dave mcbride

I think the question was the worst loss, not the most painful loss.

And were down 14-10 and goal to go at the 3 yard line.

I read an article (I think SI) in which personnel around the league said that he'd go for more than what ROsen went for (late second) and that they could easily see a team like Pitt spending a late first on him. https://www.si.com/nfl/2020/10/12/trevor-lawrence-looms-jets-trades-travis-fulgham-andy-dalton There’s no better example of Trevor Lawrence’s looming presence over the bottom of the NFL standings than in ESPN’s Sunday morning news story this weekend gauging the trade value of Jets QB Sam Darnold. And I hope I’ve been as clear as possible about this with people over the last couple months. There’s very little chance that whoever has the first pick will trade it, regardless of who else is on the roster. The team that gets him is going to have to be the worst team in the league, because that’s the type of prospect Lawrence is. It was like this in 2012 for Andrew Luck (and I’d imagine 1983 for John Elway and 1998 for Peyton Manning), and it's going to be the same in 2021. And to continue the exercise, I did reach out to a few people to gauge what the price tag might be for Darnold—and what they’d be willing to pay. One NFC exec said, “A little more than the [Josh] Rosen trade, so maybe a second and a fourth.” An AFC scouting director was willing to go a little further than that, saying, “If you had a 1 in the 20s like, say, a Pittsburgh, I’d do it. The kid’s talented as hell and is under a brutal [situation].” A second NFC exec said he’d consider “a late 1 this year for him, maybe two 2s,” and added “He’s still an asset. This isn’t Hackenberg.” That makes a lot of sense to me. And if I was the Steelers, I’d see a lot of reclamation project value there. The Niners took a shot like that back in the ’80s, and did it despite having Joe Montana on the roster, and I don’t think they regretted it.

How can the answer be anything other than 52-17, a game in which the Bills turned it over nine-count-em'-nine times?? And it should have been 59-17 if not for Leon Lett's showboating.

Yes, a great player and certainly the most accurate passer by far of his era (1970s-early 1980s). I well remember the Bills' loss to Cincy in the playoffs in '81. The thing about Aikman, though, is that he played nearly a full season in his postseason carrer (15 games) and the Cowboys went 11-4 in those games with 3 SB victories. His postseason completion percentage was 64 percent, which was extremely high for the 90s, and he averaged 7.7 ypa. He of course won a SB MVP too. Those numbers have to be factored into any evaluation of him.

He has to be more accurate, and while those other two deep throws were on the money, both receivers were well covered. He missed the open guy. I love Allen, but last night was not a good night for him. It's the worst he as played in a while, at least with regard to throwing.

I think we can, but SF is getting healthy on offense and I think they are a really bad matchup for us. Moreover, the last two times a Shanahan-coordinated offense faced a McDermott D (2016), it was a blowout (48 and 33 points over two games). He's a really great offensive mind. Also, Aiyuk is gonna be good. I worry that the Bills can't handle mobile QBs anymore, which is my concern with Murray. That's the more winnable of the two, especially with Chandler Jones out for the season.

Here's what Monson wrote. He also has him at 3rd.

He had way too many inaccurate throws last night. Two bad ones to start off, a bad missed TD pass on the opening drive, and a brutal drive killer to Beasley on their first drive in the third (and man, he has to play better in the third quarter). I know you said the one that should have gone to Singletary was a smart throwaway because he would have taken a sack in the past, but ... Singletary was wide open and it was a pretty easy throw. I expect he'll play a lot better against the Jets.

Huge difference between sacks and pressures. Also, he had 9.5 sacks, 13 TFLs, and 16 QB hits. That is called making plays, something the Bills d-linemen aren't doing this year.

I know people hate PFF and especially Sam Monson, but he had an interesting twitter thread about how Fitz's quick release game is covering up some some very shaky offensive line play. He's one of the quickest-releasing qbs in the league this year, and Tua will not be that guy. I think there's something to that.

