colin

ok, i stand corrected about the only one, but i still think they have a much more complete roster than most teams, including the bills. if wentz comes back to form i think the bills would need to be a better team than they were last year to beat them.

because no body is perfect. look at the team stats, w old man rivers at qb they were the only team in the playoffs w a top 10 O and top 10 D, and they gave us a real good shot, but josh allen pulled off a miracle and the D finally made a second half stop. KC has a sick roster, but it's stars and then just whoever everywhere else on the roster. indy has more breadth than anyone else, that's how it makes sense.

wentz looked like a guy with his one foot out of the nfl last year, but if reich can get him to play well, the colts really do have the most complete roster in the NFL. maybe less super star individuals, but just outstanding linemen, linebackers, solid RB and TE, decent WR, can cover some (perhaps their real weakness), and a really smart coach w a balanced game plan. i really hope the big super talent rookies we drafted will gel enough so that by the playoffs they can be weapons so we can impose a little will on teams like the colts and win it walking away once we are up large in the 2nd half.

when he fell to the 2nd, i was so hopeful we'd draft him. i bot the line on ford tho, thought/hoped he'd be the deathstar at OG or RT. i think our FO has positions they care about, and positions they don't wrt draft capital and max potential. w the exception of gabe davis, knox (lol), and the two RBs that everyone didn't feel too good about at the end of last season, all of our skill position talent, and clearly our best guys and a strength of the team, are FA or trades.

i remember reading over some post, on some carolina thing that linked to a philly site, talking about mcd D. basically, his blue print is he looks for steady smart players in the back 7, with more sort of freak talent closer to the ball, and more emphasis on skills as you move out further. the lynch pin of the whole thing is the DL. every place he's been he's had success, and in ever instance it came from rotating in like 7-10 deep DL players who can follow his schemes to create pressure in a disciplined manor and mess up the run game enough for his back 7 to be heat seeking missiles. we had that in 19, and mcd had that everywhere else he went. with the big spending last year (on duds, sadly) and the draft picks this year, and the attempt to sign watt all tell me he is simply not happy w what is DL looked like last season. we all dump on edmunds, but i remember watching the cover 1 breakdown of the afc chip game, and there were 3rd down plays and big run gainers where the interior DL just straight up took the wrong gap making the near impossible job of our MLB totally impossible. as for coverage, i think a young guy on the roster is gonna be cb2, and there rest is solid if lacking depth. on O, it's safe to say that our brain trust thinks tackles and C are important, with C being a big step back from OT, and Gs are kinda just guys. we are returning one of the better pass blocking OT tandums in the nfl, and threw 2 draft picks on athletic freak project OTs. i just hope w everyone returning hopefully one of our TEs and RBs wake up and see the opportunity of just stealing yards form NFL D's who are hell bent on stopping the pass in front of them. at some point, one of these young guys just has to step up and make themselves indefensible. that quick RB we signed could make himself a hero by ripping off some strong runs while staring down a 6 man box.

lol, going through the teams that need qb, texans popped into my head, but lol.

so, arguing about if rogers is a baby or the goat who was hard done by, can this even happen? anyone got an insight as to what team might end up going for him? although it won't ever happen, i think if he went to cleveland they'd be a top 3 team to win the chip this year.

i don't really have a strong opinion on this, did gb f up or is rogers a baby? could be both! i gotta say tho, i'm liking the holy war going on in this thread! i really don't get how people get so passionate about players and teams who aren't the bills. if they aren't the group you have a rooting interest in, i just can't see how someone cares. good bantz tho! i dunno dude, i figure they are just really conservative and don't want to lose rogers, and based on what i've read it seems like he's always whining and aching over something, so maybe they thought this would pass. they kept rogers on the pine for a couple few seasons w favre as the starter, and then he came on like gangbusters.

not sure what kind of draft capital it's gonna take to get rogers, but it would be a huge haul. if rogers leaves, and the new picks power up GB to go get another chip, and that new qb looks good, that franchise really has to be considered the greatest/luckiest ever.

