dave mcbride

You'll get no argument from me about the talent issue!

He had no chance because he couldn't shake the defender. Anytime a defender is running alongside you, he's handchecking you and slowing you down. To get to full speed, you have to get past him. He didn't. Again, Allen is banking on the receiver to beat his man. He couldn't. He was blanketed until the end.

The issue was that Harty couldn't beat coverage. Allen is hoping he can, but he didn't. Teams have to take shots. Successful ones - and Allen had a ton of them last year - open everything else up. I can't fault him for this.

I'm going to push back slightly in the sense that you do need to take deep shots, and he had single coverage. When he threw it, he didn't know that the Bengals DB would keep up with Harty, but he did. Maybe he stumbles or bites or whatever, but in this case he didn't. Allen DOES need to throw the occasional bombs. The lack of success this year on those plays isn't a sign that he shouldn't do it given his success on these throws last season. Agreed. He made the right read. The receiver couldn't beat his man.

The thing is, he is fully capable NOW of being a TE who averages 11-12 yards a catch. They just don't utilize him that way. He was fantastic in college on seam routes, but they don't have him running them nearly enough. He is good enough already to be one of those TE touchdown machines, and it really needs to start now. He's clearly a pretty massive talent; don't waste it by feeding him a steady diet of five-yard dumpoffs. Push him down the field and allow him to make plays. He can do it.

I don't know about that. I think Douglas and Joseph are genuine upgrades, so I expect them to improve a bit. They have a real one-technique who can play and a CB who is good in zone and actually makes interceptions. They were missing both.

Don't focus on counting stats with him. Focus on his ability to anchor and allow other players to flow to the ball. He was a wrecking crew last season. I mean, that isn't even really debatable.

Huh? Jones was freaking phenomenal for all of 2022. He's without question one of the best players on the team. White was also playing extremely well before getting hurt. They've also had scattered injuries throughout too - Oliver out vs NE, Rousseau out vs the Giants, Bernard, Benford, and Hyde going out last night. They have been DECIMATED.

Also:

Just one turnover in five games will do that you ...

I dunno. Past ain't necessarily prologue and just because some number gets assigned to a window before it closes (five years for a head coach/QB), in the end it's just a number. Rules like that -- which aren't even rules but rather correlations -- are made to be broken. I'm not saying it's going to happen, of course; I just don't put any stock in it.

I kept the pre-free agency era teams out of this because it was far easier to keep elite teams together and there was a lot less parity. The Cowboys made it 17 out of 18 years between 1966 and 1983, and the one year the didn't make it they were 8-8 and led the league in yardage while finishing 4th in defense. The 1980s-mid 1990s 49ers were the same - missing it in 1991 with a 10-6 season in which they were 3rd in offense and 6th in D. As for that Bills team, it's true, but their late-season collapse in 1987 when they were one of the most talented teams in the league was pretty bad. And while they made the playoffs in 1989, there was a lot of wailing and gnashing of teeth about their performance that year (9-7 and the year of the bickering Bills).

In looking at the trajectories of other reliably good teams with franchise quarterbacks over long stretches of time (and excluding the Brady-led Patriots, who are a complete outlier), you can see that there are 1-to-2 year troughs for all of them. https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/pit/ Over 17 seasons with Roethlisberger, the Steelers had four 8-8 seasons, a 9-7 season, and a 9-6-1 season. They missed the playoffs all six times but made it the other 11 times. https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/nor/ Over 15 seasons with Brees, the Saints had five 7-9 seasons and an 8-8 season; they made the playoffs 9 out of 15 times. https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/gnb/ Over 15 seasons with Rogers, GB had a 7-9 season, a 6-9-1 season, an 8-9 season, and a 6-10 season (the last one to be fair was Rogers' first as a starter). They made the playoffs 11 out of 15 seasons. https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/sea/ In ten seasons with Russell Wilson, the Seahawks made the playoffs 8 times; they had a 9-7 season in which they didn't make it and a 7-10 season too (Wilson's final one). https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/rav/ In 11 seasons with Flacco (not the greatest QB, I know, but the team was always pretty deep in talent and had an excellent coach in Harbaugh), the Ravens made the playoffs 7 times; the times they didn't their records were 8-8, 8-8, 9-7, and 5-11. The Eagles under Andy Reid (with mostly McNabb but Vick too) missed the playoffs in 4 out of 14 seasons. The Colts with Manning made the playoffs 11 out of 12 seasons from 1999-2010; they missed it in 2001 with a very down 6-10 season (they year that Mora issued his "playoffs?!?" comment). They made it back in 2002 as a WC but lost 41-0 in the first round to the Jets. Point is, over long stretches, there are generally always "trough years" for franchise-QB teams who win a lot more than they lose. In an actuarial sense, it's to be expected. Not counting Allen's rookie season, the Bills have made it to the playoffs four years in a row. This year might well be one of those expected trough years, though. The stars simply haven't been aligned: they have an extremely difficult schedule, had the NFL assign them a "home" game that was really a road game, and suffered a bunch of injuries to elite players on their defense that probably cost them the game against NE. If there's one loss I can point to that may end up crippling the Bills, it's the divisional loss to a terrible Pats team where an undermanned defense was completely overwhelmed, allowing one of the worst QBs in the league to put up elite numbers. That's the loss that sticks with me. I never expected them to beat Cincy, so I can live with that loss.