Not sure how you're getting to 12 given the remaining schedule. 10 is doable. you have us winning two west coast games? That's pretty bold. I think those games are bad matchups for the Bills, esp SF. SF plays like TN.

As soon as Mahomes rolled out, I knew it was over. I knew someone would be wide open. It's really the nature of the miss. That was a Van der Jagt level miss. It was 20 yards to the right!

Good thread that I was just about to start myself before seeing this. Here's my view: 3 easy wins: Chargers at home coming off a bye, the Jets, and Miami at home in early January. 1 probable win (but you never know): at Denver. I just don't think they can score. 1 curb stomping: Seattle at home. 1 probable curb stomping although maybe the weather gods intervene enough to make things unpredictable given the game is in mid-December: a Sunday night home game vs. Pitt. That gets the Bills to 8-4. NEx2: I think they'll probably split. Allen will have a bad game in one of those affairs because the NE secondary is still excellent and Belichick is a better coach. But the Bills are more talented. That gets the Bills to 9-5. Finally, 2 road games vs. AZ and SF. I hope the Bills manage a split here, but I worry that the AZ will put up 40 on them and SF will run the ball down the Bills throat for 40+ minutes. You just hope that Allen has a big enough game in one of these two to get to 10-6, which I think wins the division. NE has three losses, and let's assume a 4th loss vs. the Bills. They still have the Niners, the Ravens at home, and the Rams on the road left. The Niners are getting healthy and NE is not going to be healthy this week. It's also a big game for Shanahan/Garrapalo too. They also have to play Miami in Miami, where they always struggle, and TX in TX (Deshaun Watson has shredded them in the past and they're not a good shootout team at this point). They have the Chargers on the road (a game I think they'll win with ease given BB's historical record against rookie qbs) and the Jets twice, so they're at least going to win 5. That Denver loss at home was HUGE.

My son sam texted me from college and was irate they didn't go for two because they weren't going to stop kc from getting a fg. I told him to settle down and that the bills made the right decision. He was right; I was wrong.

?? - Mahomes completed 81 percent of his passes, had 8.7 ypa, and a rating of 128.4! One of these QBs was not like the other last night.

A key part of the cycle is Fitz looks good and then gets paid. Miami hasn't paid him!

Did you watch the games? He'd pass them down the field and then they'd punch it in. They were at the top in scoring nearly every year in his prime. Also, as I said above, they were 1, 2, or 3 in net yards per attempt -- the most important passing stat, in my view -- during their dominant SB years (1992-1995). Look at the Cowboys scoring and the YPA average. I feel like people are cherry picking stats and missing the big picture. His accuracy on deeper throws opened everything up.

Good post. The miss to a wide open Diggs in the EZ was the worst one, but the bad miss to Beasley on the first possession of the third quarter was Pretty bad too because they really needed to stay on the field.

Definitely great throws! But he threw into tight coverage. It was a problem all night, and not that after the Diggs throw, he stopped trying to go deep. He looked a bit lost a few times after that.

Both catches would have been amazing because the coverage was there. Neither receiver was actually open and both passes were defended by Chiefs DBs. The Brown pass was actually broken up.

I hate him as an announcer, but he was a phenomenal QB. He was the most accurate medium-deep to deep thrower of his era, and it opened everything up. Just for some perspective, look at his accuracy during his prime from 1991-1996 (before all of the back injuries). Those numbers in that era were extremely high. https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/A/AikmTr00.htm. from 1992-1995, the Cowboys’ passing offense was 3rd, 3rd, 2nd, and 1st in net yards per passing attempt.

My guess is that McDermott regards him as a fumbler. That doesn’t fly with McDermott.

Is he? He made the pro bowl last year. Not saying you’re wrong, but the production has always been there and he is a LOT more accomplished than Ed Oliver. I am curious how this all works. How much does Bell count against KC’s cap?

Different era. Aikman was regarded by pretty much everyone who followed the sport as the most accurate thrower in the league during his prime.