folz

I just think that there is a greater chance that if we made a change we end up with something worse. Why drop a winning coach for a very BIG maybe. I mean, where are all these magical coaches who can just step in and win a Super Bowl right away? There are currently 9 Super Bowl winning coaches active in the league: Reid, Bellichick, McVay, Pederson, Carroll, Harbaugh, McCarthy, Payton, and Tomlin. I don't see any of them leaving their current positions any time soon, unless it is for retirement. Maybe Pederson or McCarthy if things don't go well in Jax and Dallas, but that's it. The only other Super Bowl winning coach out there that isn't well retired is Gary Kubiak. How confident are you that Kubiak, Pederson, or McCarthy even could automatically win a Super Bowl here, even if they were available? And anyone else is in the same boat as McDermott (never won a SB). So, people can believe another coach (say a young, upcoming assistant) has that killer instinct to win a Super Bowl (that apparently they believe McDermott does not have), but there is no proof to that fact. Plus there would be growing pains with that candidate as he learns to be a HC. I guess I just feel, as the old saying goes, a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush. And I'm speaking about now...sure if after two more years the team is imploding or going backwards, then it might be time to move on. But if McD still has us as a SB contenders, reaching championship games, then I say stick with it till we win one. If you take Belichick out of the equation (as he is an anomaly), and add up the tenure of the other 8 Super Bowl winning coaches divided by the number of Super Bowls won by them, then you get a Super Bowl win every 12.77 years of their careers. Even coaches who won it all don't do it every 5-6 years. Reid: 2 SBs in 24 years as HC Tomlin: 1 SB in 16 years as HC Carroll: 1 SB in 17 years as HC McCarthy: 1 SB in 16 years as HC Harbaugh: 1 SB in 15 years as HC Payton: 1 SB in 15 years as HC McVay: 1 SB in 6 years as HC Pederson: 1 SB in 6 years as HC And I know, people will say, yeah, but McDermott has Josh Allen. But, Payton had Drew Brees; Tomlin had Rothlisberger; Reid had McNabb and Mahomes, Carroll had Wilson, etc. Heck, Aaron Rodgers is a sure fire 1st ballot HOF QB and only has 1 SB in an 18-year career; Drew Brees (future HOFer) had 1 SB win in a 20-year career; even Peyton Manning (one of the best to ever do it) only won 2 in 18 years. It's just not as easy as some make it out to be to win a Super Bowl. I just think we have as good a chance with McDermott as we would with anyone else. And I rarely hear McDermott's detractors put forward a name that they think could come in and automatically be better than Sean.

Sean McDermott has a .639 winning percentage as a head coach in the NFL. That is currently good for 21st ALL-TIME (out of 196 head coaches per Pro Football Reference---link below). He is just behind Andy Reid (.641) and just ahead of Mike Tomlin (.636) and Sean Payton (.631). He's only six spots behind Belichick (.662). There are only 3 active coaches with a higher winning percentage than Sean: LaFleur, Belichick, and Reid (and LaFleur has coached 33 fewer games than McDermott). Yes, McDermott's sample size is still on the lower end obviously, but there are 8 head coaches ahead of him on the list that coached fewer games than Sean. And there are coaches that some McDermott detractors would probably want over him that compare pretty evenly: Sean McDermott 62-35 (.639) Sean McVay 60-38 (.612) https://www.pro-football-reference.com/coaches/ And don't tell me it's all Josh Allen, unless you are willing to then acknowledge that Belichick is all Brady, Reid is all Mahomes, Walsh was all Montana, etc. Not many (if any) coaches win consistently without a top QB. And yes, Sean is a good guy/great leader...and that matters to me. As a fan, I like to root for good people. But regardless of that, it just seems crazy to me that people would want to move on from such a winning coach because of one playoff mistake (KC game)---as if no other coach (even Super Bowl winning coaches) have ever made a mistake in a big game---and because he couldn't muster his team this year (that had been so beaten down over and over physically and emotionally) to beat the Bengals. Be careful what you wish for fellas.

