dave mcbride

The evidence is not overwhelming, and moreover you didn't provide any beyond anecdotal listing that is divorced from comparative context. As an experiment, I suggest looking at Bills' d-line picks in the first two rounds going back to 1970 and see how they panned out. Al Cowlings, John Parrella, James Patton, Dee Hardison, Scott Hutchinson, Eric Flowers, Ryan Denney, Walt Patulski, Phil Dokes, Aaron Maybin, and (I fear) Shaq Lawson -- the results probably won't be pretty. And let's not even talk about the QB position, where Todd Collins is the norm. My very basic point, which you have not refuted, is that RB is an easier position to project *relative to other positions*. This is because the athletic skills for the position are obvious and the positional demands limited in scope relative to other positions. For one, the rushing routes are a lot less complex than receiver routes, and they are less dependent on the qb for production than receivers. Again, the Bills have drafted 11 HBs. 8 were good to really good. 2 had flashes but disappointed. 1 had Guillaine-Barr syndrome. Also, in what world was Deuce McAllister not a good player? He ran for 1700 yards one year and had 4 1,000+ yard seasons. Addai had two excellent years too - twice at ~1,500 yards from scrimmage and PFR AVs of 15 and 14. Yes, he faded relatively fast, but he was a good player for a time.

The goalposts haven't been moved at all. You're just arguing for the sake of arguing at this point.

I don't have any evidence for this, but at the end of the day I think Darnold comes out. Too many people think he's the best prospect in the draft, and I think he'd go #1 overall if he leaves SC. I don't see how he can turn that up.

I think you're right. Cleveland for a host of reasons HAS to take a qb #1 overall whether they fully believe in the player or not, and the Giants are a franchise that just made it very, very clear that they're taking a QB #1 overall. Their history suggests that they may even move up to draft the guy they want if they can (i.e., trading their first, second, and third plus next year's first to move from 3 to 1 or 2, depending). They are a smart organization that lucked into a bad season when the upcoming qb draft was good. That's obviously the big problem for the Bills. It's great to think about in theory, but at the end of the day, teams at the top are likely to be absolutely committed to taking a QB early. And let's not forget that the last thing the Browns need is more draft picks. It's possible that they may even have too many at this point.

I think the wise move is to spend a crapload of draft capital in the one year we have it and get a franchise qb. A franchise QB is a dozen-year investment. If he pans out, he covers up everything else. I do not want to settle for Brady Quinn, JP Losman, Christian Ponder, or Brandon Weeden. If the team actually believes that one of the top guys is a sure-thing franchise qb, do what you have to do to get him. We will have the ability to do it for once this year. I still wince at the fact that the Bills couldn't muster up enough draft capital to trade up past Pitt in 2004 and get Roethlisberger, who they loved. The "economical move" doesn't really apply here because in football it's a winner-take-all market in which the QB is everything.

If Darnold were to come out, I strongly believe he'd go #1 overall.

I think Rosen LOOKS like the better pro prospect right now, but I think that Darnold IS the better pro prospect, if that makes sense: better size, better arm, better accuracy and arm strength while on the move when plays break down, and a slightly better release. This is not a critique of Rosen, who is also quite good at all of these things too. Bear in mind that USC is 19-3 in games that Darnold has started, and in the very first game he started - which SC lost 31-27 to Utah - he lit it up. He will throw the occasional pick, but he's 20. I think he's gonna be a monster pro. Check it out: http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000877512/article/ask-5-whos-better-nfl-prospect-sam-darnold-or-josh-rosen. Bear in mind that I like Rosen.

Word on the street is that Darnold (the best talent in the draft, and by a faigr bit) is leaning toward staying at USC.

Huh? Tanier is good.

Alright, let's look at a specific team -- our very own Buffalo Bills. Here are the Bills RB draft picks in the first two rounds going back to OJ: 1969: OJ #1; Bill Enyart #2 - OJ is an all time great; never heard of Enyart 1978: Terry Miller #1 - great, great rookie season; not sure why he cratered (I think injuries) 1980: Joe Cribbs #2 - great player 1981: Booker Moore #1 - bust, but IIRC he was diagnosed with Guillain-Barre syndrome shortly after being drafted. Bad luck. 1984: Greg Bell #1 - jerk but a very good player; had 18 TDs (!) in 1988 for the Rams 1986: Ronnie Harmon #1 - another jerk but a slightly-south-of-HOF caliber player (one of the better receiving backs in league history with 582 catches). 1988: Thurman Thomas #2 - HOF 1990: Carwell Gardner #2 - he doesn't really count because he was a FB and was drafted as such; it's the only position he played too. I'm not counting him. 1997: Antowain Smith #1 - very good career (7K yards); two excellent SB performances (92 yards and 83 yards respectively) in 2001 and 2003 2001: Travis Henry #2 - (over 6K yards) very good player with major personal issues that derailed his career 2003: Willis McGahee #1 - excellent career; 8500 yards 2007: Marshawn Lynch #1 - probably a HOF player 2010: CJ Spiller #1 - a disappointment, but it is the case that his 2012 season is arguably the best offensive single-season performance by a Bills offensive player this century (6.0 ypc; 10.2 ypc on 43 receptions--very high for a back) So, we have 12 RB picks. 9 were good-to-great players (3 HOF caliber); 2 flashed genuine greatness briefly (Spiller and Miller) but faded quickly; 1 was a bust (Moore), and 1 is a guy I couldn't tell you anything about because of the guy drafted before him (Enyart, drafted after OJ) That's a high hit rate by any stretch. Laughably, the Bills got rid of a lot of the guys who reached greatness elsewhere (including the Birmingham Stallions!). Cribbs, incidentally, had 2500 rushing yards and 80 receptions in two seasons with the Stallions. This occurred after his lawsuit against the Bills.

