GASabresIUFan

Not sure what the OP is really getting at, but the most recent time we drafted immediate starters in the 1st 2 rounds of the draft was last year in Kincaid and Torrence. https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/buf/draft.htm If you look at the Bills sorry draft history and looking for good players with our 1st two picks, you come back with 2018 (Allen & Edmunds), 2017 (White, Zay Jones & Dion Dawkins - although Jones is better in Jax then he ever was with us), 2007 (Lynch & Pusluszny), 2003 (McGahee and Kelsey), and 2001 (Clements & Schobel). Not exactly a great drafting history. I am excited about the last two drafts, especially 2022. So far there are 4 starters from that class (Cook (2nd), Bernard (3rd), Shakir (5th) & Benford (6th)) and that is even with the 1st rd miss in Elam. This rivals 2018 (Allen, Edmunds, Philips, Taron Johnson and Wyatt Teller) and 2017 (White, Jones, Dawkins, and Milano) What is the best class in Bills' history? 1985 - Bruce Smith, Chris Burkett, Frank Reich, Andre Reed and Dale Hellestrae? Of the 12 Bills draftees to play 200 or more NFL games, 3 come from the 1985 class. (Class also includes 2 of the 6 Bills HOF draftees who actually played for Buffalo.)

It looks like KC may have to draft two WRs in the upcoming draft.

Taro Tsujimoto jr., PK, Osaka Buffaloes

I hope this helps. https://nfltraderumors.co/nfl-announces-top-25-performance-incentive-bonuses/ https://www.si.com/nfl/giants/2024-giants-PBP-payouts#:~:text=The PBP is classified as a benefit for,contracts and which do count toward the cap.

Benard also made the list at 777K (No. 17). I wonder how much Benford received?

I view those projections with a grain of salt. We have no idea what the cap figure will be. Who would have projected this season at 255? If you add White's $10 to the 8.5 we are currently under the cap, there may even be a cap carryover for next season. When I project the Bill's opening day roster, I see 46 current signees making the team plus 5-6 draft picks. Add in our dead cap (about 30 million with White) and the Bills are at about $240 million for next season. That's leaves a $15 million carry over (give or take some) for 2025. This is with draft picks but without a practice squad or other moves, but it illustrates how much flexibility the Bills still have for 2024 and into 2025. The 46 player depth chart looks like this (Starter) Specialists - Bass (PK), Haack (P) & Ferguson (LS) - I think Haack beats out Martin Offense QB - Allen & Trubisky RB - Cook, Ty Johnson, DRAFT PICK, Gilliam WR - Diggs, Shakir, Samuel, Hollins, Shorter & DRAFT PICK TE - Kincaid, Knox & Morris OL - Brown, Dawkins, D. Edwards, McGovern, Torrence, Van Demark, Clapp, Anderson & DRAFT PICK Defense DL - Rousseau, Oliver, Jones, Miller, Epenesa, DS Williams, Jonathan, Toohill, A. Johnson & DRAFT PICK LB- Milano, Benard, Do Williams, Spector, & Morrow CB - Ta Johnson, Benford, Douglas, Elam, Lewis (S) & DRAFT PICK S - M. Edwards, Rapp, Hamlin & DRAFT PICK

I don’t know anything about gambling, but this sounds like Draft Kings has heard and verified trade talks between Buffalo and Houston.

Actually Georgia holds the record of 15 players taken in a 7 rd draft from just two years ago. 1st rd - 5 Dawgs - Walker (1st overall), Jordan Davis (13th), Quay Walker (22nd), Wyatt (28th) and Cine (32nd) 2nd rd - Pickens and Cook 3rd rd - Dean and Tindall 4th rd - White & Camarda 6th rd - Shaffer, Salyer, Kendrick & FitzPatrick https://theathletic.com/4179169/2022/04/30/georgia-breaks-nfl-draft-modern-record-with-15-players-selected-in-2022-most-in-7-round-format/ LSU had 14 in Joe Burrows year with Burrow, Chase and Jefferson leading the way. Go Dawgs!

I'd say right now he is. Diggs had 1183 on 107 catches (160 targets) or 11.1 yds/c. Pickens had 1140 on only 63 catches (106 targets) or 18.1 yds/c. Diggs had only 19 20+ yard plays, while Pickens had 42. Pickens did all this on a team with terrible QB play. What would his stats be with a good QB targeting him 160 times a season? 1700 yards? More?