😁😉

I still can't figure out how the compensatory pick for losing a minority coach is supposed to influence/fix anything. So, there is no incentive for hiring a minority coach unless you think a guy is so good that he will get poached from your staff in a couple of years. If that is the supposed incentive behind this, then 1. you're only going to hire guys that are good enough to get poached, and those guys were always going to get hired anyways (because they are good and experienced); or 2. You plan to wait for that incentive, 3, 4, 5 years, while you groom a young guy on your staff. But is a third round pick four years from now worth you choosing someone over maybe another guy you liked more (especially when the average coaching tenure in the NFL is 3.3 years)? I truly can't figure out where the incentive is in this that helps more minority coaches get hired, if that is the goal. Does anyone see any logic behind this? Plus, the system is broken when a Super Bowl caliber team is getting 7 extra picks, 3 in the third round. What happened to competitive balance? How does it feel to be Seattle (with 0 comp picks) and your division getting: SF (7)-three 3s, a 5th, a 6th, and two 7ths; the Rams (4)-three 5ths and a 7th, and the Cardinals (3)-a 3rd, a 5th, and a 6th?

Did a quick Google search to try and find articles ranking the drafting success of NFL teams, just out of curiosity. There was less than I thought there would be (or my search terms maybe weren't catching everything). It's only 4 articles that were somewhat current (linked below), so take it with a grain of salt, but the Bills ranked 3rd, 4th, 12th, and 16th per these articles (the #12 ranking is over the last ten years, the others are more focused to 2017-2021). I think this very small sample size shows at least two things: 1. Ranking draft success is still a very subjective matter. Everyone can agree on the major hits and busts, but everything in between seems to be ranked somewhat on a personal scale. Or it's based on playing time, how long they stayed with a team, etc. which doesn't necessarily tell you exactly how good or impactful that player actually was. 2. Under the current regime, the Bills have not been bad at drafting (probably somewhere in the top third of the league), but they also haven't been great at drafting (consensus top 5 say). Outside of drafting Josh, I doubt any Bills fans would say we have been one of the best drafting teams over the last six years (definite room for improvement), but I also don't think you can say that they have been bad, by any means (in comparison to the rest of the league, they are definitely above average). We may not have drafted as many studs as we would have liked, but we have got a lot of production/minutes from our draft picks (Tre, Dion, Matt, Josh, Tremaine, Harrison, Taron, Siran, Ed, Devin, Dawson, Gabe, Tyler, Dane, A.J., Greg, Boogie, Spencer, Damar, Doyle, Kaiir, Jimbo, Christian, Khalil---and then there is Wyatt and Isiah too, of course). That equates to just over 4 productive players per draft, which I would assume across the league is pretty good. Where we have obviously been lacking is finding Studs...but you also have to remember that four of our six first round picks over that span came in the bottom half of round one. Only Josh at #7 and Ed at #9 were top 15 picks. Most studs are found at the top of the first round. And then it's obviously the same for each subsequent round, we generally are picking at the bottom of the 2nd round, bottom of the third round, etc. Which needs to be taken into account when say comparing it to a team who has been drafting high in the rounds. We may not be one of the best drafting teams (hope that improves), but they ARE pretty darn good at overall team building thus far. And obviously, rankings can change quickly. For instance, if we get studs with say two of our top three picks this year, and/or one or more of Ed, Groot, Boogie, Elam, Shakir, or others raise their gameplay, our drafting success will look a hell of a lot better and we'd probably be considered one of the best drafting teams over the last 7-8 years. But, if our first two picks this year bust or are just mediocre (and none of our young guys take that next step), we would all of a sudden look like a below average drafting team. It's kind of a fluid thing. But, here's to hoping for some big hits this year! ESPN: Teams' overall drafting since 2012 ranked. Bills ranked 12th. [Article is from April 2022] https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/33297949/nfl-draft-which-teams-gotten-best-value-2012-rank-all-32 This site ranks for the last 5 years (2017-2021) and has the Bills ranked 3rd. [Article is from April 2022] https://www.the33rdteam.com/category/nfl-draft/which-teams-have-been-best-at-drafting/ This site has Bills at #16 over the last 5 years (2017-2021). [Article is from April 2021] https://nypost.com/2021/04/17/nfl-draft-analysis-ranking-teams-five-year-history/ PFF ranking drafts from 2017-2020 [article from Feb 2021]. Bills rank 4th. https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-historical-draft-success-for-all-32-nfl-teams

