudied, “gut feeling” revelation for the day: Allen’s off season was so football poor, that his fat-tass can’t run like he used to. I remember one attempt at a hurdle way early in the season, and he couldn’t get his fat legs over the guy. That’s his mind saying HELL YES!! and his body saying, Boy, we should’ve dedicated our off season to track, field, & film room. Our JA17 can’t get off the ground, and I bet he’s an XL step slower from the get-go, trending down as the run continues. Allen got everything wrong this off season. No one in the organization guided him?? Was this just losers leading losers in the OS?? Allen is out of shape and has been since last season ended. He thought this year… he’d let himself go, but want to play more by instinct.. and those two things are counterintuitive. We might just have a mental mini on our hands here, folks. He’s got $250m and he can’t get over his high school girlfriend (when we can assume he stepped out on her..). I think McDermott’s weird comments revolve around he’s ***** off season, professionally. They have nothing to do with his personal/non football life. And just maybe, McD has Pegula’s ear when he’s explaining how disappointing Allen’s off season was, and how much it’s directly hurting this team.. Imagine.. Terry, I had to play that defense and have that offense called against Denver because Josh is so unprepared and so turnover prone that it’s our only hope..! There’s a complete narrative for this team, people. We should be a goddam sticky for most believable, agreed upon theories.

Serious question.

Just watched the lions game. When Josh eventually slows down, or his knees feel like mine do, we still have a shot. Stafford can make any throw you need. i hope we win now, but we'll always be in any game for the foreseeable future.

I found this interesting. And of course the rest of the ESPN 🤡's yuck it up a bit later in the segment, but this has been my stance on Josh for forever. All of the idiots with an ax to grind continually spew the same crap, on their same crap shows, pandering to their same crap audience. Josh is a top 2-5 QB in this league, 5 being the absolute basement. They constantly act like he is the one costing this team W's. They don't talk about the 3 games he's led his team to a lead in the final 2 minutes, only to have McDermott's defense piss it away. No, it's his 1 INT two quarters before that which caused them to lose. Idiots. This team would have, AT THE MOST, 3 wins this year without him. At the most. Allen is not blameless. He's not perfect. But let's not act like he's not out here setting records in history of the NFL for things like total TD's, completing 68% of his passes this year, and leading the league in total TD's.

Hopefully he at least gets a Limited in tomorrow and another Limited or Full on Friday. Something to keep an eye on. He's a warrior and I doubt they'll shut him down unless they absolutely have to. But another DNP tomorrow would be concerning.

Any QB’s turnover issue really requires more nuanced analysis than is generally given. The REAL turnover problem is the “judgement” turnovers, which generally fall into two categories - interceptions thrown where the QB doesn’t read the coverages, throws interception on a pass play that is covered. A subset of this is just an errant throw to an open receiver. The second category is holding the ball too long, not sensing and/or reading the pressure - resulting in a strip sack. For all the national media whining about Allen’s turnovers after Monday’s game misses the point that after 4 quarters of play Allen had a grand total of ONE judgement turnover - his 2nd interception. His first “ interception” was a perfectly thrown pass to an open WR. A non judgement turnover is generally less problematic- fumbled snap, ball punched out on a designed QB run etc. These things happen to all players, and a QB’s judgement really not an issues in these type of TOS. BUT - Allen has a fairly unique and troubling problem with non judgement turnovers. I can only speculate that he gets too hyped up in big pressure situations & fails to execute routine things. Minnesota game last year - ball on 1 yard line, game in hand. Allen has taken thousands of snaps in his career, but at this very big moment fumbles a routine snap that went directly into his hands. Jets game this year, big moment, in control of game in the 4th quarter and he fumbles away a routine shotgun snap. Again he has handled thousands of these, but again a pressure moment and he messes up the routine. And Mondays game - again he completely mishandles a routine handoff in a huge, pressure moment. This is a pattern here, and it’s a BIG (and fairly unique) problem.