dave mcbride

Like it or not, Ryan Tannehill and the TN passing game have been far more instrumental to TN's success than Henry. With a healthy Tannehill and AJ Brown, the Titans went 12-5 in 2021 and 30-13 overall with Tannehill as as starter between 2019 and 2021. With an unhealthy Tannehill, no AJ Brown, and a healthy and productive Henry, they went 7-10 in 2022 (and 1-4 in the games Tannehill was out). Prior to Tannehill's arrival, they were perennially slightly above average even with Henry, going 9-7 three straight years until canning Marriota six games into the 2019 season. In 2019, Tannehill became the starter after six games and went 7-3 with a 117.5 rating (Marriota had gone 2-4). Tannehill also got them to the conference championship game that year. Over the next two seasons, they went 23-10, and he had a great season in 2021 (106.5 rating). Point is, when the passing game improved, TN got better. When the passing game got worse, the TN running game (which was strong in 2022) could not save the day. The passing game rules the NFL.

It's not that they have nothing left in the tank; it's that it's easier to find replacements who perform at roughly the same level. College football is crawling with competent RBs, and the position is a lot less complex than, say, WR, where you have to develop a sophisticated route tree. Because of that, vet receivers have value even if they've lost a tenth of a second on their 40 time. With the RB position, you either have "vision" or you don't. There's always another fresh guy out there who can come in and do what most starting RBs can do. Also, the ones who can run routes well and function as good weapons in the passing game -- McCaffrey, Kamara, Le'veon Bell -- did in fact get paid. McCaffrey's contract turned out to be an albatross for Carolina because of the fact that he was oft-injured (during his first contract!) and didn't help them win. McCaffrey had one of the best RB season of any running back in the past dozen years in 2019 (2,392 yards, 19 TDs, 5.6 yards per touch/target). Yet they were a miserable team, going 5-11. Bell's contract was bad; he had ridiculous personal issues and ended up being banged up. He was an excellent receiver, however. And bear in mind that the Steelers replaced Bell with James Connor, who had 1471 yards from scrimmage and 13 TDs in his first season. The offense overall was excellent (4th in yards, 6th in points) despite being 31st in both rushing yards and rushing attempts. Kamara had a great first season under that contract (1688 yards; 21 TDs; 5.7 yards per touch/target) but declined a bit in 2021 and 2022. The league rewards the passing game.

He was literally eighth overall and sixth among running backs. You can't exclude receiving yardage when judging running backs. Pass catching ability and route running is literally why McCaffrey and Kamara got paid, which seems to be the root of your concern. https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2022/scrimmage.htm Kamara has a 5 year/75 million contract (a bad contract, btw; he's in decline) and McCaffrey makes over $16 million per year. Those are Hopkins/OBJ numbers. It's because they can catch the damn ball and make plays in the receiving game.

I think it's impossible to argue that WR quality doesn't affect QB play. GB went from having a great passing offense to a mediocre one when they let Adams get away last season. He's elite, and they had no replacement.

This. ^^

Any list of top 8 backs that doesn't include the undrafted Austin Ekeler is doing it wrong. He was 8th in yards from scrimmage and first in TDs (18). Regardless, we're talking past each other at this point. I think the following: a) although it still matters, of course, the running game is far less important than the passing game; b) running backs are easily replaced because there are so many competent ones, and virtually all teams think this way; c) individual player stats aren't the best way to measure production because most teams have RBs by committee; d) productive running games are primarily a product of good o-lines; and e) it is the height of foolishness to overspend on the RB position.

You can believe what you want to believe. Every GM in the league except for the dumb ones (Dave Gettleman) think the VORP of RBs is lower than that of practically of every other position given the glut of people who can play the position competently. College football is jammed with guys good enough to play RB in the NFL; it's why so many undrafted/late round pick RBs turn out to be fine. Wide receiver, cornerback, and defensive end? Not so much.

No, I'm referring to the undrafted Dontrell Hilliard, who has a large enough sample size over the past two seasons (78 carries for 495 yards for TN) to suggest that maybe individual star RBs' value is overrated. I believe that if they had let Henry go instead of AJ Brown, their offense would have been better last season. He's more valuable than Henry. But you don't have to believe me -- virtually every team in the league would agree with that view.

The guy behind Derrick Henry has averaged 6.3 ypc over the past two seasons. And it turns out that Tony Pollard was better than Zeke the last couple of years. To paraphrase Charles DeGaulle, the graves are filled with indispensable running backs. Nick Chubb doesn't win his team games; the passing game does. Same with Ekeler. Barkley finally played on a winner when the team hired a good passing-game coach -- Daboll -- and the QB stepped up his game (plus the team was very lucky in close games). In Barkley's best season by far, the team went 5-11. Chubb (much like Marshawn for the Bills) generally plays for losing teams -- the Browns have had losing seasons in four out of his five season there, and in their only winning season (2020), the QB actually had a good season (95.9 passer rating) that also turned out to be the best of his career. As for McCaffrey, he's a terrific receiver (not a third-option dump-off specialist), and hence he's paid accordingly. No position is easier to replace except maybe linebacker. Guards who can play decently are harder to replace. People really need wrap their heads around the concept of "value above replacement player" and the fact that there is an oversupply of decent running backs. I'm old enough to remember Mike Gillislee looking like a superstar for the Bills (calling out @BADOLBILZ!).

