dave mcbride

My view about turnovers is as follows: do they result in points for one side or the other? (Points-off-of-turnover differential is one of the "king" stats in the NFL.) If so, they really matter. If the turnover happens between one's own 45 yard line and the opponent's 40, you can't really assume a score even if the team that forces the TO gets one. The defense can still make a stop, and the offense still has to put together a normal-ish dive. If you turn the ball over when you're in FG range, though, (the 20-25 yard lines for instance), the other side gets assigned 3 points off of turnovers by me (because you can't assume a TD). That doesn't show up in the points off turnover equation, but it should. The Pats didn't really get any points off of turnovers (in the classic sense) in that game because after the INT they started on the other side of the field. The Bills couldn't get a stop, but given the distance they had to travel to get the TD, it was a "real" TD drive and wasn't handed to them.

Some context: https://www.twobillsdrive.com/community/search/?q="high level business meeting"&quick=1&type=forums_topic&nodes=1

Reader v. Saffold is one of the most lopsided one-game matchups I've ever witnessed. Here's the thing about Tre White: he actually has an INT (and on a nice play/read). Not one Bills CB currently on the 53-man roster has a single INT through seven games. That's ... not good. Speaks to a lack of playmaking ability at that position.

As I've stated before, DaQuon Jones is the straw that stirs the drink on that D. His absence from the Bengals game killed them. He's arguably their most crucial defensive player.

Plus Rousseau was missing in one of the losses and Oliver in another. So basically four top-shelf defenders have been out for either the full game or most of the game in each of their recent losses.

I certainly don't count the lateral, although the TO on downs arguably counts.

They didn't really lose the turnover battle; it was 1-1 not counting the failed lateral with no time on the clock. Also, a link would be appreciated.

Just as importantly, it's kind of an idiotic rule and it had literally zero bearing on the play. The Bills missed 4-5 tackles all on their own.

Cousins was amazing. Simply one good throw after another all night.

Do you have any idea how good Byard is?

Thank you!!!

Don’t let facts get in the way of a crusade …

Knox is a better receiver than he has been showing. I am sure the injury played a role in the drops. I can’t quite believe he was playing with that injury. It’s been a disaster because … wait for it … he’s been playing injured (not hurt; injured).

Well 1T is the Bills' most problematic position right now. Fix that even a little and they're going to remain a contender. Suh can play both 1 and 3 technique (he's done both) and he's a significant upgrade over Settle/Ford.

Ravens have over $6 million in cap space and the Bills have $952,000. Unless they do some restructuring, the Ravens can outbid them.

Dodson did make a nice tackle on the second and five play on the Pats final drive that put the Pats at 3rd and 8. But then they blitzed the next play and Jones easily found Henry for a first down.

The thing is, a $6 million player who might be more productive than Miller will be next year will free up more cap space than keeping on the deadwood that Miller might become. So yeah, if the trade is for a decent player with promise while jettisoning a player who is done, it can certainly make financial sense.

My take: the loss of Daquon Jones has been a disaster for the Bills. His absence from the Bengals playoff game last season was a clear sign of how important he is to the success of this defense. With Oliver down too, the Bills interior d-line is simply not ready for prime time. Historically, Mac Jones has completely crumbled in the face of good interior d-line pressure, but there was none in this game--the DTs were terrible. And the DTs couldn't handle the run game either. The lack of any threat from the interior d-line led McDermott to rely on blitzing to get pressure, but that just created easy short, quick throws for Jones all game long, who had probably the best game of his career. The result: seven Patriots scoring drives, one punt, and one turnover (after a completion by Jones; Poyer punched the ball out in a very nice play). The Bills had seven scoring drives vs. the Pats in the January 2022 playoff games, as it happens. Even on the one punt, it was fourth and less than one near midfield in the first quarter, and I was mildly surprised the Pats didn't go for it. The offense had its ups and downs but in the grand scheme of things it was fine. It came through late and put them in the lead with less than two minutes to go.

If you cut him after June 1, 2024, there is a dead cap hit to be sure, but the cap savings will be $6,790,000. It was always my understanding that the deal was really a two year thing that the Bills could get out of after two years. https://overthecap.com/player/von-miller/2#:~:text=Von Miller signed a six,million roster bonus in 2023.

I have gotten the weird sense that Allen started looking away from Davis after the fumble. Maybe he's been directed to; McDermott is supermely intolerant of non-quarterback fumbles.

Yep. I don’t have a good feeling about this defense going forward. McDermott needs to do some serious self-scouting to get this defense to average-level through superior scheming because the talent is bad right now: no interior d-linemen who are any good, JAGs at the boundary corner position who don’t make game-changing plays, and a total question mark at outside LB. The DE rushers are still above average relative to the rest of the league, but it really concerns me that 3 games in Von Miller is playing 6 snaps in total and none on NE’s pass-heavy game winning drive. You shouldn’t be rostering him if that’s all you’re getting from him. The safeties are above average too. Overall, I think they’re currently well below average at DT (and I fear Oliver’s toe issue will be a nagging one), below average at boundary CB, above average at DE, and moderately above average at safety. That spells “mediocre NFL defense,” right in the mix with all the average-level teams whose defenses occasionally get steamrolled. McDermott is blitzing a ton to cover up for the bad interior pressure situation, but the result over the last two weeks has been to make Tyrod and Jones look like pro bowlers. The Patriots had SEVEN scoring drives - the same number as the Bills had in the Bills-NE playoff game from January 2022.

Well, it’s kinda correct to blame the mash unit because they are the reason the Bills lost. The Bills offense was at least up and down over the course of the game - some good, some bad. The defense was all bad all game except for one play (poyer’s forced fumble, a very nice play). They gave up SEVEN scoring drives to Mac Jones, who had the best game of his friggin’ career. The larger issue is that they spent a LOT on d-line depth and what they have to show for it on the interior is some of the worst DT play in the league. Mac Jones’s biggest and most obvious weakness is that he crumbles under interior d-line pressure, and the Bills put NONE one him. Ford, Settle, and Phillips are not league-minimum salary guys; collectively, they’re making $9+ million. Yet they suck.

Not just 29 points, but 7 scoring drives.

The offense won the game at the end. The defense then allowed the worst offense in the league (until today) slice through them with utter ease. But it is worth acknowledging that the best four Bills’ defensive players were out. It’s just not their year because of injuries, which absolutely sucks. But it’s real life.

I am talking about the defense. The Bills D has gone in three short weeks from being one of the most talented(and experienced) in the league to one of the least talented (and lesser experienced) in the league. It is what it is.