GASabresIUFan

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/buffalo-bills/austin-johnson-18992/ Bills at DL depth with former Charger starter Austin Johnson. 1 year $3.5 million. Cap Hit TBD.

Do people here know that Rousseau played out of position last year because of Floyd and Miller and still graded out at one of the top Bills players last year? Rousseau was given an 3.32 (out of 4) by the Athletic and an 85.6 (out of 100) by PFF. While we could use a long-term replacement for Miller in the draft, Rousseau is not the issue.

While I disagree with much of the OP, there is definitely a case for trading down. The Bills are in desperate need of youth and cheap talent. The only place to get young cheap talent is in the draft. Right now we only have two picks in the top 100. We need at least 3-4 picks in the top 100 to help replenish this roster longterm. We also have a myriad of needs that need to be filled. 1. We don’t have any WRs who stretch the field 2. We need a future starter and better depth at safety. 3. We need a replacement for Miller 4. We need DT depth 5. We need a 3rd RB 6. We need a longterm replacement for Douglas at CB 7. We may need a replacement for Brown at OT and Van Denmark isn’t adequate depth Remember McD doesn’t like starting rookies. He likes to rotate them in to gain experience. The Douglas, Miller and Safety starter replacements should all come from this draft. My hope is Mitchell falls to us at 28. He gives speed, size and big play ability. (5 TDs in 5 CFP games in college). If not then trade down with Det, SF or Balt to get extra assets. Use these new assets plus our other 10 picks to maneuver back into the third round. I’m hoping for 6 roster players from this draft.

Updated Roster using a 51 man roster: Starters in Bold Offense 20 of 23 players (roster allocation to the position from 2023 in (x)). QB (2) - current 2: Allen & Trubisky RB/FB (4) - current 3: Cook, Johnson & Gilliam TE (3) - current 3: Kincaid, Knox, Morris WR (5) - current 4: Diggs, Shakir, Samuel, & Hollins (Shorter, Hamler & Isabella in the mix) Oline (9) - current 8: Brown, Dawkins, McGovern, Torrence, Edwards, Clapp, Anderson & Van Denmark (Doyle still in the mix) Defense 21 of 25 players Dline (10) - Current 8 - Jones, Oliver, Rousseau, Miller, Jonathan, Epenesa, A. Johnson & Toohill (Cline and Ankou also in the mix) LBs (5) - current 5 - Milano, Benard, Williams, Morrow, & Spector CB (6) - current 5 - Johnson, Douglas, Benford, Elam & Lewis (S) S (4) - Current 3 - Rapp, Edwards, & Hamlin Specialists 4 of 3 slots - Bass (PK), Ferguson (LS), Martin (P) & Haack (P) - one of Haack or Martin aren't going to make the team. Looks like there are 7 jobs still available - 1 RB, 1 WR, 1 OL, 2 DL, 1 CB & 1 S. Beane keeps adding more 1 year depth (Edwards, Clapp, Toohill, Morrow, Ty Johnson, A Johnson and Hollins to name 7). He still has about $5-6 million in current cap, plus White's 10 mill in June to work with. He also is interviewing D Lineman and I expect at least one more signing there. (Signed Austin Johnson on 3/23). My guess is down to 4-6 of these jobs going to draft picks (WR, S, CB, RB, 1DL?). It looks like we are down to only 1 maybe 2 starting jobs available - WR2 and maybe S. Even with the signing of Edwards, Safety looks like the worst group position on the team with Rapp & Edwards as possible starters and Lewis and Hamlin as the depth. Also need 2 players on the DL, including at least 1 DTs. Updated 3/24 to reflect A. Johnson signing

Clapp added to OP.