Yards per play and value over replacement player are what I care about. Just like in the NBA, where someone has to score the points, someone has to accumulate yards. I'll take the guy who gets 8-10 yards per attempt over the guy who gets 4.5. It's an efficiency thing. LBs generally lead teams in tackles yet they are the lowest paid defenders, and for good reason: they're the most easily replaced and aren't as valuable in the passing game as D-lineman and secondary players, and passing dominates the NFL. Raw numbers are meaningless.

I honestly don't care what they think -- like, at all. The simple fact of the matter is that RBs are complementary pieces in today's offenses and don't add much to a sophisticated passing game. There is one player that does -- McCaffrey, who runs a pretty complex route tree for a RB -- and he's paid accordingly. Good running backs don't make offenses good; good qbs, o-lines, and receivers do. Would I rather have a better one than a worse one? Sure, but just look at KC now. The scrub is at least as good as the first round pick right now. When Tannehill went down, TN cratered (combined with the stupid trade of Brown, which got the GM fired). When Henry goes down for any reason, the guy behind him -- Dontrell Hilliard -- does fine. He averaged far more yards per carry than Henry in both 2021 and 2022, and D'onta Foreman had the same ypc as Henry in 2021. Hilliard had 495 yards on 78 carries in 2021 and 2022 -- 6.34 ypc. The key concept here is value over replacement player.

He'd gain the fewest yards per touch of any player on the team that's not a RB. He would also have a highly limited route tree, which if you prioritize players like that really hurts your passing game. AJ Brown was far more valuable than him, and I think that's pretty clear.

The goofy mediocrity has to be public facing and actually deal with customers. Regardless of quality, the restaurant thinks that this person is more viable than you in terms of placement in a forward-facing position. Would the fry cook be happy? I guess not, but maybe he should learn how to be a cashier. Point is, there is no more replaceable position in the NFL than RB. Guys come in off the street all the time and look fine.

Knox is a better blocker and averaged 8 yards per target. Singletary averaged 4.8 yards per touch and target combined. 8 yards per play > 4.8 yards per play.

Good post. What do you think of this comment by Mahomes in the Netflix show? I trust Mahomes’ opinion about talent more than anyone on this board (no offense!): ‘After the Chiefs divisional round win against the Jaguars, Mahomes and company were awaiting the winner of the Bills vs. the Cincinnati Bengals divisional round clash. “I think the Bengals are better, but I think with all those injuries on the o-line that the Bills have a chance,” he said. Mahomes was asked who he would rather play between teams in the AFC Championship game. “I mean, I think we match up better versus the Bills, but I want to play the Bengals. I mean, I just want to play them, we haven’t beaten them, and I’m tired of their talking.”’ I am curious about “match up” here. Is he referring to the Bills’ defensive scheme vs Cincy’s? Or simply Ll the injuries on D that the Bills had by that point? https://www.newyorkupstate.com/buffalo-bills/2023/07/patrick-mahomes-explains-who-he-wouldve-rather-faced-in-the-2023-nfl-playoffs-bills-or-bengals.html

Same here, but it is the case that they currently have the best coverage of the Bills (at least in my opinion). I hate giving it up, but we're not paying that much for a newspaper that is peripheral to my life outside of Bills coverage. I'm up to my eyeballs in newspaper/magazine subscriptions anyway.

In the interest of shifting the subject away from truly bizarre and cringe-y boasting about intelligence and back to the main subject of the thread (newspapers), I found this interesting: https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/10/business/media/the-new-york-times-sports-department.html. The Athletic will be the NYT's actual sports section going forward now that the ages-old NYT sports section has been eliminated.

Agreed — without HGH, the injury lists would be completely out of control.

23-20. See above.

Not true. He is listed as 7-6 on his player page for 2015, and if you scroll down on the second link, you'll see that while the Bills went 8-8, he is listed as having won 7 games and Cassell 1 game. All of the Bills 8 victories were ones in which Taylor was the starter. Hence he was 23-20, as I said. https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/T/TaylTy00.htm https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/buf/2015.htm

Taylor was 23-20. For some asinine reason, the stats people at the NFL gave Matt Cassell the win in the 2015 opener because they started him at qb with tyrod split wide on a trick play for the first play of the game. It was a handoff and Cassell didn’t play another play for the rest of the game, yet he got credit for the win. Anyone with a half a brain would have clearly assigned the win to Taylor.

I think the larger issue is that some of the old legacy media, including magazines like SI,are really up against it and are turning into clickbait machines simply to pay the bills. SI's fall is starting to remind me of Newsweek, which used to be (along with Time) the highest-circulation serious mainstream magazine in the country. Those days are long gone. As for the NY Post and NY Daily News, they've always broken real stories but have also always thrived on sensationalist tabloid style coverage (ESPECIALLY the Post). And unlike, say, the NYT, have zero qualms about going full clickbait if it can capture a few bucks for them. The Times, WaPo, WSJ, and a couple of others don't need to do this, so they don't.

Joe B did too. See the previous page.

Well, Fitz is a pretty smart guy. I hear he went to Harvard ...