FilthyBeast

Looking at the AFC here's my honest analysis: Locks (75% chance or better these teams are playing in Jan) 1)KC - likely #1 seed yet again 2)BAL - 75% certain they win AFCN but worse case would be #5 seed as WC 3)JAC - lock for AFCS 4) CIN - see #2, AFCN still in play So this brings us to the remaining 3 spots available and who I feel is in the mix for those in no particular order (Let's say 50% chance at playoffs): 1) MIA - I know this will surprise some folks especially those that claim I'm a Dolphins fan, but at this point not a lock for division because of their inability to beat a team with a winning record yet. In the end I still lean towards them winning the division and being a playoff team though. 2) NYJ - yes this offense is hideous but they are probably #2 defense in NFL behind KC and that is going to enable them to keep stealing games and they have a lot of key ones ahead of the yet including Miami x2 and Bills again. 3) BUF - Don't believe they will be in playoffs for obvious reasons but can't exclude them since they are still 5-4 at moment and at least in theory have a shot at going 7-4 before another likely loss on the road against a top team. 4) CLE - In playoffs right now. Defense top 5 but another team with big time questions on offense and many tough division games left. 5) PIT - Same as above and metrics say they should be much worse than their current record and division should also sort this out. 6) HOU - Don't sleep on this team. CJ Stroud looks like he's going to be in the NFL elite conversation very quickly. They have an easy schedule left and some quality wins already against a few of the teams listed above them. 7) LAC - If the defense we've seen the last few weeks is for real they are going to be a factor despite one of the more toughest schedules left. Life Support/25% chance or less to make playoffs 1) DEN - Despite all the talk of Russ Wilson being finished and getting 70 points dropped on them by the Dolphins, they are quietly playing solid football and coming out of a bye week facing a struggling Bills team. They win that one they are right back in the mix. 2) TEN - Similar to Broncos in some ways but this team doesn't look like they are ready to go away quietly just yet especially with Will Levis adding a spark at QB. 3) IND - Probably not going anywhere but they have been in pretty much every game and have talent in place to be a spoiler down the stretch at the very least. 4) LVR - Looked like a completely different team after dumping McDaniels. If they sustain that they can certainly be in the mix. 5) NE - All but finished an in the #1 overall pick conversation, ironically their upset of the Bills might prevent that in the end.

It seems we are all waiting for some sort of 'turning point' that likely isn't going to come. But obviously if it's going to happen it's this week against the Broncos with no turning back from there. No this team isn't going to win out even if they magically start playing better, but you have to look at the elite teams of years past (in the AFC specifically the Chiefs and Bengals) and how they always take their game to a different level when the calendar turns November.

I've said many times, if you take JA17 out of the equation does anybody really believe this team would have had the same success they have had since he's been here? And spare me the 2017 Tyrod Taylor/Peterman season because there were a myriad of factors (including pure luck on a 4th and 17 pass) that led to that. But as much of a critic I am of this regime, you do have to give credit to them to turning things around compared to the previous 17 years. But at the same time understand they have reached their ceiling in Buffalo and simply aren't capable of taking the next step and competing with the likes of Chiefs, Bengals (and many other rising teams) going forward. Because the harsh reality is the Bills probably aren't even the best team in the division anymore, and at best the 5th or 6th team in the entire conference right now. So with that said, it's time to move on and Pegula is prolonging the inevitable if they are still here in 2024 and beyond.

As much as it's easy to point the finger and McD/Dorsey as being the main reason for these issues. One really has to wonder what has really happened to JA17. I still think he's a top 10 NFL QB by default, but all the critics who have called him a fraud are being vindicated this season because there's simply no excuse for such wildly inconsistent play and enough anecdotal evidence is there that perhaps he is the main problem right now and is already on the downswing of what might be a very short NFL career akin to Cam Newton who many also warned as a relevant cautionary tale.

I've said for some time, when your defensive philosophy is not only 'bend but don't break' but building a team with smallish tweaner type players this is end result. Yes injuries suck, but again when you have a 'prototype' you keep drafting this you'll never have a unit with 11 guys fully healthy from start to finish. And even teams that build real, modern NFL defenses are going to have injuries happen here and there.

Well I tried warning you guys for a while but yes it sucks. Would simply encourage all of you to enjoy rest of season but assume the worst (i.e. no playoffs, losing season, Pegulas keeping McD/Beane and using injury excuse, etc). Life is too short to be emotional and mentally ravaged by this ***** football team.

I think the main issue with Groot unfortunately is the same one that has plagued many of this teams players and that's simply the ability to stay healthy and on the field. But this is year 3 and injuries aside, I've seen nothing from him that indicates he's going to be anything more in this league than average and probably a 8-10 sack a year type of ceiling.

