BillsVet

How many will return to this thread after Buffalo makes their pick (or trades out) on Thursday night and realize they fell for another time an insider was used to lay down some smoke? I'm guessing pretty much no one.

There were many here who, after Eric Fisher and Mitchell Schwartz were let go on the same day, firmly believed KC wouldn't or couldn't recover for 2021. Funny how things can change. 6 weeks later the Chiefs have changed their OL in effectively 1 off-season by acquiring Kyle Long, Orlando Brown, and Joe Thuney.

You guys passed Conflation 101. Great job!

You can see what you want. I merely applied a different metric to evaluate the supposed increase in caliber of play. @BuffaloBill noted that Josh's escapability improves their performance. You've concluded more points scored is a the positive effect of more OL spending. Not quite. I'd say Josh's ascendance to being a franchise QB largely contributed to that. And, better skill position play. This is a fan message board, and I get that fans are gonna be less objective. At the same time, Buffalo isn't going to have the luxury of spending big throughout this roster with Josh's contract forthcoming. It may not seem like much to spend 4.5M in cap dollars on Jon Feliciano, but doing that enough times adds up. I remember back in the prime drought years fans jumped on here to remind other fans (when Buffalo didn't spend much) how UFAs wouldn't win titles. That was true then and it's true now. Difference is, now that the team is doing it, that's OK. I look at the OL and they've got no less than 3 UFA starters on decent sized contracts for their position. That isn't going to last because it can't.

Leaving some critical data out in this analysis: In 2018, Buffalo spent 11.38M to rank 30th in the NFL. OL represented 6.03% of team cap dollars That increased to 29.05M spent vaulting them to 12th and 14.5% of their cap. In 2020, Bills OL spending increased to 36.25M to rank 3rd and was 16.4% of cap. Sure, some players like Dawkins who are homegrown received contract extensions and they should be credited for that. But much of the rest of that OL is higher paid UFAs, which should provide better quality of play. In 2020, I don't see them as having gotten their money's worth from the OL to spend what they did.

I thought we stopped using tackles to quantify a player's production like a decade ago. That's still a thing? I guess people still do that. Without ever considering where on the field, the down and distance, scheme, et al. Edmunds, if he wants a nice contract, is gonna need to get in line well behind Josh soon. And it's pretty likely that Josh's contract will drive down their ability to add another high priced player if that's what Edmunds thinks he is. At least Beane acknowledged the other day that Josh's contract will influence who they re-sign. But tackles as a metric? Yeah...

Relax Hondo.

Fixed it for you. Skills players and scoring are what win now. It was much worse during the years when Buffalo was bad. Basically during the 2005-19 drafts. It's child's play drafting bottom of the 1st coming off an AFC Championship appearance. Of course, the board was a lot different about 10 years ago. Smaller more educated group for the most part. Not so much anymore.

Ironic that today Beane said something about not being able to carry all the big contracts with Josh earning north of 40M per season. This is a reality Buffalo fans haven't had to experience in a long time. At some point the team has to pick a path forward. With a highly paid franchise QB contract, personnel becomes more built on value and less on balancing the offense with the defense. You're not taking RBs, DT's, LBs, guards, and safeties and paying them big money or investing high picks in them.

The Beane-McDermott partnership is more nuanced than a lot of fans realize or can be enlightened to see. The framework of this team is McD's. He has a strategy to implement and it is Beane (and staff) who put together the personnel options that support that plan. There's plenty of discussion leading up to their picks, but ultimately McD is going to get what he wants. After all, HC's and their in-game decisions are in the spotlight much more than GMs. HC's are typically the one fired when things go south. GM's know this and it's why HC's in many organizations get latitude to make personnel decisions. If they go defense in Round 1, it'll be 4 of 6 firsts used on that side of the ball. And that's without taking a pass-rusher. There's less value putting more resources into the defense when Josh is the way you win games.

Logic (and I find your screen name ironic) here goes. It is logical to conclude that this close to the draft those in the NFL Insider club are deliberately manipulated for purposes of subterfuge. They get some clicks, but none of them knows anything for sure. And Buffalo isn't about to let out a secret, at least nothing specific. A savvy NFL front office doesn't tip their hat on a draft pick even late in the 1st round. Because I'm all good with not knowing anything but realizing Buffalo's front office is confusing others about their intentions. Or, are you that me-first that you think you know while minimizing that some guy revealed Buffalo is leaky with their decision? Up to you "Logic."

Why anyone believes anything coming out 2 weeks before the draft is beyond me. These people get "scoops" and it's just disinformation meant to throw other front offices off. Don't believe the hype.

