BillsVet

When does someone here or on, say ESPN, start doing at 2024 re-draft? After all, we have so much data now gleaned from this huge sample size of 3 games.

WR isn't a priority to them as proven this off-season and in 2021-23. Lot of 1 year deal end of career types or late round picks...until they traded down twice to "nab" Keon Coleman. Always funny to me why, in 2019-20, they were focused on finding quality WR's to see if Josh was the real deal...then decided from 2021-2023 they didn't need to keep developing the position. Ironic about the defense...only Tre, Hyde, and Von Miller were lost for serious time from 2020-22 (aside from Star taking a "Covid" year in 2020). People think it's the norm to remain that healthy and it's not. They were extremely fortunate.

Buffalo's offense in points per drive: 2017: 1.57 2018: 1.39 2019: 1.63 2020: 2.80 2021: 2.56 2022: 2.52 2023: 2.37 (Dorsey - 2.45 / Brady 2.27 - regular season / reg. season and playoffs - 2.40) 2024: 2.90

Yeah...last year at a surface level it was obvious in the 9 games Brady took over that the passing game had declined and rushing game had improved...in terms of total yards. But that's obviously not a barometer to measure the offense in sum. I don't have the time to look up all these other metrics, but I would expect the rush yards per attempt (minus Josh), the YPA, and points per drive were lower. But that's not as big an issue (yet) because the defensive plan against Miami worked pretty close I'm sure to what they needed and the offense got their production from Josh versus AZ. Next tier stuff is what Warren Sharp put out yesterday...how predictable the offense has been in normal situations. I wasn't really surprised that, by their definition (whatever that is) that Buffalo was the most predictable team running it in the NFL while under center. There will be more data points to draw more of a conclusion of whether complementary football as McD/Brady/et al. desire is as much a net positive...or negative.

Stats don't always tell the story and, in this debate about the run-pass ratio, current NFL trends, etc. their wins have become closer games. Under Daboll Buffalo won 20 of their 24 regular season games by 8 or more points. With Brady, 9 of their 18 games during his tenure were by the same margin. Buffalo's 8 wins under Brady (and the sample size is small) 3 were by 8 or more points. No one stat proves right or wrong. Strength of schedule factors into this, but I'm interested to see whether the trend continues of closer margin wins.

Mahomes through 2 games has an 8.3 ypa this season. That's in-line with previous seasons save for 2023 And one thing I've learned here is you can draw conclusions after 2 games.

Jauron had an inordinate say into that roster, so he deserves more than his share of blame for those teams. Of course, it didn't help that those late RW years were notoriously cheap and solid players were replaced with high draft picks. Agree on the skilled personnel deficit on offense...which is now being built against Josh's strengths. This is what you want to believe. For example in 2022 according to Warren Sharp's analysis, Josh was t-12th in completion percentage of passes over 20 yards at 38%. Mahomes was 10th at 41% with Geno Smith leading the league at 49%. I'd say his accuracy is underrated and yet, still developing. Brady had better offensive weapons, especially after '07 with Moss, Welker, then Gronkowski, et al. which made throwing short to intermediate passes a whole different advantage. It's why I get tired of seeing posters who sympathize with McD's emphasis on a more risk-averse strategy. Yeah, throwing the ball downfield is more risky than say running it 50-55% and throwing short more. But it makes you predictable and defenses adapt.

I think far too often posters are talking past each other because we have different perspectives. I've noticed a penchant for people to review what's happened and use that as evidence things will be as good or better. That's not necessarily my approach. Not saying you're only that either Alpha. I see others who review games with the added focus on trying to anticipate what's coming. One way I look at a team is their talent...and that's what prompted a 100+ page thread about the WR room which discussed this ad infinitum. My anticipation is...I'm primarily concerned about the boundary WR talent because it'll likely become a focal point of the offense. And that is because I anticipate that teams will work to take the run away. They'd be less likely to do so if there was a dynamic passing offense that stretched the field. Yet, their primary receivers who would be running deeper patterns, i.e. intermediate or beyond, at this moment (and the latter in their careers) (EDIT: do not) represent the type of threat to make a defense think twice. Scheme only gets you so far...and eventually you gotta win 1 v 1 battles. That's the challenge when the scheme isn't so fresh to opponents. The offense will be tested and we're going to find out if their offensive philosophy within the complementary football approach is sustainable. I don't believe it is.

