colin

i don't get it. did someone go rogue and make the wrong pick?

normally i think of these player position swap things as a bit of a pipe dream, but seeing what vrabel did in NE, and that groot played WR in HS, he and knox on the edges w 2 wrs and a single back and JA17 might be a kinda of indefensible goal line formation.

this thread is a tomahawk dunk and hanging off the rim. noice!

after looking at some more highlights and breakdowns of this kid, i get a kinda sorta jared allen feeling. guy had slipperyness, but not great athletic numbers, and he was as long as a tree. once he learned to use his hands and feet together to disrupt the OL, he was an absolute beast at getting sacks. he doesn't have the "explosive" numbers of oweh and others, but he runs super quick out the gate, so if he can use his hand placement and jab steps to get the OL off balance, he still has plenty of speed to take the shorter route and the long arms to wrap up the qb. i kinda like it!

we've dumped money and draft picks at the line, results were good for 2 years, meh to bad for one year. i remember the philly and carolina ds which mccoach ran. he's all about waves of d linemen being fresh and playing as a team concept, but clearly values disruptive star players. he likes athletic LBs who can do it all and clean up underneath. what's interesting is altho that Boston college LB he drafted in carolina is celebrated the most (and he deserves it), when crazy man greg kraken hardy was lost to them, their d fell off much harder than what the LB was out. i b word and moan about our scheme on d perhaps a bit too much, but it really is a 1/11 type of thing, he dials up everything from the ball out, and his secondary is much more about sound coverage and taking away big plays than dice rolling and bump and run type aggression, so i think he's a guy who will always be throwing picks and money at the dline, because with the rotation we play with if any of the young guys show improve it will be on tape and they will gain burn. not sure if this kid is the best guy at our pick (no idea really, he could be) but mccoach has had enough success that i'd ride with our pick over anyone else today on the back of that.

im pretty flexible because unlike w josh allen i don't have as strong an opinion on this draft, but in terms of max value for the team, i have to think a CB who fits us well falling to 30, followed by a big nasty 1 tech, and then TE, OG, and edge (no order on that) is max improvement to our team. all our losses seemed to have one thing in common, instead of stopping the big plays (we were tops in the nfl stopping big passes, bad at stopping big runs) we allowed them, and sometimes in bunches (the near melt down vs the colts is an example). on O, production from RB or TE (both of which may need better blocking) is really what will improve an already great O. on D, our bend but don't break style works as long as it doesn't actually break. an upgrade at the last line of defense means it gets very hard for passers to make decisions, instead of just avoiding tre. also, aside from RB i think CB translates soonest from college to pros

meh, allen had poorer coaching and way less experience than 90+% of first round qbs. he also has much much more talent, and there are and were very clear patterns to his bad throws, got excited and his feet got wonky. some of these goofs don't see the forest for the trees. a guy like alex smith, great at some many things, but when he is in perf form the ball just doesn't quite get to exactly where he wants it with pop, can't improve upon his polished self, but a more raw guy can. it's kinda goofy to me how a more raw pass rusher or OL (jason peters anyone?) can bee seen as a player who can work on his craft and get much better, but somehow that analysis can't be done on a QB.

i look at draft picks like packs of baseball cards when i was a kid: they are exciting because they could contain some super special card, so the unknown part of it kinda increases the value. i think, particularly this year and with this FO, these guys are looking at each player like a sniper. bean clearly has total confidence in his scouts and coaches, and will do what he has to in order to get his guy. i think we see that even moreso this year, where they trade up down and around and for the first 3 picks get exactly who they want, even at what looks like a goofy cost. i'd rule nothing out at all, and i think draftnik 1st and 2nd round grades won't mean much.

im pretty down on motor, but a big truth is that our run blocking is weak. i do think if we draft someone who could eventually start at G or C in the next season (who is nasty anyhow) then we have a chance of improving the while run game right there.

pitts could end up being a HOF greatest TE to ever play the game, and getting more than 1000 yards and 8 TDs in his first year would still be beyond expectations, especially with all the wr weapons the bills have. obv he'd make the team better, but i just don't think it's likely a TE has as big of an impact as a top flight WR when you compare rookie year to rookie year, and even top flight WRs take time to really take the game over.

