GASabresIUFan

I hope everyone is happy, the Bills signed a veteran WR!

Shakir was a 5th rd pick. Davis a 4th. Puca Nacua was a 5th rd pick last year. So yes, why not? We paid nearly $5 mill to the vet no. 5 WR last season and received 15 catches for 150 yards for our efforts. Sherfield played 34% and only gave us 22 catches for 86 yards. I'd say he didn't earn his 1.7 million. My guess is Shorter gets us 3 times that number for 1/2 the money. Even high end FA WRs are also a 50/50 proposition at best. Last year ODJ was paid $15 million for caught 35 balls for 565 yards. Lazard was give a 4 year deal for $44 million and caught 23 for 311. JuJu was paid 8.6 for 29 catches & 260 yards. Out of the top 10 FAs that changed teams only 4 gave their teams any value. Thielen ($8.3) 103 for 1014 was the best, Slayton ($6) 50 for 770. Meyers ($11) 71 for 807 and Hopkins ($13) 75 for 1057. Harty was the 10th highest paid FA WR last season. The No 11 Parris Campbell ($4.7) caught 20 balls for 104 yards. A few weeks ago I researched how WRs drafted 20 -40 do their first year and they averaged about 700 yards as rookies. Give me the rookie to replace Davis, and I'm just fine with Shorter replacing Sherfield and another later pick or Hamler/Isabella replacing Harty. If you want to take a flyer on a cheap vet, I'd give Mecole Hardman a shot. Last I looked he has a couple of Super Bowl rings and caught the game winning catch this year.

Why invest a 1st rd pick in a talented WR not to play him? That's what we'd be doing if we invest Big $ in a FA WR. Last season our No. 4 WR played 33.68% of the downs and the 5th WR 13.32%. On the other hand Diggs played 81.5%, Davis 83% and Shakir 52%. Kincaid also played 60%. Shakir and Kincaid will see they % increase next season. I'd argue that after Diggs, Kincaid is now the No. 2 receiver. KC's no. 1 receiver was a rookie drafted 55th. After his 900+ yards and Kelce's 900+ yards, their next best receiver was a journeyman pro with 460 yards. GB's Top 4 WRs and top 2 TES were all 1st and 2nd year players and that didn't hold them back. WR's and RBs are the most plug and play positions in the NFL. We have tons of experience in Diggs and Knox. Shakir is a 3rd year player. We really don't need some "veteran" to win. Draft a WR early and let him replace Davis. We have enough experience everywhere else. Save the money, we can afford the risk.

Why is that even necessary? Why spend money on a retread WR when you can draft as good and possibly better player with your 28th pick in a deep WR draft for 1/3rd the price. The goal this off-season is to get younger and cheaper, but at WR it's also a goal to upgrade the talent. Adding an injury prone 600 yard receiver for $10 mill is a huge waste of resources, especially when that 2nd boundary position could be Josh's 6th most popular target behind Diggs, Kincaid, Shakir, Knox and Cook. Sorry, I just don't see the need for big $ FA help at WR.

Don't expect any major money invested here. When guys like Mooney are getting $10+ a year, Beane is going to stay far far away.

Given Beane’s draft history it’s doubtful he makes 11 picks. Even if he makes 11 picks, it’s going to be hard for all 11 to make the team. Even if they don’t make the team, odds favor the guys ending up on the practice squad. Don’t forget that in addition to the 39 guys I referenced there are another 18 guys on reserve/futures contracts. Now add the draftees plus some UDFAs and camp invites there will be 40-50 guys competing for those 13 jobs and 12 practice squad slots. Last season of our 6 draftees, 3 made the team, 1 ended up on IR and the 2 7th rd guys ended up on the practice squad. Both those guys were eventually claimed by other teams.

I think that's a good thing. This roster needed to get younger and cheaper. It also needed player who weren't mostly special teams specialists like Neal & Matakevich. I also think we needed youth on the field to develop properly long-term. Giving snaps to the Matakevich's of the world doesn't help Ankou or Cline or Spector get any better IMHO.

With the signing of Morrow, the team breakdown now looks as follows (not including futures/reserve players Total current players = Offense 17 of 23 players (roster allocation to the position from 2023 in (x)). QB (2) - current 2: Allen & Trubisky RB/FB (4) - current 2: Cook & Gilliam TE (3) - current 3: Kincaid, Knox, Morris WR (5) - current 3: Diggs, Shakir, & Shorter Oline (9) - current 7: Brown, Dawkins, McGovern, Torrence, Edwards, Anderson & Van Denmark (Doyle still in the mix) Defense 18 of 25 players Dline (10) - Current 6 - Jones, Oliver, Rousseau, Miller, Jonathan, & Epenesa (Cline and Ankou also in the mix) LBs (5) - current 5 - Milano, Benard, Williams, Morrow, & Spector CB (6) - current 4 - Johnson, Douglas, Benford, & Elam S (4) - Current 3 - Rapp, Hamlin, & Lewis (CB) Specialists 4 of 3 slots - Bass (PK), Ferguson (LS), Martin (P) & Haack (P) - one of Haack or Martin aren't going to make the team. Looks like there are 13 jobs still available - 2 RB, 2 WR, 2 OL, 4 DL, 2 CB & 1 S. My guess is 6-7 of these jobs will go to draft picks (WR, S, CB, OL, RB, 2DL?). Still hopeful Ty Johnson returns at RB.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/buf/2023-snap-counts.htm Benard 999 (93.19%) Dodson 549 (51.21%) Milano 211 (19.68%) Williams 211 (19.68%) Spector 25 (2.33%) Matakevich 16 (1.49%)

Really interesting signing. I guess that means the Spector is going to be the primary LB on Special Teams. I suppose he is Milano health insurance? I guess we can scratch LB depth off the draft list.

