BillsVet

I doubt McD would give analytics types the time of day even if they were in the room during meetings to develop their draft board.

I think it was after the Houston WC loss when Beane said in the season ending PC that you're defined by how you lose your last game. The AFC CG loss was not the result of poor RB play, the lack of a 1T, or even CB2. The major personnel issue was a pass rush that could not pressure Mahomes and they've sought to improve that. Now, if only they can become more aggressive in game-plan/play-calling on both sides of the ball.

For years I had hopes Buffalo would demonstrate a cogent long term plan across the roster and they're doing just that. The plan, as good teams follow, was to rebuild with a veteran while drafting their replacement. It took a little longer, but this draft follows that strategy. I'm pretty confident the plan is for Brown to slide into a starting role within 2 seasons. because you can't keep paying the 2 starting OT's what they are with a QB under a contract Josh is sure to receive. Dawkins and Brown count 17.5M and 21.6M against the cap barring restructuring in 2021 and 2022 respectively.

It's not revolutionary for teams that are good to use the draft for what Buffalo did this year. Identify players with high reward potential who'll likely be in a rotation. What's not going to work is using the draft for need or, when your roster is thin at multiple positions, going BPA with an eye on those rookies starting. I'd rather be in the first scenario. The second is what (poorly) rebuilding clubs do year in year out...kinda like Buffalo circa 2005-2016.

The irony about today's move is that if someone had asked in mid-2018 who would develop faster into an All-Pro, I think the vast majority of TBD would have said Edmunds. After all, he played a position with a unique physical skill set, had continuity in coaching, and the scheme was set up for him. Yet, it's Allen who ascended to All-Pro status and Edmunds we keep hearing has potential, is still very young, and going to get better. Giving TE the 5th year option pushes the problem down the road, but without significant improvement he'll be a 10M+ albatross in that defense come 2022.

Hard to understand how multiple regimes eschewed being have a comprehensive plan that prioritized throwing the ball and rushing the passer. Looks like that's finally in the rear view mirror now. Beane said this draft was about the future, which is what is should be when you've ascended to being one of the better teams. All those years, particularly from 2006-2016 it was about getting guys who could play now and likely were lesser talented but more pro ready. Also helps them get cheaper when JAs contract comes due. Spending 6-10M on vet DEs has to be curtailed along with some other positions.

Beane said at the pre-draft luncheon that they're looking at this draft for the long term, and these picks fit that. I'm not going to bank on either DE coming in and giving them 15 sacks. They're likely not going to provide the margin in key games either, but who knows. Still, last year they had enough offense to out-score plenty of teams. But everyone's getting better and Buffalo's gotta stay ahead of them as their scheme is more well understood. We'll see if what they've done and how much Josh improves is enough to keep the advantage.

I'd counter he's used more picks and UFA dollars on defense: 2017: Signed Hyde and Poyer (later re-signed). Drafted Tre with a low 1st round pick 2018: Signed Star to a large contract along with Murphy, traded up in mid 1st to take Edmunds and 3rd on H. Phillips. 2019: Re-signed Hughes to a moderately high contract. Drafted Oliver with a high 1st. 2020: Signed Addison to a moderately high contract along with Klein, V. Butler and Q. Jefferson. Drafted Epenesa in mid 2nd. 2021: Re-signed Milano to a moderately high contract. Drafted Rousseau with a low 1st and Basham with a low 2nd. That's 7 top 100 picks including (4 first, 2 2nds, and a 3rd) and 10 UFA's or re-signings of some note in 5 off-seasons (so far).

It's not as strong a group as people think. I know a lot of people cite what they did in 2020, but next season will be different. Teams have tape on Daboll's offense and Josh isn't gonna sneak up on anyone. They're gonna need some new wrinkles and another receiver would help. Gotta stay fresh on offense unless you've got elite talent, which aside from Diggs and an older Beasley they really don't have.

McD under-values offense more than he should and both the draft and UFA illustrate that. People are gonna look at the current offense, but aside from Diggs there's no one at the skill positions who can make a big play deep. Beasley, Davis, Sanders, Knox, Moss, Singletary are not those types. Breida perhaps, but he's not a 3 down back. We're going to find out if McD's plan to load up on defense with all these picks and UFA's is worth it. Because I'd hate to see Allen become Aaron Rodgers under the later McCarthy years when he could have used more skilled talent. A good team, but not good enough to win deep into the playoffs as they get lapped by other teams who emphasize faster offenses.

No, they have more signed at CB than those 2 - Taron Johnson and Levi Wallace are also under contract. As to secondary competency, last year they were second in secondary spending, yet ranked 13th in passing yards allowed. Obviously, pass defense is the byproduct of coverage and pass rush, but my point in analyzing spending versus results is all about the scheme. Is McD's scheme and his vision for building a SB winner suitable for how the league is in 2021? I don't think so. Talking about defensive resource allocation reminds me how Rex was never gonna have time to implement his defense. It took too many pieces to do so and the same thing is playing out now. You've got a problem when the HC needs so many 1st round picks and high dollar UFAs to run his defense, which as @BADOLBILZ has noted is inflexible and teams are catching on to. It'll come to a head eventually, but probably not this season when Josh gets his contract. Beane even admitted to them needing to adjust after that contract is finalized. You won't have guys like Milano or Feliciano getting extensions. They'll be under the gun to start guys on rookie contracts to save money.