I thought i'd bump this thread. We have signed 2 WRs (Samuel 3 years, Hollins 1yr), 2 Safeties (Rapp 3 years & Edwards 1 year) and re-signed 2 key DL in Jones (2 years) and Epenesa (2 years). We also extended Dawkins and T Johnson. Key players on one year deals: Douglas (CB), Brown (DT). Keys Players who could be cut after 2024: Diggs (WR) and Miller (Edge). So far, Ty Johnson is the only RB behind Cook Given this back drop what positions will the Bills target? WR - This still has to be the highest priority even with 5 WRs currently on the roster. Hollins is more a special teams players and we have no one to stretch the field. 1st pick. Mitchel, Thomas, Coleman, Worthy, McConkey and even Burton interest me here S - Neither Rapp or Edwards were starters last year and both played about 50% of their team's downs last season. This is the weakest area on the team and the draft is full of safeties. Edwards shares his job last year with a younger player (Cook) in KC, I don't see a reason McD won't do the same with a high drafted rookie. 2nd or 3rd rd (if we get one). Bullard, Bullock, Brade, Hicks, Kinchens, etc.... Tons of choice. Later round sleeper - Tykee Smith Edge - Miller is likely gone after next season. This creates an opportunity to draft a kid now and develop him into a starter. They like Jonathan, but enough not to draft another player? Kamara, Kneeland & Eboigde DT - Depth is the key here and we don't have much behind Oliver and Jones and Jones spent much of the last year injured. Sweat, Hall, Fiske, Wingo OT - Depends on what they think about Van Denmark and the ability to afford to keep Brown. Rosengarten mid to late looks very interesting. OG/C - Torrence is young. Edwards was re-signed for two years. Anderson is already on the roster. Looks fine so far, but what if the McGovern to center experiment doesn't work or Edwards gets caved at guard as a starter? I think they need more depth here. Van Pran, Bortolini, Nugent CB - Douglas is the key. I was surprised they didn't extend him contract this off-season. That means either they think Elam can take over long-term or they need to draft a long-term replacement. RB - Cook, Johnson (1 yr deal) and ........? Beane will be drafting a RB. Kendall Milton late? LB - I think we are set here. QB - Once they signed Trubisky for two years, I guess they'll look at QB in 2025. TE - Doubt it.

There is a Bama DE, Justin Eboigbe who might be a great pick up at around 128. Also Burton, WR could be a target if Beane moves back into the 3rd round.

According to Pro-football reference, Edwards played 57% of KC's D snaps. He is listed as a FS. His cap hit last season was $3 million.

I have added Edwards to the OP. I've been trying to reconcile Spotrac and Over the Cap with little luck. Over the Cap does have us with about 200K more dead cap than Spotrac. So far, this is what I've determined. Spotrac has an additional approx $1 mill in the adjusted cap figure higher than Over the Cap. They also have 100 K higher listed cap hits by allocating a small amount to the cap for players under contract who aren't in the top 51. Over the cap seems to allocate a dead cap amount for these players as their Dead Cap number is about 200K higher than Spotrac's. No idea which site is utilizing the correct formula for adjusted cap and dead cap.

I was reading a review of the Bills off-season. The guy lost me when he said Samuel was a Davis replacement. If you are going to write and article about the Bills, it seems to me you should know that Samuel is not a replacement for Davis. He isn't a boundary receiver. If anything he is the new slot receiver and Shakir is being moved outside. The truth is the new boundary receiver is probably going to be an early round draft pick. My guess is some like Worthy or Legette in the second round. The question is how soon Brady incorporates the early draft pick into the offense. My guess is that the kid will force Brady's hand because he'll be the only true vertical/deep threat in the offense. If you look at how Brady coached at LSU and Carolina, the two boundary WRs received most of the targets, but he never had a TE like he now has with Kincaid. I see the Bills passing more next season, but many of these passes to Cook and Samuel as run substitutes such as a variety of screen plays and checkdowns. I'm think we'll see a continued decrease in Allen running plays, except in the red zone. We'll also see much less of Diggs this season. The funny thing is that I see his catch rate increasing which will keep him as an over 1000 yard receiver, despite a 20% drop in targets from 160 to 130 or less. Last year the targets (out of 545) were Diggs 160, Kincaid 91, Davis 81, Cook 54, Shakir 45, Knox 36, Other RBs 32, Other WR 43s & Morris 1. Next season I'm seeing Diggs at 125, Kincaid 120, Shakir 80, Samuel 70, Cook 60, Rookie WR 45, Knox 35, Hollins 25, others (Morris and Johnson) 15. Note: Pass Attempts were 579 and targets 545. I assume the rest to be Ints and throwaways.

The Bills have signed Casey Toohill to a one year deal. Pass rush depth signing.

After watching Beane work his magic, I'm not to worried about 2025 and the cap unless the NFL's income goes down drastically. If you cut Diggs and Miller after this season, you'd take and 38 Million dead cap hit, but save $12 million over the combine $50 cap hit. I'm sure Beane already has a plan in place, but I agree there doesn't seem to be as many obvious places to find cap help.

