GASabresIUFan

As I reviewed the new player contracts, I noticed Toohill received only a 15K signing bonus. His dead cap if released is only 15K. When I compared that to other lower end veteran contracts (Like Ty Johnson and Morrow), their dead cap was about 50% of their cap hit. I took this to mean that management believes that Toohill might be beaten out for one of the backup DL roles, maybe by one of the draft picks. Edit: DT depth added. Bills sign DT DeShawn Williams. Another former Panther. Updated Roster using a 51 man roster: Starters in Bold Offense 21 of 23 players (roster allocation to the position from 2023 in (x)). QB (2) - current 2: Allen & Trubisky RB/FB (4) - current 3: Cook, Johnson & Gilliam TE (3) - current 3: Kincaid, Knox, Morris WR (5) - current 5: Diggs, Shakir, Samuel, Hollins & Shorter (Hamler & Isabella in the mix) Oline (9) - current 8: Brown, Dawkins, McGovern, Torrence, Edwards, Clapp, Anderson & Van Denmark (Doyle still in the mix) Defense 22 of 25 players Dline (10) - Current 9 - Jones, Oliver, Rousseau, Miller, Jonathan, Epenesa, D. Williams, A. Johnson & Toohill (Cline and Ankou also in the mix) LBs (5) - current 5 - Milano, Benard, Williams, Morrow, & Spector CB (6) - current 5 - Johnson, Douglas, Benford, Elam & Lewis (S) S (4) - Current 3 - Rapp, Edwards, & Hamlin Specialists 4 of 3 slots - Bass (PK), Ferguson (LS), Martin (P) & Haack (P) - one of Haack or Martin aren't going to make the team. Notes on Williams, A Johnson and Clapp. Williams earned 1.75 with the Panthers last year. He was undrafted out of Clemson in 2015. Clapp made 1.159 with the Chargers last year. Johnson was also with Chargers last year and made 6.75. His new Bills contract is for 1 year at 3.5.

Cap space at $10 mill with the, D Williams, Clapp and A. Johnson’s contracts not accounted for. Edwards (S) signed for 2.8 for 1 year and the cap hit is the same. Updated to reflect the Williams signing.

I never said that. I said they may not draft a receiver as early as people here, including me, hope. Last year our 3 starting WRs were 2 5th rd picks (Diggs & Shakir) and a 4th rd pick (Davis). Just because a player was drafted on day 3 doesn’t mean they won’t be given a chance to earn PT. Davis earned significant PT as a rookie. Brady increased Shakir’s usage and targets and Shakir delivered, likely earning Brady and McD’s trust in the process.

What if the plan is to not to draft a receiver high at all? Sounds crazy right! However, I believe there is a scenario where Shakir becomes the Davis replacement next season. Shakir's combine stats were nearly identical to Diggs' his draft year. Their size, speed, jumping ability are nearly identical. Last season, Shakir's 15.7 yards per catch was 12th in the NFL of wideouts with 30 or more receptions. For comparison purposes, Mike Evans finished 10th in that stat at 15.9 and Justin Jefferson 11th at 15.8 (Davis was 6th at 16.6). Shakir also had 17 20+ yard plays in only 45 targets. To put that number into context, Tyreek Hill lead the NFL with 57 plays of 20+ yards on 171 targets. That's 1 20 yard or longer play for every 3 targets. Shakir's 17 20+ yard plays were 1 on every 2.6 targets. Obvious this is a bit of a small sample size, but it does get one thinking. Now add in that management spent their biggest FA contract on a slot receiver (Samuel) and this scenario begins to gain some traction. Now add that management moved a guard to center, so is it really so far fetched to think they might move a receiver from the slot to the boundary, especially with Samuel and Kincaid to patrol the interior? I'll add two other pieces of data in support of this scenario: 1. Beane has never drafted a WR in the 1st 3 rounds of a draft; 2. McD/Beane hate starting rookies. We can look to Shakir's usage from year 1 to year 2 to illustrate how Bills management feels about playing most rookies. All that said, I personally believe Beane will break with tradition and draft a WR in the 1st 3 rounds in April, but I do believe that Shakir has a great chance of being the WR2 opening next season. I believe this because Beane is also going to replace Diggs possibly after the 2024 season and certainly after the 2025 season. My guess is in 2026 the starting WR1 and WR2 will be Shakir and whomever we draft in April. As much as I want Thomas or Mitchell in Bills Blue and Red next season, I can see Beane trading back to add the 3rd rd pick traded for Douglas and then utilizing a 2nd rd pick or the new third on the receiver. Guys like Worthy, Legette, Coleman or even Burton or Devontez Walker could be the guys on the radar. FYI: Mitchell 6-2, 205 lbs, 39.5 in vertical, 4.34 in the 40. Walker 6-1.5, 193 lbs, 40.5 in vertical, 4.36 in the 40. Not to be cynical, but the difference between a 1st rd pick and a 2nd rd pick in cap cost is almost $1.3 million.