It'll be free to watch all the games from home. And best of all, those not receiving a vaccine will be free of vaccine-related side-effects.

Surprised no one has said OJ yet. Then again, he hadn't, ahem, done anything felonious during his playing career (that I know of). Couldn't stand John McCargo. Probably had to do with them drafting him, trading up to do so, and his having no gap discipline before being shipped out...then not passing his physical with IND. Which made him go back to Buffalo. Just a slug.

Tampa's defense is still a 30 front. David and White are the ILB's. Your point?

Classic Royale surface level analysis. Ignores that Tampa runs a hybrid 30 front with White primarily an inside LB as opposed to Milano, who is strictly a Will behind a 40 front. White is 3+ years younger than Milano, somewhat more durable, and used almost completely different in Bowles' scheme. I'd also argue he's more productive, but that's somewhat subjective. What isn't is that White played 93% of snaps in 2020 compared to Milano's 31%, hence my durability assertion. Yet, it's the same because they're LBs. Now conflate away.

I expected the last 2 off-seasons that Beane would influence McD to begin shifting more cap dollars and picks to the offense. Either he's tried and failed or this was not a topic during off-season reviews. An executive, even an admin GM, should have enough sense to know paying a WLB that amount does not contribute to more W's. And, that the defensive scheme needed the overhaul. Lost in this debate is that McD is designing the scheme and Beane is acquiring the players to fit that. The GM has the latitude to get it done, but not full freedom to alter how they line up on defense or offense. This kind of cost benefit analysis with cap and personnel is right on. But it's going to take a major loss for McD to change his spots and acquiesce to an offense first team that doesn't need 8M/year or 1st round LBs.

Last year Brady had the best skilled talent surrounding him in his career and needed it. Russell Wilson's public spat prompted Seattle to re-sign Tyler Lockett despite Metcalf set to cash in big soon. KC, as you note, is pursuing elite athletes who create matchup disadvantages and Buffalo had better get on board soon. Yet, McD and Beane seem comfortable running very similar personnel and schemes in hopes it'll finally defeat KC or the elite teams. There's still the emphasis on rounding out their defense to run McD's inflexible scheme. Maybe they draft a WR who can fly and present the deep threat missing, but that's a moderate gamble in a rookie to do so. Doing the same old conservative things and not surrounding your QB with elite talent is gonna sink some teams before seasons even begin. This year it might become obvious that the offense needs an injection of more skill than what some think is already above-average.

Who at OBD is using Tony Pauline to put out disinformation? I don't see this team going RB, but stranger things have happened. This time of year believe absolutely zero about which player an organization is interested in. The likelihood it's true is remarkably low.

Aside from a very talented DE (who admittedly may need seasoning) there's nothing on D right now they need in the 1st round. Drafts aren't for this year when you're this low in the 1st round and I wish people would stop looking at rookies as the solution to team needs. You can now shade more toward BPA than need.

But it gets fans on message boards excited like it's their fantasy football team. And it gives radio show hosts a topic that isn't the Buffalo Sabres.

Kim to me seems to be the Marie Antoinette in all of this, especially since she assumed the presidency for both teams. I never thought that when Terry was spending big dollars 8-9 years ago on the Sabres that Kim was as concerned about the financial health of the team because they hadn't yet spent on the Bills. The Sabres were Terry's toy and he had money. They maintained the lifestyle. Fast forward to today and they were losing a reported 40-60M per season with the Sabres even before the pandemic. Only now, they have a massive acquisition with the Bills that doesn't afford them the flexibility with the Sabres as they previously had. I think Kim loves the lifestyle of being a billionaire and insists that can never change, hence the power-point slide presented last year. They are clueless, but unlike a publicly traded company there's no one to hold them accountable. Even local media aside from a few individuals won't do it because the Pegula's have silenced some critics through denying access to the team. And then Kim made the statements about being misled by the NHL about hiring executives and how they knew more than the fans. It's a big ego thing and there's nothing more destructive in this world than people with that issue who can't live in reality. And when you're billionaires you don't have to live in the real world. You can buy your way out of problems...except as owners of a moribund hockey team.

The board has always been about football. Now there's just more of the social media influence pervading threads and behind others being opened. 10 years ago signing a backup DE in UFA would not have prompted 12 pages of discussion within a couple hours. Now it does. Kind of a reflection of society at large and not surprising.

I'm resigned to McKenzie re-signing. At least now I am.

This kinda fits within the idea that something's eventually gotta give in defensive spending with Allen and Diggs coming up for extensions. They can't afford another big dollar defender, especially one who is not a pass rusher or solid in coverage, without something else being sacrificed.