GASabresIUFan

Davis - Yards/Reception for his career 16.7. Yards/game 42.7. Success % 51.5 Samuel - Yards/reception for his career 10.7. Yards/game 37.2. Success % 48 Not sure how he is an upgrade on anything. He doesn’t stretch the field as well as Davis, he does gain more yards despite more catches, and he doesn’t help 1st downs at a greater rate than Davis. Do you know the other thing he doesn’t do as well as Davis? He doesn’t stay as healthy.

I didn’t want any WR FAs. The stats show that they usually underperform their contracts and we already have Kincaid, Diggs and Shakir. We have the underneath stuff covered. Samuel is a 650 yards receiver who doesn’t win catch battles. A Rookie receiver drafted 20-40 over the last 5 years has averaged about 700 yards as a rookie. We need someone who can stretch the field, not another mediocre underneath presence. Now play this out. What will the people on this board say if we draft someone like Mitchell or Worthy at 28 and they drive Samuel to the bench? What will they say when Samuel drops some key 3rd down catches, which he does with regularity? They’ll say why did Beane waste money of this guy. I was really happy with how this offseason was going, but these two terrible WR signings make me really wonder what Beane is doing for the offense.

So what was the compliant about Diggs, Shakir and Kincaid after the season? Why it was that they were all underneath players and that we needed some who could stretched the field. What does Beane give us? Why another underneath player (Samuel) and a tall older slow WR (Hollins), neither of which stretch the field. These signings make no sense at all when given the back drop of what the Bills were allegedly trying to do this off-season, aka get younger, cheaper and hopefully more talented.

We got the wrong Samuel. Y'all will be hating this signing by mid-season. He was supposed to be able to stretch the field when he came our of college, but all he is a mediocre version of Diggs who can run a jet sweep occasionally. This is a waste of 15 million. I was all onboard with Beane finally make this team younger and cheaper, but instead he wastes money on two exceedingly mediocre WRs.

When I look at the roster I see 40 slots pretty much locked in already for next season. Of those 40 I see 5 guys who could potentially get cut (Martin, Shorter, Anderson, Van Denmark and Spector), with Martin being the most vulnerable. The only starting job still up for grabs are the replacements for Davis and Poyer at WR & S respectively. I think Beane's biggest remain move before the draft will be getting a replacement for Poyer (I'm assuming the Rapp is Hyde's replacement). Sadly, the FA safety market is getting pretty thin. How much for Quandre Diggs on a 1 yr deal? Could Beane still be looking to add a significant piece the defensive front?

They re-signed Johnson today and Jackson has signed elsewhere. I think the Lewis and Hollins signings make it very unlikely Neal returns, but you never know. I didn't think Beane would find a way to get Jones & Epenesa back, but he did. Updated Roster: Offense 19 of 23 players (roster allocation to the position from 2023 in (x)). QB (2) - current 2: Allen & Trubisky RB/FB (4) - current 3: Cook, Johnson & Gilliam TE (3) - current 3: Kincaid, Knox, Morris WR (5) - current 4: Diggs, Shakir, Hollins & Shorter (Hamler & Isabella in the mix) Oline (9) - current 7: Brown, Dawkins, McGovern, Torrence, Edwards, Anderson & Van Denmark (Doyle still in the mix) Defense 18 of 25 players Dline (10) - Current 6 - Jones, Oliver, Rousseau, Miller, Jonathan, & Epenesa (Cline and Ankou also in the mix) LBs (5) - current 5 - Milano, Benard, Williams, Morrow, & Spector CB (6) - current 4 - Johnson, Douglas, Benford, & Elam S (4) - Current 3 - Rapp, Hamlin, & Lewis (CB) Specialists 4 of 3 slots - Bass (PK), Ferguson (LS), Martin (P) & Haack (P) - one of Haack or Martin aren't going to make the team. Looks like there are 11 jobs still available - 1 RB, 1 (maybe 2) WR, 2 OL, 4 DL, 2 CB & 1 S. My guess is 6-7 of these jobs will go to draft picks (WR, S, CB, OL, RB, 2DL?). I'm happy about Ty Johnson coming back. It looks like we are down to only 2 starting jobs available - WR2 and S. Safety looks like the worst group position on the team with Rapp as a starter and Lewis and Hamlin as the depth. Also need 2-4 players on the DL.