Some posters seem to poo-poo some of the teams' achievements, as if these things are common or easy, but they are not. How many of the 32 NFL teams went to the playoffs in each of the last four years? Answer is 2 (KC, BUF) How many teams won their division at least 3 of the last 4 years? Answer is 3 (KC, BUF, GB) [KC took their division all 4 years; BUF and GB 3 out of 4] The Bills have the second best record in the NFL over the last 4 years, winning 72.3% of their regular season games (just two games behind KC and a half game ahead of Green Bay]. And we have proven we can hang with and beat KC (the undisputed best team in the league over the last 4 years).We are 2-3 against them over the last 3 years with 4 out of 5 games being played in KC and the 13 second game being as close as you can get to a tie. So, we have almost played them even across the board...they just won the two most important ones. The Bills are 50% in the playoffs (4-4) over that span, with two wacky games that just as easily could have gone the Bills way. In essence, the Bills were 2 plays away from having at least a 6-2 playoff record. We only got solidly beat twice in the playoffs, the Championship game against KC (we just weren't ready yet/KC was better...and the refs let them maul our already banged up WR corps) and Cincy this year [where no matter how many of you want to deny it, that team was physically and emotionally out of gas and understandably so---in fact, I don't think there are many coaches who could have navigated the ups and downs of last season (the injuries, the tragedies, etc.) as well as Sean did.] McD has already brought us some now all-time Bills memories: "breaking the drought on New Year's Eve," "drafting Josh," "the perfect playoff game vs. the Pats," and complain all you want about the 13 seconds, but that is still one of the greatest NFL playoff games ever, etc. Not to mention that they have built a team of players I like to root for. The family atmosphere and being united with the city and fan base does matter to me (I know it doesn't to all). I mean, what are we complaining about here? Some want to throw all of those positives away because of a handful of plays that didn't go our way in the playoffs (be they mistakes or not)? I originally voted "met expectations," but heck, I think they've actually exceeded expectations overall, despite not bringing a Lombardi home yet. Of course, winning a championship is always the goal and what we all want, but it's just not as easy as some seem to think. You need a lot of things to bounce your way. We just haven't caught the bounces yet. To state the obvious: 96.96% of head coaches do not win a Super Bowl in any given year 93.75% of head coaches do not make it to a Super Bowl in any given year In the 54 years of the Super Bowl era, only 21 head coaches total have won a Super Bowl. Falling short of a Super Bowl appearance does not automatically equate to inadequacies or diminish the chances of that coach making a Super Bowl in the future. But the fact that only 21 guys have ever done it points to both how difficult it actually is to do, and to the slim chances of just automatically finding someone else who can do it (if we moved on from McDermott). We hated when Jauron said it, but it's true, it's not easy to win in the NFL. And yet, McD has had the Bills as a Top 3 team consistently over the last four years. That's a lot of wins we've been able to enjoy. And one of these years with Josh and McD, things will fall our way and it will be our time, but until then, appreciate what we have and enjoy the ride.

I constantly see posters say that Sean and Brandon have focused too much on the defensive side of the ball when it comes to drafting and free agency. This just is not true. But, of course, once something is believed, it is hard to get people to see differently. So, this idea just keeps getting bandied about. The only thing that could be said/griped about is maybe that the Bills have spent too many first round picks on defense. But that's it. You can't even say too many premium (or Day 1 and Day 2 picks), as you will see below. The first round is the only place where you can say the Bills have gone defensive heavy, but people say it like it has been a rule across all drafts, all rounds, and every year of free agency (as a whole). Since 2017, the Bills have drafted 44 players: 21 on defense, 22 on offense, and 2 STers. So, overall, the Bills have drafted 1 more offensive player than defensive players over the last six years. Below is a breakdown by round: Round 1: 5 on defense, 1 on offense (though we should note that another 1st round pick was used on Stefon Diggs, so technically 2 on offense) Round 2: 2 on defense, 4 on offense Round 3: 2 on defense, 4 on offense Round 4: 1 on defense, 1 on offense Round 5: 3 on defense, 5 on offense Round 6: 5 on defense, 4 on offense, 2 STs Round 7: 3 on defense, 3 on offense So, yes, 5 defensive players to 1/2 offensive players in round one. But rounds 1-3 combined, it's 9 defensive players to 9 offensive players. Rounds 1-5 combined, it's 13 defensive players to 15 offensive players. And how about free agency? [It was hard to get exact FA numbers as some sites include rookie free agents that made the team and some did not, some included the Bills resigning their own low-tier free agents and some did not. I tried to focus on free agents coming from other teams to the Bills in a particular off-season...but by no means are these numbers definitive.] But, to the best of my quick researching ability, since 2017, the Bills have brought in 33 defensive free agents, 47 offensive free agents, and 2 Special Teamers. [Special Teamers in my numbers are kicking specialists only, for players like Taiwan and Tyler M, they were listed as either offense or defense depending, despite really being STs] So, since Sean McDermott arrived, the Bills have brought in (approx) 54 defensive players total, 69 offensive players total, and 4 Special Teamers total. I'm guessing that this assumption of being defensive-heavy is coming from the disparity in the first round picks, and the Bills going heavy defensive line the last two years. But again, overall, the Bills have not over-focused on defense when you look at their full tenure, it has only been in regards to first round picks. And I'm sure it doesn't help the perception that those first round picks on defense (outside of Tre White), didn't come in as dominant players right away (Tremaine, Ed, Greg, Kaiir), if they had, I doubt anyone would be complaining that they are over-drafting defense. But, then again, when you are drafting in the bottom-half of round one, it is tough to get one of those guys that just comes in as a rookie and shines right away, so they have drafted a bit for potential (knowing that these players would need grooming time). You can totally question the Bills draft/FA strategy or the individual players they are bringing in (I want more offensive line help too), but this idea that they only focus on defense is as the thread title states, a myth. Go Bills!

