GASabresIUFan

That doesn’t work. If you were 4 million over add another 4 million and then removes 16.7, you should then be 8.7 to the good not just 800k. We are missing something else they did.

Math seems weird. I thought they had us at 4 million over before accounting for AJ. Now they account for AJ and his 3.94 cap hit and the overage goes down by 3 million? Weird. I could have read it wrong. Maybe it was 4 million under.

Given AJ’s contract, I figure the Bills are about 5.66 over the cap before factoring in Jones, Lewis, Dawkins and Knox. If Lewis is about 1.5 and Jones about 6, that puts us at 13.16 over. Most of that will probably be erased by the Dawkins extension and Knox pay cut, but it looks like there is still some work to do by tomorrow. My guess is an extension for Johnson and maybe a restructure for Oliver or Milano. I can also see Gilliam getting cut.

The $4 million over is net of Josh's restructure. Sorry.

I do have concerns about him being an effective 17 game starter. There were times last year where he was a head hunter and missed tackles because of it (and got a few bad penalties). His grades last year by both the Athletic and PFF were not great. In fact, of the 36 Bills who played 200 or more snaps on either D or O, Rapp was 31st according to the Athletic. They gave him a 2.5 grade out of 4 and PFF gave him a 56 out of 100.

I doubt it. He only played 144 snaps on defense last year (13.4%). By comparison Rapp played 421 (39.3%). Dane Jackson played 463 (43.2%). Hamlin played only 17 snaps total, which is why I think he won't make the team. Lewis is fine for emergency use, but isn't stepping in for anyone long-term.

We have more than one safety hole. Rapp was signed and Hamlin is on the roster, but there is a real chance he doesn't make the team. We need another starter and one or two players behind the starters who can develop and be ready to take over starters jobs in a year or two.

DT likely moves to an early day 3 slot. Looks like WR and Safety are the most pressing needs and that matches where the depth in this draft is.

Jones re-signs. That's great news. Only starters left to find are a boundary WR and a Safety. Interesting that of the Group 6 players people here wanted re-signed a fair number have returned in Jones, Epenesa, Edwards, Rapp, Morris and Lewis. I listed 11 players in that group. 6 have re-signed and only Floyd has gone elsewhere.

Wow, that's great news.

No but with Milano, Benard, Williams and Spector under contract it is doubtful (but not impossible) that they are going to bring him back.

Over the cap hasn't updated anything.

After the giant cap dump of White, Poyer, Morse, Bates (trade), Harty, and Hines coupled with the loss of Davis, Dobson, Floyd and possibly Jones to free agency it was pretty clear the Bills were going younger and cheaper for this coming season. Thank G-d. However the moves created roster holes at C, 2 starting safeties, Edge rusher, DT and boundary WR, among other depth issues. With 11 draft picks, you have to figure that much of the needed depth was going to through the draft. Add that both OTs were on one year deals, and 2 of the 3 starting CBs are on one year deals, you start to get a feel for where our draft priorities maybe. However, Beane has already erased many of the starting needs by moving McGovern to center and re-signing Edwards to replace McGovern at guard. He has extended Dawkins to lock one of the two starting OTs. He has also re-signed Rapp and Epenesa to fill starter openings at S and Edge. These moves leave one starting safety job open and one starting DT still available. He also re-signed Trubisky to be Josh's backup for the next two years. Besides the two D starters, what these moves haven't done yet is fill the depth needs at RB, or finding at boundary WR, or added further depth along the D Line. How do these moves affect the draft? One note: Losing the 3rd rd comp pick is a real kick in the ........ I wouldn't be surprised to see Beane use some picks to get back into the 3rd round. QB - I can see a QB drafted late to serve as a developmental player. RB - Beane likes to draft RBs and there are some interesting RBs who will be available on day 3. I'd also still like to see Ty Johnson return. WR - I don't see Davis' replacement coming through free agency. I expect our 1st pick to be a WR. I'm also hoping they take another guy late, but that may depend on how they feel about Shorter. OL - I thought center was going to be a sneaky need, but now we could see an OG earlier than thought to compete with Edwards for the starting job. I can also see a developmental OT on day 3 especially if they aren't happy with Doyle, Anderson or Van Denmark long-term. DL - The Epenesa signing gives us 5 DL heading into next season in Oliver, Rosseau, Miller, Espensa, and Jonathan. I think they like Cline as well. Still that's 3 short of the team's needs. I'm expecting at least one DT and one Edge player in the draft, as well as another FA or two. Re-signing Jones or finding a FA replacement has to be a priority as Beane and McD like to rotate rookies in on the Dline. LB - We need a late round guy to play special teams. CB - Lewis is a special teamer and I think they have hopes Elam improves enough to take over for Douglas in a year. Still Johnson is still on the last year of his deal and we need at least one developmental player in case Johnson leaves and/or Elam doesn't develop S - I'd like to see two guys If I had to guess right now. (No idea after that) 28 - WR - Mitchell, Thomas, McConkey etc... 60 - S - Bullard, Kitchens, Bullock 127 133 143 159 162 188 199 203 248

Spotrac has us over by 4,218,171 after Josh's restructure, but before the Dawkin's extension, the Knox pay cut, and the re-signing of Lewis, Morris and Epenesa. We know Lewis' deal is 2 years for 4 million, but don't know the cap structure. Morris is 985K, and my guess is the cap is the same. Epenesa is a two year deal worth up to $20 mill with incentives and a base of $7 million in year 1. the cap structure is still unknown. The deal seems expensive to me.