this baseball stat nerd trash has no place in football (ok, it has some place, but not like in baseball). for data to be applied meaningfully for statistics, you either need a huge amount of it, or you need "quality" data where everything is as close to IID (independent and identically distributed) as possible. for pitching in baseball, the height of the mound, distance to the batter, and pitch conditions are as close as makes no difference to identical, and there is no time pressure on the pitcher. there is enough data for stat nerds to get a bunch of it for all different situations (number of runners on bases, vs different handed batters, after a certain number of pitches, whatever). in football, the formation of the O vs the formation of the D changes a lot, you can get a chunk of data vs say a blitz, or a specific coverage type, but the players on the field for both teams, down and distance, time left in the game, time left on the play clock, score of the game, and weather and field conditions are all over the place. you also have different play calls for both the O and the D, and sadly you have various levels of injury to the different players on the field. given these conditions and variables upon variables, you have to actually scrub all your data, which means watching film and breaking things down. even then, you don't see all of the factors (injury data, which play was called or changed pre snap, etc). if you watched film of josh allen in college, you noticed (as was pointed out succinctly in this thread) when he had his feet right, he was magic w the ball. you also saw him buy time and run around like a man possessed. when he got goofy w his feet, the ball came out wrong. he did that too often, and too often in his first two seasons (still does it sometimes, but look at mahomes in the super bowl and you know pressure and conditions in the game will break anyone's mechanics). the "excuse" for that was clear, he was raw and IMO not coached well enough in college. when all those former NFL qb's did their tests on accuracy in very controlled conditions, he blew everyone else out of the water. now, people have opinions, and that's fine. aikman figured allen couldn't be accurate as recently as the past season (he's a goofy boozer trying to relive his glory days while simultaneously drinking away the memories of his shameful past), but at least aikman has throw a couple footballs. these noodle armed needle peened dorks who vomit neck bearded snark all over the internet take dirty data, shove it into their toy models as if it were IID and clean, and fart out intelligence lowering drivel and then double down on it like they double up on their estrogen filled hop sludge meme beers and novelty food into their chubby unsculpted maws. they are not to be taken seriously, and they suck.

trading up for etn or some rb is worth it if the guy is some kind of electric gets off the bus breaking ankles talent. i really don't know if that's the case or not. if we bundle te/wr/rb into "playmakers" then if the top of the prior two positions are gone at pick 30, it does make sense for us to take the best playmaker on the board, be he RB or owthersie. the next thing, and this is where i wonder if beane gets too fixated on one guy and misses this sometimes, is the relative value of who is left. if you see a starting solid cb2 at 30, even tho he's the 3rd or 4th guy at his position being drafted, and the fall off is big after him, and like rb 5 is close to rb 3 or whatever in the draft, then obv you jump all over the cb. it wouldn't shock me if they think the 4th-8th edge and cb are close together, but the top rb or top 2 rb are head and shoulders above and they grab one of them. i agree with what was said here earlier, if they actually trade up for an rb he basically has to be a lights out game changer that is gonna put us over the top. kinda big ask.

good list, but wedding crashers todd continues to be woefully underrated. advanced metrics show that his unique painting skills should have him no lower than 3rd on your list, and i'd argue he's top 2.

i have to say, the rankings of the top 2 RBs here and in a few other places, is making me waffle even more than usual on taking one at 30. even tho the position is low value, and careers are short, and all of that, if we can get a guy w an impact like what henry has in Tenn, it improves our O and our D real quick. i wouldn't be mad if we took one.

basically, this. the nfl is a regulated trust. tbh, i think it's bs that they can negotiate a broadcast deal that does not allow for fans to get that content without opting for a specific servicer. the ticket on direct tv was awful. as a regulated trust, i should be able, as a consumer whom all regulations in the end are to service (obv that's not really case, i know), to see the games i want without having to opt to one particular service provider. over the top game sales, online, etc is basically necessary. given how subscription bundles and internet advertising has evolved, they should just let me buy games piecemeal or as a package, where i will watch the actual broadcast with ads and all from the provider who paid for the content. this is exactly what the streams do, and it's just a great example of the quagmire of bull that we deal with that this hasn't already been solved. rant over