The Bills have 40 of the 50 roster spots on offense and defense already spoken for. Of these 40, Shorter, Doyle, Hamlin, seem the most vulnerable to losing their jobs. It would seem that this would be a great year to stock up on cheap talent through the draft especially given the depth in this draft at safety and receiver. We have needs for a speed WR, a high-end safety, a depth safety, more help at DT, a RB, a CB, maybe a P, and even a couple of O linemen. Sadly, I don’t see Beane making 11 picks. I see him using his picks to get back into the 3rd round. I agree with other posters that a trade down from 28 to the early second should garner a 3rd pick. However, I want to stay ahead of KC in the first. I see them taking a WR to pair with Rice and I don’t want them to choose a receiver before we do. If Mitchell and/or Thomas are around late in the 1st, I think Beane has to take one. I really want Mitchell. Rare size and speed combo. Overall I see Beane making 7-8 picks, with possibly all 7-8 making the team. Last year, the Bills made 6 picks. The top 3 made the team (including 2 starters), Shorter spent the year on IR and the 2 7th rd picks ended up on the PS before being claimed by other teams.

I’ve traded back in nearly every mock draft I’ve done on the various simulators. There is such a huge gap between our 2nd rd pick (60) and our next pick at 127, it just screams for some kind of move to get back into the top 100. I agree DT is a priority and I think he’ll use our 1st pick on a WR, but Beane has to add some help at safety. Rapp, Lewis and Hamlin is by far the weakest position group on the team and there are a ton of good safeties in this draft.

Harty and Sherfield had void years last season and they were on the roster.

I meant starting safety. Oops! I agree with your post. Rapp, Hamlin and Lewis are the weakest group on the roster. We need another starting safety and quality depth from the draft.

Here is our roster as it stands right now at 44 plus on 15 Futures/Reserve contracts. Specialists (4) - Bass (PK), Ferguson (LS), Haack (P) & Martin (P) - one of Haack or Martin will not make the team Offense (21) QB (2) - Allen & Trubisky RB/FB (3) - Cook, Johnson & Gilliam WR (5) - Diggs, Shakir, Samuel, Hollins & Shorter TE (3) - Kincaid, Knox, Morris OL (8) - Dawkins, Brown, McGovern, Edwards, Torrence, Anderson, Van Denmark and Doyle Defense (19) DL (6) - Jones, Oliver, Miller, Rousseau, Epenesa, and Jonathan LB (5) - Milano, Bernard, Williams, Spector, & Morrow CB (5) - Douglas, Benford, Elam, and Johnson S/DB (3) - Rapp, Hamlin, Lewis Futures/Reserve contracts (15) - If I had to guess Hamler, Gouriage, Jarvis, Cline and Ankou have the best chance of making the team Offense (10): Evans (RB), Buechele (QB), Hamler (WR), Isabella (WR), Shavers (WR), Thompson (WR), McKitty (TE), Davidson (TE), Gouriage (OT), & Jarvis (OG) Defense (10): Williamson (S), Ankou (DT), Cline (DT), Ingram (CB), Brown (CB)

This was incorrect. It was a one year deal (@ 2.5) with a void year to lower the cap hit to 1.8. His dead cap for 2024 is 667K.

The Bills have cap space of 7.965 according to Spotrac. This is without the cap savings from Taron's extension. That extension should garner 4-5 in cap space. That puts us somewhere about 12-13 million in cap. Subtract about 2.2 for Johnson and the top 3 draft picks and we still have 10-11 million to spend plus White's 10 million in June. That's plenty of money for DT depth and a possible starting center.

The first $1 million of Ty cap hit is already covered by the bottom player currently listed in out top 51. Basically if Ty’s contract is 1.4, he replaces the bottom player out of the top 51. Those players are about 985K at this point. Therefore the impact of Ty’s contract on the cap in this example would be just over 400K.

Cook's catch rate last year jumped from 65.6% to 81.5% on a 67% increase in targets. He jumped from 21 catches in 2022 to 44 in 2023 for 445 yards. It's possible Samuel eats into come of those catch opportunities, but I watch Cook a great deal in college, and he steadily improved each season. In the final year, he was amazing at catching the ball out of the backfield. I suspect he'll be even better this coming season. He has that work ethic to get better.

The Bills were definitely more balanced between rush and pass that season (579 to 512). Cook's carries jumped to 237 from 89, while Josh's carries fell from 124 to 111. I think that is a trend that will likely continue and is one of the reasons Beane and the Bills is working hard to add more weapons.

Sorry, passing game coordinator.

I'm very happy Beane extended Taron Johnson. The guy has earned the extension. From a cap standpoint, Spotrac has the Bills 11.5 to the good before factoring in Ty Johnson, Samuel, Taron Johnson and about $2 million (or less) for the draft picks. I'm going to assume for arguments sake that Samuel's cap hit will be similar to DaQuan Jones' (4.5 to 5) and that the cap savings from Taron's extension will cover most of that cap hit. That probably leaves the Bills with 7-8 million in available cap after factoring in the draft picks, Taron, Ty and Samuel. Sounds like enough money to add another starting Safety.

Great move.