Just saying, it's not a given, even with a top QB. Nine QBs threw for over 4,100 yards this year, and only 3 of their 9 teams had their WR #2 go over 1,000 yards. And those players' stats were: Tee Higgins: 1,029 yds and 7 TDs [on 109 Targets] Chris Godwin: 1,023 and 3 TDs [on 142 targets] Tyler Lockett: 1,033 and 9 TDs [on 117 Targets] Gabe Davis had 836 and 7 TDs [on 93 Targets] Diggs [154 targets] took more opportunities away from Davis than did the other three players' counterparts: Chase [134 targets], Evans [127 targets], Metcalf [141 targets]. If you pro-rated Gabe's stats to the number of targets that the other three players got, it would look like this: with Higgins # of targets: 980 yards and 8 TDs with Godwin's # of targets: 1,276 yards and 10.65 TDs with Lockett's # of targets: 1,052 yards and 8.775 TDs And again, 6 of the 9 teams didn't have two 1,000 yard receivers to begin with. It isn't the norm, even with the top passing QBs in the league. As far as TDs go, Six QBs threw at least 29 TDs. Here are their top two TD receivers' totals: Mahomes: Kelce (TE) 12 and McKinnon (RB) 9 - [His top 2 WRs only had 5 TDs combined] Allen: Diggs 11 and Davis 7 Burrow: Chase 9 and Higgins 7 Smith: Lockett 9 and Metcalf 6 Cousins: Jefferson 8 and Thielen 6 Goff: St. Brown 6 and Chark 3 So, expecting more than 7 TDs from your number two WR is also a lot to ask, even from a prolific passing team.

Sometimes I think you guys are a bit unrealistic. Only 22 receivers in the NFL had over 1,000 yards this season (there are 32 teams...so many teams didn't even have their #1 WR gain 1,000 yards, let alone their #2). Of those 22 receivers, only 3 had 10+ TDs (Adams, Brown, and Diggs). So, only 3 WRs in the entire NFL had 1,000+ yards and 10+ TDs this year. THREE. And you expect that from our #2 WR as if that is normal for a #2? Heck, it's not even normal for a #1. Only 5 NFL teams this year had two 1,000 yard receivers. Here are those teams top 2 WR numbers combined: MIAMI: 3,066 yards and 15 TDs (Hill and Waddle) PHILLY: 2,692 yards and 18 TDs (Brown and Smith) TAMPA: 2,147 yards and 9 TDs (Evans and Godwin) SEATTLE: 2,081 yards and 15 TDs (Metcalf and Lockett) CINCY: 2,075 yards and 16 TDs (Chase and Higgins) for comparison: BILLS: 2,276 yards and 18 TDs (Diggs and Davis) So, the combo of Diggs and Davis had the 3rd highest combined yards of any WR duo and they tied with Philly for the most TDs by any WR duo. Obviously, none of those teams had 20 TDs from their starting WR duo. So, 10 TDs a piece for your WR1 and WR2 just doesn't happen that often. Not to mention that three of those five teams listed above had more passing attempts than the Bills (more attempts = more yards) Team Pass Attempts Tampa 751 Cincy 610 Miami 584 [Buff 574] Seattle 573 Philly 536 (Philly was the true outlier this year with the fewest attempts of the top 6 WR passing teams, yet the 2nd most yards and tied for most TDs.) And then there is draft position as well when discussing those teams/players: Team Player Draft position Tampa Evans #7 Tampa Godwin #84 Cincy Chase #5 Cincy Higgins #33 Philly Brown #51 Philly Smith #10 Seattle Metcalf #64 Seattle Lockett #69 Miami Waddle #6 Miami Hill #165 Buff Diggs #146 Buff Davis #128 So, when you are looking at teams with two 1,000 yard receivers, you are comparing Davis (drafted #128) with much more highly drafted players. Eight of those top twelve players were drafted in the top 69 (basically all 1st and 2nd rounders). (Hill and Diggs were obviously the big lotto picks---but to expect Davis to be that in his third year, or ever, may be expecting too much). We all know Gabe needs to clean up his drops, but otherwise, you can't really knock his production (stat-wise) as a #2 WR. He was 30th overall in receiving yards for WRs (with only 32 teams, that would seem to put him as a low-end #1/high-end#2 for that stat). Only 12 WRs in the entire league scored more TDs than Gabe this year. And yet, 41 WRs had more targets than he did last season. Give him an offseason on the juggs machine and a healthy 2023 campaign and I think he'll be fine. I also hope that a new voice in the WR room will help. Of course, I'm not saying don't draft or bring in another WR. Gabe is only under contract one more year, so we need to bring up some young guys anyhow...and more competition is always good. Draft a young guy and if he or Khalil beat out Gabe next year for the starting or #2 spot, so be it. Or, Gabe bounces back, holds his spot and has a much better year next season. He's still young with room to grow and improve. Most people get better with more experience/time on the job.