i wasn't aware of that on the cap, although i suspect the inside expectations are much higher (see cowboys paying dak). also, i was talking about teams who pay the 5th year option but let the guy walk after. i was wondering how common that was.

dude, i take a dump on edmunds fairly often, but this is very true. what kinda changed my mind a bit (from like maybe to let's give it a shot anyhow) was his interviews at the end of the season. he was really critical of himself. not eeor style down in the dumps, but reflective and just not satisfied. given his age and obvious talent, and his absolute no excuse for himself (a season when the team went to the afc chip game and he was hurt too boot) mentality makes me think he will leave no stone unturned in trying to be the best he can

for a low enough pick, or as pointed above an excess player and really low pick, i'd do it. we have what, 2 TEs on the roster who played at all last year?

i think with the guys to come off the books and the new replacements we just drafted who will be dirt cheap, we have enough cap to just pay edmunds his option next year. to not pay it would be to create a hole, not smart when you think you are in a prime window for a chip. given how flippin young dude is, i really think the bills are making him earn his second contract through all 5 years. if he shows just insane consistent play this season then yah, he gets an early extension, but if his next two years are like his last two years (some good, some regression, some pretty bad) then i bet he walks after year 5. does anyone have stats on how often a 1st pick is extended to year 5, but then not resigned by his drafting team? i think we did that w gilmore, but i think it's not that common.

agree with ethan in crazy town, unless he straight unsat milano (and how much of an upgrade could he possibly be in his first year? might not even be better tbh) he'd play a few snaps as our like dime linebacker, which means we'd be a modified 4-2 in dime, and we are a straight 4-2 in base, so we'd have to take other starters off the pitch. he's a good looking player, assuming he can do it i suppose he could be like the honey badger kid from lsu, but i think he's more of a close to the line guy, and would still be making a position change.

i don't get it. did someone go rogue and make the wrong pick?

normally i think of these player position swap things as a bit of a pipe dream, but seeing what vrabel did in NE, and that groot played WR in HS, he and knox on the edges w 2 wrs and a single back and JA17 might be a kinda of indefensible goal line formation.

this thread is a tomahawk dunk and hanging off the rim. noice!

after looking at some more highlights and breakdowns of this kid, i get a kinda sorta jared allen feeling. guy had slipperyness, but not great athletic numbers, and he was as long as a tree. once he learned to use his hands and feet together to disrupt the OL, he was an absolute beast at getting sacks. he doesn't have the "explosive" numbers of oweh and others, but he runs super quick out the gate, so if he can use his hand placement and jab steps to get the OL off balance, he still has plenty of speed to take the shorter route and the long arms to wrap up the qb. i kinda like it!

we've dumped money and draft picks at the line, results were good for 2 years, meh to bad for one year. i remember the philly and carolina ds which mccoach ran. he's all about waves of d linemen being fresh and playing as a team concept, but clearly values disruptive star players. he likes athletic LBs who can do it all and clean up underneath. what's interesting is altho that Boston college LB he drafted in carolina is celebrated the most (and he deserves it), when crazy man greg kraken hardy was lost to them, their d fell off much harder than what the LB was out. i b word and moan about our scheme on d perhaps a bit too much, but it really is a 1/11 type of thing, he dials up everything from the ball out, and his secondary is much more about sound coverage and taking away big plays than dice rolling and bump and run type aggression, so i think he's a guy who will always be throwing picks and money at the dline, because with the rotation we play with if any of the young guys show improve it will be on tape and they will gain burn. not sure if this kid is the best guy at our pick (no idea really, he could be) but mccoach has had enough success that i'd ride with our pick over anyone else today on the back of that.

