dave mcbride

Rivers could make all of the throws. He just looks weird doing it. https://www.boston.com/sports/new-england-patriots/2019/01/10/philip-rivers-throwing-motion-shot-put

We're talking about backups. He's better than most options out there. Take a look at the backup situation around the NFL.

The TV contracts aren't done and the projections about 2021 gate revenues are very hard to project at this point.

I don’t know what NE will do regarding Newton. No one is being signed by anyone right now because teams won’t know what the salary cap will be for a couple more weeks. That is driving everything right now. It all comes to tv contracts and projected gate revenues. The former will be based on real contracts to be signed soon, and the latter is a crapshoot.

The NE defense was below average (27th in defensive DVOA) and they went 7-8 with him at QB. His PFF AV was 12, which is very solid. He had 10 picks to go along with 8 TD passes and 13 rushing and receiving TDs. He completed 66 percent of his passes. That is the very definition of a better than average backup, and he’d actually be a huge upgrade for the Bills (who aren’t going to sign him). What you want from a backup qb is a guy who can get you to 2-2 over a 4-game stretch when your starter separates a shoulder or pulls a hamstring. He can do that for you. Matt Barkley cannot. There is a lot of hate for Newton on this board, and I can’t understand why. Is it the clothes? The interviews? If it is, all I have to say is who gives a crap about that stuff? He is by no means a good starting QB. But he is without a doubt a top 40 QB in the NFL still despite the shoulder injury that reduced from a well-above average QB (on a near-MVP pace in 2018 up to midseason that year) to what he is now. Famous last words. We shall see.

He is better than most backup qbs in the NFL. Fitzpatrick will be starting somewhere. There aren't 32 QBs who are better than him. The Bills can't afford him.

Actually, that's not its origin. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thuggee

How does a list of the top 50 free agents not project anyone signing with the Patriots? The Patriots have a TON of cap space and have a fairly strong record of impact signings over the course of the Belichick era: Gilmore, Revis, Rodney Harrison, Seau, Adalius Thomas, and Roosevelt Colvin (plus others like Shawn Springs). $5 million for a better-than-average backup isn't that crazy at all. That's what Newton is at this point. He's more likely to win you a game than, say, Matt Barkley.

The Browns made good defensive plays because they were prepared against a predictable qb. Turnovers usually aren't flukes. Some are, but in that game, outside of the first one the others weren't. The better team won.

I suspect it’s in Australia.

Yeah, but don’t teams with really good won-loss records sacrifice plays because they grind out the clock late? The chargers had a good offense AND usually lost, so they’re the perfect example of a team overdetermined to have a high offensive play count. 7 of the top 9 teams failed to have winning records. https://www.statmuse.com/nfl/ask/nfl-team-with-the-most-offensive-plays-per-game-this-season

I’ve heard of this guy named Reggie White ... Seriously, you gotta think that event is looming over the conversations in GB.

By “under control” I mean he’s a guy for which the Bills have the final say and for which the system allocates a relatively small salary. I did not say that he was under contract. (It’s akin to MLB’s rules regarding players’ first six years in an organization — they are considered “under control” regardless of contract status). They do not have final say on players not under team control unless they want to franchise them. Fwiw, I regard $3 million—if it comes to that— for a decent starter a bargain. Of course, the Bills have to believe he’s worth that. But $2 million? Sure, sign me up for that. PS - as I think about it, if the Bills think he’s truly starting quality, I believe they should probably consider offering him a 3-4 year contract now. It won’t be that much, relatively speaking. Again, the caveat is the Bills’ opinion of him. That I don’t know, but if PFF is any guide, he grades out as a solid starter.

It seems like the Bills got serious value because he was injured (achilles) for his final season at Iowa. I was unaware. He seems to have evolved into a reasonably solid NFL starter, and he is both cheap and under control. https://nflmocks.com/2018/05/10/buffalo-bills-get-udfa-steal-ot-ike-boettger-iowa/

Wisconsin overall is colder than Buffalo. Milwaukee, which is a good bit south of GB, is the second coldest major city in the US (after Minneapolis). Buffalo is 4th.

I agree with you generally speaking, but Brady was actually very, very good in college. His situation was unique because Michigan successfully recruited Drew Henson, who was regarded as the best qb prospect in many a year. He was good from the get go in the pros too. He played EXTREMELY well overall in 2001 given the situation.

Daboll was TE coach for NE during Gronk’s prime. He certainly knows how to both use and feature a TE. But he needs horses to do it properly. I also feel like they have bent over backwards to get Knox involved. It hasn’t worked yet, but perhaps that’s because he’s young and still learning. He was a qb in HS.

The Watt double team numbers this season were eye-opening to me. Proves once again you can't just rely on the top-line stats for making assessments. Unlike a lot of people in this thread (it seems!), I don't know the guy personally and am going to withhold judgment on his character.

Coming off of a second serious, season-ending leg injury, though ...

Dude, cool your jets with the hostile snark. Jeez. Allen played in all of two inclement weather games this season - KC and Baltimore. The offense scored 17 and 10 points. As for Watson, he threw 49, not 45 (http://insidethepylon.com/nfl/2019-nfl-draft/2019/03/10/ball-velocity-is-bunk/ and https://nflcombineresults.com/playerpage.php?i=22529), but the real takeaway is that the number was wildly non-predictive of performance -- just like Allen's completion percentage in college was non-predictive. Why people have to trash one player as part of praising another player is beyond me. They're both good players.

This is awesome. Thanks for posting.

I'm fine with all three. They're equally important/valuable.

I agree, but I have an iron rule about this: you simply cannot worry about sunk costs. If you don't think your RBs (or whatever position it might be) are good enough, the the fact that you expended draft capital on the position in previous seasons is immaterial when it comes to making the team better.

I have no problem at all with taking a very good corner if he's there at #30. We need another one.

Who is the better route runner and better at getting open so that there's a clear window for the QB? That's who I want. Davonta looks more like Diggs than Waddle does, and he seems plenty fast enough. Of course, he'll be long gone by the time the Bills pick. This is helpful on Smith: https://www.nfl.com/news/scouting-devonta-smith-alabama-wr-reminiscent-of-marvin-harrison