This is a total cherry-picking of stats to try and prove a point by the BN writer. Whoever wrote this article chose the 93 target number because that was how many targets Gabe had...which means everyone else on that list actually had more targets than Gabe (anywhere from 1 to 91 targets more than Gabe). Of course he would be low on that list for receptions, yards, and first downs because he had fewer targets than everyone else. So, basically, all of those BN stats are absolutely meaningless except for two: (1) the catch percentage. Which we all know about. Yes, Gabe has to improve on the drops. But even with that, you have to take into account that many of Gabe's targets are low percentage (deep shots)...hard to compare that to say a player like Tyler Boyd who has mostly high percentage throws coming his way. Same with the first down stat. You can't compare first downs for say a slot receiver compared to a boom or bust deep guy; And (2) TDs: Well despite having fewer targets than the other 40 guys, he had more TDs than all but 28 (that's a good thing right?).

Guesstimating the jump in that video, it looked to be about 67". DK's vertical at the combine was 40.5". The video is obviously fake. The highest standing vertical jump (as opposed to a platform vertical jump) recorded in an organized testing environment is 47.1 inches. I highly doubt that DK just broke that by nearly two feet.

Sometimes it's just time for a change/fresh start for all involved. He has been here six years, how much more were the receivers going to learn from him at this point? No question, his players loved him...but it was also a very down year for the position. I'm not laying all of that at Chad's feet, there were so many other factors involved (injuries, new OC, etc.), but I have a feeling that McBeane just thought it was time for a new voice/different personality in that room (especially if his contract was indeed up). And this regime is known for letting guys find another job first when they are going to move on from someone, so they don't have to "fire" or not "resign" them. Obviously Chad is a good coach and was going to find another job, just had to wait for the dust of the season to settle a bit. Could be similar to the firing of Salgado (from the teaching aspect). We will probably be bringing in some young WRs (along with Shakir and Gabe) and maybe they want to bring in a guy that has a proven track record of coaching up young WRs. Or, like I said before, maybe it was just time for a new voice/perspective in that room. Sometimes someone coming in fresh can see things that the current person might not be able to see clearly, due to familiarity or relationships, etc. (the old idea of when you live in the monkey house, you get used to the smell and don't notice it anymore---maybe not the best analogy, but you get the point). Call me a Homer, but this seems like the most plausible scenario to me...as opposed to Chad seeing that the Bills are a sinking ship with MCBeane and he's getting while the getting is good because he's going to become OC in Jacksonville within a year and win a Super Bowl there way before the Bills ever win one, while at the same time saving on his taxes. 😁

Just wanted to make a point regarding the bold statement above. I wouldn't say Marv's time in KC was a big success, but it also wasn't a total failure, based on the circumstances. This is part of what I wrote in a thread about Marv a while back: "- Five years Head Coach of the Kansas City Chiefs. People knock his record here, but he took over a 2-12 team, the worst team in the league, that also just had their two best defensive players retire. Not counting the strike year, his record was 28-36. Not great, but there was improvement every year (from that 2 win season before he arrived) to 4 wins, then 7 wins, then 8 wins, and to a 9-7 record in 1981. And remember, this was pre-free agency. Rebuilds took a lot longer back in the day (and that's if you had a good GM and ownership). It wasn't like today where teams can go worst to first in one year with a good free agency class." Also, just to note, Marv went to 3 Grey Cups in the CFL, winning 2, and being named CFL Coach of the Year before coming to Buffalo as well.