I sometimes think they approved replay in the first place to sell more ad time.

1. Adonai Mitchell. First of all the kid is named after G-d (Adonai is G-d in Hebrew). That has to count for something. He has played in 5 CFP games and caught a TD in each game. He is tall, fast and is everything this offense needs. 2nd fastest 40 time in the combine among WRs. 10TDS and averaged 15.9 yards per catch last season for the Longhorns 2. Javon Bullard. We need a safety that tackles well, knows how to make the big play, (ask MHJr how hard he plays and hits) and can cover a WR. That is Bullard. Defensive MVP in the CFP semi-final (Peach Bowl) and CFP Title game in 2023. QB rating when targeted in coverage last season - 36.6. 3. Sedric Van Pran. We need a long-term starting center. Van Pran started 43 consecutive games at center for UGA. High football IQ, 2nd team all-American, 1st team all-SEC. Captained an offense similar to what Brady wants to run in Buffalo. These three guys also all have a winning pedigree and each has 2 national championship rings.

Yes

Taron Johnson’s extension now in the numbers. $12.5 under the cap before the recent signings. Beane says he has about $8 million.

One of my takeaways from the off-season so far is that Beane does not want to hand a starting job to any rookie. He has brought in enough depth that he can afford to do BPA on his draft board even in the 1st rd. It's hard to ignore that Beane has never drafted a WR in the 1st 3 rounds (Davis was the highest and in the 4th rd) and he has actually never drafted a safety at all. He has drafted many CB's, some of which were converted to safeties (like Hamlin), but never any guys designated as safeties in their draft year according to pro-football reference. I should also be noted the only DB (S or CB) drafted above the 4th round was Elam. For example: We all think (hope, want, expect?) Beane to draft a WR in the 1st round. Personally, I'd love to see any of Mitchell, McConkey, Worthy, Franklin, or Thomas. However, Beane has built in flexibility here. He currently has 5 WRs on the books and only carried 5 last year. Here is a scenario if he doesn't even draft a WR. Diggs is 1, Shakir moves the boundary as the 2, Samuel is the slot, and Hollins and Shorter become the "big" receivers. Maybe Hamler also makes the team as a kick returned and deep threat. This scenario occurred to me when compared Shakir and Digg's combine data. Diggs - 6'0 195, 40 - 4.46, 10 - 1.53, Vertical - 35" , Broad 9'7" Combine Total Score 81; Prospect Grade 6.10 (Draft 5th rd by Minn) https://www.nfl.com/prospects/stefon-diggs/32004449-4721-8895-fc23-d2bf4c921bd4 Shakir - 6'0 196, 40- 4.43, 10 - 1.49, Vertical 34.5, Broad 10'4" Combine Total Score 78, Prospect grade 6.18 (Draft 5th rd by Buf) https://www.nfl.com/prospects/khalil-shakir/32005348-4110-7427-f34a-bb0aa1d8e556 After looking at how similar their combine scores were, with Shakir being the slightly faster and higher grades prospect, I realized if Diggs could excel outside, why couldn't Shakir?

