dave mcbride

The Bills’ o-line talent isn’t that bad and is in all likelihood better than average at the moment. They have no injuries, and lines across the league are in way worse shape because of injuries/mediocrity.

This is really good; thanks! I love his points about the lack of FGs and how horrible the run scheme is.

I don’t think he’s injury prone; he’s not getting soft tissue injuries. The foot issue resulted from a person over 300 pounds landing/stepping on his foot. I think everyone gets injured when something like that happens. Just bad luck. But yeah, it’s all very frustrating.

Foot this time. Broken bone, apparently.

Truth.

He’s genuinely injured. I wish fans would think hard about that and factor it in before they pass judgment. https://buffalonews.com/sports/professional/nfl/bills/inside-the-bills-greg-rousseau-gutting-it-out-through-foot-injury/article_b48a8a66-7fdd-11ee-a5ce-ffae0985a19b.html The Buffalo Bills’ third-year defensive end is trying to play through a foot injury suffered in Week 4 against the Miami Dolphins. The injury forced Rousseau to miss the team’s Week 5 loss to the Jaguars, but he’s since tried to gut it out. “It’s tough, for sure. It takes some getting used to, being hurt, playing with something,” Rousseau said Thursday. “But, I mean, it’s part of the game. … ”Right or wrong, defensive ends are judged largely on sacks. While those haven’t been there for Rousseau the last month, there are signs he’s close. He had two quarterback hits against the Bengals, and his grade of 89.6 (out of 100) from analytics website Pro Football Focus was the second best on the Bills’ defense, behind only Tim Settle (90.3) for the game. On the season, Rousseau’s grade of 82.6 ranks fourth on the defense. … “I feel like I am getting better week to week,” said Rousseau, who estimated he’s playing at about 75% right now. “There were some rushes I wanted back at the end of the game, but the first quarter, I had two QB hits right off the bat. I feel like I’m rushing pretty solid. I’ve just got to keep getting better.” McDermott agreed with that assessment. “Any time you’re coming off an injury, it’s not easy,” he said. “You’re not yourself and so you’re dealing with it not only physically, but mentally, and I saw some things this past game that I thought were ‘Hey, he’s starting to really get back into who he is.’ With all the injuries suffered to the Bills’ defense, it’s imperative that the defensive line lead the way for the rest of the unit. That’s part of the reason why Rousseau didn’t miss more time with his injury. … That approach has earned the respect of his teammates, who have a better sense of what Rousseau is battling through. “He could very easily say, ‘No, I don’t want to. I’m going to wait until I’m fully healthy,’ kind of put himself above everything,” defensive end A.J. Epenesa said. “He’s humble enough to play through things. He’s still an elite player when he does that. Watching him out there, knowing he’s hurting, and him doing the things he’s doing to sacrifice his body and to make plays for us as a team and as a defense. We know Greg as a person, and we know that’s the kind of guy he is, so it doesn’t surprise me, but it makes me feel good to know you’ve got teammates who really care about you and this team. Having guys like Greg in the building make it fun to come to work every day.”

You have completely lost me and your logic is baffling. In the Cincy playoff game last season, the Bills were missing arguably their most important player on D (Daquon Jones) as well as Von Miller and Hyde. They were also missing Hamlin (no great shakes, but better than who was behind him), White was a still a shell of himself, Poyer was extremely banged up (knee and elbow), and Oliver was playing with a bad arm that severely hampered him. They went down to the Bengals for a number of reasons, but defensive injuries were HIGH on the list — especially the loss of Jones. This year, you celebrate McDermott’s four games with a healthy roster. Fine. But they’ve gone to absolute crap since the injury bug hit, and it’s understandable. Not only do I think your argument makes no sense because you’re not comparing like to like and you’re also using a small early-season sample size to lionize McDermott’s D, you fall prey to an age old fallacy: it’s all the coaches and the players are interchangeable. They are not. Good players really matter, and when good players go down, it has a negative effect whoever the hell is coaching. Also, by way of comparison, in the first four games of the 2022 season, a mostly healthy Bills’ D allowed on average 234.5 yards and 14.5 points per game while averaging 2.25 turnovers forced per game.

In the two or so years before Sanders joined the Bills, he was at or near the top of the league in gaining separation. I think he led the league in separation average for NO in 2020. The Bills tried to trade for him in 2019/2020 because he was such a perfect fit for Daboll’s scheme, but they didn’t get him until 2021.

SF was 4-4 (and then 5-4) in 2022. The Giants were 6-6 at one point in 2011.

I think the issue with Damar is that he gave up the highest passer rating in the league among all qualifying players last year. I know it's not all him - scheme and context matter - but it was over 140. That's really bad. Basically, he's a massive coverage liability. He does some other things well, but safeties do need to be able to cover.

He's a really good player. It's pretty obvious by now. Great pick.

The Bills D's experience with turnovers forced is not luck but a rock-solid trend under McDermott: 9th in 2017, 8th in 2018, 10th in 2019, 3rd in 2020, 3rd in 2021, 4th and 2022, and 1st through the first five games of 2023. Over the last four games, they've been dead last not because of bad luck, but because the remaining players aren't good enough. They've fallen from first to 11th, which while not bad is deceiving because of how sharp the fall has been. In any event, the current ranking is the worst in McDermott's 7 years as head coach. Their boundary corners have no nose for the ball and are happy to simply defend passes. They're missing a turnover machine in Milano too. Rasul Douglas actually has experience making picks, so maybe it'll get a little better. It can't get any worse.