Looks pretty even to me, rather than Allen being an afterthought: Here are some stats for these three QBs over the last two seasons: Player Record Total Yards Total TDs Burrow 22-10 9,461 76 Allen 24-9 10, 215 84 Mahomes 26-8 10, 828 84 As far as I can see it, there are only two categories where you can knock Allen below the other two. The first is completion % (Burrow=69.27; Mahomes=66.69; Allen=63.31), but let's not forget that for good or bad, Allen throws way more low percentage passes than the other two. If he took more of what the defense gave him rather than going for homerun balls, his % would probably be right there with the other two. But, what he lacks in completion percentage, he makes up for in the run game (as he is a far superior runner to the other two). And the second item is playoff wins. Over the last two years, Burrow has the best playoff record at 5-2; Mahomes is 3-1 (pre-Superbowl obviously); and Allen is 2-2. But, if 13 seconds doesn't happen, then Allen is at least 3-1 and Mahomes is 2-2, so not a big difference there (a coin flip, if you will). And if the Bills had advanced last year over KC, maybe they beat Cincy and everything is different. Anyhow, this is still a team game and circumstances and luck play a part in playoff runs as well. But, this is where I think the OP and other fans are getting the Allen is an afterthought idea, because he didn't advance as far as the other two in the playoffs the last two years. Hard to say it was his fault for not advancing last year, he played every bit as good, if not better than Mahomes and Burrow in the playoffs last year. And this year, just a lot of bad luck and crazy circumstances. Give it a few more years and I bet things will even out. But, if we want to talk playoffs, let's look at their game averages in the playoffs over the last two years: Allen (4 gms): 361 total yds, 3.25 TDs, and 0.75 INTs per game Mahomes (5 gms): 342 total yds; 3.2 TDs, and 0.6 INTs per game Burrow (7 gms): 275 total yds; 1.43 TDs, and 0.57 INTs per game Allen and Mahomes (stat-wise) have far outperformed Burrow in the playoffs...but again, it is a team game. A QB does not win it on his own. Can't we just accept that these three players are pretty much all on par at the top of the game. No need to put one down to raise another up. They're all great and it will be fun to watch them battle it out over the next decade or so.

As opposed to looking at team records (which a single assistant coach doesn't have much to do with), why not look at some stats that are more specific to the coach himself. I don't have the time to dig too deep, but here are a some notes on what he helped them do in Houston last year: In 2021, the year before they hired Danna, opposing quarterbacks compiled a 94.1 passer rating against the Texans' defense, the 12th-highest in the NFL. The Texans defense's 8.0 yards per pass attempt was tied with the Detroit Lions, Baltimore Ravens, and New York Jets for the highest allowed in the NFL. Overall, the Texans secondary was ranked worst in the NFL. In 2022, despite the team posting just a 3-13-1 record, Houston allowed the 10th-fewest passing yards per game (209.3), the sixth-lowest average QB rating (82.7), and ranked 14th in FO’s Pass DVOA (2.6%). Yards per pass attempt dropped from 8 yards in 2021 to 6.8 yards in 2022, and they were tied for 4th in INTs. And they did that with "2 rookies and 3 journeyman players" (per PFF at the start of the 2022 season). Their secondary went from worst in the league to somewhere in the 10-15 range without adding any big name FAs. They did add Derek Stingley (a number 3 overall draft pick at CB), but he was a rookie, only played 9 games (due to injury), and was considered a risky pick because he had only played 10 games over his last two years in college. Overall an up and down year for Stingley. Houston did also add Jalen Pitre (a 2nd round pick in 2022 at safety). Pitre had an amazing rookie year under the tutelage of Danna, with 147 tackles, 5 INTs, and 1 sack. And as the new safeties coach, I'm sure he at least weighed in on drafting Pitre. And we will probably be looking to draft some safeties over the next couple of years ourselves. Plus: Salgado had 6 years NFL experience, all with the Bills. 3 years as a defensive assistant, 2 years as Nickels coach, and 1 year (2022) as safeties coach. Danna has 15 years NFL experience with 5 teams. 2 years as a defensive assistant, 9 years as DB/secondary coach, 1 year as a Nickel coach, and 3 years coaching safeties. That's a lot more experience. And the idea of Salgado being a scapegoat is just silly. Did any fan or media pundit say, oh good we got rid of Salgado, yeah he was the problem. Most didn't even know who he was before he got fired. So, why would McDermot and Beane think this move would appease the blood of the masses (which is what a scapegoat is for), especially when he had the excuse of all of the injuries. No, this wasn't a PR move, it was a football move.

