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Everything posted by BillsFanForever19
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Am I the only one not planning on watching Chiefs/Ravens??
BillsFanForever19 replied to Special K's topic in The Stadium Wall
My dad asked me if I was watching and I said "after last week, just tell me who wins". I don't care to watch it. I'd have rather Baltimore wkn. I don't like the feeling that comes with losing to KC and then seeing KC win it all. Makes me feel like if we just went through them, we'd have been at least AFC Champions. -
McBeane Mid to Late Round Picks Success
BillsFanForever19 replied to wppete's topic in The Stadium Wall
This is so overblown by you. He's had hits and he's had misses. No GM hits on every pick. Busts in Round 1 and Round 2 happen league wide. And when you factor in where we're picking on a yearly basis and the amount of impact players we've found in later rounds, Beane's success in the Draft is pretty good. You can't be where we are on a yearly basis if he's terrible at Drafting and terrible at FA like you contend. -
It's so easy to look at past Drafts and the success of players and say "you should have taken (so and so) instead". For most of those that you mentioned, we went with the higher rated prospect. They just didn't end up being the better player. The Oliver or Metcalf comparison makes no sense. Oliver was selected 9th overall and was universally a Top 5-10 talent in that Draft. DK Metcalf was the 9th WR to come off the board, selected 64th overall at the bottom of Round 2. 8 different teams, who were specifically picking WR, went with a different WR. People would have thought we were on Crack to take Metcalf in the Top 10. Now if you say Cody Ford or DK Metcalf, that makes more sense. However, even then, Ford was considered the better prospect. He was considered a steal at the top of Round 2, a 1st Rounder who fell. Metcalf on Draft Day was considered a workout warrior who didn't show up on Game Day in College and was a major question mark who was as big a Boom or Bust prospect as they came. It just so happened, he was a Boom. Epenesa over Uche, again, Epenesa was the higher rated prospect. Considered a 1st Round Pick who fell. Also a true Defensive End when we were in the market for one. Uche was considered more of a tweener. A LB who could pass rush situationally. Creed Humphrey was Drafted after Year 1 of handing Mitch Morse a massive contract to be our Center for years to come. So logically, why then would we Draft a Center that soon after having solidified the position with Morse? Again, it's so easy to look back at the success of Drafted players by other teams in hindsight and build an all time team. Players like Metcalf, Uche, and Humphrey were passed by all other teams at least once, if not twice, or three times. Beane has built a successful team. Consistently in the Top 2-4 teams in the AFC and 4-8 in the NFL. Many fanbases would kill to be in the situation we consider a failure. There's been a number of things that have kept us from getting over that hump. To point at Beane and say his Drafting is the reason is silly in my opinion. The Draft is a crap shoot. You take the highest rated player at a position of need when you pick and hope for the best. Sometimes the higher rated prospect is a total bust. Sometimes you find a late Round Pick who was on no one's board and they turn into a Superstar. Beane has picked some real winners. No GM is 100% when it comes to hitting on picks and every GM has picks they'd second guess in hindsight. If you think there isn't teams and fanbases pointing at some of the guys we got when we got them and wish they'd have picked them instead, you're wrong. And none of the miscues we had are at the level of "I wish we drafted Josh Allen instead".
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And do you think McDermott would be comfortable with maybe the most famous and decorated NFL Head Coach of all time being under him on his staff? After any and every loss, fans and media would be pushing for Belichick to take over.
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Is the #2 WR already on this team?
BillsFanForever19 replied to TheyCallMeAndy's topic in The Stadium Wall
Not in the technical sense. Shakir could grow into the go to guy on passing downs at WR behind Diggs. But he's a Slot guy. #2 to me is the X WR opposite Diggs on the field. Shakir won't be that guy. You can occasionally throw him Outside in a pinch, but you want him running those middle of the field routes primarily. So, no. We don't have an X reliable enough to replace Davis on the roster ATM. -
Is Reggie Gilliam a top 5 fullback in the NFL?