I’d give Beane a solid B for this off-season so far. He was facing a huge uphill battle to get under the cap (a problem of his own making). However, with a little help from the NFL, Miller and Knox he managed to get the job done with minimal damage to the starting group. With the retention of Jones and Epenesa, Beane brings back 17 of 22 starters on O & D. On offense starts Morse and Davis depart and on defense Hyde, Poyer and Floyd depart, but Floyd is replaced by Espenesa. Reviewing the major areas of change: OL - Out with Morse and Bates. In with the Clapp. McGovern moves to center and Edwards moves to from back up guard to starter. The line was a major strength last year and could be again if McGovern can replace Morse effectively. WR - Out with Davis, Harry and Sherfield. In with Hollins and Samuel. Samuel and Hollins are upgrades over Harty and Sherfield, but neither stretches the field nor are they a replacement for Davis. Samuel is a slot receiver whose numbers, such as Yards/catch, catch%, YAC/catch, and explosive plays, are all inferior to the slot receiver we already have in Shakir. When they draft a boundary receiver, Samuel will ultimately be relegated to our 5th best receiving option. Not sure spending $8 million on the 5th option is a wise cap decision. That said this group is deeper and more talented than last year. D Line - Out - Floyd, Settle, Ford, Phillips and Lawson. In - Johnson and Toohill. Obviously, we are still down a few players and this is where the biggest questions lie. Can Miller, Epenesa or a draft pick step-up to replace the loss of Floyd? Can Jones stay healthy? If the answers are yes, then the line will be fine. I’m also interested to see what Jonathan can do. Safety - Out with Hyde (?) and Poyer. In with Edwards. Rapp becomes a starter. Going from aging stars Poyer and Hyde to Rapp and Edwards is a downgrade. Beane says he’s open to Hyde returning. I’d be happier with a stud early in the draft like Bullard, Bullock, Kinchens, or Hicks. Beane needs to invest here finally. Overall the two lines and the safeties have been downgraded on paper this off-season, but I’m not overly concerned about the lines. The safeties do concern me. Edwards and Rapp only played 50% of their team’s snaps last season for a reason. Each guy only started because of injuries and neither graded out all that well. PFF graded both at 56.5 & 56.4 respectively. Only the WR group has been upgraded, but not in the area of greatest need. The bottomline is with the starters mostly intact, the team will be very good assuming they stay healthy. The offense should be more dynamic with Samuel and assuming they draft a deep threat. Hopefully Miller, Epenesa and Jonathan step up on the D line to actually make it as effective as last year and that McGovern plays as well as Morse did to anchor the OLine.

Isn’t that what Samuel, Shakir and Diggs basically are? I love Ladd the player. As a GA fan he and Bowers drove teams crazy. He has speed, good hands, knows how to get open and was lined up anywhere. He was amazing at finding seams in the defense and then blowing by the DB or LB for 40 yards. Ladd has a habit of making DB’s look foolish, as he did at the Senior Bowl. All that said, I still want ex-Dawg Adonai Mitchell. He just knows how to make big time plays. He’s kind of a bigger faster version of Ladd.

Roster spots are going to be hard to come by for rookies and players on futures deals. With the addition of A. Johnson (1yr 3.5 million) on the DL, 44 jobs are now taken my vets. Did we really need the Clapp when signing so many Johnsons?

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/buffalo-bills/austin-johnson-18992/ Bills at DL depth with former Charger starter Austin Johnson. 1 year $3.5 million. Cap Hit TBD.

Do people here know that Rousseau played out of position last year because of Floyd and Miller and still graded out at one of the top Bills players last year? Rousseau was given an 3.32 (out of 4) by the Athletic and an 85.6 (out of 100) by PFF. While we could use a long-term replacement for Miller in the draft, Rousseau is not the issue.

While I disagree with much of the OP, there is definitely a case for trading down. The Bills are in desperate need of youth and cheap talent. The only place to get young cheap talent is in the draft. Right now we only have two picks in the top 100. We need at least 3-4 picks in the top 100 to help replenish this roster longterm. We also have a myriad of needs that need to be filled. 1. We don’t have any WRs who stretch the field 2. We need a future starter and better depth at safety. 3. We need a replacement for Miller 4. We need DT depth 5. We need a 3rd RB 6. We need a longterm replacement for Douglas at CB 7. We may need a replacement for Brown at OT and Van Denmark isn’t adequate depth Remember McD doesn’t like starting rookies. He likes to rotate them in to gain experience. The Douglas, Miller and Safety starter replacements should all come from this draft. My hope is Mitchell falls to us at 28. He gives speed, size and big play ability. (5 TDs in 5 CFP games in college). If not then trade down with Det, SF or Balt to get extra assets. Use these new assets plus our other 10 picks to maneuver back into the third round. I’m hoping for 6 roster players from this draft.