Again, I have my issues with the offense. But the offense has always feasted point-wise on turnovers. Their D was third in turnovers forced in 2020, third in 2021, and fourth in 2022. 1 turnover in four games just doesn't cut it. All I'm saying is that points are harder to come by on longer fields, and their drive starts are way worse than they were in the first part of the season. It has an effect.

Not sure why you're opposed to looking at contextual factors rather than relying on a simple black-and-white portrait where the offense is bad and disappointing and nothing else should be considered. Life is more complicated than that.

First off, see the addendum I added to the post you responded to. Secondly, TB scored a lot that season but that was helped in part by the fact that their defense was terrific irrespective of the points allowed. They were fifth in turnovers forced, 3rd in TOP per drive and 6th in yards per drive. They had the number one rushing defense in the league. The current version of the Bills D hasn't been able to force a turnover to save its life for a quarter of a season running now and it can't get off the field, dropping to the near-bottom in third down conversion stoppage rates.

Great post, but I would add that having Allen as more of a running threat will be key to their success. He's an X factor for defenses in that regard, but until the last couple of games they shied away from it (for kinda stupid reasons, in my view; every injury he's had has been in the pocket). I also think the Bills were blinded by the Raiders game a bit, where he didn't really run and they had massive success anyway. The Raiders suck, but against better teams they need to stress the defense with his running ability.

I always go back to the TB defense of 2019 - the year before Brady got there. They were second in defensive DVOA yet 29th in points given up. That's because the TB quarterback was a turnover machine and opposing defenses scored an unholy number of defensive touchdowns. It skewed everything. A lot of people looked at the counting stats like points allowed and thought they weren't good, but then lo and behold Brady comes on board and the defense is fantastic statistically the next season with the same players. Hmm -- I wonder why. The Giants offense is the worst in the league (it's not even really close) by pretty much every measure, and they put the Giants D in bad situations all of the time. However, if you actually watch the games, Wink Martindale's approach was the first to flummox Shanahan, and the Niners struggled a bit before putting them away given the horrible offense facing them. They played well against Seattle (the offense was horrible), the Bills, Washington, and the Jets. They had no chance against the Cowboys, who scored early and often because the Giants either turned the ball over or couldn't move it at all. The Giants have had 7 out of 9 games where they've thrown for less than 200 yards and two games where they've thrown for less than 100 (including one game where they threw for -9 yards). Pretty sure @GunnerBill would agree with me about the Giants' D. Now to be fair, I am frustrated with the offense too -- very frustrated. There are real problems with it. But there is some context that I wasn't properly accounting for, and I'm always willing to change my mind if I become aware of evidence that undercuts my gut reactions.

A) Field position really matters for scoring probability, and B) the Giants' defense is actually pretty good. In one score games, there is no garbage time. The Bills were down two scores in the fourth vs the Pats. Was the scoring there garbage time? Was the Bills final TD vs the Bengals "garbage time" simply because their defense couldn't make a subsequent stop?

"But it’s the Bills’ defense that has fallen off since Dorsey took over, and especially this season, when injuries hit hard. That helps explain how the team has suffered a 3-yard regression in average starting field position on offense. Buffalo started 42 offensive drives in opponent territory over Daboll’s final 25 games with Allen. The number is 29 with Dorsey. This is one reason Buffalo is averaging fewer offensive points per game under Dorsey, despite experiencing raw gains in EPA per play, EPA per drive, success rate and various red zone statistics. ... With the defense falling off, the Bills have led on the scoreboard for 51 percent of plays in Dorsey’s first 25 games, down from 66 percent in Daboll’s final 25. Buffalo is also trailing more frequently (31 percent to 22). This has put greater pressure on the offense to succeed, shining a brighter light on its imperfections in games Buffalo loses. Almost no team in the league has been better than Buffalo on offense in games that were lost. Even counting Allen’s implosion game against the New York Jets in Week 1, Buffalo ranks second in offensive EPA per play during defeats this season. Only Philadelphia ranks higher, on a one-game sample (the Eagles are 8-1). The Bills are second to San Francisco in offensive success rate during defeats. Buffalo’s defense ranks 25th (EPA per play) and 18th (success rate) under the same criteria."

It's the reverse. The offense, outside of the one TO vs. NE and the drive start vs TB after the Harty return to the TB 25 yard line, is getting NO short fields to work with. It's hard to sustain long drives, and short-field scoring makes up a LOT of the scoring in the NFL.

This is a very good piece that makes the good point that McDermott's defense is putting the offense in too many lousy situations, which is affecting scoring. Drives have to be longer and they have few short fields. Sure, the defensive injuries are terrible and are crippling their productivity, but all the same this is a defense that has become blitz-happy (and not very good at it) yet can't force turnovers. I suggest reading the piece if you haven't yet. There are surrounding circumstances that are affecting the scoring--very poor defense and bad ST. I suggest reading the piece if you have access. It's a more sophisticated argument than that.

Put Cook on Miami and he's averaging 7-8 yards per carry.

Not really true. The 2015 Panthers were 27th in passing attempts and first in rushing attempts. It was very ball-control centric.

The Bucs D is horrible, but particularly vs the pass: 31st in yards given up, 31st in net yards per attempt, and 27th in TD passes surrendered. And they didn't have Vita Vea in that game against the Bills either. He's genuinely good.

It has been reported that Giants scouts were at the USC / Washington game. They're clearly scouting the QBs, and I have every expectation they'll take one. It's not hard for them to get out of the Jones contract.