dave mcbride

The most predictive stat of team success in the NFL is team passer rating differential. What's the differential in the Bills home games during Allen's time here between the Bills and their opponents? That is truly all that matters. https://www.si.com/more-sports/2011/06/23/most-importantstatpasserratingdifferential

Indy has lost 6 in a row in Jacksonville going back to 2015. Crazy but true.

I always figured that the tuck rule was karmic payback for the roughing call on Sugar Bear Hamilton. (It was such a bad call given that era, although it'd be called roughing nowadays). Ben Dreith was the ref and is hated to this day in New England. They even mentioned it in a Buff News piece from last year! https://buffalonews.com/sports/football/sunday-playbook-referee-ben-dreith-remembered-for-raiders-pats-call-and-kelly-getting-the-business/article_e4c05fd6-fde4-11ea-af8f-33d1bdbaa5bd.html

I'm not necessarily saying it was the wrong call -- you have to throw it down the field on occasion. But Diggs was covered and Knox was wide open and would have gotten the first down. That's all I'm saying.

I thought he threw it too hard, but reasonable minds can disagree. The larger issue is that early in that game, too many were coming out too fast. My view is that he may have been acting a little cocky after threading the needle on that early high-velocity throw to Davis. Davis got it it in his breadbasket, however, and didn't need to reach out. The pass thrown that resulted in the PI on Diggs at the goal line seemed to be thrown too hard as well (although it didn't matter). Anyway, it really is harder to catch a football in sub-freezing damp weather, and putting too much mustard on it only accentuates that problem. All in all, Allen looked like a guy who had been reading his own press clippings after the NE performance: reckless and a little arrogant. Hopefully next week he's a little more careful.

The bomb to Diggs. Knox was wide open for a 20-yard gain.

The fact that he looks like a schlub won't help his cause on some teams. Unfair but it's a fact of life. That said, Matt Patricia, who has a very similar background -- both have engineering degrees from excellent schools; both worked for the Pats; both were coordinators; both look like schlubs -- got a HC job.

They almost did. https://www.cleveland.com/browns/2018/04/josh_allen_and_baker_mayfield.html

They ran two slants to Diggs yesterday in the EZ! The first was dropped (on a ball that was probably thrown too hard) and the second was the PI on Diggs that gave the Bills a first and goal at the 1.

I highly doubt that Daboll will get a head coaching gig. It's going to be very hard for any owner/GM to sell him to a fan base as an "answer" who inspires confidence. He has the look of a coordinator lifer to me.

Be careful what you wish for. I don't Daboll is the greatest OC in the history of the game, mind you, but I do think he's above average.

And a 16 mph wind. Nasty. Honestly, that's good for the Jets. The weather can be an equalizer, but you'd think by this point that Allen would be acclimated to it given that he's playing in it nearly every week, it seems. Honestly, though, the temp will be dropping pretty quickly, so that by 5 pm or so it might be below 32. The low for that day is 20 and the low for the next day is 12, so factor in declining temps throughout the day.

Actually, that's not correct about Newton. His injury woes stem from passing plays. This is the hit by TJ Watt in November 2018 which completely messed up his shoulder: https://in.pinterest.com/pin/345721708892109451/ and https://www.si.com/nfl/panthers/gm-report/a-timeline-of-the-cam-newton-saga. Also, he said he screwed up his AC joint in his throwing shoulder in 2015 when trying to make a tackle after throwing a pick: https://patriotswire.usatoday.com/2021/07/09/cam-newton-details-what-really-happened-with-the-health-of-his-shoulder/. The later 2018 injury was the far more serious one though. Anyway, his bad injuries that ruined his career came on throwing plays, not running plays.

Early forecast for that weekend: Sat 15 31°/23° Snow Showers 36% WSW 7 mph Sun 16 27°/18° Few Snow Showers 33% W 9 mph

He is 2-0 at home in the postseason and 0-2 on the road. And he didn't play well in either of the losses.

Yadda yadda yadda ... NFL players should catch every throw. When 4 passes whistle through different receivers' hands in the course of one quarter, the constant ain't the receiver, it's the QB.

He was throwing it with WAY too much velocity early on. It’s extremely difficult for any receiver to catch those throws when it’s that cold outside. The one through Diggs’s hands in the EZ was blistering to the point of being uncatchable.

Agree with all of this. Another thing: Terry Pegula’s favorite team, the Buffalo Sabres, automatically become utterly unviable in Buffalo if he remains the owner of them.

The game was out of hand at that point. Totally different situation than the AZ game last year.

From a Pats fan friend of mine who pasted this quote (don't know where it's from): "Might not be a popular take right now but pressuring Josh Allen yesterday wasn't the issue for the #Patriots defense. Pats had a pressure rate of 40.8%. KVN had seven QB pressures, Barmore six. Allen was just elite under pressure. Always found an outlet." As for the Williams penalty, he did the exact same thing on the TD pass to Gabe Davis in the first Pats/Bills game but wasn't called for it. He should have been, though. Watch #75 here:

Strong, good black coffee from the time I wake up until around noon. Then, soda stream-produced seltzer until around 6. After that, French/Spanish/Italian red (french rose in the summer sometimes) or a good hazy IPA. Next day: rinse and repeat.

The Falcons and Jets are respectively 31st and 32nd in defensive DVOA. I expect dominating wins.

I don’t disagree with this, but overall I thought he played well in the Pats game, particularly vs the pass. He was an intimidator out there and got to runners quickly and violently to make the tackle.

The only player who seems to be a regular starter is Tyeler Davison: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/atl/2021.htm Davison has started a lot of games for NO and ATL over the last 6 seasons: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/D/DaviTy01.htm. No idea how good he is, however.

Yes, they are a bad team. I think it's not only luck, though; they do have a borderline HOF QB, and that makes a difference in close games. For instance, I'll take Ryan over, say, Tua, Goff, or Daniel Jones in a close game. Note that the Roethlisberger leads the league in comeback victories this year with 6.