Your analysis is inherently flawed because no one is talking about the volume of defensive players drafted Who cares that KC or TB spent late round flyers on Dlinemen? And it completely ignores that some defensive positions are more valued than others (CB, DE) versus others (S, DT, LB). Nor is anyone saying you shouldn't draft or sign UFA defenders. The issue is resource allocation in light of how you win in the NFL. My point remains that they are not getting the return on defense investment. Case in point: Buffalo spent the most money on defense in 2020 and in nearly every statistical category was ranked in the middle of the league. It's about matching your strategy in personnel to your scheme and determining if the scheme works to win against great teams. Because..the NFL is a passing league now. Drafting another defender with the possible exception of a true pass rusher at 30 is not value added given the era and how teams win now. You get more value in theory now with Josh being a top QB by supporting him. Better skill types and blocking give Buffalo a better chance to win than McD getting all the pieces he wants on defense.

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/positional/2020/defense/ Buffalo had 2020's highest paid defense that featured 3 1st round picks and numerous highly paid UFAs. If they don't have the horses 4 years into McD's tenure they never will. The issue is not limited to personnel. Because whenever McD meets an opposing offense that can score, he goes uber-conservative and ends up giving up big points. There's going to be a reckoning probably next year when Josh's contract begins to inhibit McD from getting all the players he thinks he needs on that defense. Drafting more defense does not work in the NFL of the 21st century. The faster people accept that, the better. Now, it's a matter of a HC who begins to accept that as well.

How many will return to this thread after Buffalo makes their pick (or trades out) on Thursday night and realize they fell for another time an insider was used to lay down some smoke? I'm guessing pretty much no one.

There were many here who, after Eric Fisher and Mitchell Schwartz were let go on the same day, firmly believed KC wouldn't or couldn't recover for 2021. Funny how things can change. 6 weeks later the Chiefs have changed their OL in effectively 1 off-season by acquiring Kyle Long, Orlando Brown, and Joe Thuney.

You guys passed Conflation 101. Great job!

You can see what you want. I merely applied a different metric to evaluate the supposed increase in caliber of play. @BuffaloBill noted that Josh's escapability improves their performance. You've concluded more points scored is a the positive effect of more OL spending. Not quite. I'd say Josh's ascendance to being a franchise QB largely contributed to that. And, better skill position play. This is a fan message board, and I get that fans are gonna be less objective. At the same time, Buffalo isn't going to have the luxury of spending big throughout this roster with Josh's contract forthcoming. It may not seem like much to spend 4.5M in cap dollars on Jon Feliciano, but doing that enough times adds up. I remember back in the prime drought years fans jumped on here to remind other fans (when Buffalo didn't spend much) how UFAs wouldn't win titles. That was true then and it's true now. Difference is, now that the team is doing it, that's OK. I look at the OL and they've got no less than 3 UFA starters on decent sized contracts for their position. That isn't going to last because it can't.

Leaving some critical data out in this analysis: In 2018, Buffalo spent 11.38M to rank 30th in the NFL. OL represented 6.03% of team cap dollars That increased to 29.05M spent vaulting them to 12th and 14.5% of their cap. In 2020, Bills OL spending increased to 36.25M to rank 3rd and was 16.4% of cap. Sure, some players like Dawkins who are homegrown received contract extensions and they should be credited for that. But much of the rest of that OL is higher paid UFAs, which should provide better quality of play. In 2020, I don't see them as having gotten their money's worth from the OL to spend what they did.

I thought we stopped using tackles to quantify a player's production like a decade ago. That's still a thing? I guess people still do that. Without ever considering where on the field, the down and distance, scheme, et al. Edmunds, if he wants a nice contract, is gonna need to get in line well behind Josh soon. And it's pretty likely that Josh's contract will drive down their ability to add another high priced player if that's what Edmunds thinks he is. At least Beane acknowledged the other day that Josh's contract will influence who they re-sign. But tackles as a metric? Yeah...

Relax Hondo.

Fixed it for you. Skills players and scoring are what win now. It was much worse during the years when Buffalo was bad. Basically during the 2005-19 drafts. It's child's play drafting bottom of the 1st coming off an AFC Championship appearance. Of course, the board was a lot different about 10 years ago. Smaller more educated group for the most part. Not so much anymore.

Ironic that today Beane said something about not being able to carry all the big contracts with Josh earning north of 40M per season. This is a reality Buffalo fans haven't had to experience in a long time. At some point the team has to pick a path forward. With a highly paid franchise QB contract, personnel becomes more built on value and less on balancing the offense with the defense. You're not taking RBs, DT's, LBs, guards, and safeties and paying them big money or investing high picks in them.

The Beane-McDermott partnership is more nuanced than a lot of fans realize or can be enlightened to see. The framework of this team is McD's. He has a strategy to implement and it is Beane (and staff) who put together the personnel options that support that plan. There's plenty of discussion leading up to their picks, but ultimately McD is going to get what he wants. After all, HC's and their in-game decisions are in the spotlight much more than GMs. HC's are typically the one fired when things go south. GM's know this and it's why HC's in many organizations get latitude to make personnel decisions. If they go defense in Round 1, it'll be 4 of 6 firsts used on that side of the ball. And that's without taking a pass-rusher. There's less value putting more resources into the defense when Josh is the way you win games.

Logic (and I find your screen name ironic) here goes. It is logical to conclude that this close to the draft those in the NFL Insider club are deliberately manipulated for purposes of subterfuge. They get some clicks, but none of them knows anything for sure. And Buffalo isn't about to let out a secret, at least nothing specific. A savvy NFL front office doesn't tip their hat on a draft pick even late in the 1st round. Because I'm all good with not knowing anything but realizing Buffalo's front office is confusing others about their intentions. Or, are you that me-first that you think you know while minimizing that some guy revealed Buffalo is leaky with their decision? Up to you "Logic."

Why anyone believes anything coming out 2 weeks before the draft is beyond me. These people get "scoops" and it's just disinformation meant to throw other front offices off. Don't believe the hype.