Yep, the Falcons should now be able to compete for a playoff spot. We are a house divided; 2 Bills fans, 2 Falcons fans (but all Braves, Sabres & UGA fans). The Falcons fans are going to be very excited for the coming season.

Wow, a great trade for the Falcons. Moore, London and Moody are a pretty good receiving group.

Don't forget the Bills clear another 10 mill on 6/1 when White is officially released. Has any seen the contract terms (and cap hits) for Hollins and Morrow or the cap hit for Jones? I'm surprised that we haven't seen any numbers on the cap changes for Knox and Dawkins.

He earned a new deal. I’m glad he’s back.

I read on CBSsports last night an article saying what a good signing this was. That Hollins would be the replacement for Davis and he'd finally have an elite QB throwing to him. I almost choked on the glass of water I was drinking. I went to post the article here, but CBS has taken it down. I guess an editorial review decided that the author's suspect conclusions weren't worthy of remaining online.

Thank you. Why waste any $ over the minimum on a guy who at best will be our 6th or 7th pass catching option. As someone who lives in the ATL and watches (unfortunately) many Falcons games, nothing but his size stands out about Hollins.

Davis made 2.742 last season (according to spotrac). I agree that spending anything on Hollins is a waste. At best he'll be our 4th WR. His 251 yards last season were 18 more than Sherfield and Harty combined. So that's a plus and he was solid for LV in 2022. The guy is a big target (6'4 220) and this may be a hint that they don't have much faith in Shorter who is also 6'4. Beane, for reasons unknown, like to waste cap money on unproductive veteran receivers. From a roster standpoint, he is the "big receiver." I guess we expect the speed receiver to come from the draft (Mitchell or Worthy?), because speed is not Hollins game (4.53 at the combine in 2017).

I hope everyone is happy, the Bills signed a veteran WR!

Shakir was a 5th rd pick. Davis a 4th. Puca Nacua was a 5th rd pick last year. So yes, why not? We paid nearly $5 mill to the vet no. 5 WR last season and received 15 catches for 150 yards for our efforts. Sherfield played 34% and only gave us 22 catches for 86 yards. I'd say he didn't earn his 1.7 million. My guess is Shorter gets us 3 times that number for 1/2 the money. Even high end FA WRs are also a 50/50 proposition at best. Last year ODJ was paid $15 million for caught 35 balls for 565 yards. Lazard was give a 4 year deal for $44 million and caught 23 for 311. JuJu was paid 8.6 for 29 catches & 260 yards. Out of the top 10 FAs that changed teams only 4 gave their teams any value. Thielen ($8.3) 103 for 1014 was the best, Slayton ($6) 50 for 770. Meyers ($11) 71 for 807 and Hopkins ($13) 75 for 1057. Harty was the 10th highest paid FA WR last season. The No 11 Parris Campbell ($4.7) caught 20 balls for 104 yards. A few weeks ago I researched how WRs drafted 20 -40 do their first year and they averaged about 700 yards as rookies. Give me the rookie to replace Davis, and I'm just fine with Shorter replacing Sherfield and another later pick or Hamler/Isabella replacing Harty. If you want to take a flyer on a cheap vet, I'd give Mecole Hardman a shot. Last I looked he has a couple of Super Bowl rings and caught the game winning catch this year.

Why invest a 1st rd pick in a talented WR not to play him? That's what we'd be doing if we invest Big $ in a FA WR. Last season our No. 4 WR played 33.68% of the downs and the 5th WR 13.32%. On the other hand Diggs played 81.5%, Davis 83% and Shakir 52%. Kincaid also played 60%. Shakir and Kincaid will see they % increase next season. I'd argue that after Diggs, Kincaid is now the No. 2 receiver. KC's no. 1 receiver was a rookie drafted 55th. After his 900+ yards and Kelce's 900+ yards, their next best receiver was a journeyman pro with 460 yards. GB's Top 4 WRs and top 2 TES were all 1st and 2nd year players and that didn't hold them back. WR's and RBs are the most plug and play positions in the NFL. We have tons of experience in Diggs and Knox. Shakir is a 3rd year player. We really don't need some "veteran" to win. Draft a WR early and let him replace Davis. We have enough experience everywhere else. Save the money, we can afford the risk.