They had Diggs in '21 and '22, yet fell into deep slumps both seasons, particularly on offense. What I love about TSW is people who go from...here is the problem...to the cause almost within a few seconds. And then those providing some detail in perhaps historical perspective or decent statistical analysisl to illustrate it ain't that simple...get responses like yours here. Just surface level / knee jerk / narrative / bullet point conclusions. But it's a long season...and fast starts aren't always a harbinger of things to come.

Worth noting that the last 3 seasons Buffalo has started off hot...4-1 in 2021, 5-1 in 2022, and 3-1 last year highlighted by the 48-20 romp vs. Miami. In each of those starts they were good scoring (over or near 30 points per game). Then came the mid-season 8 game swoon where suddenly what was working isn't anymore. And each season to overcome that, they needed Josh carrying the ball even though it was a priority at the start of the season for him not to. That's the script 3 years running and there's a likelihood it repeats itself this year except this year, there's no Diggs to catch passes.

Yeah, but are they using just stats or another criteria for these grades?

Diggs is gone and entertaining otherwise hypothetical situations is not worth the time. I think they only wanted a bigger catch radius guy like Coleman because they also passed on some other smaller to average size WRs. But it's also a reactive response to last season's offense...although Coleman isn't close to being a bonafide starter, and as others like @Kirby Jackson have mentioned, they needed more from a 33rd overall pick. They needed a starter and looks like he has a longer runway than Rashee Rice had last season, who seems like a top-end NFL WR beginning mid-2023 and continuing last night.

It isn't so much that Buffalo missed on Worthy...it's that they weren't in a place to take him schematically. Bills have gone from wanting smaller, shiftier type separation receivers to back to wanting catch radius guys. And that's fine, but as KC has proven...you need both to be an explosive offense. KC OTOH has size drafting Rice last year, has Kelce, and then they add Worthy, who has to be used appropriately given his size...but the speed is there.

It's funny because the McD passing on Mahomes thing has quieted down a lot. And now there's Beane being so...Billsy with the WR decisions.

Keep falling back on the hyperbolic....which further confirms you lack the ability to make a coherent argument.

I am concerned with their ability to identify and draft offensive skilled talent, particularly as compared to defensive. They've found some good starters in the latter, but the former has not been good save for Josh. They haven't developed a top end WR or TE from 2017-2022. Maybe Kincaid is that guy, but the WR group doesn't reflect anyone unless Keon earns the comparisons to perhaps Davante Adams. They really gotta up that part of the game because shelling out big bucks on UFA WR's isn't a long term solution. Might produce immediate results but means taking on a big cap hit and/or a contract extension as with Diggs.

If you believe WR's are interchangeable...well there's a bridge in Brooklyn for for sale that you might be interested in.

It's clear.at this moment you are absolutely confident in Curtis Samuel, Khalil Shakir, Mack Hollins, MVS, and Keon Coleman as a WR group. And that an ensemble cast of them with Kincaid and Knox is not only sufficient...but better than people realize. Most are not and I'll file this post away for the regular season when it becomes (once again) abundantly clear that they are, collectively, a bottom of the barrel group and Josh Allen can't change that. And Josh is excellent. They are if they're all slot-receivers. And it's looking like Samuel, Shakir, Coleman (if used correctly) are slot-receivers. The others - Hollins and MVS - are not.

Hollins...didn't get 2.25M to be a blocker. And he's listed at the top of their depth chart so he'll likely get significant PT. Does it really need to be said that in a post-1960 NFL, your WR2 has to be something of a threat beyond 1.7 catches and 21 yards per game over his last 4 seasons? He's a strong candidate for 2024's version of Harty and Sherfield...on the cheap WR's who won't help Josh much. And a lot of solid TSW posters have observed what I'm saying: that Mack Hollins and MVS are nowhere near the caliber of starting NFL receivers anymore. They shouldn't even be primary depth and especially not when Josh Allen is your QB.

