dave mcbride

Good post. As for gambling on guys with that upside but modest stats, I give you https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/dk-metcalf-1.html.

Stevie Johnson and TJ Houshmandzedah (sp?) were both 6'2" -- not giants, of course, but still reasonably tall. They were very productive for decent stretches. Both were 7th rounders. TO was a big, big guy and was drafted late in the 3rd. It's not the fifth, but he way overperformed his draft slot. Also, Brandon Marshall - 6'4" and drafted in the 4th round. https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/M/MarsBr00.htm

Recap: it sucks.

Yes, very easy to search. 36th among ALL defensive players is great. However, the player who gave up the highest rating in the entire league? Yikes - Damar Hamlin. 142.3 rating against him. https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2022/defense_advanced.htm (for others who are interested, sort by the rating tab). Yeah, sometimes we just say things.

Edit: the rating against Wallace was actually 73.0 and the completion rate against him was 53.2 percent. That is a good season by any standard. https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/W/WallLe00.htm

74.6 is actually great. An 80 passer rating is the new Mendoza line and the very best defenses generally have overall team defense passer ratings in the mid-70s. The collective passer rating against SF's defense last year was 82.7.

He also dropped a pass in the Vikings game on the Bills' final drive but the refs didn't review the call due to the Bills hustling to get the next play off (it was ruled a catch on the field even though it wasn't). And on the pick Allen threw in his own end in the first Jets game, I'd bet a lot of money that Davis ran the wrong route. Allen threw it in the opposite direction from which he turned. The next time they ran that play a game or two after that, he ran to the opposite spot of where he ran in the Jets game.

OJ's biggest weakness was fumbling -- he was a fumbling machine. He had 62 fumbles on 2,607 touches. By way of comparison, Frank Gore had 46 fumbles on 4,219 touches. Emmit Smith had 61 fumbles on 4,924 touches. Marshall Faulk had 36 fumbles on 3,503 touches. As you may know, McDermott is highly allergic to fumblers.

As I've said elsewhere, I expect Miller to be basically fine, health-wise.

You think Epenesa can take the next step? He was sneakily not that bad last season (5 passes defensed and 6.5 sacks while playing 38 percent of snaps). Not saying he'll ever be great, but with more playing time he could be an 8.5-sack guy. That's not elite, but it's certainly decent production from your third best pass rusher.

I also think that what gets baked into these numbers is the not-infinitesimal chance that a key player can go down for any team. The Niners were expected to win probably 12 games in 2020 but won only 4 because of injuries. That can happen to any team. Allen could go down, for instance, and if he does, the Bills will be f**ked.

They are a brutally boring team. I personally thought that giving judge all that money was crazy given that he's likely entering his decline phase given his age (e.g., Stanton and Pujols). I'm not opposed to spending all that money, but I would have spent it on a few upper tier players in their 20s rather than on just one massive-frame player who just turned 31. And how predictable was Stanton going down with another muscle-related injury?

He's really good at getting down when all hope for further gain is lost and thereby avoiding the big hits. Diggs is phenomenal in that respect too.

I guess I never realized how productive of a career Graham had - https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/G/GrahJi00.htm. He always seemed vaguely disappointing to me, but I had forgotten those monster seasons he had in NO. I just don't think Russell Wilson was the right QB for him. Wilson at his best was a guy who would let the play break down and then effectively play street ball, and for a number of years he was the best at it in the league. Mobility for that style of play is required, though. Anyway, TEs tend to not get as much love as downfield receivers in street ball.

Murray went to Onondaga Central High School (south of Syracuse and on the edge of the Finger Lakes). He's had a pretty solid career as a second tier RB: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/M/MurrLa00.htm. Perhaps most importantly, he's had 10 fumbles on 1,703 touches in his career, which is a very low rate. And he's only fumbled three times in his last 1,075 touches, going back to the beginning of the 2017 season (by way of comparison, Devin Singletary has fumbled 13 times on 817 total touches). That is extraordinarily low, and people should never underestimate the value of the avoiding-fumbles skill for NFL coaches. The running game is supposed to be safe. Turnovers are OK in the passing game because the rewards are so much higher, but not in the running game where you're assuming a little over 4 yards per play on average.