Why is that even necessary? Why spend money on a retread WR when you can draft as good and possibly better player with your 28th pick in a deep WR draft for 1/3rd the price. The goal this off-season is to get younger and cheaper, but at WR it's also a goal to upgrade the talent. Adding an injury prone 600 yard receiver for $10 mill is a huge waste of resources, especially when that 2nd boundary position could be Josh's 6th most popular target behind Diggs, Kincaid, Shakir, Knox and Cook. Sorry, I just don't see the need for big $ FA help at WR.

Don't expect any major money invested here. When guys like Mooney are getting $10+ a year, Beane is going to stay far far away.

Given Beane’s draft history it’s doubtful he makes 11 picks. Even if he makes 11 picks, it’s going to be hard for all 11 to make the team. Even if they don’t make the team, odds favor the guys ending up on the practice squad. Don’t forget that in addition to the 39 guys I referenced there are another 18 guys on reserve/futures contracts. Now add the draftees plus some UDFAs and camp invites there will be 40-50 guys competing for those 13 jobs and 12 practice squad slots. Last season of our 6 draftees, 3 made the team, 1 ended up on IR and the 2 7th rd guys ended up on the practice squad. Both those guys were eventually claimed by other teams.

I think that's a good thing. This roster needed to get younger and cheaper. It also needed player who weren't mostly special teams specialists like Neal & Matakevich. I also think we needed youth on the field to develop properly long-term. Giving snaps to the Matakevich's of the world doesn't help Ankou or Cline or Spector get any better IMHO.

With the signing of Morrow, the team breakdown now looks as follows (not including futures/reserve players Total current players = Offense 17 of 23 players (roster allocation to the position from 2023 in (x)). QB (2) - current 2: Allen & Trubisky RB/FB (4) - current 2: Cook & Gilliam TE (3) - current 3: Kincaid, Knox, Morris WR (5) - current 3: Diggs, Shakir, & Shorter Oline (9) - current 7: Brown, Dawkins, McGovern, Torrence, Edwards, Anderson & Van Denmark (Doyle still in the mix) Defense 18 of 25 players Dline (10) - Current 6 - Jones, Oliver, Rousseau, Miller, Jonathan, & Epenesa (Cline and Ankou also in the mix) LBs (5) - current 5 - Milano, Benard, Williams, Morrow, & Spector CB (6) - current 4 - Johnson, Douglas, Benford, & Elam S (4) - Current 3 - Rapp, Hamlin, & Lewis (CB) Specialists 4 of 3 slots - Bass (PK), Ferguson (LS), Martin (P) & Haack (P) - one of Haack or Martin aren't going to make the team. Looks like there are 13 jobs still available - 2 RB, 2 WR, 2 OL, 4 DL, 2 CB & 1 S. My guess is 6-7 of these jobs will go to draft picks (WR, S, CB, OL, RB, 2DL?). Still hopeful Ty Johnson returns at RB.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/buf/2023-snap-counts.htm Benard 999 (93.19%) Dodson 549 (51.21%) Milano 211 (19.68%) Williams 211 (19.68%) Spector 25 (2.33%) Matakevich 16 (1.49%)

Really interesting signing. I guess that means the Spector is going to be the primary LB on Special Teams. I suppose he is Milano health insurance? I guess we can scratch LB depth off the draft list.

I'm sure front offices project everything. Assets are assets after all and draft picks are players and the higher the pick, usually the better the player. My guess is they figured they'd get a 3rd compensatory and therefore giving up a 3rd for Douglas was well worth it. Getting a pick, 40 picks later has to be a disappointment.

I was annoyed at spotrac, so I did a cap calculation with 6 million allocated to Jones and 1.5 to Lewis, but without deducting for Dawkins and Knox and we are approximately 5 million over. Given that calculation and assuming Knox and Dawkins save us at least $6 million we are probably good unless we sign someone else. Spotrac estimates over 11 million for our draft picks, but only a 6.7 million cap hit in our top 51. Not sure when that cap has to be available.