Don't make assumptions. Do you quantify that based on the 105 catches he has for 1,340 yards and 9 TDs...over his last 63 games (4 seasons) played or on a different measurement scale? Because Davis had 163 catches for 2,730 yards and 27 TDs...over his last 64 games (4 seasons). And it was pretty clear he wasn't up to par for a NFL WR2 even with Josh. Cannot be serious comparing the Chiefs WR group in 2022-23 to Buffalo's this year. Absolute non-serious take. They had future HOF'er Travis Kelce both seasons, and solid production first from JuJu S-S and then Rashee Rice who both exceeded 900 yards. @BADOLBILZmakes mention of this and people skate by it like it's nothing. The Bills have a WR2/3 in Samuel, then a bunch of cast-offs (Hollins, MVS) combined with the as-advertised rookie Coleman and another slot-receiver in Shakir who is likely to be a slot-only guy. There's Kincaid who averaged 9 yards per catch and the hands-challenged Knox. That's the group. Little proven veteran depth and rookies people assume will just step right in seamlessly. The biggest challenge on this board is people the lack of a global, i.e. NFL-wide view of how the league acts. Even if you include Diggs, they've spent 3 top-100 picks in 8 off-seasons on WR's...a position where 2 and often 3 will line up. They haven't signed a decent UFA WR since Brown and Beasley 5 off-seasons ago. Do yourself a favor and see how other teams have addressed WR and compare Buffalo. I am absolutely positive you'll see there's a serious drop-off in using premium assets at the position.

I sometimes think they're satisfied it's a winning strategy to have Josh with Brady's complementary football friendly offensive scheme. That, skilled talent is secondary and the QB + scheme will be their competitive advantage. And probably, that some guys are going to break out like Shakir and Kincaid. If it works, great. But if it doesn't...for all the talk about how Beane and McDermott are improving, that's a significant miscalculation. This is a matchup league and scheme can only get you so far. It's why I'd expect a trade by the deadline and Beane will then take a victory lap for making that move. Somewhat like trading for Benjamin in 2017...after botching the WR room that off-season.

This along with the other 100+ page thread is gonna be a back and forth of the raw emotion fans versus those who look for statistical evidence and/or understand human nature, i.e. what defenses will likely do. After Shakir went for 3-115-1 against NYJ in Week 11 he proceeded to go 11-143-1 in his next 5 games before 6-105-0 at Miami in the finale. That's 20-363-2 under Brady on 24 targets in 7 regular season games. Then 10-75-2 in the 2 playoff games on 12 targets for 30 catches on 36 targets totaling 438 yards and 4 TDs in 9 games. Can see a few scenarios happening...either he elevates his game as a good slot receiver and performs fairly decent against even better coverage. Or, they line him up outside and he struggles with less than ideal physical traits. Or, he struggles inside against better coverage. Whatever the case, just because he had moments last season doesn't mean it'll just work that way again. Especially without Diggs to take heat away from him. Someone else will have to fill that role to allow others to flourish.

Hopefully San Francisco gets this guy as part of their enhanced player security detail:

Ridiculous is the new normal here man. KC's defense doesn't get the credit they deserve, but they've steadily improved since 2018-2020 when they were not good. No longer are they the side that was 31st in yards allowed in 2018...they were 2nd in that metric and 2nd in points allowed last year. It's why KC can have a down offensive year now and still win a SB. Buffalo's a top-10 defense in yards and points allowed during the regular season, but can't keep that up in the playoffs. Difference this season is, if Buffalo's defense doesn't limit opposing offenses, their own offense isn't gonna be able to out-score opponents with their limited receivers.

I wouldn't even look at 2023 or 2024 yet. Too early to tell. But 2018-2022...kinda meh in the way of reliable starters on O or D (sorry, 6th round kickers don't count considering most aren't even drafted). And not guys who occasionally started or were primary depth. Leaves Taron Johnson, Wyatt Teller, Gabriel Davis, and Christian Benford. Add Milano from 2017 and that's 3 defensive starters, 1 miscast WR2 on offense, and a G they prematurely let go who performed with another franchise. They're not a great drafting team because more often than not they play it safe and conservative. That's great if you want a roster with no big holes...but not if you're trying to win the SB featuring a more talented top of the 53.