BillsFanForever19 replied to FireChans's topic in The Stadium Wall
Exactly. He does a lot of different things. Special Teams, added blocker, and versatile. And he doesn't cost much. But a majority of posters around here feel anyone can block and anyone can play special teams. And unless you're scoring points or getting INT's or sacks, you're useless, can be replaced by literally anyone, and are a waste of resources. -
Micah Hyde was a tweener who also played Safety in College. He wasn't just a young CB randomly making the transition at the Pro level. https://hawkeyesports.com/roster/micah-hyde/ As I've said, the only times that transition is made is if they were Drafted out of College as a tweener with the versatility to play both spots or aging elite CB's who have the skills to transition (ala Peterson, Vincent, and Woodson). You never take a young CB who's playing the position at a high level and put them at Safety.
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I'd be surprised if Poyer is gone. From the comments of the Hyde family, it seems he's going to retire any day now. I think Poyer's on the decline. But I also think they don't want to completely start fresh at both Safety spots. And I get the feeling they'll be getting younger there, so they're going to want Poyer there to help bring along the Rookie. I think he'll be in line for a paycut or some sort of restructure to get his figure down a bit. If there's no restructure to be done and he turns down a paycut, maybe they bite the bullet because they feel they have no choice. But my gut says Taylor Rapp comes back cheap as insurance, having a year in the system under his belt, and we Draft a guy somewhere between Rounds 2 and 3 to pair with Po.
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I don't gamble out of principle and having friends and family members who are/were addicts. But I'll publicly admit I was wrong and you were right if Tre isn't a cap casualty. Tre's just part of it though. We're 1000% not moving Douglas, Benford, Elam, or Jackson (especially since he's a FA) to replace Hyde.
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Doubly so when you consider the out in his contract is this offseason, he's on the books for 16.4m in cap this year and 16.6m in cap next season, we're set at CB with Douglas and Benford on the Outside, Johnson at the Nickel, and Elam at CB4, we're ridiculously over the cap, and have starters at WR, DE, DT, and S to replace, and a myriad of depth players. The NFL is a cut throat business and emotions should never enter the equation. In this situation, we literally have no choice. Warm fuzzies be damned.
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We can get out from under Douglas without paying anything more. But he won't save us money this year and next year like Tre will. He's also not coming off an ACL Tear and an Achilles rupture. We won't be keeping both. We're not going to take a young ascending CB like Benford and make him CB3, as well as push Elam back to CB4. Tre won't be ready to start the season and he can't be counted on as anything but a reserve with limited reps when he does. And his contract pays him like a Top CB in the league. As I've said and anyone who looks at our cap situation and the contracts we have said - it's a no brainer. Tre is gone. Even Beane when he was asked about Tre's future started with "that's a good question" and not an unequivocal "he'll be here". Which is about as damning as Beane gets.
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Agreed. I'm pretty sure when we traded for Douglas, we knew then that he'd be replacing White not just for last year - but completely, provided that he performed well in our scheme. And he definitely did. He'll be extended, unless he and his agent want to test the market first. Here's hoping they don't want to.
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Yeah, it really is. The amount of mental gymnastics you're doing when it's as simple as Drafting or signing a Safety is incredible. You're right, we are stacked at CB. But we need a starting WR (plus at least 2 more for rotation and depth), a starting DE (plus 1-2 more for rotation), a starting DT (plus 2-3 more for rotation), and at least 1 starting Safety, possibly 2 (and another 1-2 for depth). All the while being ~44 million over the cap and one of our many CB's having an out in their contract to save a ton of money over the next two years. The answer isn't move a CB to Safety because you have warm fuzzies. One of those CB's has an out in their contract, put in for a reason - in the event we're in bad shape roster wise, cap wise, and in case of fall off and injury - of which all have occurred. The answer is simple. Move on from one CB and use that money this year and next year to address the multitude of positions where we're not only not stacked - we need starters. We can move on from one CB and still be in very good shape there. And moving CB's to Safety isn't something that happens all the time like you think. It only happens if a guy is a tweener with experience at both positions at the College and/or Pro level. Or they're elite aging CB's with the tools to transition like a Patrick Peterson or Troy Vincent. That's not the situation here. And even if it were as likely as you'd think it is that we'd just move a guy - it would be a project. You don't just move a CB to Safety, who's not played the position at the Pro Level, and say "okay, we're good there". It's a total projection. We'd still need to bring in a True Safety as insurance in the event that it wouldn't work. So knowing that we have to sign a guy anyways - this project would just cost us even more money by having to sign insurance and keeping on a CB that we could save money moving on from. I'm honestly shocked it's even as close as 65 against, 34 for on your poll. It just makes zero sense any way you slice it.