You must be joking, right? I have pretty much stayed away from the board since the Cincy loss because of all of the negativity (just peak in here and there), and yet I have still seen tons of posts calling out McDermott and many saying it is time to move on/fire him, or at least saying he should be on the hot seat, or analyzing the mistakes he's made, or what he did wrong. You, yourself, have been calling out McDermott pretty consistently. This just seems like a thinly-veiled "Fire McDermott" or "I don't like McDermott" rehash thread. And the "neither am I" in bold, red font makes me think of Shakespeare. "The lady doth protest too much, methinks"

Who knows what went on internally, but I wonder if one of the main issues actually was Jaquan Johnson. Obviously, Hyde and Poyer are practically coaches themselves back there, so things always seemed smooth. But when we had to turn to the young guys, Jaquan was obviously not ready. And though Damar was a tough SOB (especially for his size) when it came to hitting and tackling, maybe his coverage skills did not improve throughout the year. Maybe Salgado was good at getting his guys to implement the scheme/gameplan and things like that, but isn't great at teaching/developing players. And as someone said upthread, over the next few years with Poyer's age/contract, Hyde's age, and the salary cap, we may have a lot of young safeties that will need to be coached up. I don't think Salgado was some kind of scapegoat, my guess is some coaching deficiency may have been revealed throughout this season and they wanted an upgrade. Of course, I know nothing of Joe Danna at this point, but to look only at the teams he's coached for and their record to judge him is very short-sighted. Gotta dig deeper (a position coach is not responsible for overall team record). Who has he coached up, what is his reputation amongst other coaches and players, is he known as a good teacher, etc.? As I said, I don't know anything about him yet, but I am not going to pan the hire until we know/hear/see more.

Yes, 22-8 record over the last 30 games. But to the OP's point, on a broader scale: Since 2020 (last 3 seasons): Our record is 41-14 for a winning percentage of 74.55% Only two of those 14 losses were blowouts (2020 vs. Tenn 42-16; 2021 vs. Ind 41-15) Only 3 double-digit loses in 55 games (includes 2020 AFCCG loss to KC by 14). In the other 11 losses, the average point differential was 4.3 points (with three OT games) [So, in 3 seasons, there have only been 3 games that we didn't either win or have a chance to win late in the game.] Point differential over those 3 seasons: +519, or +9.44 points per game 3 playoff appearances, 4 playoff wins (thus far) The best of times is indeed NOW...enjoy the ride.

And they are 5th best in the league at total first downs allowed this season. Obviously, not all first downs are converted on third down...but just another stat to show that the defense has been better than some fans perceive. The Bills D is 1st overall in total yards against, 2nd overall in points allowed, tied for 3rd overall in yards per play allowed, tied for 3rd overall in turnovers created, 2nd overall in opponent red zone conversion %, 5th in total first downs allowed, 6th in 3rd down conversions allowed, tied for 9th in sacks (though 13 teams have more sacks than we do, 4 teams with the same # as we have)...maybe a more honest stat is pressure percentage, where the Bills rank 14th. The league scoring average for 2022 was 22 points per game. So, basically half the league scores 22 points or more per game. The Bills defense allowed 17.875 points per game. Only 5 offenses in the league averaged fewer than 18 points per game. Nine of our games were against teams that averaged at least 21.2 points per game this year, yet the Bills only allowed 5 teams to score more than 21 points and didn't allow anyone to score more than 26 (Minn had a defensive TD). The Bills defense held 12 of 16 teams below their own team's 2022 scoring average. So, the Bills defense is middle of the pack in QB pressures/sacks (the Miller, Hyde, White injuries play a big part in that of course), but by pretty much every other metric, the Bills are at least a top 5 defense (if not top 2 or 3). Of course it's frustrating when they give up a third and long play, but overall, they are still giving up fewer yards, first downs, and points than almost any other team in the league, so those plays have to be put in perspective. Eleven of the 2022 playoff defenses have a worse 3rd down conversions allowed percentage than the Bills (only Balt and the NY Giants were better). One thing I would look at though, if I were a defensive coach, are those boundary screens. We've given up a few 3rd and longs on those plays this year. https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2022/opp.htm https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/points-per-game