I think you're forgetting a lot of the anti-Kelly sentiment prior to the SB years. I'm not sure you were following the Bills closely in 1987, but (credible) rumors had spread far and wide that Kelly was hungover against the Pats in the second last game of the season. Losing that game knocked them out of the playoffs, and he played horribly. The pitchforks were definitely out. Fans can be brutal.

Depends. Reggie Bush was a first rounder with only 5490 rushing yards, but he had nearly 500 receptions and a lot of TDs. McGahee ran for 8500 yards; Curt Warner had a few truly dominating seasons before his career was cut short by injury. Just because they're not in the top 30, doesn't mean they're in "the rest," metaphorically speaking. My point is that the RB guys who really look like first round picks coming out of college tend to play more like first round picks in the NFL than players at other positions - that's because it's a relatively easy position to project given the desired skills.

I think the Ravens probably get in, but the Bengals are not out of it. They are 5-6 and one game behind the Ravens. They have a talented defense that can shut the Ravens down. I know the Ravens beat them earlier, but prior to this year's loss the Bengals had won 5 of their previous 6 games against Baltimore with more or less the same team as they have now.

Once you start looking at top producers at other positions, RBs do stand out for their high-pick ratio. Of course there are RB busts, just like there are busts at every position. I do think, however, that barring injury (a key caveat), there is no easier position to project than RB. Does the player have speed/power/cut ability/vision? Beyond that, they're not looking for much. Rocket surgery skills aren't a requirement.

Jim Kelly circa early 1993 and mid-late 1996, Thurman Thomas in mid-late 1994, Bruce Smith on numerous occasions (e.g., January 1996), and Andre Reed in 1999 beg to differ. They were all the recipients of a lot of extreme vitriol at various times in their career. Let's not sugarcoat history.

Not sure this has been posted, but I agree with the consensus in favor of Darnold. And I like Rosen! http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000877512/article/ask-5-whos-better-nfl-prospect-sam-darnold-or-josh-rosen

Call me crazy, but how is this not a good decision? What is the controversy? The 2-9 Giants, unlike the Bills, are completely out of it and in prime position to get a franchise qb in what I think is a great qb draft. Rallying around the flag late in the season with Eli and ending up 5-11 / 6-10 would be very bad for them. At this point, bottom out and put yourself in a position to trade up from the 2/3 slot to wherever it is you want to be (assuming you want to move up). That's how they got Eli in the first place, after all. Probably not the place for this, but I think Sam Darnold is the most talented thrower in this draft and will become elite as he matures. He has it all, and I think people should look beyond the rough edges.

I was a Webb fan too. He looked like a guy with legit pro potential while at Cal.

Going full Godwin. Wow.

Indy had a great running game - Edgerron James (hof-level production) and for a short period Addai. And marshall faulk for a year too. Polian always valued bell cow backs.

If no late round picks are in the top three dozen, and 75 percent are first rounders, then you have to deduce that they do get that position right. The wild card with the RB position is injury; talent isn't that hard to assess at that position. I maintain to this day that Kijana Carter, who had a brutal injury, would have been a great, but injury derailed it. There are a few first rounders that underperformed (Trent Richardson being the most obvious recent example), but I think that the high picks have a pretty high hit rate. Marshawn has 431 yards to go until 10K too. The Raiders are right back in it, so who knows? Maybe he'll do it this season. He's another high first round pick.

Let's not forget that one of the third rounders was Frank Gore, who was by all accounts a top-five talent before tearing up his knee. The only reason McGahee started that one year was because Gore was out. The other third rounder, Curtis Martin, missed most of his senior season too because of a knee injury (he played two games before going out for the season).

Scroll to the bottom and the embedded video. McVay gives the game balls to Aaron Kromer and Sammy W!

Interestingly, of the 29 rushers with 10K career yards, 23 were first rounders, 4 were second rounders, and 2 were third rounders. Shady (9712) will be #30 soon, and he was a second rounder. Matt Forte (9682) is very close too and was a second rounder. Anyway, just about all of the bell cow backs were first rounders, and the ones who weren't first rounders were pretty high picks too. Looks like that's one position where evaluators have gotten it right, historically.

Reggie Bush. He was a reasonably productive player that season (lots of catches; 400 yards rushing for a 5.6 ypc; 8 TDs). Thurman Thomas was a second rounder. Speaking of which, the second and third rounds seem like the sweet spot for me: Thurman, Leveon Bell, McCoy, Corey Dillon, Ricky Watters, Curtis Martin, Frank Gore, Tiki Barber, Clinton Portis, Matt Forte ... the list goes on. Lots of great value in those rounds.