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It's ridiculous to think you take the better performing CB and move them to Safety for the lesser performing CB. Safety is the lesser position and is easier and cheaper to replace. And Elam wasn't even the 3rd Outside CB on this team. So he's going to go from Outside CB4 to CB1 or CB2 at the cost of moving our best CB? Never. And it's INSANELY ridiculous to think Douglas would not only be open to that, but then would choose to sign an extension paying him less money to do so. You do understand we can't just make guys sign whatever contract we want, right? He's got one year on his deal and is a Top CB in this league. In no way, shape, or form is he going to choose to take an "extension more appropriate for a Safety than a CB, which would save us some money". Why would he cost himself money? He's either going to be extended as one of our starting CB's this offseason (extremely likely) or he's going to get paid to do that elsewhere next season.
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Exactly. We won't be getting anyone in FA with that kind of cap hit. It will be a Taylor Rapp type (maybe even Rapp himself) and/or a 2nd-3rd Round Pick. Anyone that will cost anything more than 5 is a non starter given our cap situation and the amount of holes we need to fill.
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My God - this just gets more and more ridiculous. Douglas is our CB1. He was playing at a top PFF level amongst all CB's before his injury. Not only are you suggesting moving our CB1 to Safety to start Kaiir Elam at CB instead - you're suggesting he would then choose to sign a contract for Safety money instead of CB money? Why would he do that? He and his agent would laugh in our faces, play out his year with us, and go somewhere else and cash in as one of the top CB's on the market next season.
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I think Poyer stays. He probably shouldn't, but when we're already losing Hyde and with the complexity of the position in McD's defense, I don't see us wanting to completely overhaul both Safety positions. They're going to want to keep Poyer to keep a little bit of continuity there and to help bring along the new Safety, especially if it's a Rookie.
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Rapp is a Free Agent. So that would take re-signing him. Which I think is a real possibility. I don't see him breaking the bank and he falls in line with the type of player we can afford, given the amount of money we'll have when we dig ourselves out of 43.6m over the cap, and the amount of holes we have to fill. Plus, he has a year under McDermott's system already and at times it felt like we were in better shape with Poyer and Rapp then we were with Poyer and Hyde last year. Taron, like Douglas and Benford, isn't even a remote consideration to be moved. You don't take an All Pro at one position and move them to another. I'm honestly surprised it's even as close as 62-31 in favor of getting a True Safety over moving someone. No one is going to be moved. We'll draft someone to replace Hyde or sign a true Safety in FA. Cornerbacks don't get moved to Safety unless they're an aging absolute elite CB with the skills to translate like a Patrick Peterson or Troy Vincent, to extend their career. Or a CB who's played Safety before and was Drafted for versatility. You don't take young (especially young and performing well) CB's and just switch them to Safety. That's not how it works and that's 1000% not going to happen here.