Maybe the QB was the issue, which is why Pittsburgh traded away the old QB and acquired two replacements. Put Pickens with Josh Allen and we'll see what happens. By the way Diggs had 5 100 yard games this past season and 6 under 50 yards. Chase also had 5 100 yards games, but 7 games under 50 yards.

2022: 2nd rd picks GEORGE PICKENS (1941 yards in 2 seasons including 1140 last year); plus Christian Watson (an emerging star if he can stay healthy) and Alec Pierce, plus Romeo Dobbs in the 4th and Shakir in the 5th 2021: the 2nd rd was not great but Elijah Moore is a solid player from the 2nd, Josh Palmer is good from the 3rd, Nico Collins from the 3rd is an emerging star and Amon St Brown from the 4th is a huge star already. 2020: Did you forget Michael Pittman in the 2nd rd? Davis and Mooney were good later round picks. 2019: Deebo Samuel, AJ Brown & DK Metcalf were all 2nd rd picks. Diontae Johnson and Terry McLaurin went in the 3rd

Looking at the Bills roster, this is looking more and more like a BPA draft. The Bills have 5 WRs on the roster and carried 5 last season The Bills have 9 DT & Edge players including all the starters and carried 10 last year. The Bills have 4 safeties on the roster (including Lewis) and carried 4 last season On defense there are openings for 1 depth DL, and 2 depth DBs. On offense there are openings for 1 3rd string RB, and 1 backup OL. Shorter's grasp of the 5th WR role is tenuous. The top needs are still (IMHO) in order WR, S, IOL, DL, CB and RB

I call BS. I watched this kid for two years at UGA battle through injuries and always worked his way back to the field and contributed. He was finally healthy his one year at Texas and was excellent all season. He transferred to Texas to be close to his daughter. I have zero questions about this young man's character.

As I reviewed the new player contracts, I noticed Toohill received only a 15K signing bonus. His dead cap if released is only 15K. When I compared that to other lower end veteran contracts (Like Ty Johnson and Morrow), their dead cap was about 50% of their cap hit. I took this to mean that management believes that Toohill might be beaten out for one of the backup DL roles, maybe by one of the draft picks. Edit: DT depth added. Bills sign DT DeShawn Williams. Another former Panther. Updated Roster using a 51 man roster: Starters in Bold Offense 21 of 23 players (roster allocation to the position from 2023 in (x)). QB (2) - current 2: Allen & Trubisky RB/FB (4) - current 3: Cook, Johnson & Gilliam TE (3) - current 3: Kincaid, Knox, Morris WR (5) - current 5: Diggs, Shakir, Samuel, Hollins & Shorter (Hamler & Isabella in the mix) Oline (9) - current 8: Brown, Dawkins, McGovern, Torrence, Edwards, Clapp, Anderson & Van Denmark (Doyle still in the mix) Defense 22 of 25 players Dline (10) - Current 9 - Jones, Oliver, Rousseau, Miller, Jonathan, Epenesa, D. Williams, A. Johnson & Toohill (Cline and Ankou also in the mix) LBs (5) - current 5 - Milano, Benard, Williams, Morrow, & Spector CB (6) - current 5 - Johnson, Douglas, Benford, Elam & Lewis (S) S (4) - Current 3 - Rapp, Edwards, & Hamlin Specialists 4 of 3 slots - Bass (PK), Ferguson (LS), Martin (P) & Haack (P) - one of Haack or Martin aren't going to make the team. Notes on Williams, A Johnson and Clapp. Williams earned 1.75 with the Panthers last year. He was undrafted out of Clemson in 2015. Clapp made 1.159 with the Chargers last year. Johnson was also with Chargers last year and made 6.75. His new Bills contract is for 1 year at 3.5.

Cap space at $10 mill with the, D Williams, Clapp and A. Johnson’s contracts not accounted for. Edwards (S) signed for 2.8 for 1 year and the cap hit is the same. Updated to reflect the Williams signing.

I never said that. I said they may not draft a receiver as early as people here, including me, hope. Last year our 3 starting WRs were 2 5th rd picks (Diggs & Shakir) and a 4th rd pick (Davis). Just because a player was drafted on day 3 doesn’t mean they won’t be given a chance to earn PT. Davis earned significant PT as a rookie. Brady increased Shakir’s usage and targets and Shakir delivered, likely earning Brady and McD’s trust in the process.