Mike Shula strikes me as a more likely candidate if this were to happen. He has been an OC for 11 seasons and worked as OC while McDermott was the DC in Carolina. https://www.pro-football-reference.com/coaches/ShulMi0.htm

McDermott is going to be safe. If they end up 10-7 and make the playoffs, that's five straight playoff seasons and a regular season record of 72-42. Will they make the playoffs? I don't know, but I do think they should probably win the following games: Denver, Jets, NE, and Dallas (the Bills are undefeated at home and Dallas isn't that great). I am betting they win another somewhere, with the Chargers and Dolphins being the most likely candidates. Is it great? No. But he'll survive.

https://theathletic.com/5035485/2023/11/06/buffalo-bills-cincinnati-bengals-ken-dorsey/ This piece by Joe B seems to indicate that a change could actually be coming soon. He leans hard into everyone turning against Dorsey, from the players to McDermott. ‘And following the end of the game, there seemed to be a rather interesting shift in how things have sounded. The subtle messages are becoming less so. The frustration and exasperation is growing, and the words used have become tougher. After a great start to the game, in which the Bills averaged 12.1 yards per play on their opening drive, that dynamic offense went missing in action. They gained only 158 yards over their next eight drives, and watched as the Bengals slowly pulled away. “That can’t happen,” coach Sean McDermott firmly said of the offensive inconsistency. “Against a good football team that’s known for scoring points, and a good quarterback. We’ve got to be able to score points, and we didn’t do it enough.” McDermott has made some subtle comments like that since the London game. Even after their somewhat of a resurgence in Week 8 against the Buccaneers, McDermott raised some eyebrows when he said that every play “wasn’t an adventure.” But the subtleties are becoming less so. While the Bills found success going up-tempo the week before, they inexcusably went away from it until it was effectively too late in the game. Why didn’t they use it? “I don’t have a good answer for you right now,” McDermott said. “I’ve got to look into that.” There appears to be a lot more looking into things than usual, and it makes you wonder what’s next for the Bills. … It all leads to one point. The Bills might have arrived at where a big change is necessary before the season gets away from them. And with the offense flailing and seemingly out of answers, the time may be now for the Bills to change directions at offensive coordinator. [Next section is on Allen’s clear postgame exasperation and his subtle digs at the play-calling and game plan.] Why are these pieces of information important? Allen has been the loudest supporter of Dorsey, even in the face of criticism. But if Allen is out of answers and possibly losing confidence in Dorsey himself, then there may be no better reason to make a change than that one. After all, Allen is the straw that stirs the drink. Under Dorsey, the Bills have been utterly predictable and lacked the creativity that had been a staple with Brian Daboll. … The time for waiting to allow things to iron themselves out, or giving Dorsey enough time to find his footing as an offensive coordinator is quickly coming to a close. He now has 26 games under his belt calling plays, and is seemingly in the same evolutionary spot as he was to begin his career as an offensive coordinator. If there is no growth, and the offense is stagnating, a shake-up may be required. … With a Monday night game on the horizon, the Bills have an extra day to prepare should they make a change, and with a plum opponent in a below-average Broncos defense to get them the confidence they need heading into a brutal stretch of games. They have coaches on staff with the experience to take over if need be, but it all comes down to their choice.’ Lots of other comments in the piece too.

I don’t think it’s an overpay. Sweat is very good and plays a premier position. He’s also young. Trading a second was very questionable, but don’t assume they wouldn’t have had serious competition for his services in the offseason.

https://www.nbcsports.com/nfl/profootballtalk/rumor-mill/news/josh-mcdaniels-wasnt-happy-antonio-pierce-mentioned-giants-win-over-2007-patriots-in-team-meeting I LOVE this!

Well, the play was there on 3rd down. Should have been a td.

I don’t think teams ever look all that great in Europe. Baltimore looked pretty ragged vs Tennessee too.

The Chiefs second half offense is looking very Billsy right now.

How was not a QB sneak??? It was half a yard!

Also: http://expatalachians.com/country-roads-how-john-denvers-hit-became-the-worlds-most-popular-song

His real name is actually Henry John Deutschendorf.

Go to any bar in Ireland where there is a musical performer (which is most of them). For at least half of them, “country road” is the final or one of the final songs. There was a reason ridley scott used it as the distant radio signal in the second Alien prequel, “Alien: Covenant.”