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Incorrect. Simply being McDermott's first Draft pick and being liked are not reasons to keep a guy in the situation we're in. This is a business. It will be emotional to do it, but you have to. Business comes before personal. If we were in a better position financially or roster wise, maybe we could do a bit of a paycut and risk losing some money. But not only do we not have the money, we need money AND we're in a bad spot roster wise at a lot of different positions. But we are set at CB. So much so that you're pontificating moving someone to Safety. That's not how it's going to work. The guy with the out in his contract is moved out and we use that money this year and next year to get starters, like Safety, where we have holes. As for the restructure, you can only restructure so much. Short of ripping up his contract completely, we can't afford to pay him even half of what he's owed. Logically, it doesn't even make sense. For the uncertainty he provides and when his role on the team, given that uncertainty, is simply a reserve. Others have restructured, but not to the extent that it would take for him staying to feasibly work. White is an unknown commodity at this point. A player who never truly returned to form after the ACL, is now coming off an Achilles tear, and will be almost 30 - having played only 10 games in 2 calendar years by the time he returns. Someone who would have to sign a prove it deal, if he were on the market. The difference between what his contract is now and what his contract should be is too big of a gap for a simple restructure. And the kind of pay cut that would make any sense would be a slap in the face. In the position we're in, we can't afford to be emotional. Part of being a GM is making the difficult decisions. Emotionally, it's tough. But when it comes to business, which this is, we don't have a choice. Everyone who's reviewed our cap situation and come up with what we need to do has Tre White being released. The only one's who say he should stay are fans like yourself who don't want to see him go because of warm fuzzies. That's not how the NFL works. Teammates, coaches, fans, and management loved Jerry Hughes too. Micah Hyde was McDermott's first big signing and has been here just as long as Tre. He won't be here either. Tough decisions just have to be made sometimes.
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Are the Mafia really the best fans?
BillsFanForever19 replied to Meatloaf63's topic in The Stadium Wall
I let other people say we're the best fans. I'd say we're a little biased to comment on ourselves 😆 -
He was absolutely considered a bust before he signed with the Rams. The Bears flat out released him before he signed on with the Rams. I was saying that he was considered a bust before going to the Rams - not now. And after the Rams, I think there was some thought that his success there had more to do with Aaron Donald taking so much attention away from him. That led to teams not being as hot on him and him coming here on a 1 year deal to prove it wasn't just being next to Donald. He did fall off a bit down the stretch, but he was banged up. But for the majority of the season on a new team, he did look just as good here as he did in LA. On the other hand, much like last season, it's a pretty deep class for Pass Rushers in FA. So he may once again find himself with a smaller market than he hopes for.
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I just don't see how a paycut would happen that would make sense for us and White would be okay with. I mean he'd pretty much have to rip up his contract and be paid like a reserve for it to make any sense. If White were a FA, he'd be only offered incentive laden prove it deals. He never fully returned to form following the ACL. He had one game where he looked to be close to his old self. Then the Achilles happened. That's two back to back injuries that causes players to lose a step. And he'll be almost 30 when he returns. I'm not a capologist, but I don't think there's a restructure on his massive deal that can be done that would be worth the risk and the reward. You don't want to bench an ascending young talent like Benford, who is the present and future on one side. And we didn't make the move for Douglas to bench him either. He was traded as White's replacement, in my opinion. They're our Starters going forward. Douglas will most likely get an extension this offseason. Then you still have Taron Johnson as the Nickel and Kaiir Elam, who showed something against Pittsburgh after being injured all year. Even he'll be a reserve. Our starting CB's are set and we have a solid reserve that we invested a 1st in. White is a complete and total unknown at this point and is being paid like a Top Starting CB. If you remove emotion from the equation - it's really clear. There's a reason Spotrac and capologist has releasing Tre White as one of the first things we'll do. The out in his contract is now. And we have to get out from under it now. Maybe he comes back under an incentive laden deal after he sees the market he has is just that. But we have to move on with an injury settlement and take that money and get a TRUE Safety or one of the many other positions we need a starter at. You're not risking he can't return to form and being stuck paying good money for a position we're already set at, when money is tight and we have a number of positions that aren't set. It's a no brainer. Anyone who says otherwise is just thinking too emotionally.