dave mcbride

These stats are HIGHLY misleading. Brown essentially played in only 8 games and had 34 catches for 458 yards. Extrapolated to 16 games, that’s 68 catches for 916 yards and 6 TDs. He hasn’t been injury prone in his career, so it’s not a good idea to assume he’ll be hampered by injury again next year. He got hurt in the first half of the Rams game and again in the Cardinals game (after catching 6 balls for 72 yards), so he really played 8 full games. He also didn’t play in the second half of the finale.

He was a legitimately good qb in 2019. He has the tools, but something happened mentally to him this past season. He’s fixable and a potential franchise qb. Do you have a link to support the claim that his teammates “hated him”?

That’s terrible. It also has begin to convince me that the Chiefs may lose because of the outside distractions. Remember the 1989 bengals-niners super bowl when Stanley Wilson got arrested before the game and the 1999 SB when Eugene Robinson got arrested during SB week? It’s a real distraction, as is this. Plus KC had the covid stuff going on with the barber and they are missing their 2 starting tackles (while facing two of the best edge rushers in the league). Great minds think alike! See my post above.

Good point. His stats were abjectly terrible in 1972 by today’s standards, but if you look at his adjusted passer rating that year, it’s 100 — which is exactly league average: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/B/BradTe00.htm. Another example that shows you can’t judge stats from that era using today’s stats as a benchmark. That said, he really wasn’t any good until 1975 (judged against his peers), his sixth season. After that, he was one of the league’s elite qbs. In those early years, the Steelers had a dominant run game and one of the best defenses ever. Maybe the best ever, in fact. Also, he was benched for a time in 1973: https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/remember-when-joe-gilliam-takes-terry-bradshaws-starting-qb-job/. .

Where do folks place Justin Herbert on this spectrum? I ask because along with Russell Wilson in 2012 and maybe Marino in 1983, that was the most impressive rookie season for a qb I’ve seen.

Be careful there. If Garrapolo doesn’t overthrow that bomb to Emmanuel Sanders by 2 feet, we’re having a different conversation. The disparity in SF’s record when Garrapolo starts and when he doesn’t is very stark.

Palmer finished 5th in the league in MVP voting in his second season. He led the league in TD passes and completion percentage.

Agreed, but @jeremy2020 specified top 10 draft picks. I hesitate to put Collins, who was one, in their given that the Panthers got to the NFC championship game in his second season.

Interesting take. It's got me thinking too - which top 10 QBs didn't produce for their first three years and then flourished a few years later, either for the team that drafted them or elsewhere? I can think of Jim Plunkett, Steve Young, Terry Bradshaw, Tannehill (not sure if he fits; he was never really that bad) and Alex Smith. Steve Bartkowski (questionable, but he did have a couple of very good seasons 6-7 years after he was drafted #1 overall), Vinnie Testaverde (similar), and Jeff George (believe it or not, similar) all semi-qualify too. Maybe Sam Bradford? He played pretty well over the course of 17 games for Minnesota before getting hurt again. Maybe not. Anyway, your larger point stands: it's basically a sea of continued failure going back decades for top ten picks who fail out of the gate: http://www.drafthistory.com/index.php/positions/qb.

Good point. Let's talk about Tom Brady instead!

Albert Breer writes about it in his column. He says it's conceivable it gets to $195 million depending on tv contract negotiations before the start of the NFL year. Whoops - I misread the piece. Breer says the league wants to get as close as possible to $198.2 million (the current cap) via new broadcast deals, but the deals have to come into effect before the beginning of the league year.

That's not really true with regard to Seattle. He was a disruptive player who affected games there. Last year not so much, though.

The piece GunnerBill links to above is excellent. I recommend it.

Yes, this. Clowney was very disruptive in Seattle, and he was terrific in Houston. He may be falling off a cliff now, however. And the lack of bend that good edge rushers all have and which the article points out makes a lot of sense. I'm leery. This was very eye-opening, by the way:

This is actually a great piece. Good mailbag responses at the end too.

My wife Leah actually works with a couple of the companies mentioned in the piece (Fine & Raw Chocolate and OddFellows Ice Cream). She flagged it for me. Props to her.

I actually went to that game and sat 20 rows up at the 40 yard line behind the Bills bench. We paid face value for the tickets too (long story). Anyway, it is DEEPLY etched in my memory.

That post does not say who the busts were. I just read it again. That's what I was responding too. If you posted that info elsewhere, I didn't think to chase it down (and nor would I ever do that).

Not true. He played well into the second quarter (he left with seven minutes to go) and turned the ball over three times, once in his own end zone and once in the Cowboys end zone. He was playing horribly.

George Burns is an anecdote, not representative of any sort of trend. Schottenheimer may well have gotten Alzheimer's for reasons other than football, but he was diagnosed with in 2014 - when he 70. That's pretty young for Alzheimer's. The average age for onset is 80. Bear in mind he played in an era with pretty bad helmets and pretty vicious head shots.

There's fishing at 7 pm in early February??

Except this isn't what happened to Bennett if you read the piece above. He's talking about a more general phenomenon.

Incidentally, here is some important context behind Bennett's twitter thread: https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2021/01/the-second-career-of-martellus-bennett/617256/?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=share

That upper left quadrant says "thank you, Gregg Williams!" More seriously, the Raiders offense was well above average in every category except turnovers (Carr himself had 11 fumbles, which is too many for a guy who only got sacked 4.8 percent of the time and doesn't run much), but their defense was AWFUL. Not only were they terrible in yards and points surrendered, they were 30th in forcing turnovers. They lost a lot of high-scoring games. https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/rai/2020.htm People complain about Ed Oliver, but Clelin Ferrell was drafted 4th overall in that same draft as an edge player and his production is minimal.

Who are your three complete busts? Maybin, Manuel, and ... McKelvin? Leodis certainly wasn't worth the pick, but he lasted for a while and started for while. He was a good returner too. I wouldn't call him a complete bust, I guess. Spiller had one genuinely elite season, and Dareus was terrific while playing under his first contract (2011-14). Gilmore won a defensive MVP (not for us, of course), and Watkins remains a pretty good player (who we overpaid for). What you don't mention is that their defense has greatly improved. It was the best in the NFL this season.