AFC playoff QBs ages (average age = 25) Mahomes 27 Allen 26 Burrow 26 Herbert 24 Lawrence 23 Jackson 26/Huntley 24 Tua 24/Thompson 25 NFC playoff QBs ages (average age = 30; although Brady skews this quite a bit) Brady 45 Hurts 24 Purdy 23 Prescott 29 Cousins 34 Jones 25 Smith 32

No, but Miami, New England, and Detroit are still alive in the playoff picture, and that was 3 out of 4 games (with a win vs. the Jets sandwiched in between). And earlier in the year they beat Baltimore, Pittsburgh, and Kansas City consecutively. (Bal and KC are in the playoffs and Steelers could still make it). No question, if we have to play both the Bengals and Chiefs, it will be a hard road...but this team is battle-tested and motivated...and I still believe they are the most well-rounded team in the AFC. Our secondary is depleted, no doubt, but there are many ways to win games. Josh Allen 1st and foremost, the run game and short yardage pass game (play keep away from the excellent passing teams), the defensive line being majorly disruptive, etc. I'm not automatically conceding anything to the Chiefs or Bengals. They won't be easy games, by any means, but we are still good enough to beat both of those teams.

I voted keep the bottle...but wagon127 has your answer. Don't open it for the first playoff game, save it for either an AFC Championship win (what it should have been opened for) or for a Super Bowl victory. But this time, leave it in the damn refrigerator until the game clock reads 0:00. At least we now finally know who to blame the 13 seconds fiasco on...Gugny, you darn jinx. 😁

Praying for Damar, along with all of BillsMafia and the nation. 🙏

That is a projection in your own head only. We have a top 5 defense, Stefon Diggs, a top kicker, an excellent punter, decent special teams...even if you think the rest of our team sucks (O-line, WRs, TEs, RBs, etc.), which they don't, to say they would be lucky to get a losing record (8-9) if you swapped a prime Alex Smith for Josh, seems a bit over the top to me. Obviously, they wouldn't be asking Smith to do what Josh does. The offense would be tailored to Smith and look much different. He would be more asked to manage the game. But there is nothing saying that he couldn't get us to 10 wins and a Wild Card playoff loss (like he did with KC the year before Mahomes took over). Hell, Tyrod Taylor got us to the playoffs with a much less-talented team than we have now. Plus, our defense has held 10 teams to 20 points or under, and have only allowed two teams to score more than 25. Are you telling me that Alex Smith (instead of Josh) on this team couldn't score 21 points? The current league average is 21.5 points per game. Do you really think this offense couldn't be at least average with a prime Alex Smith? To think this team falls to a 7-10 record or worse with a solid/competent (not great, but not terrible) QB...no, I'm not buying it. No question Josh pulls off miraculous plays that Smith never could, but just having a great QB doesn't automatically get you to 12, 13, 14 wins without a solid team around him. Look at the Packers this year. Josh is what makes this team elite, but they are still a good team with a lot of talented players regardless. I'm not saying there aren't positions that could or will need upgrading (O-line definitely), but this idea that it is all Josh and everyone else on the team sucks is just not rational thinking. Nor that the Bills have ignored offense to draft/bring in defensive talent. Since Beane got here, they have brought in the same number of offensive players as they have defensive players. And, at the end of last year, the offense was humming, with two almost perfect games. Yet, our defense was getting gashed by the run and couldn't get any pressure on opposing QBs. That was a very good reason to focus on improving the defensive line first and foremost in the off season. And it has made a difference (we are 4th vs. the run this year and 11th in sacks---a big improvement). You can't fix everything every off season. And all teams have holes or positions they would like to upgrade, that is not unique to the Bills. And teams are constructed differently. You can look at a team like Cincy and say, man, they have three great receivers. Why can't we have that many good receivers. But they may have sacrificed upgrading a different area on their team to get the receivers, so we would have an advantage against them in that part of the game. Sometimes you have to look at the bigger picture. And as a GM, you are making a lot of gambles too...not every one pays off, but if enough of them do, then you are right where the Bills are right now.

What about being happy about a win regardless of whether there were big pass plays or not. Does it really matter how they get the win? If Motor and Cook run for 200 yards again, and/or the defense plays lights out, and that means Josh only passes for 150 (with no bombs), but they win...then I'd still be very happy. Whereas I feel like you would come on here and say, yes, I'm happy about the win, but our team sucks, there's no way we're winning a Super Bowl like this, etc. Just get the W any way you can. That's the NFL. No one gets anything for style points.