im pretty flexible because unlike w josh allen i don't have as strong an opinion on this draft, but in terms of max value for the team, i have to think a CB who fits us well falling to 30, followed by a big nasty 1 tech, and then TE, OG, and edge (no order on that) is max improvement to our team. all our losses seemed to have one thing in common, instead of stopping the big plays (we were tops in the nfl stopping big passes, bad at stopping big runs) we allowed them, and sometimes in bunches (the near melt down vs the colts is an example). on O, production from RB or TE (both of which may need better blocking) is really what will improve an already great O. on D, our bend but don't break style works as long as it doesn't actually break. an upgrade at the last line of defense means it gets very hard for passers to make decisions, instead of just avoiding tre. also, aside from RB i think CB translates soonest from college to pros

meh, allen had poorer coaching and way less experience than 90+% of first round qbs. he also has much much more talent, and there are and were very clear patterns to his bad throws, got excited and his feet got wonky. some of these goofs don't see the forest for the trees. a guy like alex smith, great at some many things, but when he is in perf form the ball just doesn't quite get to exactly where he wants it with pop, can't improve upon his polished self, but a more raw guy can. it's kinda goofy to me how a more raw pass rusher or OL (jason peters anyone?) can bee seen as a player who can work on his craft and get much better, but somehow that analysis can't be done on a QB.

i look at draft picks like packs of baseball cards when i was a kid: they are exciting because they could contain some super special card, so the unknown part of it kinda increases the value. i think, particularly this year and with this FO, these guys are looking at each player like a sniper. bean clearly has total confidence in his scouts and coaches, and will do what he has to in order to get his guy. i think we see that even moreso this year, where they trade up down and around and for the first 3 picks get exactly who they want, even at what looks like a goofy cost. i'd rule nothing out at all, and i think draftnik 1st and 2nd round grades won't mean much.

im pretty down on motor, but a big truth is that our run blocking is weak. i do think if we draft someone who could eventually start at G or C in the next season (who is nasty anyhow) then we have a chance of improving the while run game right there.

pitts could end up being a HOF greatest TE to ever play the game, and getting more than 1000 yards and 8 TDs in his first year would still be beyond expectations, especially with all the wr weapons the bills have. obv he'd make the team better, but i just don't think it's likely a TE has as big of an impact as a top flight WR when you compare rookie year to rookie year, and even top flight WRs take time to really take the game over.

this baseball stat nerd trash has no place in football (ok, it has some place, but not like in baseball). for data to be applied meaningfully for statistics, you either need a huge amount of it, or you need "quality" data where everything is as close to IID (independent and identically distributed) as possible. for pitching in baseball, the height of the mound, distance to the batter, and pitch conditions are as close as makes no difference to identical, and there is no time pressure on the pitcher. there is enough data for stat nerds to get a bunch of it for all different situations (number of runners on bases, vs different handed batters, after a certain number of pitches, whatever). in football, the formation of the O vs the formation of the D changes a lot, you can get a chunk of data vs say a blitz, or a specific coverage type, but the players on the field for both teams, down and distance, time left in the game, time left on the play clock, score of the game, and weather and field conditions are all over the place. you also have different play calls for both the O and the D, and sadly you have various levels of injury to the different players on the field. given these conditions and variables upon variables, you have to actually scrub all your data, which means watching film and breaking things down. even then, you don't see all of the factors (injury data, which play was called or changed pre snap, etc). if you watched film of josh allen in college, you noticed (as was pointed out succinctly in this thread) when he had his feet right, he was magic w the ball. you also saw him buy time and run around like a man possessed. when he got goofy w his feet, the ball came out wrong. he did that too often, and too often in his first two seasons (still does it sometimes, but look at mahomes in the super bowl and you know pressure and conditions in the game will break anyone's mechanics). the "excuse" for that was clear, he was raw and IMO not coached well enough in college. when all those former NFL qb's did their tests on accuracy in very controlled conditions, he blew everyone else out of the water. now, people have opinions, and that's fine. aikman figured allen couldn't be accurate as recently as the past season (he's a goofy boozer trying to relive his glory days while simultaneously drinking away the memories of his shameful past), but at least aikman has throw a couple footballs. these noodle armed needle peened dorks who vomit neck bearded snark all over the internet take dirty data, shove it into their toy models as if it were IID and clean, and fart out intelligence lowering drivel and then double down on it like they double up on their estrogen filled hop sludge meme beers and novelty food into their chubby unsculpted maws. they are not to be taken seriously, and they suck.