Updated Roster using a 51 man roster: Starters in Bold Offense 20 of 23 players (roster allocation to the position from 2023 in (x)). QB (2) - current 2: Allen & Trubisky RB/FB (4) - current 3: Cook, Johnson & Gilliam TE (3) - current 3: Kincaid, Knox, Morris WR (5) - current 4: Diggs, Shakir, Samuel, & Hollins (Shorter, Hamler & Isabella in the mix) Oline (9) - current 8: Brown, Dawkins, McGovern, Torrence, Edwards, Clapp, Anderson & Van Denmark (Doyle still in the mix) Defense 21 of 25 players Dline (10) - Current 8 - Jones, Oliver, Rousseau, Miller, Jonathan, Epenesa, A. Johnson & Toohill (Cline and Ankou also in the mix) LBs (5) - current 5 - Milano, Benard, Williams, Morrow, & Spector CB (6) - current 5 - Johnson, Douglas, Benford, Elam & Lewis (S) S (4) - Current 3 - Rapp, Edwards, & Hamlin Specialists 4 of 3 slots - Bass (PK), Ferguson (LS), Martin (P) & Haack (P) - one of Haack or Martin aren't going to make the team. Looks like there are 7 jobs still available - 1 RB, 1 WR, 1 OL, 2 DL, 1 CB & 1 S. Beane keeps adding more 1 year depth (Edwards, Clapp, Toohill, Morrow, Ty Johnson, A Johnson and Hollins to name 7). He still has about $5-6 million in current cap, plus White's 10 mill in June to work with. He also is interviewing D Lineman and I expect at least one more signing there. (Signed Austin Johnson on 3/23). My guess is down to 4-6 of these jobs going to draft picks (WR, S, CB, RB, 1DL?). It looks like we are down to only 1 maybe 2 starting jobs available - WR2 and maybe S. Even with the signing of Edwards, Safety looks like the worst group position on the team with Rapp & Edwards as possible starters and Lewis and Hamlin as the depth. Also need 2 players on the DL, including at least 1 DTs. Updated 3/24 to reflect A. Johnson signing

Clapp added to OP.

I thought i'd bump this thread. We have signed 2 WRs (Samuel 3 years, Hollins 1yr), 2 Safeties (Rapp 3 years & Edwards 1 year) and re-signed 2 key DL in Jones (2 years) and Epenesa (2 years). We also extended Dawkins and T Johnson. Key players on one year deals: Douglas (CB), Brown (DT). Keys Players who could be cut after 2024: Diggs (WR) and Miller (Edge). So far, Ty Johnson is the only RB behind Cook Given this back drop what positions will the Bills target? WR - This still has to be the highest priority even with 5 WRs currently on the roster. Hollins is more a special teams players and we have no one to stretch the field. 1st pick. Mitchel, Thomas, Coleman, Worthy, McConkey and even Burton interest me here S - Neither Rapp or Edwards were starters last year and both played about 50% of their team's downs last season. This is the weakest area on the team and the draft is full of safeties. Edwards shares his job last year with a younger player (Cook) in KC, I don't see a reason McD won't do the same with a high drafted rookie. 2nd or 3rd rd (if we get one). Bullard, Bullock, Brade, Hicks, Kinchens, etc.... Tons of choice. Later round sleeper - Tykee Smith Edge - Miller is likely gone after next season. This creates an opportunity to draft a kid now and develop him into a starter. They like Jonathan, but enough not to draft another player? Kamara, Kneeland & Eboigde DT - Depth is the key here and we don't have much behind Oliver and Jones and Jones spent much of the last year injured. Sweat, Hall, Fiske, Wingo OT - Depends on what they think about Van Denmark and the ability to afford to keep Brown. Rosengarten mid to late looks very interesting. OG/C - Torrence is young. Edwards was re-signed for two years. Anderson is already on the roster. Looks fine so far, but what if the McGovern to center experiment doesn't work or Edwards gets caved at guard as a starter? I think they need more depth here. Van Pran, Bortolini, Nugent CB - Douglas is the key. I was surprised they didn't extend him contract this off-season. That means either they think Elam can take over long-term or they need to draft a long-term replacement. RB - Cook, Johnson (1 yr deal) and ........? Beane will be drafting a RB. Kendall Milton late? LB - I think we are set here. QB - Once they signed Trubisky for two years, I guess they'll look at QB in 2025. TE - Doubt it.