What if the plan is to not to draft a receiver high at all? Sounds crazy right! However, I believe there is a scenario where Shakir becomes the Davis replacement next season. Shakir's combine stats were nearly identical to Diggs' his draft year. Their size, speed, jumping ability are nearly identical. Last season, Shakir's 15.7 yards per catch was 12th in the NFL of wideouts with 30 or more receptions. For comparison purposes, Mike Evans finished 10th in that stat at 15.9 and Justin Jefferson 11th at 15.8 (Davis was 6th at 16.6). Shakir also had 17 20+ yard plays in only 45 targets. To put that number into context, Tyreek Hill lead the NFL with 57 plays of 20+ yards on 171 targets. That's 1 20 yard or longer play for every 3 targets. Shakir's 17 20+ yard plays were 1 on every 2.6 targets. Obvious this is a bit of a small sample size, but it does get one thinking. Now add in that management spent their biggest FA contract on a slot receiver (Samuel) and this scenario begins to gain some traction. Now add that management moved a guard to center, so is it really so far fetched to think they might move a receiver from the slot to the boundary, especially with Samuel and Kincaid to patrol the interior? I'll add two other pieces of data in support of this scenario: 1. Beane has never drafted a WR in the 1st 3 rounds of a draft; 2. McD/Beane hate starting rookies. We can look to Shakir's usage from year 1 to year 2 to illustrate how Bills management feels about playing most rookies. All that said, I personally believe Beane will break with tradition and draft a WR in the 1st 3 rounds in April, but I do believe that Shakir has a great chance of being the WR2 opening next season. I believe this because Beane is also going to replace Diggs possibly after the 2024 season and certainly after the 2025 season. My guess is in 2026 the starting WR1 and WR2 will be Shakir and whomever we draft in April. As much as I want Thomas or Mitchell in Bills Blue and Red next season, I can see Beane trading back to add the 3rd rd pick traded for Douglas and then utilizing a 2nd rd pick or the new third on the receiver. Guys like Worthy, Legette, Coleman or even Burton or Devontez Walker could be the guys on the radar. FYI: Mitchell 6-2, 205 lbs, 39.5 in vertical, 4.34 in the 40. Walker 6-1.5, 193 lbs, 40.5 in vertical, 4.36 in the 40. Not to be cynical, but the difference between a 1st rd pick and a 2nd rd pick in cap cost is almost $1.3 million.

I sometimes think they approved replay in the first place to sell more ad time.

1. Adonai Mitchell. First of all the kid is named after G-d (Adonai is G-d in Hebrew). That has to count for something. He has played in 5 CFP games and caught a TD in each game. He is tall, fast and is everything this offense needs. 2nd fastest 40 time in the combine among WRs. 10TDS and averaged 15.9 yards per catch last season for the Longhorns 2. Javon Bullard. We need a safety that tackles well, knows how to make the big play, (ask MHJr how hard he plays and hits) and can cover a WR. That is Bullard. Defensive MVP in the CFP semi-final (Peach Bowl) and CFP Title game in 2023. QB rating when targeted in coverage last season - 36.6. 3. Sedric Van Pran. We need a long-term starting center. Van Pran started 43 consecutive games at center for UGA. High football IQ, 2nd team all-American, 1st team all-SEC. Captained an offense similar to what Brady wants to run in Buffalo. These three guys also all have a winning pedigree and each has 2 national championship rings.

Yes

Taron Johnson’s extension now in the numbers. $12.5 under the cap before the recent signings. Beane says he has about $8 million.