no shot alpha. he bounced around college teams, and he rubbed teammates the wrong way in buffalo -- clearly he had attitude issues to start with. on top of that, he just wasn't good. the most locked on one guy qb i've ever seen. i remember the jets played the bills in toronto, think 2008. i had just moved back from NYC to toronto, was at the game (and recorded it to watch after. from where i was, it was kinda baffling what happened on the last play which would have won the game (jets were a sick team that year), where jp fumbled it. fouts commentary on the play was (essentially) "all the qb has to do is roll out and if his dump off isn't there, throw the ball away and punt, and then you have a perfect chance to win the tame. the dump off was not there, but instead of throwing the ball away, JP losman turned into JP losman, and held the ball, got sacked, fumbled the ball, and gave the game away". no coaching or development after a qb is drafted can turn a turd into a diamond. JP was a laughing stock since the day he got drafted, and all the haters were right.

odd trade. anyone know the value of the pick exchange? kc gets brown, drops 27 spots, and then a smattering of picks get sent away and an odd later round swap in 2022

you aren't wrong, but i think a fair part of us using so many WRs so often is our weak run game (if the run game is strong, passing out of running formations is better, since it is weak we just give up on making the d guess and load up w speed), and something that will impact both the run and the passing game directly is TE talent/production. a slight improvement in the run game (a better back would help, but i think better interior linema(e)n might be the secret sauce) and a TE (knox gets better? i hope) who can block and catch means we can do what our O is really designed to do, create match up problems and let the QB just dictate the flow of the game.

As he steps into Albacore he worries that he will lose his edge. To offset this, he has chosen to gone without socks, shoes, and sleeves during the buffalo winter. Few know the true stoic nature of the guido torpedo, the ascetic athlete we need but don't deserve.

this argument that every single nfl position can be at least reasonably evaluated, even if the team around them is cheeks, except qb is garbage. sure, a solid qb on a terrible roster will produce poor stat sheet numbers (year 1 allen), but you can watch the guy play and see what he has. rosen wasn't ruined by bad situations, he just sucks as an nfl qb. seems like a jerk, bad attitude, and most of all he's physically weak. as i've said since allen came into the nfl, he's FavrElway, is an absolute dog, and his sort of greatest general flaw of being sugar high josh is a symptom of his extreme energy and passion (just like Favre). as it has gotten under control he more and more has just taken games by the throat and went murder mode and won them. dilfer and the other QB types/coaches who worked with him coming out of the draft were pretty clear that in all the accuracy drills they ran the qbs through, allen was the best and in many cases was the only one to achieve the desired result of the test (talk of him hitting the crossbar/post on the uprights on one throw). he isn't and never was inaccurate, he just got sloppy and threw bad balls. when his head feet and hips are working correctly, he puts darts on targets (this is the Elway portion of his makeup, his straight up god given talent is off the charts). Allen is a stud and would be a stud on any nfl team, rosen is a bum and would be a bum on any NFL team. them's just the breaks.

meh, based on what i've read right here i kinda fade a top pick on RB, but if all the CBs, DTs, OGs, and DEs who the FO like are gonezo, and they think one oft these guys is a total day 1 beast, then it's not a terrible idea. the one consistent think IMO is our FO values premium positions (pass rush, cb, qb, OT) and freak athletes over all else, so it would be out of character for us to grab an RB that soon, but id expect them to have to be just an insane physical specimen

i get a feeling the bills might be really high on a player that mock drafts have rated lower, a 1 tech in particular. i don't really have any reason why, but given that they didn't do squat to get one in the off season, and mcdermot knows better than anyone how much his D needs lots of quality linemen making plays, i suspect they think they can get one in the draft who will be a keeper.

he's 100% gonna move up and or down, i'd bet up. question is, when and where? i think we have a solid shot at staying at 30, and only a move up a few spots as has been mentioned for not so early of pics would be on the table. i expect a move up in the 2nd or 3rd round. i could see us getting a 1st, a 2nd, and 2 3rd round players, because this roster is gonna be hard for rookies to make.

as far as i am concerned, edmunds is better than cunningham, so even if the latter's contract was a bit inflated, based on cap going up and such, he's worth in that context pretty reasonably.

the old timey pics you see of bare knuckle guys w their palms facing themselves shows a little bit of what is necessary to fight bare knuckle and not get murked. totally different mind set