I'm sure front offices project everything. Assets are assets after all and draft picks are players and the higher the pick, usually the better the player. My guess is they figured they'd get a 3rd compensatory and therefore giving up a 3rd for Douglas was well worth it. Getting a pick, 40 picks later has to be a disappointment.

I was annoyed at spotrac, so I did a cap calculation with 6 million allocated to Jones and 1.5 to Lewis, but without deducting for Dawkins and Knox and we are approximately 5 million over. Given that calculation and assuming Knox and Dawkins save us at least $6 million we are probably good unless we sign someone else. Spotrac estimates over 11 million for our draft picks, but only a 6.7 million cap hit in our top 51. Not sure when that cap has to be available.

That doesn’t work. If you were 4 million over add another 4 million and then removes 16.7, you should then be 8.7 to the good not just 800k. We are missing something else they did.

Math seems weird. I thought they had us at 4 million over before accounting for AJ. Now they account for AJ and his 3.94 cap hit and the overage goes down by 3 million? Weird. I could have read it wrong. Maybe it was 4 million under.

Given AJ’s contract, I figure the Bills are about 5.66 over the cap before factoring in Jones, Lewis, Dawkins and Knox. If Lewis is about 1.5 and Jones about 6, that puts us at 13.16 over. Most of that will probably be erased by the Dawkins extension and Knox pay cut, but it looks like there is still some work to do by tomorrow. My guess is an extension for Johnson and maybe a restructure for Oliver or Milano. I can also see Gilliam getting cut.

The $4 million over is net of Josh's restructure. Sorry.

I do have concerns about him being an effective 17 game starter. There were times last year where he was a head hunter and missed tackles because of it (and got a few bad penalties). His grades last year by both the Athletic and PFF were not great. In fact, of the 36 Bills who played 200 or more snaps on either D or O, Rapp was 31st according to the Athletic. They gave him a 2.5 grade out of 4 and PFF gave him a 56 out of 100.

I doubt it. He only played 144 snaps on defense last year (13.4%). By comparison Rapp played 421 (39.3%). Dane Jackson played 463 (43.2%). Hamlin played only 17 snaps total, which is why I think he won't make the team. Lewis is fine for emergency use, but isn't stepping in for anyone long-term.

We have more than one safety hole. Rapp was signed and Hamlin is on the roster, but there is a real chance he doesn't make the team. We need another starter and one or two players behind the starters who can develop and be ready to take over starters jobs in a year or two.

DT likely moves to an early day 3 slot. Looks like WR and Safety are the most pressing needs and that matches where the depth in this draft is.

Jones re-signs. That's great news. Only starters left to find are a boundary WR and a Safety. Interesting that of the Group 6 players people here wanted re-signed a fair number have returned in Jones, Epenesa, Edwards, Rapp, Morris and Lewis. I listed 11 players in that group. 6 have re-signed and only Floyd has gone elsewhere.

Wow, that's great news.

No but with Milano, Benard, Williams and Spector under contract it is doubtful (but not impossible) that they are going to bring him back.

Over the cap hasn't updated anything.

After the giant cap dump of White, Poyer, Morse, Bates (trade), Harty, and Hines coupled with the loss of Davis, Dobson, Floyd and possibly Jones to free agency it was pretty clear the Bills were going younger and cheaper for this coming season. Thank G-d. However the moves created roster holes at C, 2 starting safeties, Edge rusher, DT and boundary WR, among other depth issues. With 11 draft picks, you have to figure that much of the needed depth was going to through the draft. Add that both OTs were on one year deals, and 2 of the 3 starting CBs are on one year deals, you start to get a feel for where our draft priorities maybe. However, Beane has already erased many of the starting needs by moving McGovern to center and re-signing Edwards to replace McGovern at guard. He has extended Dawkins to lock one of the two starting OTs. He has also re-signed Rapp and Epenesa to fill starter openings at S and Edge. These moves leave one starting safety job open and one starting DT still available. He also re-signed Trubisky to be Josh's backup for the next two years. Besides the two D starters, what these moves haven't done yet is fill the depth needs at RB, or finding at boundary WR, or added further depth along the D Line. How do these moves affect the draft? One note: Losing the 3rd rd comp pick is a real kick in the ........ I wouldn't be surprised to see Beane use some picks to get back into the 3rd round. QB - I can see a QB drafted late to serve as a developmental player. RB - Beane likes to draft RBs and there are some interesting RBs who will be available on day 3. I'd also still like to see Ty Johnson return. WR - I don't see Davis' replacement coming through free agency. I expect our 1st pick to be a WR. I'm also hoping they take another guy late, but that may depend on how they feel about Shorter. OL - I thought center was going to be a sneaky need, but now we could see an OG earlier than thought to compete with Edwards for the starting job. I can also see a developmental OT on day 3 especially if they aren't happy with Doyle, Anderson or Van Denmark long-term. DL - The Epenesa signing gives us 5 DL heading into next season in Oliver, Rosseau, Miller, Espensa, and Jonathan. I think they like Cline as well. Still that's 3 short of the team's needs. I'm expecting at least one DT and one Edge player in the draft, as well as another FA or two. Re-signing Jones or finding a FA replacement has to be a priority as Beane and McD like to rotate rookies in on the Dline. LB - We need a late round guy to play special teams. CB - Lewis is a special teamer and I think they have hopes Elam improves enough to take over for Douglas in a year. Still Johnson is still on the last year of his deal and we need at least one developmental player in case Johnson leaves and/or Elam doesn't develop S - I'd like to see two guys If I had to guess right now. (No idea after that) 28 - WR - Mitchell, Thomas, McConkey etc... 60 - S - Bullard, Kitchens, Bullock 127 133 143 159 162 188 199 203 248