In retrospect, I think we can finally put the '13 seconds would have won a SB' crap to bed because there was no way this team was beating this same Bengals team in the AFCCG that year either. In fact here's a very sobering thing to consider....if not for the Hamlin incident this team would be 0-3 against the Bengals right now in a span of 11 months going back to that fateful MNF game at the beginning of this year. I picked the Bengals to win the SB this year for a reason and sticking with that despite the fact that the Chiefs and Ravens will likely have something to say about it January.

Moving on from White is a no brainer even if he wants to attempt to recover and play again it's not going to be with this team. Miller you are probably stuck with unless he is will to restructure to essentially get paid to enable his release. Knox I think you try to trade if you are fine getting a late round pick and a willing partner will take on that contract in return.

Like I've said before, McD showed the world exactly who he is with the '13 second' debacle. You simply don't come back from that and that was proved definitively in the playoffs last year when they lucked out beating an injury riddle Dolphins team down to a rookie 3rd string QB and then getting curb stomped by the Bengals the following week. Can he continue to be a guy that gets a team to the playoffs under the right circumstances? Maybe, but it's clear that his message is stale and no longer resonating with this team as a whole which should be more than enough reason to move on from him despite the recent contract extension.

That's one way of looking at it but a few years from now all of Bills mafia is going to realize we kept the wrong GM/HC, actually come Feb if my prediction holds true. Also all the talk that Daboll is part of the 'McD coaching tree' is silly, he's obviously from the Belichik coaching tree if anything.

What exactly do you want me to post? Private messages and confidential emails???

Probably the same results because coaching matters in the equation and Zac Taylor >>>>>>> McD. But given how special Joe Burrow is it's truly hard to know, remember this guy has been a star since high school unlike JA17 and even Mahomes for that matter.

Belichik and the Patriots didn't it for years and is one of the major reasons why they dominated the AFCE (and entire league) the greater part of 20 years. Remember our old friend Lawyer Milloy? I like Hyde and Poyer and they've been great players for this team. This is not up for debate. But I think all the warning signs are there if you trust the local media pundits in regards to both of them looking a step slower in camp/preseason.

Hyde essentially missed all of last season and is on the wrong side of 30. And now alas we are hearing about a back injury (which is obviously not a minor problem for anyone that has had back issues) If it was up to me I would have moved on. Also there's a reason his running mate didn't get much interest on the FA market either.

Of course not and not to minimize that great performance but they caught a break playing a fading Patriots team at the right time. Again, JA17 can take the next step in the playoffs at some point but won't be with the current regime.

I was tempted to also pick them to go on a run for a perfect 17-0 season but Tua's health still a question mark. Regardless still a ridiculous stacked roster and I like that goofy mofo McDaniel to lead the Dolphins to the #1 seed this year and AFFCG appearance before ultimately losing to Bengals who go on to win SB.

5-2 career playoff record 3-1 career road playoff record in AFC (including @ KC and @ BUF) 1 SB appearance and led until late in 4th quarter Again no one is bashing JA17 but at the end of the day if you polled 32 NFL GM's, pretty much all of them would take Burrow over JA17 based on current body of work. And 31 out of 32 would certainly take Mahomes.

Ugghhhhh who didn't see this coming? The truly great NFL GM's in this league know when to move on from aging veterans and it was a massive mistake bringing back all these guys, especially at their current contracts. This is why I predict that Rapp will supplant Hyde or Poyer as starter sooner than later so I guess give Beane credit for that contingency plan.

JA17 is still a very special talent but unfortunately he doesn't seem to have the 'it' factor in the postseason like Mahomes/Burrow, outside of the '13 seconds' debacle when he played the game of his career only to be let down by horrendous coaching. Hopefully his next coach will truly bring out the best in him and elevate him to aforementioned QB's levels.

I'm not either. I was really torn between my heart and gut feeling but can't go against natural instinct anymore and hold on to delusions that this team is a SB contender anymore. The sad thing is that in hindsight they never were and there's a reason why they have been bounced out of the divisional round 2 years in a row by superior teams. Best case is if this team does crash and burn this year Terry Pegula gets real angry and impulsive and dumps both McD/Beane for a wartime regime especially with the bad taste in his mouth for millions of out of pocket overrages for the new stadium.

Bengals would be stupid not to. Burrow is a truly special talent and I still see him as '1B' to Mahomes. I think Bengals win their first SB this year too which will reignite the best QB in the NFL debate and still wouldn't be surprised if he eventually surpasses Mahomes in terms of championships in the coming years.

Because they are superstars that want to get paid and going leverage that in hopes their teams see what a glaring hole they have on the roster without them in the lineup. 49ers obviously in more trouble than Chiefs because they don't have an elite franchise QB.

I've felt for some time this iteration of the Bills needs their 'Bruce Smith'. Von Miller seemed to play that role to a certain degree last year, but what is really lacking is a disruptive force up front in their prime. (i.e. Chris Jones and why he's so important to the Chiefs and their recent SB wins.)

If the Jets can pound the ball at will against this dline the game will be over quickly and Rogers won't even be a factor. Dalvin Cook killed this team last year but not sure what Breece Hall snap count will be out of the gate.