There is a Bama DE, Justin Eboigbe who might be a great pick up at around 128. Also Burton, WR could be a target if Beane moves back into the 3rd round.

According to Pro-football reference, Edwards played 57% of KC's D snaps. He is listed as a FS. His cap hit last season was $3 million.

I have added Edwards to the OP. I've been trying to reconcile Spotrac and Over the Cap with little luck. Over the Cap does have us with about 200K more dead cap than Spotrac. So far, this is what I've determined. Spotrac has an additional approx $1 mill in the adjusted cap figure higher than Over the Cap. They also have 100 K higher listed cap hits by allocating a small amount to the cap for players under contract who aren't in the top 51. Over the cap seems to allocate a dead cap amount for these players as their Dead Cap number is about 200K higher than Spotrac's. No idea which site is utilizing the correct formula for adjusted cap and dead cap.

I was reading a review of the Bills off-season. The guy lost me when he said Samuel was a Davis replacement. If you are going to write and article about the Bills, it seems to me you should know that Samuel is not a replacement for Davis. He isn't a boundary receiver. If anything he is the new slot receiver and Shakir is being moved outside. The truth is the new boundary receiver is probably going to be an early round draft pick. My guess is some like Worthy or Legette in the second round. The question is how soon Brady incorporates the early draft pick into the offense. My guess is that the kid will force Brady's hand because he'll be the only true vertical/deep threat in the offense. If you look at how Brady coached at LSU and Carolina, the two boundary WRs received most of the targets, but he never had a TE like he now has with Kincaid. I see the Bills passing more next season, but many of these passes to Cook and Samuel as run substitutes such as a variety of screen plays and checkdowns. I'm think we'll see a continued decrease in Allen running plays, except in the red zone. We'll also see much less of Diggs this season. The funny thing is that I see his catch rate increasing which will keep him as an over 1000 yard receiver, despite a 20% drop in targets from 160 to 130 or less. Last year the targets (out of 545) were Diggs 160, Kincaid 91, Davis 81, Cook 54, Shakir 45, Knox 36, Other RBs 32, Other WR 43s & Morris 1. Next season I'm seeing Diggs at 125, Kincaid 120, Shakir 80, Samuel 70, Cook 60, Rookie WR 45, Knox 35, Hollins 25, others (Morris and Johnson) 15. Note: Pass Attempts were 579 and targets 545. I assume the rest to be Ints and throwaways.

The Bills have signed Casey Toohill to a one year deal. Pass rush depth signing.

After watching Beane work his magic, I'm not to worried about 2025 and the cap unless the NFL's income goes down drastically. If you cut Diggs and Miller after this season, you'd take and 38 Million dead cap hit, but save $12 million over the combine $50 cap hit. I'm sure Beane already has a plan in place, but I agree there doesn't seem to be as many obvious places to find cap help.

The Bills have 40 of the 50 roster spots on offense and defense already spoken for. Of these 40, Shorter, Doyle, Hamlin, seem the most vulnerable to losing their jobs. It would seem that this would be a great year to stock up on cheap talent through the draft especially given the depth in this draft at safety and receiver. We have needs for a speed WR, a high-end safety, a depth safety, more help at DT, a RB, a CB, maybe a P, and even a couple of O linemen. Sadly, I don’t see Beane making 11 picks. I see him using his picks to get back into the 3rd round. I agree with other posters that a trade down from 28 to the early second should garner a 3rd pick. However, I want to stay ahead of KC in the first. I see them taking a WR to pair with Rice and I don’t want them to choose a receiver before we do. If Mitchell and/or Thomas are around late in the 1st, I think Beane has to take one. I really want Mitchell. Rare size and speed combo. Overall I see Beane making 7-8 picks, with possibly all 7-8 making the team. Last year, the Bills made 6 picks. The top 3 made the team (including 2 starters), Shorter spent the year on IR and the 2 7th rd picks ended up on the PS before being claimed by other teams.