Thank you. I have been saying this since the immediate post-mortem of that game, yet some fans continue to simply look at the scoreboard and think it was a different game than it actually was. You neglected to mention that the Dolphins' team passer rating that game was a beyond-terrible 41.8 (18-45 for 189 net yards; 1 TD and 2 INTs). Detroit was one of the best teams in the NFL in the second half of the season.

Freeney definitely. He was shut down by Bryant McKinnie in a Miami-Syracuse game in his senior season and the view was that against real competition he was shown to be a paper tiger. He had a much better career than McKinnie and should probably go to the HOF.

Not what I was saying at all. Come on. I just think that seeing a guy up close in a game featuring a team with a player you’re intensely interested in may have an effect on one’s opinion. And I also said it could be a coincidence. Fwiw, I like the pick a lot.

I dunno; bear in mind that unlike Fant he is on a team with a good vet TE that will be used too. Hard to compare a TE’s stats in a two-TE system vs one in which a single TE is getting most of the attention. Incidentally, Gronk was drafted 13 years ago and wasn’t drafted THAT far behind where Kincaid was drafted (42nd; second TE taken in that draft). He was a first round talent who dropped because of concern about his back (perhaps teams remember this and weren’t scared off by Kincaid’s back issue as a result). Anyway, in his rookie season he had 42 catches for 536 yards and 10 TDs. The next season, he 90 catches for 1327 yards and 17 TDs. The Pats lost that SB because he got hurt in the playoffs blocking for an XP. He was that valuable.

Legend has it that people who are injured eventually recover.

Addison was clearly the player we were targeting as per @Alphadawg7’s post, so I am assuming that the Bills’ scouts spent a LOT of time watching USC games. In the Pac-12 championship game vs USC this year, Kincaid had 16 catches on 16 targets for 234 yards in Utah’s victory. In the Cotton Bowl, Dorian Williams was the Defensive Player of the Game vs. USC in Tulane’s victory. Maybe it’s a coincidence, of course!

https://247sports.com/player/justin-shorter-84829/ He was a five-star recruit.

Me? OL, WR, LB. I think they're basically OK on d-line and there are some decent FA options out there. I expect Von to be 100 percent early on.

Going back to 2014, it's a very rare Super Bowl in which an elite TE isn't a key difference maker. 2014: NE over Seattle; Gronk has 6 catches for 68 yards and a TD 2015: Denver over Carolina; Not much TE presence (Manning threw for less than 150 yards) although Greg Olsen had an elite season for Carolina that year and was their best receiver on a 15-1 team (he had 4 catches in that game) 2016: NE over ATL; Martellus Bennett has 5 catches for 62 yards and draws what is effectively the game sealing PI in the EZ right before James White scores the winning TD 2017: Philly over NE - tight end-a-palooza: Gronk has 9 catches for 116 yards and 2 TDs and Ertz has 7 catches for 67 yards and a TD (he caught the crucial fourth down conversion throw on Philly's late go-ahead drive and the game winning TD) 2018: NE over LA; Gronk has 6 catches for 87 yards, including the two big receptions on NE's game winning drive in the fourth; also had two wipeout blocks that sprang Michel and Burkhead both for 26 yard runs on NE's final possession that sealed the game. 2019: Kelce has 6 catches for 43 yards and the game winning TD catch; Kittle has 4 catches for 36 yards 2020: Gronk has 6 catches for 67 yards and 2 TDs and Kelce has 10 catches for 133 yards (one of the only guys who showed up for KC in that game) 2021: the rare game where the TEs didn't matter. 2022: Kelce had 6 catches for 81 yards and a TD; Goedert had 6 catches for 60 yards

TJ Hockenson was very productive in his second season with the Lions too - 67 catches, 11 ypr, and 6 TDs.