How do you really feel?

With the re-signings of Lewis and Epenesa the defense is rounding out. Getting AJ back is a huge boost to the defense. He was one of the guys who steadily improved over the course of the season. Still need at least 2 safeties, a DT (or 2) and one more edge rusher.

People are complaining about a lack of "elite" talent on the Bills and then turn around and want to replace Davis with a retread. No, just No! I don't want to waste a single cap $ on any FA WRs. We have Diggs and with the development of Shakir, Cook and Kincaid, plus a healthy Knox, the 2nd boundary receiver might be Josh's 6th most popular target. Why waste cap $ there? Get a couple WRs in the draft; one early and one late, and let the chips fall where they may.

This is going to be a long day 1) Knox rework - term TBD 2) Dawkins extension - 3 years 60.5 million - cap change TBD

I love Bowers. As a UGA season ticket holder, I've seen him play many many times. However, we have Kincaid, who is a wonderful TE. No need to draft Bowers if you already have Kincaid. Now if we trade Kincaid, then..........

The Bills have 243 million invested in 35 players so far (this is net of White’s June 1 release) not including futures contracts. They lack starters at safety and along the D Line and at WR. Even if the WR comes from the draft, Beane is going to get vet help at Safety and D Line. 12 million isn’t enough to complete the roster. We are also still over the cap for Mar 13 purposes. Something has to give. Maybe we don’t have to do all of Josh’s possible 23 million, especially if Beane makes other cap related moves, such as a Dawkins extension or Knox restructure, but some of Josh’s salary will almost certainly have to be reclassified to a bonus.

So does Buffalo have elite talent? 1. QB - Josh, check 2. RB - Cook, finished 4th in the NFL in rushing, and was 3rd among RBs in total yards from scrimmage. That's pretty elite. He would have been 2nd if MCD didn't stupidly bench him for most of a game. 3. Diggs - I know people are down on Diggs, but he finished 6th in receptions and 13th in yards among WRs in 2023. I'm expecting a big "comeback" season once Beane gets him some boundary help this offseason. 4. Kincaid - As a rookie, he was 7th in receptions and 10th in yard among TE. Not elite numbers yet, but should be top 5 next year 5. Dawkins - How do you quantify how good he is and what he means to Josh and the Bills? 6. Milano - If healthy, he is one of the elite LB's in the NFL. 7. Benard - He was 12th in the NFL last season in tackles (solo and assisted) with 143 as a 1st year starter. 8. Oliver - Just read a description of him as one of the most dangerous interior rush D lineman in the NFL. That sounds pretty elite. That's a pretty good core group to work with. What will Benford and Torrence be with a few more years of experience?

Depends on the contract.

Of course he can. It would be kind of stupid. He wants to win, and without his 23 million, his team will have no depth and lousy starters on defense.

I'm surprised we haven't really seen really any movement in the cap the last few days. Spotrac has us at 12,481,829 over the cap. Once Haack gets added, that will increase overage by about 188K as Haack replaces Williamson in the top 51. I wanted to try to guestimate how Beane looks at our roster. So, I created a June 1 calculation spreadsheet with the 35 players under contract who are most likely to be on the opening day roster. That number with almost $30 million in dead cap is $243,717,329. The player breakdown is as follows: Specialists (4) Ferguson, Bass, Haack and Martin Offense (17) QB - Allen & Trubisky RB/RB - Cook & Gilliam TE - Kincaid, Knox, Morris WR - Diggs, Shakir, Shorter OL - Dawkins, Brown, Edwards, McGovern, Torrence, Anderson & Van Demark Defense (14) DL - Rousseau, Oliver, Miller, Jonathan LB - Milano, Williams, Benard, Spector CB - Benford, Douglas, T Johnson, Elam S- Rapp, Hamlin For another $4.1 you can also add Doyle (OT), Hamler (WR) and Ankou & Cline (DL)

Another couple of favorites are Atlanta airport related. I meet OJ on the tram (before he killed Nicole) in the Atlanta airport. He was lost and couldn't find his gate. I escorted him to his gate and he signed my ticket. Another time, I boarded a flight and Leon Seals was in the row next to my mine. Dr. Sack signed my boarding pass.