One of my takeaways from the off-season so far is that Beane does not want to hand a starting job to any rookie. He has brought in enough depth that he can afford to do BPA on his draft board even in the 1st rd. It's hard to ignore that Beane has never drafted a WR in the 1st 3 rounds (Davis was the highest and in the 4th rd) and he has actually never drafted a safety at all. He has drafted many CB's, some of which were converted to safeties (like Hamlin), but never any guys designated as safeties in their draft year according to pro-football reference. I should also be noted the only DB (S or CB) drafted above the 4th round was Elam. For example: We all think (hope, want, expect?) Beane to draft a WR in the 1st round. Personally, I'd love to see any of Mitchell, McConkey, Worthy, Franklin, or Thomas. However, Beane has built in flexibility here. He currently has 5 WRs on the books and only carried 5 last year. Here is a scenario if he doesn't even draft a WR. Diggs is 1, Shakir moves the boundary as the 2, Samuel is the slot, and Hollins and Shorter become the "big" receivers. Maybe Hamler also makes the team as a kick returned and deep threat. This scenario occurred to me when compared Shakir and Digg's combine data. Diggs - 6'0 195, 40 - 4.46, 10 - 1.53, Vertical - 35" , Broad 9'7" Combine Total Score 81; Prospect Grade 6.10 (Draft 5th rd by Minn) https://www.nfl.com/prospects/stefon-diggs/32004449-4721-8895-fc23-d2bf4c921bd4 Shakir - 6'0 196, 40- 4.43, 10 - 1.49, Vertical 34.5, Broad 10'4" Combine Total Score 78, Prospect grade 6.18 (Draft 5th rd by Buf) https://www.nfl.com/prospects/khalil-shakir/32005348-4110-7427-f34a-bb0aa1d8e556 After looking at how similar their combine scores were, with Shakir being the slightly faster and higher grades prospect, I realized if Diggs could excel outside, why couldn't Shakir?

I’d give Beane a solid B for this off-season so far. He was facing a huge uphill battle to get under the cap (a problem of his own making). However, with a little help from the NFL, Miller and Knox he managed to get the job done with minimal damage to the starting group. With the retention of Jones and Epenesa, Beane brings back 17 of 22 starters on O & D. On offense starts Morse and Davis depart and on defense Hyde, Poyer and Floyd depart, but Floyd is replaced by Espenesa. Reviewing the major areas of change: OL - Out with Morse and Bates. In with the Clapp. McGovern moves to center and Edwards moves to from back up guard to starter. The line was a major strength last year and could be again if McGovern can replace Morse effectively. WR - Out with Davis, Harry and Sherfield. In with Hollins and Samuel. Samuel and Hollins are upgrades over Harty and Sherfield, but neither stretches the field nor are they a replacement for Davis. Samuel is a slot receiver whose numbers, such as Yards/catch, catch%, YAC/catch, and explosive plays, are all inferior to the slot receiver we already have in Shakir. When they draft a boundary receiver, Samuel will ultimately be relegated to our 5th best receiving option. Not sure spending $8 million on the 5th option is a wise cap decision. That said this group is deeper and more talented than last year. D Line - Out - Floyd, Settle, Ford, Phillips and Lawson. In - Johnson and Toohill. Obviously, we are still down a few players and this is where the biggest questions lie. Can Miller, Epenesa or a draft pick step-up to replace the loss of Floyd? Can Jones stay healthy? If the answers are yes, then the line will be fine. I’m also interested to see what Jonathan can do. Safety - Out with Hyde (?) and Poyer. In with Edwards. Rapp becomes a starter. Going from aging stars Poyer and Hyde to Rapp and Edwards is a downgrade. Beane says he’s open to Hyde returning. I’d be happier with a stud early in the draft like Bullard, Bullock, Kinchens, or Hicks. Beane needs to invest here finally. Overall the two lines and the safeties have been downgraded on paper this off-season, but I’m not overly concerned about the lines. The safeties do concern me. Edwards and Rapp only played 50% of their team’s snaps last season for a reason. Each guy only started because of injuries and neither graded out all that well. PFF graded both at 56.5 & 56.4 respectively. Only the WR group has been upgraded, but not in the area of greatest need. The bottomline is with the starters mostly intact, the team will be very good assuming they stay healthy. The offense should be more dynamic with Samuel and assuming they draft a deep threat. Hopefully Miller, Epenesa and Jonathan step up on the D line to actually make it as effective as last year and that McGovern plays as well as Morse did to anchor the OLine.

Isn’t that what Samuel, Shakir and Diggs basically are? I love Ladd the player. As a GA fan he and Bowers drove teams crazy. He has speed, good hands, knows how to get open and was lined up anywhere. He was amazing at finding seams in the defense and then blowing by the DB or LB for 40 yards. Ladd has a habit of making DB’s look foolish, as he did at the Senior Bowl. All that said, I still want ex-Dawg Adonai Mitchell. He just knows how to make big time plays. He’s kind of a bigger faster version of Ladd.

Roster spots are going to be hard to come by for rookies and players on futures deals. With the addition of A. Johnson (1yr 3.5 million) on the DL, 44 jobs are now taken my vets. Did we really need the Clapp when signing so many Johnsons?